Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

"TFP's" available
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668


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AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
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467. 786
Paloma formed Nov 5 last year...
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A Blooming CDO Up pulse may have fooled some as to Motion..but I believe as we see it close on the coast..its still 300 true at 6 mph

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Easterlies, the depth of this changes this part of the year, frontal systems are part of that package and can be seen on the modeling systems, predicting past 5 days can be hard, but a right turn this time of year should put the path of a storm on a reliable course.
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464. xcool






Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
463. 786
agreed, well the more time on water the more poleward she "should" go due to strengthening!
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Quoting Weather456:


The images are available at the NAVY TC website and these images are generated by sensors on a number of polar orbiting satellites. They encircle the earth at least twice a day. They can miss a system or they may catch it..it is the same concept with QS.

You can select a sensor and channel and then click loop at the top of the page. This loops all the passes ever caught in your selection.



Thank You very much!!!!
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am sure you have all seen this posted before...
SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 82.9W AT 05/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 56 NM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MOVING WNW AT 5 KT. IDA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY THURSDAY. LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W...AND FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 82W-85W.
Really impressed with what Ida's done with Dmin. Looks like she'll traverse over land and then maybe re-enter the baby bath waters of the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11355
Quoting 786:
..wonder if a relocation North can save her from landfall, she still needs to shift direction to NNW or N very soon


It may not save her from landfall, but she comes in a steeper angle, right of the NHC track.

probably cut off 1-2 days on land
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
458. 786
..wonder if a relocation North can save her from landfall, she still needs to shift direction to NNW or N very soon
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Quoting jipmg:
How in the world can we have a tropical system in the gulf in mid November?



That question is like asking how can we have more than 1 cat 5s in one season

How can we have a tropical storm over 21C waters

How can we have a cape verde hurricane on July 1.

2005

Grace

Bertha

Nothing is written in stone.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
T.S. Ida gives me a weird felling. It must be me not seeing an active storm in the Atlantic in a while.
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Quoting Skyepony:
mimic on Ida looks to be reforning the eye to the north.


That would place the center near 12.6N 82.8W
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Quoting Weather456:


These have climatology incorporated

6-10 day climo tracks

ok, you got me its going to go the NE and still hit somewhere on the Gulf Coast!LOL! I still would say right now between LA and FL. all the way down the west coast. Scratch just the N gulf coast. All this crap is IMO of course!
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check out what the 18z gfs does with Ida. A little something for everyone. Kinda what Dr. M was predicting.



Link
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
451. 786
well, every tiny wobble counts now!
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.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MissNadia:
428 PATRAP
Hey,
I don't believe a C-130 can fly at 33,000 feet.
Also don't know of any that can lift a payload of 100,000 lbs




Page used,
Maximum Takeoff Weight 155,000 pounds (69,750 kilograms).
see also: Special Operations MC-130E & MC-130H


Some C-130s have Hi Altitude Packages ..as per HALO insertion work.

I post um sweetie,I dont write um.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Skyepony just looked at your mimic posting that explains what I have been seeing thanks.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Quoting jipmg:
How in the world can we have a tropical system in the gulf in mid November?


With all due respect It has happen before..... I can't remember the date but the North Gulf Coast had a Tropical Storm in November.... I will try to get the date for you though.....

Taco :0)
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
428 PATRAP
Hey,
I don't believe a C-130 can fly at 33,000 feet.
Also don't know of any that can lift a payload of 100,000 lbs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recorded
Tropical storms and hurricanes by month since 1851
(North Atlantic region)

Month Total Average


January–April 5 <0.1


May 19 0.1
June 80 0.5
July 102 0.6
August 347 2.2
September 466 3.0
October 281 1.8
November 61 0.4
December 11 0.1
Total 1,372 8.7
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
436. jipmg 1:01 AM GMT on November 05, 2009
How in the world can we have a tropical system in the gulf in mid November?


well since when does it stay in the upper 70's and going to be in the 80's along the GOM next week in Novemember??? Something weird is going on...but looking forward to a nice swell come next week...
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Models show no right turn once in GOM! I think this is going to be a N Central Gulf Coast Storm. IMO


This image has climatology tracks incorporated

6-10 day model climo tracks

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks Patrap, I thought I had to wait until next season to see one of your "sophisticated models". You never fail us.



The ATCF site here,on this page access is a good tool to Bookmark,
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Link

GFS 10 DAY PRECIP RUN
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That baby better get inland quick every frame seems to be making a stronger storm. Also appears to be speeding up a little. As to direction like last night I hate to hazard a guess without a eye wall but seems a little right of forecast.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
Models show no right turn once in GOM! I think this is going to be a N Central Gulf Coast Storm. IMO
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Quoting Drakoen:
18z Dynamic models the TVCN has shifted eastward:



NHC shift likely.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
436. jipmg
How in the world can we have a tropical system in the gulf in mid November?
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2009 is tied with 1982 for record low hurricane activity with only 2 hurricanes. Ida may change that.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting DoubleAction:
I'am back, system looks taking a NW track ... as expected, now looking at a possible hurricane which is likely considering the nice convection blowing up right now and diurnal max is still 12 hours away. The inhibiting factor will be land and eventually shear long term. GFDL shifted in line with the other models, GFS also in better agreement. CMC has been the winner so far which is unusual. ECMWF fairly consistent. NOGAPS is ... well, it's NOGAPS lol. The shear forecast will keep this storm in the tropical range after it hits the GOM, every shear run on all models supports this through 6 days. No question it will survive the transit to the western Carribean which is supported by the models except NOGAPS of course. All modeling shows at least 25 knot GOM shear data when it gets there. The NHC is predicting a faster progress as well which means there will be no lingering in the carribean for days on end , the storm is on the move. I like historical data especially this late in the year to help figure out the path, this storm should follow it's NW path, then N, then a more rapid and curving NE route once it hits the GOM. When that happens will be the biggest question, a hard right could change the path hundreds of miles, but once it makes that turn the path becomes certain. This should not be a big storm at least for the U.S., just something to watch, Nicaragua may be less fortunate with the rain event setting up right now. Cheers.


lol

Gots to many gaps in its forecasts.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting Patrap:
Seeing some Longer Range consensus here unexpectedly.

TS IDA 18Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Thanks Patrap, I thought I had to wait until next season to see one of your "sophisticated models". You never fail us.
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All I can say is "Wow"..... Ida looks good and could be very interesting 1st of next week once in the GOM..... I still hate these late storms because the people in FL that have writen off hurricane season will be waken with a "Big" surprize.... I just hope that everyone still has there hurricane supplise ready just in case....

Taco :0)
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Good evening!

Quoting futuremet:
Idacane shortwave IR2

Is it me or at the last frame there's a face?
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Quoting DoubleAction:
I'am back, system looks taking a NW track ... as expected, now looking at a possible hurricane which is likely considering the nice convection blowing up right now and diurnal max is still 12 hours away. The inhibiting factor will be land and eventually shear long term. GFDL shifted in line with the other models, GFS also in better agreement. CMC has been the winner so far which is unusual. ECMWF fairly consistent. NOGAPS is ... well, it's NOGAPS lol. The shear forecast will keep this storm in the tropical range after it hits the GOM, every shear run on all models supports this through 6 days. No question it will survive the transit to the western Carribean which is supported by the models except NOGAPS of course. All modeling shows at least 25 knot GOM shear data when it gets there. The NHC is predicting a faster progress as well which means there will be no lingering in the carribean for days on end , the storm is on the move. I like historical data especially this late in the year to help figure out the path, this storm should follow it's NW path, then N, then a more rapid and curving NE route once it hits the GOM. When that happens will be the biggest question, a hard right could change the path hundreds of miles, but once it makes that turn the path becomes certain. This should not be a big storm at least for the U.S., just something to watch, Nicaragua may be less fortunate with the rain event setting up right now. Cheers.
Whats going to cut it back to the NE besides history?
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Idacane shortwave IR2
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
The Hercules C-130 is a Turbprop Powered
aircraft..

Specs here


Primary Function Intratheater airlift.

Contractor Lockheed Aeronautical Systems Company.
Power Plant Four Allison T56-A-15 turboprops; 4,300 horsepower, each engine.
Length 97 feet, 9 inches (29.3 meters).
Height 38 feet, 3 inches (11.4 meters).
Wingspan 132 feet, 7 inches (39.7 meters).
Speed 374 mph (Mach 0.57) at 20,000 feet (6,060 meters).
Ceiling 33,000 feet (10,000 meters) with 100,000 pounds (45,000 kilograms) payload.
Maximum Takeoff Weight 155,000 pounds (69


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
18z Dynamic models the TVCN has shifted eastward:

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It does not appear reccon does not take long to reach areas in the Caribbean or Atlantic.

Reccon aircrafts fly alot faster than commercial aircraft no?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I'am back, system looks taking a NW track ... as expected, now looking at a possible hurricane which is likely considering the nice convection blowing up right now and diurnal max is still 12 hours away. The inhibiting factor will be land and eventually shear long term. GFDL shifted in line with the other models, GFS also in better agreement. CMC has been the winner so far which is unusual. ECMWF fairly consistent. NOGAPS is ... well, it's NOGAPS lol. The shear forecast will keep this storm in the tropical range after it hits the GOM, every shear run on all models supports this through 6 days. No question it will survive the transit to the western Carribean which is supported by the models except NOGAPS of course. All modeling shows at least 25 knot GOM shear data when it gets there. The NHC is predicting a faster progress as well which means there will be no lingering in the carribean for days on end , the storm is on the move. I like historical data especially this late in the year to help figure out the path, this storm should follow it's NW path, then N, then a more rapid and curving NE route once it hits the GOM. When that happens will be the biggest question, a hard right could change the path hundreds of miles, but once it makes that turn the path becomes certain. This should not be a big storm at least for the U.S., just something to watch, Nicaragua may be less fortunate with the rain event setting up right now. Cheers.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Seeing some Longer Range consensus here unexpectedly.

TS IDA 18Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
011L/H/I/C1
MARK
11.6N/82.3W

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422. xcool
Gumbo mmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
TS IDA 18Z Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Intensity slightly down on the run as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
November.
And something to watch!
Finally...
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Weather456, thanks for all your help.

Ditto that...and don't sell yourself short 456. You are a pro. You have the knowledge, and you have the detached non-emotional reasoning a good forecaster needs. You're a big "live help" on this blog.
.
.
One question, concerning that latest GFDL run. That's a run that's got something for everybody. I've never been really clear on the timing of the runs and the data input used. Do you think that this interesting run included the data from the recent intensification? And don't sweat it if you don't immediately know the answer. This question on timing that I've asked over the years is one that nobody has been able to answer definitivly.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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