Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Weather456, thanks for all your help.

Ditto that...and don't sell yourself short 456. You are a pro. You have the knowledge, and you have the detached non-emotional reasoning a good forecaster needs. You're a big "live help" on this blog.
.
.
One question, concerning that latest GFDL run. That's a run that's got something for everybody. I've never been really clear on the timing of the runs and the data input used. Do you think that this interesting run included the data from the recent intensification? And don't sweat it if you don't immediately know the answer. This question on timing that I've asked over the years is one that nobody has been able to answer definitivly.
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I tell ya ..I learned a lot about the MJO from Skyepony and StormWs posts and Blogs this season.
Definitely a Major Player that I dismissed ,or better yet,..lacked a good understanding of till 09.
Fascinating stuff too.
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very likely that IDA will be a hurricane at the 10 Pm Advisory very very impressive, have we had any new shifts of the models towards the left/right
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3029
Quoting portcharlotte:


How often is this image generated and is it available as a loop? I have not seen much west movement in the last few frames IMO.


The images are available at the NAVY TC website and these images are generated by sensors on a number of polar orbiting satellites. They encircle the earth at least twice a day. They can miss a system or they may catch it..it is the same concept with QS.

You can select a sensor and channel and then click loop at the top of the page. This loops all the passes ever caught in your selection.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
It's amazing how much the Caribbean has moistened with the MJO phase:

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IDA approaching or very near cat 1 hurricane status
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LOL..anytime.

Gumbo good for the soul..
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Quoting Patrap:
Land friction slows the surface winds some,..as discussed below or above,...but of more Important,..in a Classic Landfall,it can and does bring down the Higher Gust's from aloft,to the surface..classic examples are the Large CV storms that cause a lot of Havoc way Inland,100 Plus or More Miles inland as Rita,Ike and of course K showed.
Not so Much in the smaller scale storms as Ida is now.

Also Ida is cruising on a Path that may allow,..and I stress may,..allow her to Keep enough onshore Fetch to sustain a TS Core..


Ohh alright well thanks for helping me even with shrimp gumbo sitting right in front of you XD
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting 786:
From another sire "The front left quadrant is abutting those tall mountains from south to north and so the flow to the west is getting blocked from low to mid-levels. The Radius of Maximum Winds (the core) then begins to follow the path of least resistance, in this case more northward." perhaps his is what she is doing


Thats a good obs as the Last Viz Image showed the west side abutting up against those Mts.

TS IDA Final ViZ Image from 22:45 UTC.Also Note the orographic Lift on the west Side from the Sun Angle .

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Quoting Weather456:
Excellent structure



How often is this image generated and is it available as a loop? I have not seen much west movement in the last few frames IMO.
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409. 786
From another sire "The front left quadrant is abutting those tall mountains from south to north and so the flow to the west is getting blocked from low to mid-levels. The Radius of Maximum Winds (the core) then begins to follow the path of least resistance, in this case more northward." perhaps his is what she is doing
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Land friction slows the surface winds some,..as discussed below or above,...but of more Important,..in a Classic Landfall,it can and does bring down the Higher Gust's from aloft,to the surface..classic examples are the Large CV storms that cause a lot of Havoc way Inland,100 Plus or More Miles inland as Rita,Ike and of course K showed.
Not so Much in the smaller scale storms as Ida is now.

Also Ida is cruising on a Path that may allow,..and I stress may,..allow her to Keep enough onshore Fetch to sustain a TS Core..
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The years of 6 or less storms appears to be over in this decadal period. Even such a year as 2009, we pulled out 9 named storms.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
405. Skyepony (Mod)
mimic on Ida looks to be reforning the eye to the north.
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404. xcool
impressive convection.
very near hurricane intensity
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Quoting Tazmanian:



Please go too the nhc site for thr in fo on how strong the winds are the winds are at 65 mph all so the recon gos back in when it gos back in
Taz, why you dissing me like that. I just want to confirm things. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 82.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 81.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 30NM



Direction has been mostly constant, now at 315 deg, 12 hours ago 309 deg.
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Weather456, thanks for all your help.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
399. Skyepony (Mod)
SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
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GFDL is taking the storm to its MPI
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
A Doom Run for sure,..but also sure to change thru the next 48-72 as Ida has some cards yet to Play..

"Ida Know nothing",,LOL

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Quoting Patrap:
Scuse my typing..with Shrimp Gumbo itas hard to blog while eating...


"Vary" Generalized but post-worthy.




Back to Tropical Cyclones Myths Page

| Back to Main FAQ Page

Subject : C2) Doesn't the friction over land kill tropical cyclones?

(Parts of this section are written by Sim Aberson.)

No. During landfall, the increased friction over land acts - somewhat contradictory - to both decrease the sustained winds and also to increase the gusts felt at the surface (Powell and Houston 1996). The sustained (1 min or longer average) winds are reduced because of the dampening effect of larger roughness over land (i.e. bushes, trees and houses over land versus a relatively smooth ocean). The gusts are stronger because turbulence increases and acts to bring faster winds down to the surface in short (a few seconds) bursts.

However, after just a few hours, a tropical cyclone over land will begin to weaken rapidly - not because of friction - but because the storm lacks the the moisture and heat sources that the ocean provided. This depletion of moisture and heat hurts the tropical cyclone's ability to produce thunderstorms near the storm center. Without this convection,the storm rapidly fills.

An early numerical simulation (Tuleya and Kurihara 1978) had shown that a hurricane making landfall over a very moist region (i.e. mainly swamp) so that surface evaporation is unchanged, intensification may result. However, a more recent study (Tuleya 1994) that has a more realistic treatment of surface conditions found that even over a swampy area a hurricane would weaken because of limited heat sources. Indeed, nature conducted this experiment during Andrew as the hurricane traversed the very wet Everglades, Big Cypress and Corkscrew Swamp areas of southwest Florida. Andrew weakened dramatically: peak winds decreased about 33% and the sea level pressure in the eye rose 19 mb (Powell and Houston 1996).






nice, thanks for all the info :)

still have oneeeee more thing to ask though.

if land friction doesn't kill hurricanes, then what does it do, if anything?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
395. flsky
Anything less than a Cat 3 would be great flowing (quickly )up the Florida peninsula. We've just started our dry season and we're heading into drought already.
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Outflow improving to the SW, and she IS pulling in some Pac moisture at the lower levels now.
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Quoting JupiterFL:
Wow that 18Z GFDL is pretty intense. Hope that doesn't pan out for someone on here.



jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez
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Remember that storms tend to get "caught" on the coast and turn inland due to friction with the terrain. It is highly unlikely it will make it past the without turning inland at least some.
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391. Skyepony (Mod)


I think they are starting fixes every 12hrs
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
URNT12 KNHC 042201
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 04/21:44:50Z
B. 12 deg 02 min N
082 deg 43 min W
C. 925 mb 657 m
D. 34 kt
E. 170 deg 14 nm
F. 258 deg 40 kt
G. 169 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 21 C / 755 m
J. 24 C / 769 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:44:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 75 KT N QUAD 21:48:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;
Please tell me what on this tells the actual strength of the storm and when does recon go back.



Please go too the nhc site for thr in fo on how strong the winds are the winds are at 65 mph all so the recon gos back in when it gos back in
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AL 11 2009110500 BEST 0 123N 828W 55 995 TS
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Quoting stormsurge39:
On the NHC animated SAT pic,the storm is going N of the first tropical point right now! IMO its going NW NNW.


Yes I think it is north of that point also.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
URNT12 KNHC 042201
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 04/21:44:50Z
B. 12 deg 02 min N
082 deg 43 min W
C. 925 mb 657 m
D. 34 kt
E. 170 deg 14 nm
F. 258 deg 40 kt
G. 169 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 21 C / 755 m
J. 24 C / 769 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:44:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 75 KT N QUAD 21:48:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;
Please tell me what on this tells the actual strength of the storm and when does recon go back.


decoded

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 22:01Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 11 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 18
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 21:44:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 12°02'N 82°43'W (12.0333N 82.7167W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 302 miles (487 km) to the NW (314°) from Panamá, Panamá.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 657m (2,156ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the S (170°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 258° at 40kts (From between the WSW and W at ~ 46.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the S (169°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 755m (2,477ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 769m (2,523ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb (If this vortex is from mid 1990's or earlier 925mb might be incorrect. See note.)
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:44:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the north quadrant at 21:48:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Wow that 18Z GFDL is pretty intense. Hope that doesn't pan out for someone on here.
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Quoting Weather456:
Excellent structure



Classic..
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URNT12 KNHC 042201
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 04/21:44:50Z
B. 12 deg 02 min N
082 deg 43 min W
C. 925 mb 657 m
D. 34 kt
E. 170 deg 14 nm
F. 258 deg 40 kt
G. 169 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 21 C / 755 m
J. 24 C / 769 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 18
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:44:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 75 KT N QUAD 21:48:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;
Please tell me what on this tells the actual strength of the storm and when does recon go back.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436


trying hard to become a hurricane, big CDO forming
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Excellent structure

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting stormsurge39:
Idas not going to miss all the land, but i dont think its going to be over land as much as that it is forecasted to be!IMO


Agreed...she is bulging north more than westand has that that north/south look rather tahn the flattened convective bands to the north typical of a west moving cyclone IMO
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Scuse my typing..with Shrimp Gumbo itas hard to blog while eating...


"Vary" Generalized but post-worthy.




Back to Tropical Cyclones Myths Page

| Back to Main FAQ Page

Subject : C2) Doesn't the friction over land kill tropical cyclones?

(Parts of this section are written by Sim Aberson.)

No. During landfall, the increased friction over land acts - somewhat contradictory - to both decrease the sustained winds and also to increase the gusts felt at the surface (Powell and Houston 1996). The sustained (1 min or longer average) winds are reduced because of the dampening effect of larger roughness over land (i.e. bushes, trees and houses over land versus a relatively smooth ocean). The gusts are stronger because turbulence increases and acts to bring faster winds down to the surface in short (a few seconds) bursts.

However, after just a few hours, a tropical cyclone over land will begin to weaken rapidly - not because of friction - but because the storm lacks the the moisture and heat sources that the ocean provided. This depletion of moisture and heat hurts the tropical cyclone's ability to produce thunderstorms near the storm center. Without this convection,the storm rapidly fills.

An early numerical simulation (Tuleya and Kurihara 1978) had shown that a hurricane making landfall over a very moist region (i.e. mainly swamp) so that surface evaporation is unchanged, intensification may result. However, a more recent study (Tuleya 1994) that has a more realistic treatment of surface conditions found that even over a swampy area a hurricane would weaken because of limited heat sources. Indeed, nature conducted this experiment during Andrew as the hurricane traversed the very wet Everglades, Big Cypress and Corkscrew Swamp areas of southwest Florida. Andrew weakened dramatically: peak winds decreased about 33% and the sea level pressure in the eye rose 19 mb (Powell and Houston 1996).




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Quoting charlottefl:
At this point angles are everything. For example even if it goes inland, but at a steeper angle, it cuts a lot of land off it's track through CA.


Yep.
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If you look at a Google earth 3d perspective of the area you would notice the area is not mountainous. The mountains are the in the west and flatter land dominates the east. For Ida to dissipate it would have to well inland for a long time. It may encounter a problem over Honduras if it gets there since there are more mountains there.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Idas not going to miss all the land, but i dont think its going to be over land as much as that it is forecasted to be!IMO
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Ida's landfall area and track isn't very rough unless it decides to jog further west before landfall, then Ida doesn't stand a chance.. nor do the people in the path of the extremely destructive mudslides.

Ida appears likely to be the most destructive and deadly storm of the season..

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Quoting Weather456:


and if you compared the coordinates from 5PM to 8PM, the storm is heading NW.
Exactly what I thought.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Since the circulation is on the southern portion of the CDO, it may pull it N a bit.

Unlikely though...
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At this point angles are everything. For example even if it goes inland, but at a steeper angle, it cuts a lot of land off it's track through CA.
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Yea will have to watch it if it survives because the BAMD and the HWRF models both predict a LOU Landfall hope this isn't true man because I dont think the south needs anymore rain...
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Quoting Patrap:


Depends on a lot of variables,..a relatively flat inland Plain wont create the friction a Higher,rugged Topography would.


So how would a higher rugged topography affect it? Would the storm bounce off, turn inwards, slow, etc etc.

I know nothing about this stuff, sorry. :x
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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