Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

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A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El NiƱo conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Check out the Convergence in the BOC....WOW!

I know Shear is high and good thing it is...





That convergence is not due to cyclonic turning.

That convergence is caused when the northerly winds behind the front meet the terrain of Mexico and slows down as it flows though the valleys of the isthmus of Tehauntepec. Anytime air slows down convergence occurs.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
544. Skyepony (Mod)
97L floater isn't aimed anywhere near where Navy has 97L...
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Quoting Skyepony:
Fresh quikscat. Misses 97L, nothing going on at the surface in the GOM, trying out there in the EPAC..



It can't. Have you ever heard the Tehauntepec Wind event. Gale to storm force northerly winds will prevent any circulation from forming during the passage of strong fronts.

Now imagine if the the isthmus of Tehauntepec (the narrow area between the Yucatan and Mainland Mexico) did not have a valley for the north winds to blow though. Then they would round the coast of the Bay of Campeche and there would always be enough circulation for something to develop.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
542. Skyepony (Mod)
97L floater isn't aimed anywhere near where Navy has 97L
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Check out the Convergence in the BOC....WOW!

I know Shear is high and good thing it is...



Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
539. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh quikscat. Misses 97L, nothing going on at the surface in the GOM, trying out there in the EPAC..

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97L Floater Page
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Quoting portcharlotte:


456 I have a question. If a low forms in the southwest Gulf would that feature tend to deepen the trough more than expected and cause more northward movement of the Carib system?...


Not deepen the trough but extend the weakness, sort of a bridge connection, this is most effective if the cyclone is subtropical or extra tropical.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076





Last frame.....
97L is looking rather sick....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Skyepony:
456~ good point. It's pretty much how we got Claudette. End of front + tropical wave. I found it worth an outside chance, atleast at this point.


and 90L
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


now only that but end of the fronts count for about 10% of TCs, 2nd to tropical waves.


456 I have a question. If a low forms in the southwest Gulf would that feature tend to deepen the trough more than expected and cause more northward movement of the Carib system?...
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532. Skyepony (Mod)
456~ good point. It's pretty much how we got Claudette. End of front + tropical wave. I found it worth an outside chance, atleast at this point.
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area of squally weather heading for the centarl windward islands. there has also been a blow up of convection near 12n 50w. there is also evidence of of cyclonic turning in the mid levels. could be a wet and blustery period ahead for the islands
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530. Skyepony (Mod)
They just took the floater off the depression (24W) about to hit the Philippines, Looks like that may go south of Manila & wander through the islands.
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Quoting Skyepony:


End of a front & that has been a popular area somewhat this year to try & spin something up. Trick is if the end of the front will north enough.


not only that but end of the fronts genesis counts for about 10-15% of Atlantic TCs, 2nd to tropical waves.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
528. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Weather456:


the problem is that the lesser reliable CMC is the model which is forecasting this. something to watch in case tho.


End of a front & that has been a popular area somewhat this year to try & spin something up. Trick is if the end of the front will be north enough.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Lot's of destructive shear. Probably why the ships keeps the AOI in check through 120hr @ 37kts. May be able to strengthen a bit once it starts running with the shear though, kinda like Wilma did.

If it's in the BAMMD position (19.2N 85.5W Heading N) at the end of the run, I would look for a strengthening Topical Storm heading NE shortly thereafter. That is assuming, which is a safe bet this time of year, that a trough will come and pick it up eventually.


which is why I think shear and proximity to land will be two moderating factors.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting TampaSpin:
Still no floater on 97L amazing....years ago it would have been on before an Invest was named....Wow has times changed from the money crunch......speaking of money crunch the Dow will fall sharply at opening bell....major sell off in Asia overnite....Back to weather.


Tim be careful, the admins are cracking down hard.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting beell:


Oh, well. Must not be worthy of consideration.
Later, folks. Have a good 'un!


Lot's of destructive shear. Probably why the ships keeps the AOI in check through 120hr @ 37kts. May be able to strengthen a bit once it starts running with the shear though, kinda like Wilma did.

If it's in the BAMMD position (19.2N 85.5W Heading N) at the end of the run, I would look for a strengthening Topical Storm heading NE shortly thereafter. That is assuming, which is a safe bet this time of year, that a trough will come and pick it up eventually.
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What is going on over Columbia? Did the ITCZ fork?
The diagonal storms across Brazil, Lack of defined westerly flow from North Africa. Is this a typical anything?
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Wow. I look this morning at there is an ORANGE circle....

Still something to watch and blog about.
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521. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


NHC does not control the floaters or the names assigned to them, that is SSD. If you go by the ATCF Database that is NHC, not to say they don't screw that up either though.


I think my difficulty has been NOAA in general (which covers both).
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Any thoughts on the spin at ~63W 26N?


a surface low along the trough that drapes south of 96L.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Skyepony:
What Masters said the other day about NHC being hard to predict is so spot on. I've had a harder time predicting their next move based off their rule & conditions than calling what the storms would do this season. With the naming of 97L (which I said would never happen since 97L was on the floater a few weeks ago), i'm wrong again.. Should have realized it was an error since 96L had been skipped, just thought it was the new norm since they skipped one earlier this season.

Outside chance we'll see an invest around the North of PR/Hispanolia, east of southern Bahamas in 4-5 days.


the problem is that the lesser reliable CMC is the model which is forecasting this. something to watch in case tho.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Any thoughts on the spin at ~63W 26N?
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Quoting crownwx:
Thanks for posting my discussion portcharlotte.




You are Welcome
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I see we have an Invest 97L...Looks to be going inland...
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Quoting Skyepony:
What Masters said the other day about NHC being hard to predict is so spot on. I've had a harder time predicting their next move based off their rule & conditions than calling what the storms would do this season. With the naming of 97L (which I said would never happen since 97L was on the floater a few weeks ago), i'm wrong again.. Should have realized it was an error since 96L had been skipped, just thought it was the new norm since they skipped one earlier this season.

Outside chance we'll see an invest around the North of PR/Hispanolia, east of southern Bahamas in 4-5 days.


NHC does not control the floaters or the names assigned to them, that is SSD. If you go by the ATCF Database that is NHC, not to say they don't screw that up either though.
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512. IKE
Pretty good consensus....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
511. beell
Quoting beell:
Anybody looked at the 200mb GFS over the next 120 hours and beyond? N of 15N?


Oh, well. Must not be worthy of consideration.
Later, folks. Have a good 'un!
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16613
510. Skyepony (Mod)
What Masters said the other day about NHC being hard to predict is so spot on. I've had a harder time predicting their next move based off their rule & conditions than calling what the storms would do this season. With the naming of 97L (which I said would never happen since 97L was on the floater a few weeks ago), i'm wrong again.. Should have realized it was an error since 96L had been skipped, just thought it was the new norm since they skipped one earlier this season.

Outside chance we'll see an invest around the North of PR/Hispanolia, east of southern Bahamas in 4-5 days.
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543

WHXX01 KWBC 031219

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1219 UTC TUE NOV 3 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20091103 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

091103 1200 091104 0000 091104 1200 091105 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 82.3W 10.9N 83.2W 11.4N 84.2W

BAMD 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 81.5W 11.3N 81.9W 12.0N 82.6W

BAMM 10.0N 81.5W 10.5N 81.8W 11.0N 82.4W 11.7N 83.3W

LBAR 10.0N 81.5W 10.7N 82.0W 11.8N 82.9W 13.2N 83.8W

SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

091105 1200 091106 1200 091107 1200 091108 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.7N 85.1W 12.5N 86.6W 13.4N 87.9W 14.1N 89.4W

BAMD 13.0N 83.4W 14.9N 84.8W 17.3N 85.4W 19.2N 85.5W

BAMM 12.4N 84.2W 13.5N 86.1W 14.8N 87.5W 15.4N 89.1W

LBAR 14.8N 84.6W 16.9N 85.4W 17.9N 83.8W 17.8N 81.8W

SHIP 33KTS 38KTS 38KTS 37KTS

DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 81.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT

LATM12 = 9.9N LONM12 = 80.9W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 80.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53820
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



That couldn't be any further from what "Normally" happens this time of year. Do you put any stock into a ridge of that magnitude? Even a blend of the October / November climatology, since we really haven't crossed the summer threshold yet, wouldn't yield a track of that nature, not even close.


More fuel for the "Old Grey Mare Just Ain't What She Used To Be" phrase?


somewhat due to the fact that mid-latitude dynamics are easier forecasted and that is the model consensus.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
In the 6Z GFS the system has trouble moving north due to tremendous ridging. Shows 97L going over Belize and emerging over the BOC.



That couldn't be any further from what "Normally" happens this time of year. Do you put any stock into a ridge of that magnitude? Even a blend of the October / November climatology, since we really haven't crossed the summer threshold yet, wouldn't yield a track of that nature, not even close.


More fuel for the "Old Grey Mare Just Ain't What She Used To Be" phrase?
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506. beell
Anybody looked at the 200mb GFS over the next 120 hours and beyond? N of 15N?
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16613
back too sleep i go



000
ABNT20 KNHC 031150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Blog Update

Watching the SW Caribbean; Invest 96L revived
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
In the 6Z GFS the system has trouble moving north due to tremendous ridging. Shows 97L going over Belize and emerging over the BOC.


Sure thing... that should reinforce the already cooler WX in the SE CONUS. Currently 8:33AM ET and still looking @ 64.3F under considerable cloudiness @ my local in CFL.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Morning All.

That's one heck of a ridge forecast by the GFS at the end of the run. Are we sure this is November? And El Nino to boot?


LOL... I've been asking myself that with all these madness happening with the WX this year. Got to love when WX is this unpredictable... even forecast models are burning out. :)
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
In the 6Z GFS the system has trouble moving north due to tremendous ridging. Shows 97L going over Belize and emerging over the BOC.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not real confident in the 06Z BAMS, interested in the 12Z which will have upper air data and should have vortex relocation. SHIPS RI Index is medium so more towards BAMD may be correct. I do agree in a more north than west movement.


yea I see what you are saying
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Morning All.

That's one heck of a ridge forecast by the GFS at the end of the run. Are we sure this is November? And El Nino to boot?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not real confident in the 06Z BAMS, interested in the 12Z which will have upper air data and should have vortex relocation. SHIPS RI Index is medium so more towards BAMD may be correct. I do agree in a more north than west movement.


That track would agree with the 06Z GFS run.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4972
Quoting Weather456:


Nice

Exactly what I was thinking

west of north.


Not real confident in the 06Z BAMS, interested in the 12Z which will have upper air data and should have vortex relocation. SHIPS RI Index is medium so more towards BAMD may be correct. I do agree in a more north than west movement.
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Nice job Oz, but its better than nothing. Where is Pats post of the miner. If that's still legal.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.