Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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there ya go fellas theres your NW movement now seen by Nhc/tpc
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Hey all wu bloggers, my first post in some time. Just finished my blog on Ida and would like some feedback as to why i may be right or wrong. Link
All comments welcome and my sympathies to any on here being affected by this storm.
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WOW! I was close .1 degree off even if I have to say so myself.
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The GFDL has Ida hitting 139kts at the 126hr point. Not to sure I am buying that track but wow, if that panned out that is bad news.
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565. jipmg
movement now NW at 7
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I estimate Ida to be around 12.6N/83.1W moving between WNW/NW actually I think due to the lay of land she might actually skirt the coast and not go directly on land, if she does go inland in my opinion it will be that small area over Nicaraguan/Honduran border.
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TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...IDA APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AT 10 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN
ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA
EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND IDA COULD APPROACH
HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 83.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
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562. flsky
Quoting tornadofan:
RGB Loop

Click on tropical points. Ida think she's moving just a bit to the right of track. Still looks like landfall will happen soon.

To me, it looks to be moving exactly on forecast points!
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anyone look at the gfs run? It has ida doing almost a full 360 in the Gulf haha. It is possible I guess.
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10 p.m on IDA

65 mph pressure 995 mb.
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559. beell
554.
There ya go, press.
From the Good Doc's blog...

...rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season...

Probably not totally dried out from the stalling rainmaker of two weeks ago.
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Looking long term here...after this will be a dangerous storm in terms of flooding over the next few days, I am curious on what the high building in to the NW is going to affect its progress towards the Gulf States. Right now if I had to make a call worst case for gulf states would be TS if it makes it that far.
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RGB Loop

Click on tropical points. Ida think she's moving just a bit to the right of track. Still looks like landfall will happen soon.
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I know, I said I was going to sleep, but I just took one last look. Take about 25-30% off the wind speed and this is the forecast of the GFDL. Don't know if I agree with it.

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Sure hope I don't get a ban. NM I'll change it to awe crud!
Lake Charles...

SHORT TERM...WILL KEEP INSERTING PATCHY FOG OVER AREAS WITH RIVER
FLOODING WHICH HAS BEEN OCCURRING AFTER MIDNIGHT LATELY. THAT
INCLUDES THE ALEXANDRIA AREA WITH THE RED RIVER, THE ATCHAFALAYA,
THE SABINE RIVER ALONG THE TEXAS LOUISIANA BORDER AND THE NECHES.


LONG TERM...SUNDAY NOW LOOKS WET AS MOISTURE FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE COMBINED WITH THE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE ABOUT IDA WILL ALL
BE PICKED UP BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT TO
POTENTIALLY PRODUCE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT SUNDAY INTO
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY.

Flooding getting bad.

HYDROLOGY...MAJOR FLOODING ON THE SABINE RIVER NEAR BON WEIR AND
LATER ON NEAR DEWEYVILLE.
..MODERATE FLOODING IS FORECAST FOR THE CALCASIEU
RIVER NEAR OBERLIN.
..MINOR FLOODING ON THE RED RIVER AT
ALEXANDRIA AS WELL AS THE CALCASIEU AT OAKDALE AND KINDER AS
WELL AS OLD TOWN BAY. MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO ON TAP FOR THE
NECHES RIVER NEAR TOWN BLUFF
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
...please remember what's left...once all the interesting meteorological dynamics have passed...Thanks!
Link
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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552. beell
Quoting tornadofan:


Truth lies between 4PM NHC track and the 18z GFDL track, Ida say.


I know you were just waiting to get an "Ida" in there lol. Big difference in resulting intensity for a small system over land. Ida think.

Some shear waiting for Ida if/when she goes back offshore from Honduras.

A weakening shortwave in the subtropical jet would seem to keep some strong shear near Ida.

A frame from the EPAC GFS 200mb showing the shortwave axis near 100W.
Valid 12Z Thursday:



The complication-there is a strong polar shortwave progged to dip down over the SW shortly after. This will push up a ridge ahead of it. "Shortwave ridging" they call it. As the ridge builds, the stronger upper level winds will lift north allowing better conditions. Or at least close enough to consider this as a possibility.


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551. jipmg
very impressive convection, if it wasn't for the land mass to its west it would just explode..
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Oh God no...
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Quoting help4u:
Gore on tonight?Could use a good laugh.

or you could tune in if your having problems falling asleep. That would certainly put the Z's on.
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Quoting JRRP:
well.....
i love this words ... the season is over
in 26 days
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Good evening. Wow! Miss a day and everything goes nuts! I don't even know where to start. First off, the rains from Ida will be awful for CA no matter her wind speeds. And I seriously hope the gfdl is wrong on intensity. I've met a lot of nice people from all over the Caribbean. And would hate for any of them to face a major hurricane again this year. Wow! Who woke up our hurricane season?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
546. JRRP
well.....
i love this words ... the season is over
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Gore on tonight?Could use a good laugh.
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I'm out too everyone have a great night and we will see what Hurricane Ida does next....

Taco :0)
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Quoting Patrap:
Only time will give us that solution taco..

And some good G-4 Sniffs along with the HH Info.
Will be a roller coaster ride seems though. Lotsa Players involved with this un.
this one looks too have 4 poss ways to play out we wait watch see
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After a good nights rest,...come tomorrow we will learn a lil more about Ida and her future.

Thoughts go out for those dealing with her Rains tonight and the next few days as well.

G'night.

,ps..Al Gore will be on the Daily show tonight,11pm EDT

That should drive a good few nutz,..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting beell:
Only thing wrong with the 18Z GFDL-it appears to be too far east. Never touching land. It sure seems like there will be some land interaction involved pretty soon.


Truth lies between 4PM NHC track and the 18z GFDL track, Ida say.
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Quoting Patrap:
Only time will give us that solution taco..

And some good G-4 Sniffs along with the HH Info.
Will be a roller coaster ride seems though. Lotsa Players involved with this un.


I do "Agree" with you Patrap and with all due respect, it will be a heck of a roller coaster ride....

Taco :0)
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Patrap...link-meister...any links showing current position(s) of warm eddy(ies)? I know its early, but could be a major player this time of year
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538. beell
Only thing wrong with the 18Z GFDL-it appears to be too far east. Never touching land. It sure seems like there will be some land interaction involved pretty soon.
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Only time will give us that solution taco..

And some good G-4 Sniffs along with the HH Info.
Will be a roller coaster ride seems though. Lotsa Players involved with this un.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Well from everything I have seen and read on here, looks to be a GOM storm.... Now what part of the GOM does it go???? Is the real question here.....

Taco :0)
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011L/H/I/C1
MARK
12.3N/82.9W
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Well,Okay P451,and thanx for the imagery you provide all us here.

Have a good rest.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
So much moisture to the west from the developing low in the BOC. It's like a shield that will block Ida from moving further westward, should be pulled north VERY soon. Look at the images.. wall of moisture.
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GFDL was right on with Paloma last year! Hope not the same this year!
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Link
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This GFDL run is scary! 139 knots???http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2009110418-ida11l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&h our=Animation
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Quoting P451:


We're going to have to name this STS Patrap. It will be the second system named after you, as you called Claudette when it was literally our "55W AOI".



Well..please dont do that...also a Lot of folks attention was on Bill at the Time as that ULL transitioned.
So..I take no credit for just observing it,..but the NHC finally got in on it ,albeit a tad late,

...LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
Quoting stormsurge39:
I know that standards are high for the NHC, as they should be, although they are not immune to a diffucult forecasting season! I trust them the most!
you too 456
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523. jipmg
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop





Hopefullt that means a cool breezy cloudy day in SFLA
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Quoting P451:


They're supposed to be.

But I bet they want a do-over on this season. They've been off on all but a small handful of systems. It's been a tough year to forecast and in the post-season-analysis I bet they are not going to be shy about what they did not forecast properly.

They already have several reports done. You can go here to check them out!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
The MJO Pulse has really stuck its finger in the Western Atlantic Basin's Eye,

..wowsa
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127550
I not going to venture on the track nhc looks pretty good as usual but does anybody else think it moving a lot faster than 5mph.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.