Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

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A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

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This channel is useful for looking at the lower level structure of disturbances

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Naked Swirl in the Round
(sung to the tune of "There's a New Kid in Town")


There's talk on the blog; it sounds so familiar
Great expectations, everybody's watching it
Convection retreats, well over the deep blue
It's just like the other ones there's nothing new

Subtropical spinner, naked swirl in the round
Everybody sees you, but you let them down

You look at the mods; the colors begin to play
Hopeless believers, here we go again
But after awhile, you're bloggin' another way
It's those crazy storms that never form

Johnny come lately, naked swirl in the round
Will we still watch you when you're not around?
There's so many things you could have shown us,
but day by slow day you've turned into another bust,
Another bust, no weather for us!

There's talk on the blog, it's there to
Remind you, that it doesn't really matter
which side you're on.
It's swirling away and they're talking about you
They will never forget you 'til some other storm comes along
Where you been lately? Naked swirl in the round
Everybody watches it, don't they?
Now it's over, but you're still around
Oh, my, my
Naked swirl in the round
just another naked swirl in the round
Ooh, hoo
Everybody's talking 'bout the naked swirl in the round,
Ooh, hoo
Everybody's bloggin' 'bout the naked swirl in the round
There's a naked swirl in the round
Theres a naked swirl in the round people can't stop bloggin'
There's a naked swirl in the round
I don't want to hear it
There's a naked swirl in the round
I don't want to hear it
There's a naked swirl in the round
There's a naked swirl in the round
There's a naked swirl in the round
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Last comment for the day, then I'll let the pros take over. At this time of year if this system does develop I bet it will be a dozy to forecast as they can pretty much go anywhere depending on the strength and speed of the fronts. Here we go loop t loop.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




97L SHIPS Text


Nice

Exactly what I was thinking

west of north.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076




97L SHIPS Text
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10918
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
No big drop in bp on any of the buoys around the system, but they are not that close. I still say if you look at the shear map most of the intense shear is very high up in the atmosphere. I think this supports modest development.
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97L coordinates adjusted

AL, 97, 2009110312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 815W, 25, 1009, DB
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Looking at the steering flow, it looks more like June than November. Most of the models have 97L with some westward component at the end of their forecast cycles and for good reason. There is a solid deep layer ridge positioned offshore the E USA in 7 days with the next trough still over the Central CONUS. The system will systematically follow the flow around the high and towards the weakness - towards the NW. If the system takes longer to move towards the north, it can take a more northerly track since the trough will edge more east and push the high further out in time.

If the system is faster than expected then ridging will take it NW until it finds the weakness.

the 00Z ECMWF takes it all the way to Texas and the GFS takes it across the Yucatan.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
484. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I'd say at least a red circle at 2pm, nice presentation on the rgb at nhc site.As a matter of fact looking at that floater this is the best unnamed system of the year. Looks better than some that have been named.
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Thanks Ike looks to be great weather. And I still say the Doc did a nice call on 97L last week. Wonder what he will have to say on next update. Hope he stays a way from you know what topic, as that seems to make everyone apoplectic.
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481. IKE
RAMSDIS has a floater on what will be 97L.

EDIT>>>That didn't take long. It is 97L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
We have 97L

AL, 97, 2009110312, , BEST, 0, 98N, 816W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good morning, I see we have a orange circle in the extreme SW caribbean. I guess it will soon be tagged 97L, if not already.


97L soon.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Blog Update

Watching the SW Caribbean; Invest 96L revived

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Good morning, I see we have a orange circle in the extreme SW caribbean. I guess it will soon be tagged 97L, if not already.
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Thanks for posting my discussion portcharlotte.


Quoting portcharlotte:
Here is the Crown Wx Discussion on the tropics this AM


Possible Development In The Southwest Caribbean:

I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather located in the southwest corner of the Caribbean this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deeper thunderstorm activity this morning along with a evident spin in the clouds. QuikSCAT showed no low-level circulation, so I suspect that there is a mid-level circulation associated with this area of disturbed weather. Wind shear analysis indicates that there is around 10 knots of shear in this area and this is favorable for development. The entire area of disturbed weather is stationary and the wind aloft around this system are very weak and this suggests little movement over the next couple of days.

There are three possibilities for this system:

The first is that this system remains nearly stationary for the next two to three days and then tracks slowly northwestward just offshore of the coast of Central America this weekend before coming onshore on the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. The first scenario is being forecast by the GFS model.

The second possible scenario is that the energy and moisture from this system is pushed westward into Panama and eventually the eastern Pacific as we head into this weekend and next week. This is being forecast by the NOGAPS model.

The third possible scenario is that this system remains stationary through the end of this week and then tracks northward to near the Cayman Islands by Monday morning and then is pushed west-northwest by building high pressure to the north and it brushes the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late next Tuesday. This is being forecast by the European model.

Right now, I’m leaning more towards scenarios 1 and 3 and think that this system will remain nearly stationary for the next two to three days and that we will start seeing some forward motion from it this weekend. A track northwestward through the western Caribbean is quite possible this weekend into early next week with development and intensification through this entire timeframe. In addition to all of this, it appears that this area is supportive of development as wind shear profiles are forecast to be favorable for at least the next few days and the synoptic setup in this entire area is still summer-like and this area still has not experienced a strong enough cold front to end the Hurricane Season.

So, here is my thinking of this system: First, I am very surprised that this system has not been designated an Invest and I strongly suspect that it will be tagged as an Invest at some point today. I expect slow development over the next two to three days as this disturbed weather remains stationary over the southwest corner of the Caribbean. It would not surprise me to see this system upgraded to a tropical depression by the end of this week. By this weekend, I think this system will slowly track northwestward just offshore of the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua as it slowly intensifies. As we get into next week, I think this system will be in the western Caribbean, possibly as a tropical storm, on Monday or Tuesday halfway between Belize and the Cayman Islands.

I will be keeping a very close eye on this area of disturbed weather and will keep you all updated. All interests in the western and southwestern Caribbean should keep close tabs on the progress of this area of disturbed weather. Check back at least once a day for the latest.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
474. IKE
Quoting gordydunnot:
Yeah we hope the dolphins dont beat up New England to much this week as they do need to go to New Orleans with a good attitude to preserve the undefeated season. Whats the weather for Foxboro look like this weekend.



Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s.

Sunday Night and Monday
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
473. IKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Yeah we hope the dolphins dont beat up New England to much this week as they do need to go to New Orleans with a good attitude to preserve the undefeated season. Whats the weather for Foxboro look like this weekend.
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Good morning...
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469. IKE
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
well ike, no one can say you waffle your opinion this cane season lol. ike you hang in there.if people are not mature enough to respect someone elses opinion, right or wrong then they lack maturity. sorry about your kidney problems, i watched my father suffer with that prayers go out to you. now i will give you this to chew on. juan in 1985 was a hurricane that was considered a hybrid that was not affected by shear, and was steered to n/central gulf coast because of unusual high that set for that time of the season. well just a thought, have a good day and God bless. ps goooooo saints 7-0 whodat.


Thanks.

NO Saints may go 16-0 in the regular season.

Remaining schedule...

Nov. 8 CAROLINA PANTHERS 3:05 pm FOX

Nov. 15 at St. Louis Rams Noon FOX

Nov. 22 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Noon FOX

Nov. 30 NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Monday) 7:30 pm ESPN

Dec. 6 at Washington Redskins Noon FOX

Dec. 13 at Atlanta Falcons Noon FOX

Dec. 19 DALLAS COWBOYS (Saturday) 7:20 pm NFLN

Dec. 27 TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS Noon FOX

Jan. 3 at Carolina Panthers Noon FOX


Now back to the weather.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
well ike, no one can say you waffle your opinion this cane season lol. ike you hang in there.if people are not mature enough to respect someone elses opinion, right or wrong then they lack maturity. sorry about your kidney problems, i watched my father suffer with that prayers go out to you. now i will give you this to chew on. juan in 1985 was a hurricane that was considered a hybrid that was not affected by shear, and was steered to n/central gulf coast because of unusual high that set for that time of the season. well just a thought, have a good day and God bless. ps goooooo saints 7-0 whodat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
466. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Good morning

Look what we have here

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
463. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
weather does not care what us bloggers think


LOL. Thank God.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
461. IKE
Quoting portcharlotte:



Agreed, but nothing is forever. This one seems to have more organization than the others IMO


Agree. It does look much better than 94L.

NHC may go to a 30-50% chance on it. Look for 97L today.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
460. IKE
It won't be making it to the northern GOM in the next week, if the 6Z GFS shear profile is correct. It would be sheared to death....

6Z GFS at 168 hours...shear...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
459. 789
Quoting IKE:
I could see this system becoming a tropical storm, at the most.

One thing that I take into account. This is the 156th day of the season. There has been no tropical depression or tropical storm that has either...formed or moved through the western or SW Caribbean sea.

That's not to say it won't happen. Just a fact.
reverse phsycology
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Quoting IKE:
I could see this system becoming a tropical storm, at the most.

One thing that I take into account. This is the 156th day of the season. There has been no tropical depression or tropical storm that has either...formed or moved through the western or SW Caribbean sea the entire season.

That's not to say it won't happen. Just a fact.



Agreed, but nothing is forever. This one seems to have more organization than the others IMO
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457. IKE
I could see this system becoming a tropical storm, at the most.

One thing that I take into account. This is the 156th day of the season. There has been no tropical depression or tropical storm that has either...formed or moved through the western or SW Caribbean sea the entire season.

That's not to say it won't happen. Just a fact.

***I'll probably get hammered for saying, "just a fact". Go ahead, I'm a big boy. I can take it.***
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Here is the Crown Wx Discussion on the tropics this AM


Possible Development In The Southwest Caribbean:

I am closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather located in the southwest corner of the Caribbean this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deeper thunderstorm activity this morning along with a evident spin in the clouds. QuikSCAT showed no low-level circulation, so I suspect that there is a mid-level circulation associated with this area of disturbed weather. Wind shear analysis indicates that there is around 10 knots of shear in this area and this is favorable for development. The entire area of disturbed weather is stationary and the wind aloft around this system are very weak and this suggests little movement over the next couple of days.

There are three possibilities for this system:

The first is that this system remains nearly stationary for the next two to three days and then tracks slowly northwestward just offshore of the coast of Central America this weekend before coming onshore on the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. The first scenario is being forecast by the GFS model.

The second possible scenario is that the energy and moisture from this system is pushed westward into Panama and eventually the eastern Pacific as we head into this weekend and next week. This is being forecast by the NOGAPS model.

The third possible scenario is that this system remains stationary through the end of this week and then tracks northward to near the Cayman Islands by Monday morning and then is pushed west-northwest by building high pressure to the north and it brushes the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late next Tuesday. This is being forecast by the European model.

Right now, I’m leaning more towards scenarios 1 and 3 and think that this system will remain nearly stationary for the next two to three days and that we will start seeing some forward motion from it this weekend. A track northwestward through the western Caribbean is quite possible this weekend into early next week with development and intensification through this entire timeframe. In addition to all of this, it appears that this area is supportive of development as wind shear profiles are forecast to be favorable for at least the next few days and the synoptic setup in this entire area is still summer-like and this area still has not experienced a strong enough cold front to end the Hurricane Season.

So, here is my thinking of this system: First, I am very surprised that this system has not been designated an Invest and I strongly suspect that it will be tagged as an Invest at some point today. I expect slow development over the next two to three days as this disturbed weather remains stationary over the southwest corner of the Caribbean. It would not surprise me to see this system upgraded to a tropical depression by the end of this week. By this weekend, I think this system will slowly track northwestward just offshore of the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua as it slowly intensifies. As we get into next week, I think this system will be in the western Caribbean, possibly as a tropical storm, on Monday or Tuesday halfway between Belize and the Cayman Islands.

I will be keeping a very close eye on this area of disturbed weather and will keep you all updated. All interests in the western and southwestern Caribbean should keep close tabs on the progress of this area of disturbed weather. Check back at least once a day for the latest.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
454. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST TUE NOV 03 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PRES GRADIENT LEADING TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WED NIGHT...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM THE N AND NW. AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE NW THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND STALLS OUT NEAR THE NW CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT INTO WED.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion


TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THIS BLEND WHERE THE 12Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING INDICATED OTHERWISE...SUCH AS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO WHERE ONE LOW FORMS IN THE GULF BAROCLINICALLY DUE TO THE APPROACH OF A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A POSSIBLE TROPICAL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SOLUTION MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY.



HPC Preliminary Graphics



UKMET Office


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.6N 82.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.11.2009 11.6N 82.8W WEAK
00UTC 04.11.2009 10.9N 81.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.11.2009 11.0N 82.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.11.2009 11.6N 83.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.11.2009 11.8N 82.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2009 11.8N 82.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.11.2009 11.7N 82.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2009 12.7N 81.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.11.2009 12.9N 82.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2009 12.5N 82.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2009 13.5N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2009 13.7N 82.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10918
452. IKE
Quoting IKE:
00Z ECMWF.



ECMWF has lost quite a bit of it's model support this morning, for a system moving up into the northern GOM.

Whatever is down in the SW GOM or SW Caribbean looks to stay down there for the rest of the week.

00Z CMC.


00Z UKMET.


6Z NOGAPS.


6Z GFS.


27 days
19 hours...or

667 hours and the season is finished.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
This is just getting worse by the minute. I'm not a fan of any model bringing rain to TX. Tropical or otherwise. :(

Flood Waters Threaten Deweyville

News KBMT
Shane Doyle
Heavy rain has overfilled the Toledo Bend Reservoir. Now the Sabine River Authority are opening the flood gates. There are 11 gates opened 6'-wide, which is about 75,000 cubic feet per second. That's almost 50-billion gallons in a 24-hour period. The Sabine River is already above the flood stage at 24.5'. Link

Cattle herder missing in floodwaters

A man herding cattle has disappeared in Liberty County floodwaters, and relatives in Beaumont are anxiously awaiting the outcome of the search. Link

Red Cross preparing to help flood victims
Link

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450. IKE
00Z ECMWF.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


nah it wont develop lol

remember its 2009 so its RIP right? LOL


My hopes are getting up, this thing looks amazing,... But you are right. NO chance. The weather channel said that for 96L and they are right, probably saying it for this thing too.
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Quoting gordydunnot:
I'm out tonight I hope everyone is happy its such a pleasant blog now. Oh please dont band me or I will just die.


band you?

oops. I was off topic. :O
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
447. xcool
Link



new models
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
I'm out tonight I hope everyone is happy its such a pleasant blog now. Oh please dont band me or I will just die.
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445. ackee
dont think SW carrb system will develop see it fighting another low epac same sernario that play out last time low try to devlop SW carrb will happen again
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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