Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

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A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El NiƱo conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

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245. beell
Quoting Weather456:


If I'm not mistaken, the GFS brought that system into Florida.


W456, After about a week it did. Only to have the dominant low form over the Bahamas.

And, Drak, it is hard to ignore. Some of us might be doing other things if it didn't look blog-worthy!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Does eventually give it to Honduras/Belize than across to the Pac. Emerges 300 hours in.


Wondering if the GFS realizes its NOVEMBER not AUGUST. Rare although not unheard of for a system that forms in the ECAB to go into the pacific although I'm sure if it does.. it will somehow figure out a way to become a Monster hurricane.. seeing as the two strongest storms in the EPAC this season were both invests in the Atlantic.
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243. jipmg
Quoting Grothar:


Just looks messy, any type if circulation yet?


I think there is one
Quoting beell:


It also had a hard time bringing the last one out of the Caribbean-and nothing came out.

Something I have not been able to let go of yet, lol. I promised myself I would not get all worked up over another far south low in the Carib!



Does eventually give it to Honduras/Belize than across to the Pac. Emerges 300 hours in.
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Just looks messy, any type if circulation yet?
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Quoting beell:


It also had a hard time bringing the last one out of the Caribbean-and nothing came out.

Something I have not been able to let go of yet, lol. I promised myself I would not get all worked up over another far south low in the Carib!




If I'm not mistaken, the GFS brought that system into Florida.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting beell:


It also had a hard time bringing the last one out of the Caribbean-and nothing came out.

Something I have not been able to let go of yet, lol. I promised myself I would not get all worked up over another far south low in the Carib!




Yea it's hard to say with confidence that a tropical cyclone will form even though almost all the computer forecast models show a tropical cyclone forming. It's also hard to ignore what's going on down there in the southern Caribbean,
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
238. beell
Quoting Drakoen:


GFS seems to have a hard time ejecting the Caribbean system out of the Caribbean.


It also had a hard time bringing the last one out of the Caribbean-and nothing came out.

Something I have not been able to let go of yet, lol. I promised myself I would not get all worked up over another far south low in the Carib!


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would it have to do with GFS keeping steering weak?
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Quoting Drakoen:


GFS seems to have a hard time ejecting the Caribbean system out of the Caribbean.


yea
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Drakoen:


GFS seems to have a hard time ejecting the Caribbean system out of the Caribbean.


noticed that, why so? if you know.
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Quoting Weather456:


Bay of Campeche and Western Caribbean

wonder how that will play out.


GFS seems to have a hard time ejecting the Caribbean system out of the Caribbean.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
Quoting Drakoen:
18z GFS has Ida and Joaquin


Bay of Campeche and Western Caribbean

wonder how that will play out.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
232. IKE
18Z GFS through 174 hours.
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Quoting Drakoen:
18z GFS has Ida and Joaquin


will Joaquin rap for us?
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18z GFS has Ida and Joaquin
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
229. beell
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Quoting Weather456:






organizing a bit quicker than i thought it would.
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Tropical Depression 24W will come inland into the central Philippines noon tomorrow, UTC with little strengthening but, unquestionably will cause tremendous flooding due to its slow movement (6kts/hr).

Personal Hurricane Center.com
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226. jipmg
Looks to me like its drifting towards the north east




Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
224. beell
SSD Caribbean WV Loop
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Quoting ElConando:


guess sticking with NHC's interpretation is fine also.



As long as its not Accuweather's! :)


http://weatherunitedstates.blogspot.com

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Quoting Drakoen:


<30% chance


guess sticking with NHC's interpretation is fine also.
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Last but not least(18Z).... pretty decent low level 850MB VORT MAX:



Starting to build at 500MB (Mid level) too:

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Quoting ElConando:


true no EPAC low to contend with ATM. Would this disturbance have any chance of developing in the next 72 hrs?


<30% chance
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
Quoting superpete:
Hi CI.If you check W456 post 151 & 180,gives the general outline.In short,heading our way.Strength as yet not determined
Thanks. When I go home will be able to read more but I am still at work and i work on the computer so don't have the time to keepi up with it.
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218. jipmg
The low in the caribean is spinning pretty fast
Quoting Drakoen:


I see that as well. The other low is far from our low in the Caribbean. Hopefully Quickscat will catch the area tonight.


There's also lots of lower level convergence


Indeed...



An upper too:

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Quoting Drakoen:


I see that as well. The other low is far from our low in the Caribbean. Hopefully Quickscat will catch the area tonight.


There's also lots of lower level convergence


true no EPAC low to contend with ATM. Would this disturbance have any chance of developing in the next 72 hrs?
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Quoting Weather456:


have you noticed we don't have a battle of the lows.


We have that too much this season lol.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting Weather456:


have you noticed we don't have a battle of the lows.


They're well spaced this time. We shall see how it fairs DMIN and DMAX.
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Quoting Weather456:


have you noticed we don't have a battle of the lows.


I see that as well. The other low is far from our low in the Caribbean. Hopefully Quickscat will catch the area tonight.


There's also lots of lower level convergence
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
Quoting Drakoen:
Nice flash loop that you can speed up


have you noticed we don't have a battle of the lows.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
205. eeeeewwwwww.....well, you can claim your thousand bucks here
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good afternoon all. Just popped in for a second and kinda short on time so can someone please tell me how strong the system in the sw Caribbean is expected to get. TIA
Hi CI.If you check W456 post 151 & 180,gives the general outline.In short,heading our way.Strength as yet not determined
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Quoting NRAamy:
that is soooooooo off topic....

;)


LOL
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Quoting presslord:
pearland...the thong is on its' way...Where's the thousand bucks?


I know I don't want to know..
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207. beell
195.
Lol, tf-now be quiet and quit trying to cause trouble again!
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that is soooooooo off topic....

;)
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Good afternoon all. Just popped in for a second and kinda short on time so can someone please tell me how strong the system in the sw Caribbean is expected to get. TIA
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
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Quoting Weather456:
Is there such thing as Hurricane Insurance in the United States that covers properties, floods, cars, etc?

If you get homeowners (with windstorm coverage), flood insurance, and good car insurance, you have that, but you will also have a markedly slimmer wallet in the process.
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Quoting beell:
Anyway, a low is liable to pop up anywhere in a model if this scenario (post 193) has merit. If an extension of the ridge over the GOM works down into to MX as modeled, we might get a good pressure gradient with a nearby low to get something going in the BOC in advance of the next CONUS trough that turns it N.


Indeed... pressure gradient induced winds in the range between Breezy to Windy is the most likely scenario at this time(this is discounting the materialization of an actual organized tropical/subtropical system).
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Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
Nice flash loop that you can speed up
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
When Beell speaks...

It's like E.F. Hutton all over again.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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