Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

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A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El NiƱo conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

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When Beell speaks...

It's like E.F. Hutton all over again.
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194. beell
Anyway, a low is liable to pop up anywhere in a model if this scenario (post 193) has merit. If an extension of the ridge over the GOM works down into to MX as modeled, we might get a good pressure gradient with a nearby low to get something going in the BOC in advance of the next CONUS trough that turns it N.

ADDED: And that would be the trough at 168 hrs-not 78 hrs
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193. beell
This may be one way. I could be wrong, but this is very similar to the last system. A very large, area of low pressure spanning both basins. Maybe in the general circulation as outlined in red something could get an initial pull to the north. Westward steering currents seem well-defined enough at 78 hrs.

700mb at 78 hrs
Photobucket
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Quoting Weather456:


November storms usually move backwards that is just east of due north.

However, the models are showing some motion west of due north and the CMC brings the feature over the Yucatan Peninsula and the ECMWF thinks ridging will be strong enough in the long term - either after or between troughing episodes to send this feature to the Central Gulf Coast.

Check and check. thanks456. Interesting little feature. I doubt it will make it to the central gulf however, given the serious of troughs we keep seeing. Fun to watch however.
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CAN SOMEONE PLEASE POST THE LATEST UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS. THANK YOU!!!!!!!!
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Little busy .. can't check on the stuff myself ... -.- .. what exactly are the models expecting.. I get that they pull it north with a sequence of weaknesses ... where do they eventually take the system at this time? ( Yes I know it's pointless at this time to say where it will go I'm just curious as to what the models are guessing versus climatology.)


November storms usually move backwards that is just east of due north.

However, the models are showing some motion west of due north and the CMC brings the feature over the Yucatan Peninsula and the ECMWF thinks ridging will be strong enough in the long term - either after or between troughing episodes to send this feature to the Central Gulf Coast.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:

Tecnically speaking if you run the A/C when the ambient OAT is 55 the refrigerant pressure drops. This drop in pressure leads to a lower evaporating temperature. Normal evaporater temp is approximatley 40. With the lower pressures this drops the evaporater temperature into the 20's. Anything below roughly 29 will cause the coil to freeze. Ice build up on the coil will reduce the air flow across the evaporater coil causing the pressure to drop even further. With the lower pressure all of the refigerant cannot evaporate and gets back to the compressor in liquid form. Since liquid cannot be compressed the discharge valves on the compressor tend to break. With this in mind make sure you have a low ambient kit installed for low temp operation. I hope this helps.


Thank you !! Has been forwarded to her...with a snotty little note...
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When is it going to get cold in South Florida?
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Quoting beell:
850mb at 78 hrs-where's the trough?


The steering currents are weak in the Caribbean which would allow the low to drift northward.
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186. beell
850mb at 78 hrs-where's the trough?
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Quoting Drakoen:


and the UKMET


Can't forget about UKMET.
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Quoting beell:
ECMWF have been performing the best,

Yeah, this one did a splendid job with the last Carib low, lol.


I'm not going to put too much weight on the ECMWF either. The weight, rather, is being put on the 4 models (CMC, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF) combined. Excluding the robust NAM.
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183. beell
ECMWF have been performing the best,

Yeah, this one did a splendid job with the last Carib low, lol.
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Quoting Weather456:


My exact thoughts.

It seems weakness will be the key in moving this north and those 2 models seem to compensate for this.

Little busy .. can't check on the stuff myself ... -.- .. what exactly are the models expecting.. I get that they pull it north with a sequence of weaknesses ... where do they eventually take the system at this time? ( Yes I know it's pointless at this time to say where it will go I'm just curious as to what the models are guessing versus climatology.)
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Quoting futuremet:


Yes, it will apparently be strong enough to tug it north, since the steering currents are usually weak down there. However, another deep-layered ridge sometime early next week. This will stall and might slowly the caribbean system westward. An even stronger trough will shortly come thereafter and tug everything back toward the north.

Pretty complex scenario. The CMC and ECMWF have been performing the best, so I am relying more on them. The GFS seems to have a hard time handling this.


My exact thoughts.

It seems weakness will be the key in moving this north and those 2 models seem to compensate for this.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting WxLogic:
Good afternoon,

Interesting to see 12Z ECMWF getting on track with CMC/GFS (to some extent) when is usually is the other way around.


and the UKMET
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165 and 174

Thanks
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
177. IKE
HPC 3-7 day forecast from Monday afternoon.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting beell:


Thanks futuremet,
From deep in the southern Carib?


Yes, it will apparently be strong enough to tug it north, since the steering currents are usually weak down there. However, another deep-layered ridge sometime early next week. This will stall and might slowly the caribbean system westward. An even stronger trough will shortly come thereafter and tug everything back toward the north.

Pretty complex scenario. The CMC and ECMWF have been performing the best, so I am relying more on them. The GFS seems to have a hard time handling this.
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Good afternoon,

Interesting to see 12Z ECMWF getting on track with CMC/GFS (to some extent) when is usually is the other way around.
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Quoting Weather456:
Is there such thing as Hurricane Insurance in the United States that covers properties, floods, cars, etc?


Flood insurance is a federal program. Homeowners covers fires, lightning, broken pipes, wall falling on your car, etc. Wind (hurricane) is separate and variable depending on the insurer. Mine covers cars if on my property but not if driving down the road evacuating too late and get hit by debris, auto covers that.
With that said, it's still not so simple. Ask anyone who had wind driven storm surge, or those who were told they didn't need flood insurance because maps showed them being high what happened and you will get a lot of angry replies, and rightfully so.
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173. beell
And yeah, it is nice lookin' Drak.
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172. beell
Quoting futuremet:


This trough



Thanks futuremet,
From deep in the southern Carib?
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Quoting Drakoen:


Beautiful 200mb upper anticyclone in the Caribbean


Yup, this will help the genesis of this system even further.
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Quoting futuremet:


This trough



Beautiful 200mb upper anticyclone in the Caribbean
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Quoting beell:
Could someone show me what lifts the Caribbean low to the N?
TIA


This trough

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168. beell
Could someone show me what lifts the Caribbean low to the N?
TIA
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Aternoon Folks. Starting a new job next Monday and won't be on as much as I have been this Season but wishing all of you happy hunting for the remainder of this season (looking pretty feisty out there for early November) and I'll try to catch up on the weekends.........WW
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Wind coverage comes with and flood coverage can be added to your homeowners insurance.


Automobile coverages are covered by your auto insurance.
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Quoting Weather456:
Is there such thing as Hurricane Insurance in the United States that covers properties, floods, cars, etc?


Wind coverage comes with and flood coverage can be added to your homeowners insurance.
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Quoting presslord:


Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please tell my wife to stop running the AC when it's 55 degrees outside!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tecnically speaking if you run the A/C when the ambient OAT is 55 the refrigerant pressure drops. This drop in pressure leads to a lower evaporating temperature. Normal evaporater temp is approximatley 40. With the lower pressures this drops the evaporater temperature into the 20's. Anything below roughly 29 will cause the coil to freeze. Ice build up on the coil will reduce the air flow across the evaporater coil causing the pressure to drop even further. With the lower pressure all of the refigerant cannot evaporate and gets back to the compressor in liquid form. Since liquid cannot be compressed the discharge valves on the compressor tend to break. With this in mind make sure you have a low ambient kit installed for low temp operation. I hope this helps.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is there such thing as Hurricane Insurance in the United States that covers properties, floods, cars, etc?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
TPC 72 hour position of the low pressure system heading into the central Caribbean:




Current Observations:
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Quoting presslord:
Thanks Drak!


Np Press!
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Thanks Drak!
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Thanks 456!
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Quoting presslord:


Isn't this pretty much the exact same scenario we were discussing a couple of weeks ago re: the SW Carib?


Not really. There is a more evidence of a lower to mid level cyclonic circulation. There is more model support as well.
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Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
Anything trying to brew in the southern end of GOM. I am teaching myself to read the maps. Please be patient with me and offer some sites more info on tropical developement. Just a hobby for me. If you need HVAC info I can help.


Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please tell my wife to stop running the AC when it's 55 degrees outside!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting presslord:


Isn't this pretty much the exact same scenario we were discussing a couple of weeks ago?


That is the first thing that came to mind. However, this is slightly different. If the models do keep, that would be one difference. Another difference would the forecasted pattern.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Anything trying to brew in the southern end of GOM. I am teaching myself to read the maps. Please be patient with me and offer some sites more info on tropical developement. Just a hobby for me. If you need HVAC info I can help.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
The 12Z GFS has trouble getting the system out the southwest Caribbean in the short-term. This could be because of poor handling or strong high pressure to the north of feature.

However the latter explanation cannot explain why the EURO gradually brings the low towards the north. There is actually a good weakness created NNW of the disturbance due to another developing system over the W GOM along the same time frame of this system.

It would be ironic if both does form.


Isn't this pretty much the exact same scenario we were discussing a couple of weeks ago re: the SW Carib?
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Say, is SQUAWK around? Pretty sure he'd know -- He's retired Navy; still lives near PAX.

TWC said something about the full moon (seriously, I'm not joking...) but I didn't listen as I thought it would have to do with tides and already-posted minimal coastal flooding. My TV is cutting in and out...in black, not even a "Standby" slate...but that's almost getting to be normal. I am NOT in love with digital (me being "older" broadcast producer).


Yup, I'm around. They had planned maintenance for the Terminal Dopplers today and then this happened:

000
NOUS61 KLWX 021754
FTMLWX

MESSAGE DATE: NOV 2 2009 17:53:22

DUE TO A COMMUNICATION PROBLEM, NO LWX STERLING, VA KDIX 88D WSR-88D
INFORMATION CAN BE DISSEMINATED. IT IS UNKNOWN WHEN THE PROBLEM
WILL BE RECTIFIED.

Seems like maybe the maint got something else screwed up.
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The 12Z GFS has trouble getting the system out the southwest Caribbean in the short-term. This could be because of poor handling or strong high pressure to the north of feature.

However the latter explanation cannot explain why the EURO gradually brings the low towards the north. There is actually a good weakness created NNW of the disturbance due to another developing system over the W GOM along the same time frame of this system.

It would be ironic if both does form.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Hope that helps some way.

P451. Just got back on, housecleaning day!
Thanks for advice -- lol, I always had techs to do this stuff for me (i.e., spoiled producer)!
I think I've burned out the batteries on my house tech (hubby) -- but we will look over, and really, thanks for the trouble; you and others.

It's getting so 'bout all we can stand on TV is BBC America and Nat. Geo. Channel (and I watch occasional trash & "House.")

I'm out again.
'
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Quoting Drakoen:


The only model not showing development is the NOGAPS.


I never relied much on that model in the first place. I think it had the worst performance when it came to forecasting Bill. Half of the models were showing possible tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean about 2 weeks ago. Now, it is nearly a 90% unanimity. Still, only time will tell.
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Quoting futuremet:


It has been a while since I saw something like this in this season.


The only model not showing development is the NOGAPS.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Nice model support in the short term to suspect an area worth watching.


It has been a while since I saw something like this in this season.
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Even the conservative UKMET is showing something.

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145. xcool
ECMWF make 4 time hit gom
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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