Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

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A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

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445. ackee
dont think SW carrb system will develop see it fighting another low epac same sernario that play out last time low try to devlop SW carrb will happen again
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


nah it wont develop lol

remember its 2009 so its RIP right? LOL


i've noticed i've RIPed more than usual in 2009 if you know what I mean.
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443. xcool
lolol
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442. xcool





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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interesting.



nah it wont develop lol

remember its 2009 so its RIP right? LOL
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Interesting.

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Well after looking at the latest satellite image, Invest 97L will be designated very soon. Looks like crow may be fed to alot of people if this forms.
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Quoting ElConando:


Very true but it is not going to go to far north anytime soon.


a slow drift to the North or NNW over the next week or so seems probable. should be an invest soon.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Its worth watching the low pressure system down in the southern caribbean the next few days as it seems to be trying to organize this evening with deep thunderstorm activity near the llc. I suspect TPC with the present model trends and organzition will go to code orange.

Upper conditions to its north are questionable.


Very true but it is not going to go to far north anytime soon.
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Its worth watching the low pressure system down in the southern caribbean the next few days as it seems to be trying to organize this evening with deep thunderstorm activity near the llc. I suspect TPC with the present model trends and organzition will go to code orange.

Upper conditions to its north are questionable.
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435. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "TINO" has weakened into a Low Pressure Area

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
===============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Tino located at 17.5ºN 122.6ºE or 120 kms north northeast of Casiguran, Aurora has weakened into a low pressure area

Additional Information
======================
Public storm warning signals elsewhere now lowered.

However, the Eastern section of Northern and Central Luzon will have occasional to frequent rains which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

With this development and unless regeneration occurs, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.
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Looks like what LLC there was has drifted into Panama....probably heading into the Pacific possibly.......Nite all.
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Nothing there yet........NITe all!
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I believe this one could move either do north or north east ,pulling something similar to Lenny(Nov.1999) if it were to get stronger, after all the stirring currents have a tendency more to N or even NE, this time of the year.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
looks like it's drawing moisture from the Pacific
After this I think I'll hibernate until may

I'm off to hibernate for the night.
See you all tomorrow.
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Absolutely nothing at the surface close to being closed.....

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looks like it's drawing moisture from the Pacific
After this I think I'll hibernate until may
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Quoting winter123:


Curious... does it ever hit freezing in a place like Miami, or is that more of a freak record low type thing?


Once in a while it hits freezing or a little lower - causes real issues for the farmers though.
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We get down to the 30's occasionally down here in West Palm / Lake Worth. The best days are when the highs are in the 50's. For a native Floridian, that is nice.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'm waiting for that first artic blast to make it down to so. Fla.!


Curious... does it ever hit freezing in a place like Miami, or is that more of a freak record low type thing?
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Countdown Clock
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I'm waiting for that first artic blast to make it down to so. Fla.!
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Quoting zoomiami:
Irony would be if we actually had a system to track for longer than 3 days in November, the last month of the season.



28days 1 hr 23 mins remain
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Quoting winter123:


weird...

corrected link
thanks 123 i fixed it as well
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Irony would be if we actually had a system to track for longer than 3 days in November, the last month of the season.

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Quoting TampaSpin:
The Shear map i use and like does not show Shear decreasing for 4days if anything it increases....it needs to stay south to survive.

click to loop.....


Won't move too much so its got that on its side.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link


weird...

corrected link
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
416. JRRP
Quoting winter123:
Geez.. all i had to do to wake this season up is say "I'm leaving JM's Blog for 4 days"... then suddenly theres a TD forming in the carribean! It brought me out of hiding 3 days early...

+1
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Geez.. all i had to do to wake this season up is say "I'm leaving JM's Blog for 4 days"... then suddenly theres a TD forming in the carribean! It brought me out of hiding 3 days early...
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Link
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haha...because your answer wasn't an answer
and my definition didn't explain anything...
please laugh. it's funny.
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412. JRRP
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Quoting Chicklit:

that wasn't it 456.
It was "not sure why the definition" part that seemed a bit caustic. Anyway, I am not one to judge. Best Regards.


Well it is as I stated.

I was literally not sure why the definition was given.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


I was just trying to answer your question but forgive me if it came out the wrong way.

Night


Good night everyone else....till 2mr.

that wasn't it 456.
It was "not sure why the definition" part that seemed a bit caustic. Anyway, I am not one to judge. Best Regards.
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Quoting Chicklit:
you say, "simple. upper level ridging."
So i look up the term.
anyway, goodnight.


I was just trying to answer your question but forgive me if it came out the wrong way.

Night


Good night everyone else....till 2mr.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Shear map i use and like does not show Shear decreasing for 4days if anything it increases....it needs to stay south to survive.

click to loop.....


that is in 4 days, if you notice the shear is pretty low all the way up to the very NW part of the Caribbean. The system is still going to be near Nicaragua at that point, so even based on your map, shear will still be favorable
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405. jipmg
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Shear map i use and like does not show Shear decreasing for 4days if anything it increases....it needs to stay south to survive.

click to loop.....


Notice how a ridge develops in the carribean, the shear is up over cuba
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you say, "simple. upper level ridging."
So i look up the term.
anyway, goodnight.
thanks, gordy, for your civil answer.
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Here is may guess Chicklit the upper level winds are much stronger the higher you go on the MB maps, so I have noticed the surface winds have lighten up over the past 24 hrs. Some of the models predict a weak storm this is because the higher level winds are rather intense but they are rather gradually increasing with height this may allow a weak system to persist.
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Quoting Chicklit:

(¦əp·ər ¦lev·əl ′rij)
(meteorology) A pressure ridge existing in the upper air, especially one that is stronger aloft than near the earth's surface. Also known as high-level ridge; ridge aloft; upper ridge
Link
Anyway...there currently appears to be 40 knots of shear surrounded by 30 knots of shear smack dab in the warm waters of the central Caribbean Sea.


I'm not sure of two things:

why the definition

and why look at shear now, the disturbance is slow moving and developing so the shear forecast is what really concerns us.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
The Shear map i use and like does not show Shear decreasing for 4days if anything it increases....it needs to stay south to survive.

click to loop.....
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Quoting Weather456:


Simple,

Upper ridging

(¦əp·ər ¦lev·əl ′rij)
(meteorology) A pressure ridge existing in the upper air, especially one that is stronger aloft than near the earth's surface. Also known as high-level ridge; ridge aloft; upper ridge
Link
Anyway...there currently appears to be 40 knots of shear surrounded by 30 knots of shear smack dab in the warm waters of the central Caribbean Sea.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I'm not sure of the direction! I know it will change but?


The disturbance is embedded within weak steering flow so is vulnerable to any large scale weather patterns/systems. The northerly bias comes from a trough passing to the north. The trough does not have to dig towards the system just tug or influence some kind of weakness.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
397. skook
Quoting TampaSpin:
I believe we will be close to having a TD in 24 hrs.



We have only heard this 50 times so far this season.... lol.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Evening, Wunderfolk.
Can someone explain how the SW Caribbean blob going to get past the shear?

Link


Simple,

Upper ridging
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

Quoting Chicklit:
Evening, Wunderfolk.
Can someone explain how the SW Caribbean blob going to get past the shear?

Link


Well 2 things

#1 this area is expected to not move much at all over the next 3-4 days

#2 shear is expected to become much more favorable by that time
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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