Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

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A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

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343. bwdes
Ike, thanks for keeping your eyes on gulf,appreciate your insight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm not going to get concerned about the area of interest in the South Caribbean until I see KMan make a post. He seems to have a good layman's sense on these things.
.
.
That thing does seem to have spin and convection.
Do we have a quiksat?
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5560
Looks like they're skittish too. But preparing, sandbagging, as best they can.

Imminent flood threat prompts Newton County disaster declaration

November 02, 2009 9:28 AM

The threat of flooding has prompted the Newton County judge to issue a disaster declaration.

Newton County Judge Truman Dougharty issued the declaration Saturday afternoon. According to the declaration, there is an imminent threat of flooding from unusually high rainfall and outflow from Toledo Bend Reservoir within the County and the prediction of increased outflow on the Sabine River, and WHEREAS, the County Judge of Newton County has determined that extraordinary measures must be taken to alleviate the suffering of people and to protect or rehabilitate property

And for all those who just love to drive down flooded streets and pushing water into people's homes, this line's for you. (my two cents)

If you don't live in those subdivisions or have business there, stay away," said Sheriff Walker.

Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting MayFL:


What IKE said to you on the weekend was wrong and probably was not any help to your lack of enthusiam.
And further more. Long before you ever started posting here both Ike and W456 had very constructive debates which gave many of us followers very good positions to learn from...
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting MayFL:


What IKE said to you on the weekend was wrong and probably was not any help to your lack of enthusiam.
MayFL you need to give it a rest. Ike has been a part of this blog for a very, very long time. there are people here who see what you say and have seen the little persuasive words you keep trying to convince W456 what was said. I have read the coments and have seen that what Ike simply tried to say was that he may be right, he may be wrong, this is what he saw at the time and there are other things in life more important. You are doging very little to make yourself credible or respectable and quite frankly you could use quite a bit of compasion
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, it is still in the forecast. I would be sandbagging if I were there in a house prone to flooding...
Hopefully it doesn't happen...


Yeah, I'm with you on that. :(
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting BrowardJeff:

My car was parked in the garage during Wilma. The opening to the crawl space in the attic fell on it and messed up the hood. I had to file it against my car insurance, not my homeowners/windstorm policy.


Yes, I had to file on my car insurance too. Rita sheered of the passenger side window, busted the windshield, and broke part of the grill thing on the hood. And the various dings and dents. After Ike it was covered under the carport. So other than water on the floor boards it made it ok. Just enough to require a good airing out so no claim that time. I think our home owner's policy will cover someone else's car, that's not on our property if it is damaged by our trees, debris, etc. But that may have been the last policy. Lol. Heck getting old. Can't remember sh...uh anything. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting NRAamy:
328. clwstmchasr 4:18 PM PST on November 02, 2009
I guess I'm gun shy


I'm not...
Let's face it, Your not shy. Have you been following the flooding of rivers, streams, bayous etc. in LA. I hear there is some real potential for damage beyond what has already happened fromlast weeks rains
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting aquak9:
For shame, Cosmic, for shame...

(gigglesnort)

It's ok Aqua...you've ruined all my juvenile fantasies. Now, I picture that 'ol gal doing laundry, or pushing a vacuum cleaner.
.
Have to check my blog...I think I left her spinning...yikes.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5560
Quoting homelesswanderer:
And Atmo I'm glad that doesn't mean what it says about the homes with water in them.

Well, it is still in the forecast. I would be sandbagging if I were there in a house prone to flooding...
Hopefully it doesn't happen...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
333. xcool






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gosh it's good to see things are almost back to normal in Wunderland.

From Quotes of the Week, GolfChannel.com

"I told them this was closer to a FEMA disaster site than a golf course."

– Randy Watkins, tournament director for the Viking Classic (Madison, MS), on the conditions that forced the PGA Tour to cancel the event.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Ghost Lab - Murky Water Trailer

just something about the south, water & ghosts

LOVE IT!

it's worth the ban.

Good Evening All!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
328. clwstmchasr 4:18 PM PST on November 02, 2009
I guess I'm gun shy


I'm not...
your on the edge
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53518
328. clwstmchasr 4:18 PM PST on November 02, 2009
I guess I'm gun shy


I'm not...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting reedzone:


It's just immature to say it's over when conditions could be favorable this weekend. The possibility that we could see 2 storms could make this season like 2006, a normal season. We'll see what happens.
Quoting reedzone:


It's just immature to say it's over when conditions could be favorable this weekend. The possibility that we could see 2 storms could make this season like 2006, a normal season. We'll see what happens.


ACE speaking, 2009 is below normal
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
For shame, Cosmic, for shame...

(gigglesnort)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


Irony is something else. Every time someone says the season over, we get something to track.


It's just immature to say it's over when conditions could be favorable this weekend. The possibility that we could see 2 storms could make this season like 2006, a normal season. We'll see what happens.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
The EURO now joins in with developing a system in the Western Carribean and GOM. Could we really see Ida and Joaqin this weekend?? Stay tuned.


Irony is something else. Every time someone says the season over, we get something to track.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
316 and 318

Thanks I missed it
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
The EURO now joins in with developing a system in the Western Carribean and GOM. Could we really see Ida and Joaqin this weekend?? Stay tuned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
Hey Cosmic!!

If ya stare at it long enough, can ya make it spin in the opposite direction??

:)

LOL
I don't know, but if you add a pair of blobs.... of convection, I'll give it a try.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5560
Quoting Weather456:
Can someone tell me if the 2nd area was mentioned at 2PM



563

ABNT20 KNHC 021759

TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

100 PM EST MON NOV 2 2009



FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...



SHOWERS ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL

GALE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND THEN TURN

NORTHEASTWARD WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW

CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL

OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL

INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO

HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.



AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EXTREME

SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW

PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53518
Quoting IKE:


Yup...got a window open on it. Usually keep a satellite loop going all day.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER
WATERS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN A
DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Be interested to see what becomes of this. do not believe anything serious. Possibly a lot of rain making it into areas that have already had to much....Oh man....Dinner bell See ya all later.....
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Yes 456...actually with the time change, 1:00 p.m. EST
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11102
Hey Cosmic!!

If ya stare at it long enough, can ya make it spin in the opposite direction??

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Isn't that thing in the Caribbean a TD! If not, why not?
It's got more spin than:
1. Chubby Checker
2. A political analyst
3. A dreidel


Does it have more spin than that one blog post you made??? OOOoooOOOooo I get dizzy just thinking about that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can someone tell me if the 2nd area was mentioned at 2PM

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Nothing happpening with this in the Gulf...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11102
Isn't that thing in the Caribbean a TD! If not, why not?
It's got more spin than:
1. Chubby Checker
2. A political analyst
3. A dreidel
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5560
Quoting NRAamy:
Hello Mr. Eyes...
And a wonmderful "good eve to you too. All is well I hope. BTW sunny and beautiful here today
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
309. IKE
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Glad to hear good things Ike. The GOM has a fascinating vis sat right now. Have you seen it?


Yup...got a window open on it. Usually keep a satellite loop going all day.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BERMUDA IS PRODUCING MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER
WATERS AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN A
DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Good evening.

I've had a good day at my job. Fixing to eat my wife's delicious chili.

I know what I'll be doing in the morning.

Off-topic...sorry...lol.
Glad to hear good things Ike. The GOM has a fascinating vis sat right now. Have you seen it?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting Weather456:
yep its spinning
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53518
306. IKE
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


Not just off-topic, but kinda disgusting too lol


LOL...true. Like eating turnip greens.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting IKE:


Good evening.

I've had a good day at my job. Fixing to eat my wife's delicious chili.

I know what I'll be doing in the morning.

Off-topic...sorry...lol.


Not just off-topic, but kinda disgusting too lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hello Mr. Eyes...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
303. IKE
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Good evening Ike


Good evening.

I've had a good day at my job. Fixing to eat my wife's delicious chili.

I know what I'll be doing in the morning.

Off-topic...sorry...lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
301. eyesontheweather
11:55 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting NRAamy:
careful Keeper...Junkie is gonna narc us all out....
Ms. Amy, Hello
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
300. eyesontheweather
11:53 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting IKE:
I'm on-topic(WOOHOO!)....with this from Accuweather...

".... broad low pressure covering the northwest Caribbean. Computer forecasts are showing a very slow evolving storm system near or over the Yucatan of Mexico toward the end of this week or over the weekend. Recent water temperature analysis indicates very warm water is still in place over the northwest Caribbean and vertical wind shear will remain relatively light much of this week. So, if a storm attempts to form in this area it might take a few days. However, once it starts wrapping up it will have the atmospheric and oceanic support for further development. So, anything developing from this area of disturbed weather is not expected to become a feature of concern until the end of this week or over the upcoming weekend.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski"
Good evening Ike
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
299. unf97
11:52 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting IKE:
I'm on-topic(WOOHOO!)....with this from Accuweather...

".... broad low pressure covering the northwest Caribbean. Computer forecasts are showing a very slow evolving storm system near or over the Yucatan of Mexico toward the end of this week or over the weekend. Recent water temperature analysis indicates very warm water is still in place over the northwest Caribbean and vertical wind shear will remain relatively light much of this week. So, if a storm attempts to form in this area it might take a few days. However, once it starts wrapping up it will have the atmospheric and oceanic support for further development. So, anything developing from this area of disturbed weather is not expected to become a feature of concern until the end of this week or over the upcoming weekend.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski"


This is in line of what the Tallahassee forecasters were mentioning in their long range discussion as well, which is out lined in the GFS models.

It will be interesting to see if this evolves going through this week and into the weekend.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
298. BrowardJeff
11:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Sometimes, depending on your policy, your homeowners insurance will cover cars. But usually your car insurance covers those damages.

My car was parked in the garage during Wilma. The opening to the crawl space in the attic fell on it and messed up the hood. I had to file it against my car insurance, not my homeowners/windstorm policy.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 5 Comments: 938
297. pearlandaggie
11:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
LOL @ 290!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
296. homelesswanderer
11:51 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
Quoting NRAamy:
careful homeless...you're off topic...


Yipe! You are correct. :) Thanks for the warning. Wouldn't want you, me or Eddie...um Keeper to get a ban. Lol. And yep Beall, I'll be watching. As you said little hard to ignore. And all things considered, I'd much rather just the rain. If we get anything. And Atmo I'm glad that doesn't mean what it says about the homes with water in them.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
295. IKE
11:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009
I'm on-topic(WOOHOO!)....with this from Accuweather...

".... broad low pressure covering the northwest Caribbean. Computer forecasts are showing a very slow evolving storm system near or over the Yucatan of Mexico toward the end of this week or over the weekend. Recent water temperature analysis indicates very warm water is still in place over the northwest Caribbean and vertical wind shear will remain relatively light much of this week. So, if a storm attempts to form in this area it might take a few days. However, once it starts wrapping up it will have the atmospheric and oceanic support for further development. So, anything developing from this area of disturbed weather is not expected to become a feature of concern until the end of this week or over the upcoming weekend.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.