Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

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A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

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95. IKE
12Z CMC


12Z GFS
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
94. IKE
Old Yeller....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST MON NOV 2 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL
GALE CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND THEN TURN
NORTHEASTWARD WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
New Portlight news...which, while perhaps redundant, is, nevertheless, very interesting...and really cool...
Link
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Low north of Panama looks to be stationary and the Nam takes it slowly North.
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The fight for domination may occur in the Pacific again. You can see it on the 850mb vorticity!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting TampaSpin:


The Steering is very weak..


Yes. All depends on where/if it forms a coc.

ASCAT pass just downloaded a partial hit of the area, 79W and east.

25km

50km
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The Steering is very weak..
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Storm: Good morning. So do you thing the season has anything left in it to produce a storm? I have been reading what everyone been writing and I was just wondering what's on your mind?
Have a great day. Looking 4 ur response.

Sheri
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74. Good morning, P451.
I think some of these circulations are mid-level and more associated with the upper trough. The surface low has decoupled and continues on its merry way to the N.

A once upon a time very well stacked system-no more.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 145 Comments: 16923
Quoting TampaSpin:
The low near Panama has little chance of developing as it moves inland. Steering takes the developing low inland.....Don't think it will have enough time to become even a Tropical Depression before moving Inland. NHC will have a yellow up on it soon and probably an Invest coming although moving inland will be what happens.



That area has sure caught attention now. Lets see what really happens.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Low down in the SW carribean probably wont go inland (unless it does in Nicaragua 3 days from now)...the pattern is stuck down there.. maybe a drift north over the next couple of days....actually the NAM does have it correct...but the strength it has is overdone like usual.. inhibiting factor is the dual low formation with this and the 1 west of ElSalavador. 1 must let the other develop or pull further away. GFS isnt sure what it wants todo and the models are all over the place. 1 of the lows could develop to be dominate over the next day or 2.. or it may take awhile (if at all). But the pattern does suggest NW carribean and Yucitan by this weekend.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!


Good afternoon
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
The low near Panama has little chance of developing as it moves inland. Steering takes the developing low inland.....Don't think it will have enough time to become even a Tropical Depression before moving Inland. NHC will have a yellow up on it soon and probably an Invest coming although moving inland will be what happens.

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Panama low looking pretty good.

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Good morning all

That area just N of Panama looks to be spinning up quite quickly. Certainly there is good rotation at the 850 mb level and surface obs suggest a surface low as well. Shear is about 15 to 20 knots in the area but does not seem to be impacting the cloud field so far.

Late season Southern Caribbean systems have been known for either very slow development or, as we saw with Mitch, rapid development over the course of a couple of days.

Let's hope this drifts W onto land before it can organise.

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The little perfect storm #2

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Back from my own green lizard award, looks like Doc nailed his Panama call from last week. Saying that I am sure it will fizzle.
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Has anybody seen what is going on in the SW Carribbean. Looks like a well defines low pressure area has developed. Nam is forescasting development in the next 24hrs.
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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Nov 2, 10:54 am EST

Partly Cloudy

54 °F
(12 °C)
Humidity: 49 %
Wind Speed: SW 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.12" (1020.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 35 °F (2 °C)
Wind Chill: 52 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
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28days 12hrs 20 mins remain
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Yeah, I'm back, but not sure how much :P, and that article is pretty interesting
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Quoting tornadodude:
good morning all

And yea! He's back, too!

Wonder whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, or depends on point of view?

Kankakee River, water table among proposed plant concerns
Comments

October 25, 2009
BY DIANE KRIEGER SPIVAK, (219) 648-3076

Local officials are waiting to find out what effect an unprecedented $285 million garbage-to-ethanol plant in south Lake County would have on the land's water table and the Kankakee River, which meanders less than a mile away.

"We don't know anything yet," said Jody Melton, head of the Kankakee River Basin Commission, which oversees wetlands conservation and management along the river. "I've got a lot of questions."

Powers Energy of America hopes to break ground next spring on the first-of-its-kind plant that would turn 10,000 tons of Northwest Indiana and Chicago garbage into ethanol.

The Evansville-based company plans to use a patented system touted as pollution-free.

After closing a deal this month to purchase land to locate the plant, Powers is now concentrating on engineering the facility, which an Argonne National Laboratory researcher has determined would use about a million gallons of water a day.

Powers officials have said the company must still apply for about a dozen local and state permits, including permits from the Indiana Department of Environmental Management.

IDEM officials have said they will look at any possible environmental impact after Powers applies for permits.

The plant would be located in what is left of the Grand Kankakee Marsh, a low-lying flood plain area along the river. But Powers would neither sink wells nor pipe water from the river in order to produce ethanol, said Jeff Langbehn, chief of the Lake County Solid Waste Management District, which has a contract with Powers to process all of Lake County's garbage.

Powers' plans are to raise the land using soil dug to create a lake. The lake will hold the water that will be used to produce the ethanol, Langbehn said.

"They'll pull water in as they need it and any water not used to make ethanol will be put in the wastewater treatment plant," Langbehn said.

Powers Vice President Kenneth Bosar said the water used in the process would be treated on site and brought to drinking water standards before being released.

"Drinking water has a higher standard than Kankakee River river water, which has so much nitrogen and fertilizer in it," Melton said.

Philippa Cannon, spokeswoman for the United States Environmental Protection Agency, said the plant would be required to monitor the water and submit reports to the EPA.

Melton said he did not expect the plant to lower the water table because it is so high.

But he was concerned how the water the plant discharges into the manmade lake would be contained.

"They're going to have to figure out a way to keep (ground)water out if they're digging a hole," Melton said. "It's just going to fill with water. That's why it floods in that area. The high water table there is going to cause the problems.

"That's been my question all along about this business," Melton said. "I don't know enough about it."

Marty Benson, spokesman for the Indiana Department of Natural Resources, said no other ethanol plants are located along the Kankakee in Indiana.

A Northern Indiana Public Service Company power plant near Wheatfield uses ditch water and has a permit to take water from the Kankakee if it needs to unless the water table is too low, Melton said. That plant has two gauges on the river that are monitored by the United States Geological Survey.

In addition to not using river water in the garbage-to-ethanol process, Langbehn said the process itself produces water.

"The waste coming in has more water than necessary," he said. As it goes into a gasifier it's broken down into surplus water.

Powers is currently in discussions with water and hydrology specialists.

"They are doing engineering specific to that piece of land," Langbehn said.

Langbehn said he does not expect Powers to submit a permit application to IDEM until January, and no public hearings on the project until spring.

Lake County Survey George Van Til, who must also sign off on parts of the project said he felt the timetable was "extremely premature.

"I've had no conversations with them, no applications from them, nothing. We want to make sure things are done right.

"There are a myriad of concerns that have to be addressed like irrigation of farms, water usage and water quality," Van Til said.

"It's frustrating to speculate about it."

Indiana Grand Kankakee Marsh history

The marsh was one of the largest freshwater wetland complexes in the United States, encompassing 500,000 acres in eight counties.

Wetlands and prairie habitats were intertwined with the Kankakee River as it meandered its way from South Bend to Illinois.

The Grand Marsh supported a local economy that was built around waterfowling and fur trade.

Change in the Marsh came with development. As human populations grew, so did the need for land. The fertile soils of the river bottom provided some of the finest ground for growing crops. A mammoth effort to drain the area by channelizing the river transformed the Grand Marsh into an impressive producer of grain.

The Grand Marsh lost its personality as it was divided and drained over the years.source: www.igkmrp.org

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Quoting 2010hurricane:
The El Nino is really strenghtening. Nino 4(+1.6),Nino 3.5(+1.5)
should reach peak by mid dec then wane off after that
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
good morning all
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like a low pressure area is developing just north of panama ???????


It is one
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The El Nino is really strenghtening. Nino 4(+1.6),Nino 3.5(+1.5)
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Hey,Tamp,every week some model is trying to spin up a big nor'easter.
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Quoting NRAamy:
I agree with Taz...he knows his stuff....

NRAAMY!...she's ba-ack! Yea!

Weather for Silver Spring, MD
54°F | °C
Current: Mostly Cloudy
Wind: N at 7 mph
Humidity: 57%

A few showers are also possible along the Mid-Atlantic Coast as an area of low pressure begins to track away from the Outer Banks and out to sea.

Gusty winds are also possible along the coast today, along with some shallow coastal flooding.
-------------------------------------
Ranking of 9 for World Series tonight
Clear skies

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JAVI, defined as: GFS positions from WXMAP

I hope it is wrong...wants to send Mirinae back to the Philippines and stall it right off the coast. That would be very not cool...

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Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
This looks to be less favorable for development when it is updated later today or tomorrow...



Blue is not favorable, red is very favorable
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yay Drama lol

Really though Taz RIPs everything under the sun, withint minutes of the slightest unfavorable conditions; go back and look at his posts this season. The only time you really see him post much anymore is to say something is RIP and to move on to the next system

That being said, 96L is all but gone, it had its chance and considering the window is quickly closing, I doubt the NHC gives it a name in time.

Area in SW Caribbean looks very interesting to me, better defined rotation down there than we have seen in quite some time. Dr M gives a chance for something to form in the BOC or Western Caribbean in November; which to me gives it credence to follow and track what is going on down there regardless of opinions.
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Quoting jurakantaino:
Yes, and you should also be sorry for Dr. Masters since he doesn't see it that way either.


You should never be sorry for an opinion :) If people did not have them... this would be a pretty boring blog. I look at everyones... especially if based on factual data... and then agree or disagree with them (privately).

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
in a EL Nino year hurricane season can end a moth or two sooner not evere year hurricane season will end on the 30th

Taz with all due respect....

not every hurricane season will end 30 November?

I think you meant to say in El Nino years, activity does not normally extend to the end of the hurricane season.

Every single hurricane season ends 30 November even 2005 but activity can fall short of 30 November or after 30 November.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I agree with Taz...he knows his stuff....
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Quoting Tazmanian:



so what that hurricane season ends on the 30th


in a EL Nino year hurricane season can end a moth or two sooner not evere year hurricane season will end on the 30th




now if this was not a EL Nino year then i would say bring on one more storm but this is a EL Nino year its not like last year or the year be for or the year be for


you no what am sorry that some of you dont see it the way i do
Yes, and you should also be sorry for Dr. Masters since he doesn't see it that way either.
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Quoting reedzone:


Taz it's official that Hurricane Season ends on November 30, not October 30.. We still more time, and it's possible that Ida may pop out in the Carribean late this week into next week.


That may be the "official" end but who knows what happens beyond the season.

No offense, Reed, but I can recall this system and the Caribbean system a couple of weeks ago you still kept hanging on to. It's one thing to hold on to a forecast until the data proves you wrong. It's another thing to hold on to a forecast when there's no supportive data. What gives?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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