Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Weather456:


the big problem is, the shear presented in the NHC forecast differs from the shear forecast.



You need to look at similar timeframes, NHC is talking about after 48 hours, your graph is 144 hours (outside NHC forecast timeframe).
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Quoting StormW:
Unless this changes, and based on the NHC track, I have no idea why they are mentioning shear.



Exactly
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OPEN COMMUNICATION TO ALL CONCERNED:

I've decided to go chase Ida, as I need a final chapter for my winter YouTube TV show.

To the XtremeHurricane.com Team: I will be in communication with each of you through the entire duration of this chase, which will officially begin on Saturday, 11/7/2009. PLEASE START SHOOTING VIDEO!

To Everyone Else: The XtremeHurricanes.com live webcam and Remote Hurricane Weather Station will be available for operation should Ida make landfall...so stay tuned for updates. We will give a 2-day announcement for go-live.

Peace out...
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For now its just a wait and see to see whats left of the core once back over water.
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I would assume that the NHC is being speculative until IDA re-enters the Caribbean. There is still a chance, albeit decreasing, that it is destroyed. She won't be moving very fast upon re-entry so, why not let the models hash out some details before jumping the gun.
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Quoting rareaire:
mornin , whew this will be fun!


Not if u are potentially "under the hammer" - no fun at all!
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See what happens when you all say "the seasons over"? You get payback from Mother Nature LOL!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7432
Quoting Floodman:


Conch, you and rare need to pack a bag and make sure the ride is ready...call me later


Marvin has a hug comin...dont forget, and before we do anything, you & Mrs Flood will join us for steak :)
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Go to the shear map, you can actually see the wind shear decreasing north of Ida as Ida moves north, due to a developing large anticyclone, this is not good.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7432
Quoting ConchHondros:


I know...pumpkin spice 1st, nerd spanking 2nd...then, after I load my gun...I will go do your wobly repo


Conch, you and rare need to pack a bag and make sure the ride is ready...call me later
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Quoting Floodman:


It's never over until it's over...that's why the people here that know anything about the tropics get so aggravated with the trolls that come in and say "The season's over"


How can anyone state that the hurricane season is over prior to November 30? Isn't there a reason why it goes until November? Hey I know because hurricanes do occur in November , what a flippin thought!. RIDICULOUS. Just like the weather channel pulling the tropical updates.
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Blog Update

Looks like it will be an interesting next couple of days :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26512
Quoting scottsvb:
Dumb and Dumber Questions in the forum:

1. What are the chances of IDA being a Cat 3 or
higher and in 6 days where will landfall be?

2. Once it makes landfall in 6 days..do you
think there is a chance for it to ride up
the coast @ hit North Car or New England in
10-14 days?

3. After that, what do you think the chances
are Sir that it may make it to England in
16-21 days? How strong do you think?

4. After crossing the english channel, what
are the chances this makes it all the way
to Leningrad?

Then after the 1st question doesnt come true.... they will come back and complain that you said this and that.... but then 1 week later after another system starts to develop...

Hey Sir.. sorry about my rant last week... what do you think the chances are for this hitting florida or making it into the GOM in 6-7 days?

Arghhhh Dumb and Dumber!


You, sir, have made a couple of the best posts so far today.

I know it doesn't do any good because the guys that ask those questions never read the backblog, but here it is n a nutshell:

No idea whether or not this thing will make landfall in the CONUS, or anywhere else for that matter

No idea how strong it will be this far out

We do know that it is interacting with Nicaraugua
We do know that it will make it back over water sometime today
We do know that it will likely re-strengthen once ot gets back out over water

We also know that there will be those here that have no patience, no idea how to read a chart and certainly no ability to just shut up and wait to see what happens next
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Quoting rareaire:
ok time to gt to work, Conch you got a wobbly calling your name. ill check in later once we the doc lays on some wisdom....


I know...pumpkin spice 1st, nerd spanking 2nd...then, after I load my gun...I will go do your wobly repo
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Quoting mossyhead:
Right now there is moderate shear in the nw Caribbean. The key is will it be there when Ida(if it is still alive), emerges back over water. It is a small system and it will not take much to disrupt it.


the big problem is, the shear presented in the NHC forecast differs from the shear forecast.

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1203. Ossqss
Ida's cloud mass seems to be growing to the North and East. Would that not be indicative of the storm pulling more North and less inland than currently projected?
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1202. NEwxguy
Track is going to be hard to nail down,models keep shifting from day to day,will have to wait and see what shape Ida is in when it reemerges,I think this weekend will be important as to track.
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Quoting IKE:
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER WATER. THERE
REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE
FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND.


I don't recall them mentioning a problem with shear before.
Right now there is moderate shear in the nw Caribbean. The key is will it be there when Ida(if it is still alive), emerges back over water. It is a small system and it will not take much to disrupt it.
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1200. 786
I gotta ask, I know we are outta the cone but does anyone believe there is a serious potential threat to Grand Cayman? looks like the set movement will take it well West of us and at this point it would have to move NE to threaten us which I do not believe is possible at this point...but would love some insight to pass along.
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I bet flood knows...
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Quoting scottsvb:



There is no threat to FL or anywhere in the GOM at this time... they say that for ratings. Until this comes out into the NW carribean and if this redevelops...then we can speculate...but for all we know this weakens down to a TD by tomorrow...exits further west and then goes into Belieze and gets absorbed into the extra tropical low in the SW GOM.


why are you ranting like this. We heard you the first time.
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ok time to gt to work, Conch you got a wobbly calling your name. ill check in later once we the doc lays on some wisdom....
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS FEATURING HURRICANE IDA NOVEMBER 05, 2009 ISSUED 7:30 a.m.

Thanks Storm - great update...just wish you didn't have to have the "if's" :)
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
No Problem
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1194. WxLogic
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


IDA is expected to be inland at that time so, no recon.

SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W


That's what happens when I scan read... things that I shouldn't be scanning. Thx for that. lol...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
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Quoting StormChaser81:


there just questions, jeez you act like you never asked something stupid in your life. Weather is very complex and most people dont understand its complexity. Thanks for pointing out the obvious.


Just block him and be done with it. :)
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Quoting hurricane23:
Morning...

I urge those on floridas westcoast to keep an eye on hurricane ida during next week or so.I can tell you after looking at models late last night that the 500mb flow will be quite strong early/mid next week and anything that trys to push northward should eventually get kicked out to the NE or ENE. You can already see some models this morning already coming to that solution. GFDL intensity is likely over done but a cat 1-2 cant be ruled with plenty of heat potential there.


Rhut Rho, Adrian's on board, run for the hills.

Morning Adrian, lol, had to.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Dumb and Dumber Questions in the forum:

1. What are the chances of IDA being a Cat 3 or
higher and in 6 days where will landfall be?

2. Once it makes landfall in 6 days..do you
think there is a chance for it to ride up
the coast @ hit North Car or New England in
10-14 days?

3. After that, what do you think the chances
are Sir that it may make it to England in
16-21 days? How strong do you think?

4. After crossing the english channel, what
are the chances this makes it all the way
to Leningrad?

Then after the 1st question doesnt come true.... they will come back and complain that you said this and that.... but then 1 week later after another system starts to develop...

Hey Sir.. sorry about my rant last week... what do you think the chances are for this hitting florida or making it into the GOM in 6-7 days?

Arghhhh Dumb and Dumber!


there just questions, jeez you act like you never asked something stupid in your life. Weather is very complex and most people dont understand its complexity. Thanks for pointing out the obvious.
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1189. WxLogic
Quoting Weather456:


They canceled because Reccons dont fly over storms that are overland.


At least I would have expected something at least on the works after it emerges.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Morning...

I urge those on floridas westcoast to keep an eye on hurricane ida during next week or so.I can tell you after looking at models late last night that the 500mb flow will be quite strong early/mid next week and anything that trys to push northward should eventually get kicked out to the NE or ENE. You can already see some models this morning already coming to that solution. GFDL intensity is likely over done but a cat 1-2 cant be ruled with plenty of heat potential there
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Quoting WxLogic:



IDA is expected to be inland at that time so, no recon.

SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
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We have the NHC showing a TS, models showing a very strong hurricane...quite a significant variation...btw, where are the warm eddy(ies)...doh!
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Quoting WxLogic:
Interesting... NHC updated the HH Schedule. They don't appear to believe there won't be anything left late tomorrow onward.

Today

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST WED 04 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-160

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 05/1230Z
D. 12.7N 83.2W
E. 05/1630Z TO 05/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0311A CYCLONE
C. 06/0030Z
D. 13.0N 83.4W
E. 06/0430Z TO 06/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

Tomorrow:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EST THU 05 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-161

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z


They canceled because Reccons dont fly over storms that are overland.
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.
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Quoting scottsvb:



There is no threat to FL or anywhere in the GOM at this time... they say that for ratings. Until this comes out into the NW carribean and if this redevelops...then we can speculate...but for all we know this weakens down to a TD by tomorrow...exits further west and then goes into Belieze and gets absorbed into the extra tropical low in the SW GOM.
Well, if you don't believe the media because you believe they are just trying to get good ratings, then why don't you check out the National Hurricane Center forecast (not media btw) that forecasts this storm to be a threat to the US?
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mornin , whew this will be fun!
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Quoting zoomiami:


when you say higher angle - what exactly do you mean? I just can't seem to picture what you are talking about.

Thanks


highest angle the storm could cross is 359 degrees or N. The lowest angle the storm could cross is 270 degrees or W. The initial angle was NW at the first advisory. But now the track has shifted and it appears the storm may cross in a NNW heading which is higher angle

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All right yall, she's inland. Time to get some work done, see ya on splash down.
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1177. WxLogic
Interesting... NHC updated the HH Schedule. They don't appear to believe there won't be anything left late tomorrow onward.

Today

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST WED 04 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-160

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 05/1230Z
D. 12.7N 83.2W
E. 05/1630Z TO 05/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0311A CYCLONE
C. 06/0030Z
D. 13.0N 83.4W
E. 06/0430Z TO 06/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

Tomorrow:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EST THU 05 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-161

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE 12 HRLY
FIXES BEGINNING AT 07/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.5W
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS ON IDA FOR 05/1800Z AND
06/0600Z CANCELLED BY NHC AT 05/0845Z
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting RickWPB:
Dr. Steve Lyons on Wx Chnl reported that Ida made landfall 3 hrs ago (showed satellite loops from WI). Still moving NW. Biggest threat to CONUS in his mind was FL.



There is no threat to FL or anywhere in the GOM at this time... they say that for ratings. Until this comes out into the NW carribean and if this redevelops...then we can speculate...but for all we know this weakens down to a TD by tomorrow...exits further west and then goes into Belieze and gets absorbed into the extra tropical low in the SW GOM.
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Quoting Floodman:


It's never over until it's over...that's why the people here that know anything about the tropics get so aggravated with the trolls that come in and say "The season's over"

Amen to that....morning all.
Local weather mets in S LA feel this will get pushed more towards FL or further West. I wish it would avoid all land areas myself
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
Quoting RickWPB:
Dr. Steve Lyons on Wx Chnl reported that Ida made landfall 3 hrs ago (showed satellite loops from WI). Still moving NW. Biggest threat to CONUS in his mind was FL.


I'll have to agree if the track keeps shifting.

But yesterday I stated:

It is still too early give a call on the United States but folks along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas should be prepared for any surprises. If you use my track, Florida would be the target.
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Quoting Weather456:



I am becoming more confident that this system will come in at a higher angle, a much more higher angle than the 1st advisory.

Also the area where Ida is coming in is flat with swamps near the coast.



when you say higher angle - what exactly do you mean? I just can't seem to picture what you are talking about.

Thanks
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The track now has it miss the entire Yucatan penn.
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1170. RickWPB
Dr. Steve Lyons on Wx Chnl reported that Ida made landfall 3 hrs ago (showed satellite loops from WI). Still moving NW. Biggest threat to CONUS in his mind was FL.
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Dumb and Dumber Questions in the forum:

1. What are the chances of IDA being a Cat 3 or
higher and in 6 days where will landfall be?

2. Once it makes landfall in 6 days..do you
think there is a chance for it to ride up
the coast @ hit North Car or New England in
10-14 days?

3. After that, what do you think the chances
are Sir that it may make it to England in
16-21 days? How strong do you think?

4. After crossing the english channel, what
are the chances this makes it all the way
to Leningrad?

Then after the 1st question doesnt come true.... they will come back and complain that you said this and that.... but then 1 week later after another system starts to develop...

Hey Sir.. sorry about my rant last week... what do you think the chances are for this hitting florida or making it into the GOM in 6-7 days?

Arghhhh Dumb and Dumber!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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