Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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Update is out. 12.5N/83.2W moving NW at 5 mph.

Link
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Quoting Seastep:


it is


Where?

I havent seen them update the ATCF info.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Oh, TampaSpin, thank you for answering that question... I was chomping at the bit as I also wanted to know the answer, and what to call that mess (subtropical low).


Dr. Masters is calling it ExtraTropical.....he is probably more accurate since it is attached to a frontal boundray yet.
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714. xcool
BurnedAfterPosting i thinking you rigth!!!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684


From 04:45 UTC..

TS IDA Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


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712. xcool
no more blackout .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
There's no blackout, I'm looking at a closeup of Ida that is 8 minutes old.


Are you using the NASA goes East.....
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I wish Corn Island had a weather station! The center appears to be right there!


Seems to me that Ida is starting to stall, which holy cow look at that is what the GFDL, GFS and UKMET all say would happen. You know those models someone said were dead wrong lol
Quoting TampaSpin:


That is actaully a Subtropical Low.....Not a depression or storm but, a Low.....Not sure how that is going to play out with this yet.....funny that darn thing just might develop some also.....its getting better every day.

Oh, TampaSpin, thank you for answering that question... I was chomping at the bit as I also wanted to know the answer, and what to call that mess (subtropical low).
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Stationary.

update should be interesting.
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705. CUBWF
Are we still with black out?
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Quoting sarahjola:
does anyone think that the area of disturbed weather in the boc will develop or merge with ida, or will it just die out and go away?


That is actaully a Subtropical Low.....Not a depression or storm but, a Low.....Not sure how that is going to play out with this yet.....funny that darn thing just might develop some also.....its getting better every day.
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There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters
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Not onshore.

12.5N/83W
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EST. time of landfall is showing at 5am Est. time.....
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does anyone think that the area of disturbed weather in the boc will develop or merge with ida, or will it just die out and go away?
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not officially
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695. xcool
Firing a nice
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
TS IDA Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


TFP"s available
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Quoting sarahjola:

looks like a hurricane


it is
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692. CUBWF
Good evening everyone. By the imagen at post 667 looks like the eye it's trying to pop up, and drifting north. By the way, where can I get that imagen? Thanks in advanced
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Quoting Patrap:
TS IDA Looks very Healthy ATM..


looks like a hurricane
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Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin .Ida is partially onshore in Nicaragua now :)


Maybe close. Pretty hard to tell.....


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TS IDA Looks very Healthy ATM..



Note the 5 Tops in the right front Quad Popping..away from her center.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yankees win World Series!!! Yeaaahhh...

Flagged. (Just kidding...Admin, just kidding...)
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Tropical WunderMap®
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Looks to me like Ida has slowed significantly just off shore. It will be interesting to see how far inland it will go. Wouldn't surprise me if it stalls just off or slightly on shore for 6 to 8 hours then begins to drift northward.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


actually no she isn't, the circulation is completely offshore still

i know it looks like that to me too. i think the eye is still offshore also. how strong is it now? is it a cat 1 yet?
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684. xcool
BurnedAfterPosting thank
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Quoting xcool:
BurnedAfterPosting .opps my errors


its all good :)



WunderMap®
Bluefields,Nicaragua
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That there is a hurricane.
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680. xcool
BurnedAfterPosting .opps my errors
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 NOV 2009 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 12:34:24 N Lon : 83:12:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.5 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -71.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.1C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

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Ida Party And Drink Beers 2nite
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Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin .Ida is partially onshore in Nicaragua now :)


actually no she isn't, the circulation is completely offshore still
676. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
675. xcool
TampaSpin .Ida is partially onshore in Nicaragua now :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Yankees win World Series!!! and Jackie Chan's look-a-like Hideki Matsui wins the MVP!!! Yeaaahhh...
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673. xcool
sarahjola yes
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting sarahjola:

that looks as though the eye is still very far from land. is that a updated shot or is that old? what is the movement of ida. i read on here that the movement was now nw. i don't see any northerly movement but i can't really tell where the eye is on most of the images I've looked at. where do you think it will go and how strong do you see it getting?


It is off shore a good bit...probabaly 9hrs from shore......which really is a long time for it to further get stronger into a possible cane....
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GOM IR Loop

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Quoting Orcasystems:

Us old fellows call it quits early... its all of 9 pm here :)

lol...I napped. That's what us ol' gals do. :)
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Quoting xcool:

that looks as though the eye is still very far from land. is that a updated shot or is that old? what is the movement of ida. i read on here that the movement was now nw. i don't see any northerly movement but i can't really tell where the eye is on most of the images I've looked at. where do you think it will go and how strong do you see it getting?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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