Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

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A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chicklit:
Evening, Wunderfolk.
Can someone explain how the SW Caribbean blob going to get past the shear?

Link


Well 2 things

#1 this area is expected to not move much at all over the next 3-4 days

#2 shear is expected to become much more favorable by that time
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I'm not sure of the direction! I know it will change but?
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Evening, Wunderfolk.
Can someone explain how the SW Caribbean blob going to get past the shear?

Link
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Quoting Weather456:


Futuremet,

LINK


Thanks
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is all that dry air north of the Carib. disturbance suppose to go away soon?


You tell me

Lower right

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076


It better stay south for a while....Shear will RIP it to shreads.....
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I believe we will be close to having a TD in 24 hrs.


Really Tim? I trust your instincts...but it really doesn't look good now. A TD by this time tomorrow night? I would say not. An Invest, perhaps.
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Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
Quoting ackee:
whhen do u guys think SW carrb distrubance will be an invest ?
if it persists and builds and organizes further within the next 12 to 24 hrs
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I would think an Invest would be coming any time.....like NOW would be nice to start the computers going.....but, they and i agree usually like to have a closed low most often.
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Is all that dry air north of the Carib. disturbance suppose to go away soon?
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Futuremet,

LINK
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
382. jipmg
Quoting TampaSpin:
I believe we will be close to having a TD in 24 hrs.


I definately agree...
I believe we will be close to having a TD in 24 hrs.
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380. ackee
whhen do u guys think SW carrb distrubance will be an invest ?
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here is a shot of both areas BOC and SW CARB.

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377. jipmg
So right now the model consensus a slow North movement, and then either turning North west or West or even North east?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
There any models around predicting that LLC's path Drak?


Heading slowly north in the Caribbean and organizing.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
Interesting graphic on the SFWMD model page..

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Appears to be wrapping now...Invest should be coming real soon.
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How do you guys get these plymouth state images?
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't know why NHC does not activate a floater on an AOI unless it cost money to do so and it saves funds....? I don't know! If a satellite is in place i don't get it. Do they rent the time out from others that own the product?


I do think placing a floater would cause funds since we can make a floater using the NASA page. Since we are talking about geostationary satellites all they do is crop an area and keep a floater on it. They don't physically adjust the satellites.

Now INVESTs on the other hand may (I dont know for sure) acquire funds. An invest is really an area designated by the NHC for investigation by computer models, aircraft reccon or any other specific product.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
370. xcool
TampaSpin thank
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I don't know why NHC does not activate a floater on an AOI unless it cost money to do so and it saves funds....? I don't know! If a satellite is in place i don't get it. Do they rent the time out from others that own the product?


I think a different agency decides where to place the floaters.
Please Note: These images do not originate from the NHC website. The SSD Tropical Satellite Imagery System Status
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I don't know why NHC does not activate a floater on an AOI unless it cost money to do so and it saves funds....? I don't know! If a satellite is in place i don't get it. Do they rent the time out from others that own the product?
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Doesn't look to hot at the moment

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366. jipmg
it MIGHT be getting its act together.. the convection looks to be wrapping into our low
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Pretty interesting stuff in Dr. Rood's blog...
Link
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Photobucket
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Small LLC in the southern Caribbean:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
And what better way to celebrate Christmas than with the perfect gift for the Weather Enthusiast!

Link

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Quoting jipmg:
We might have 97L soon


AOI/XX/L
MARK
11.1N/81.1W
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Hard to believe with the Christmas season in full swing in the stores…we may still have a few surprises left in the tropics.
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Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin hi keeping up good working!!!


Thanks! Your graphics you post are incredible......Great job!
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353. jipmg
We might have 97L soon
Quoting AussieStorm:
Experts tip quiet cyclone season
Kristy Sexton McGrath,
November 3, 2009

The cyclone season has officially started but weather forecasters are predicting a quiet season.

Cairns weather forecaster Peter Otto says there are usually about four cyclones each season, with one or two of those crossing the coast.

But he says an El Nino weather pattern that is developing will push cyclones away from the coast.

"It's trying to develop and with that sort of a weather pattern, the winds up above the Australian continent tend to push any cyclones further out to sea," he said.

"So it doesn't mean that we won't get an impact along the coast somewhere, but it improves the odds of a cyclone staying out to sea a bit."

Mr Otto says he expects a drop in the number of cyclones crossing the coast.

"This year, it looks like with the El Nino environment happening ... cyclones are more likely to try and stay offshore," he said.

"That doesn't mean we won't get an impact."

- ABC


I presented a similar overview of cyclogenesis in the Southern Hemisphere early in September.

El Nino affects the Australia region as it does the Atlantic (downward motion and outflow (shear) aloft). It's just opposite ends of the spectrum.

I also pointed to the fact that the warm-pool will shift into the CPAC away from the WPAC, sparing the east coast of Aus but placing the Pacific Islands in more danger this year.

The SW Indian Ocean maybe more active than usual.

And the FIJI area of concern.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
351. xcool
TampaSpin hi keeping up good working!!!
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Experts tip quiet cyclone season
Kristy Sexton McGrath,
November 3, 2009

The cyclone season has officially started but weather forecasters are predicting a quiet season.

Cairns weather forecaster Peter Otto says there are usually about four cyclones each season, with one or two of those crossing the coast.

But he says an El Nino weather pattern that is developing will push cyclones away from the coast.

"It's trying to develop and with that sort of a weather pattern, the winds up above the Australian continent tend to push any cyclones further out to sea," he said.

"So it doesn't mean that we won't get an impact along the coast somewhere, but it improves the odds of a cyclone staying out to sea a bit."

Mr Otto says he expects a drop in the number of cyclones crossing the coast.

"This year, it looks like with the El Nino environment happening ... cyclones are more likely to try and stay offshore," he said.

"That doesn't mean we won't get an impact."

- ABC
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So Season isn't over just yet, SW caribbean is spining. At least for now, I see some model support on this feature, Florida?? Maybe...
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Quoting MayFL:


You obviously did not see what happen.
Read very closely....Get out of their business. Quite potsting every chance you get to diss someone in an effort to make matters more difficult. They are both mature and inteligent people who could/can resolve their differences without your peanut gallery remarks...
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homeless- good post, thanks, pics look scary
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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