Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I like that image winter123. How do you get it to animate?


Someone else is hosting it and it just scripts to update and animate as a .gif? I dont know, i just use it.
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Ida very close to Cane Status in the Last frames here.

TS IDA Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
I like that image winter123. How do you get it to animate?
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Not sure what you meant by "dirty" but as far as cyclone mechanics go in the northern hemisphere, the NE quadrant is generally the "strongest" due to storm motion being added to the windspeed rather than subtracted as offshore winds move opposite the storm motion resulting in a net weaker windspeed. Also, offshore winds tend to suck the water out to sea whereas on shore winds pile water up. Not to say any part is pleasant, this is just a generalization. And if you knew this already ignore it, I kind of figured you did but also knew some may not.
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Quoting xcool:
GTcooliebai hard to said.

The GT stands for Georgetown the capital of Guyana South America and during the socialist years the African American people had control of the country and would call the Indians who came from India as share croppers Coolie's and bai is a slang for boy. I hope that helps.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

I know your right in terms of the impacts it will have on those poor people of Nicaragua and Honduras. Just thought I would throw that out there for kicks since the Yankees just won the World Series.


I usually like to drink when a storm is landfalling, but i havent this year, for obvious reasons. I think it's because I imagine myself in the path of it on the coast and how terrible it would be... Though i do want to experience a ~75mph hurricane myself one day just to see.

edit: hmm, avatar vanished. Also, repost since i have it open:
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For a compact storm Ida is pretty symetrical.
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TS IDA Tropical WunderMap® Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
761. xcool
GTcooliebai hard to said.
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Yeah I think its call revenge.
Quoting Patrap:
TS IDA sucked the energy out that Pacific Invest Like a Phat tick on a tired Bloodhound..

Yeah I think its call revenge
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I agree skyepony..Ida doing some impressive Strengthening and some spiffy navigating as well tonight.
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741. Ah, is that what they commonly call being on "the dirty side" or the other side of the storm. Ex., in Hur. Rita, Galveston was not on the "dirty side" of the storm, and so had little damage.
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Hey anyone has Ida stalled?
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756. xcool
lol
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755. Skyepony (Mod)
Ida has really pulled it together while I was out. The MIMIC shows it reformed North again, strengthened & still headed for land. Beginning to feed off the Pacific. May bounce & roll up the coast a bit at landfall. Tenacious bit of circulation that should survive to the other side. If the blob in the EPAC sucks life & strengthens from Ida being on land the forecast gets tougher, but I kinda don't think 96E will get greatly enhanced since it is sitting in a cooler patch of water from the maturing of El Nino & constant upwelling from invest after storm in that area lately. The heat content map is black about where 96E is..


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TS IDA sucked the energy out that Pacific Invest Like a Phat tick on a tired Bloodhound..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
Quoting Seastep:
Fair enough, but it is kinda clear in this case. The update just came out. And I, myself, posted it.

Anyway, goodnight. It is a hurricane and stationary, imo. ;)


I agree that its unofficially a Hurricane.

Anyways, Goodnight.
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Quoting winter123:


Ughhhh. I would be but I have a test tomorrow. I will have a belayed party. To celebrate, massive flooding and death? It actually makes no sense now that i think about it...

I know your right in terms of the impacts it will have on those poor people of Nicaragua and Honduras. Just thought I would throw that out there for kicks since the Yankees just won the World Series.
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thanks for being kind. do you think this storm bounced a little?
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Fair enough, but it is kinda clear in this case. The update just came out. And I, myself, posted it.

Anyway, goodnight. It is a hurricane and stationary, imo. ;)
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748. xcool
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 NOV 2009 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 12:21:04 N Lon : 83:05:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.6 4.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -76.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************




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Pat i'm getting an Ill feeling in my gut about Ida!
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"Impressive"..

.."Swooosh,ahhhhh".........
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645

From 04:45 UTC..

TS IDA Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)





From 05:15

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Quoting Seastep:


Nothing official, no.


might be best to make sure people know it is your opinion, the way you stated it, some could have taken it as a fact
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Quoting Seastep:


Nothing official, no.


Then please....for the sanity of the blog add an IMO after those kinds of posts.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Ida Party And Drink Beers 2nite


Ughhhh. I would be but I have a test tomorrow. I will have a belayed party. To celebrate, massive flooding and death? It actually makes no sense now that i think about it...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Where are you getting this from.


I see nothing that suggests its a Hurricane.


Nothing official, no.
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Quoting sarahjola:

it is right there. i just looked at the map patrap posted and it also looks as though the eye wall may have taken a step back as it approached landfall. i may be fussed at for making this comment on here, but i have noticed that hurricanes do that sometimes. they seem to kind of bounce off land as they approach, or as the eye wall scrapes land mass. did ida just do that? i am no met. and i have only been watching storms for a while. i really know nothing about them except for what i see. and it looks like ida just bounced.


Thats ok....ya i sorta agree with you.....depends on the direction a storm is making landfall.......the drag resistance from land will cause a storm to jump and bounce before moving on in just from the force form the steering winds.......if steering is light which it is the friction with land could cause a bounce affect....coming from that direction it would normally bounce NW from what i have seen in the past....good example was when Katrina made that sudden little jog to the right some just before landfall......i believe that too was called by the friction of the counter clockwise spin....
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738. xcool
i`m oh wow
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


NHC says its not a hurricane


Yes.
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Quoting Seastep:
It's a hurricane and stationary.

Goodnight.


Where are you getting this from.


I see nothing that suggests its a Hurricane.

And I see nothing that suggests its stationary.
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Quoting Seastep:
It's a hurricane and stationary.

Goodnight.


NHC says its not a hurricane
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Quoting xcool:
cat 5 wt+++++++~~~~

??????? Je ne comprende pas! Heart-attack model?
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It's a hurricane and stationary.

Goodnight.
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Impressive for any year. Monumental for the Year of the Shear, aka el nino 09....... Anyone with interestst in the carribean or gomex needs to watch this .... I'm enjoying myself though I hate it for all the innocents who are and will suffer the brunt of this storm. It is nice, however, to have something of interest to track and learn from before cane 09 closes out. Oh and to those who said 09 season was dead? .. err =D
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Beware a Yucatan and thereabouts points N and Ne as that solution is a possibility among the runs.





IDA 00Z Dynamic Run

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
CMC something into TX/LA. Dunno if it's Ida or BOC. Link
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Looks like the center is directly over Corn Island currently.
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Quoting das8929:


Surprised noone posted this

We're actually talking about forecast models in one of my Atmospheric Science courses right now. I wonder what we'll be talking about tomorrow morning...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11669
Very impressive.

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725. xcool
cat 5 wt+++++++~~~~
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I wish Corn Island had a weather station! The center appears to be right there!

it is right there. i just looked at the map patrap posted and it also looks as though the eye wall may have taken a step back as it approached landfall. i may be fussed at for making this comment on here, but i have noticed that hurricanes do that sometimes. they seem to kind of bounce off land as they approach, or as the eye wall scrapes land mass. did ida just do that? i am no met. and i have only been watching storms for a while. i really know nothing about them except for what i see. and it looks like ida just bounced.
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1:00 AM EST Thu Nov 5
Location: 12.5°N 83.2°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
722. CUBWF
Thank you all of you that answer. The stall could give Ida the most chance to get hurricane status. So the strongest she gets, greatest the posibility to not weakening so much, and maybe never lose her TS status. Nicaragua coast it's getting socked. Hope those people could get move out to safest place. Remember when Felix so many people got surprised and many lost their life.
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No upgrade at midnight...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050531
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING
INLAND...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...85 KM...NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...IDA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND IDA COULD
APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IDA MOVES INLAND OVER NICARAGUA LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

A STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL.

...SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.5N 83.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
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Surprised noone posted this
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Update is out. 12.5N/83.2W moving NW at 5 mph.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.