Tropical Storm Ida a major flood threat for Nicaragua and Honduras

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:33 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ida has arrived, the ninth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Visible satellite loops show that Ida continues to steadily organize, with surface spiral banding and upper-level outflow now obvious over the northern portion of the storm. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is in the storm, and found a large area of surface winds in the 45 - 50 mph range, with a smaller area of 60 mph winds, prompting NHC to upgrade the storm.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Ida.

Ida is currently under low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range in the Western Caribbean for the remainder of the week. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is enough energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. The Western Caribbean is plenty moist, and dry air is not an issue for Ida. Ida is currently too small to be affected by tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific.

The forecast for Ida
The 1 - 3 day forecast for Ida has come into better focus now that the storm has formed, and models have come into better agreement. The current west to northwesterly motion of Ida should carry it inland over northeastern Nicaragua early Thursday morning. Ida is too small to tap the Pacific as a source of moisture, and it is just the northeastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras that need to be concerned with heavy rains and mudslides. With Ida expected to spend a full two days over land, rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras will likely make Ida the deadliest storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. There is a medium chance (30 - 50%) that Ida will dissipate while over land. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, low to moderate wind shear and warm waters await it, and strengthening is likely. An extratropical storm is forecast by GFS and ECMWF models to form in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this storm may propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday. However, both of these models show a high pressure ridge building in and forcing Ida southwards, back into the Caribbean, by the middle of next week. The long term fate of Ida, should it survive the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras, remains murky.

Jeff Masters

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Lastly, took one final look at atlantic water vapor unenhanced black and white on the nhc, the systems moisture seems to be rapidly increasing in area making for what looks like a much larger storm bad news for the rainfall down there.
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Tropical Storm IDA,WunderMap®
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
TS IDA 06Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
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Good night ladies and gentleman.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
Quoting TampaSpin:


WOW......LOOK at how hot at 100m deep.....OH NO!

Looking at the 100m water temps I have a question. Is it possible that Ida could follow the heat?
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Lets certainly hope that GFDL model is not correct.....OUCH!
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Hunker on the funktop loop if you look at the last frame the last little green dot is I think where the center is almost on the nhc predicted path. Although I see what you mean its hard to tell with the system weakening some over land.
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LOL!!
Definitely an outlier.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Almost appears the center may have jogged almost due west in the link below. Obviously could be a wobble but looks like this movement will totally miss the next "projected" point.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-jsl.html
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Elconnado maybe it had to go the way of the green lizard.
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Do you all see a ull or trough in the east pack moving towards Ida looks like it completely destroyed 96e. Its headed in the general direction of Ida, if it keeps coming I think it might push Ida more northward.
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Quoting ElConando:
What happened to my profile pic??


I cant see it either
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WOW......LOOK at how hot at 100m deep.....OH NO!
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00z GFDL Hypercane.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
What happened to my profile pic??
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803. xcool




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802. Skyepony (Mod)
HUnker~ I agree, tenacious swirl. Just an invest this time last night.

I better sleep.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
which would make sense if the system stays, or regenerates, into a deep system after emerging back over open waters.


BAMD is for a stronger storm.....the one that is farthest East.....go to my site.....you can see it easier....
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Claudette has made land fall Bill made land fall and i'd a think Ida wants to join em.
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799. Skyepony (Mod)
Patrap~ Usually the 1st one out of the box stumbles hard somewhere in the next 2 days.. Impressive start in the 20s 1st day though. Atleast the models have a better handle on this storm than many times.
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Quoting Skyepony:


I suspect we may seem some avoidance here. Though don't think Ida is getting past where Nicaragua curves out to the NNE without tasting some land. Probibly not so mountainous more to the NE side.
unless it jogs farther to the west, it should miss the higher mountain ranges and should sustain some sort of organization.
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797. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting xcool:
Skyepony so bammd is win wow


The one going to LA is our top preformer so far. mmf5E goes to Tampa. The Blue is AVNO, though not a major did well today (better than LBARS) & has done pretty good this season overall.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
BAM models.....BAMD is the farthest East....


which would make sense if the system stays, or regenerates, into a deep system after emerging back over open waters.
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ON THE LAST IR FRAME LOOKS LIKE IDA TOOK A JOG TO THE NORTH. GFDL IS FORECASTING THIS.
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794. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:


Funny how it seems sometimes they sense the coast intuitively and maybe avoid it ,as a self defesne mechanism almost,read a PDF on that by a outlier Guy..once.


Cant find it ,..


I suspect we may seem some avoidance here. Though don't think Ida is getting past where Nicaragua curves out to the NNE without tasting some land. Probibly not so mountainous more to the NE side.
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793. xcool
Skyepony so bammd is win wow
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
BAM models.....BAMD is the farthest East....


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Been favoring the BAMMD all day skyepony,..seems to be zeroed in pretty well so far.

But Im still Looking for a different solution come the 06 run..

This ones "too" creepy and Im not looking at it,..








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Good thing Ida will going over Land for a while.....Course those its hitting may not think so tho..
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789. Skyepony (Mod)
Ida model error race begins.. With BAMD taking the early lead..

Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
BAMD INCREASING 27.4 -1 -1 -1 -1
LBAR INCREASING 44.8 -1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B INCREASING 47.9 -1 -1 -1 -1
HWRF INCREASING 59.6 -1 -1 -1 -1
GFDL INCREASING 78.5 -1 -1 -1 -1
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TS IDA 05:45 UTC
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




From 05:15

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636


This is why it will take off once it gets back into waters after landfall.......Look at the GulfStream.....It will go through some of the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic basin....If shear drops......Ida will explode and intensify very quickly.....


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Quoting Skyepony:
Patrap~ We could use one on Roatan too.

Ida seems to be reaching more N that NNW like earlier. Still looks like it will be hampered by land some shortly.


Funny how it seems sometimes they sense the coast intuitively and maybe avoid it ,as a self defesne mechanism almost,read a PDF on that by a outlier Guy..once.


Cant find it ,..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Atlantic 2009 at a glance
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
784. Skyepony (Mod)
Patrap~ We could use one on Roatan too.

Ida seems to be reaching more N that NNW like earlier. Still looks like it will be hampered by land some shortly.
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TS Claudette,Landfall Radar loop
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Quoting BioChemist:
This is the first landfalling tropical system of the year yea? Atlantic.. obviously.




Ana made landfall in the islands
Bill made landfall in Newfoundland
Claudette made landfall in the Florida Panhandle
Erika also made landfall in the Islands
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781. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting BioChemist:
This is the first landfalling tropical system of the year yea? Atlantic.. obviously.




I think TS Claudette hit Florida..
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Quoting BioChemist:
This is the first landfalling tropical system of the year yea? Atlantic.. obviously.



I think you forgot about short lived TS Claudette. Formed around the same time Ana and Bill were out in the Atlantic
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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Oh ok I see, thank you.


Yvw,glad to help.
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Quoting Patrap:


The U of Miami Host that site,here

Oh ok I see, thank you.
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This is the first landfalling tropical system of the year yea? Atlantic.. obviously.


Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
PatRap if you look closely at your loop at 770...you can see the lower clouds are starting to spin counterclock wise....HUM!
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Quoting Skyepony:
Wundermap is awesome. Now we just need more personal weather stations in Nicaragua..


Surely we could fund a Corn Island Doppler,..I mean how much could a Lil Invest pay off in the long run,..sure would be Nice tonight.
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774. Skyepony (Mod)
Wundermap is awesome. Now we just need more personal weather stations in Nicaragua..
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773. xcool
i seeing MOVE NW ;
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15625
Quoting Patrap:
TS IDA sucked the energy out that Pacific Invest Like a Phat tick on a tired Bloodhound..



LMAO...that is great description from a true south cracker....LOL
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Quoting winter123:


Someone else is hosting it and it just scripts to update and animate as a .gif? I dont know, i just use it.


The U of Miami Host that site,here
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
GOM IR Loop..

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I like that image winter123. How do you get it to animate?


Someone else is hosting it and it just scripts to update and animate as a .gif? I dont know, i just use it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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