Invest 96L fizzles; Mirinae slams Vietnam; Western Caribbean heating up?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on November 02, 2009

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A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, has lost its opportunity to become Subtropical Storm Ida. This storm (Invest 96L) did develop a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity last night, and appeared on its way towards being named. However, high wind shear of 40 knots has now attacked 96L, driving large amounts of dry air into its core. The storm has now lost all of its heavy thunderstorms, and I give a low (less than 30% chance) that 96L will develop into Subtropical Storm Ida.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 96L, east of Bermuda.

Time to keep an eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico
Moisture is on the increase over the Western Caribbean, and the GFS model is suggesting a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche west of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, 6 - 8 days from now. The other reliable models for forecasting formation of tropical storms--the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and UKMET--do not support this. However, the less reliable Canadian model also suggests a Western Caribbean development 6 - 8 days from now. Despite the presence of moderate El Niño conditions, wind shear over the Western Caribbean is expected to fall into the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, late this week and most of next week. Hurricane season is not over, and we should keep a watchful eye on the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico over the next few weeks.

Typhoon Mirinae slams into Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae tricked forecasters this morning by unexpectedly intensifying into a Category 1 typhoon just before landfall in central Vietnam. Mirinae made landfall as a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds at 02 UTC this morning, but weakened quickly as it moved inland. Mirinae is expected to dump 8 - 12 inches of rain along a narrow strip through central Vietnam, causing major flooding and crop losses. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and did $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed twenty in the Philippines, with four people still missing. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.


Figure 2. Filipinos struggle to salvage the remains of a destroyed home during the landfall of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: James Reynolds, typhoonfury.com. Reynolds and fellow storm chaser Jim Edds of extremestorms.com, recorded video of the impressive waves of Mirinae slamming the coast of the Philippines, and of some Filipinos struggling to salvage smashed housing materials in rough waters.

Jeff Masters

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145. xcool
ECMWF make 4 time hit gom
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Support from the UKMET model is nice to have.
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Nice model support in the short term to suspect an area worth watching.
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Dual tropical cyclogenesis would certainly be an ironic end for a season like this.
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UKMET Office


GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.11.2009

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 10.5N 81.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.11.2009 10.5N 81.5W WEAK
00UTC 04.11.2009 11.5N 81.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.11.2009 11.1N 82.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.11.2009 12.3N 81.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2009 12.4N 82.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.11.2009 12.4N 82.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.11.2009 13.1N 81.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.11.2009 13.5N 81.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.11.2009 13.3N 82.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2009 13.5N 81.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.11.2009 13.5N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11209
Something to track per the 12Z EURO

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting weatherbro:
The BOC disturbance is extra-tropical and associated with a frontal boundary draped across the GOM and south-central Florida.

At one point(haven't checked if it still does), the GFS wanted to form a classic southern stream storm system and bring it through central Florida right on up/offshore the eastern seaboard. But all the other models aren't buying it. They eventually re-stall the boundary towards Cuba. Giving The Sunshine State fabulous weather Wednesday through the weekend!

Let's see if this thing develops(as the GFS/Canadian says it will) somewhere between Sunday though next Tuesday(Nov 8th-10th).


It's mostly tropical...
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Satellite cannot use a splitter. I have tried this. You must get a multi switch. The switches can get pricey.
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137. IKE
12Z ECMWF
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Quoting ElConando:


bold* what is there an issue with what Tampa is forecasting?


no..lets see what happens
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
The CMC, GFS, and ECMWF suggest a tropical cyclone may form from the system in the southern Caribbean as it moves slowly over the next couple of days. Lots of vorticity in the area to get things going.
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The BOC disturbance is extra-tropical and associated with a frontal boundary draped across the GOM and south-central Florida.

At one point(haven't checked if it still does), the GFS wanted to form a classic southern stream storm system and bring it through central Florida right on up/offshore the eastern seaboard. But all the other models aren't buying it. They eventually re-stall the boundary towards Cuba. Giving The Sunshine State fabulous weather Wednesday through the weekend!

Let's see if this thing develops(as the GFS/Canadian says it will) somewhere between Sunday though next Tuesday(Nov 8th-10th).
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133. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "TINO" has maintained its strength as it moves towards Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
===============================
At 11:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Tino located at 17.3ºN 123.9ºE or 200 kms east of Tuguegarao City has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 km/h (30 kts).

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warnings #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Batanes group
2.Cagayan
3.Babuyan
4.Calayan islands
5.Apayao
6.Kalinga
7.Mt. Province
8.Ifugao
9.Isabela
10.Quirino
11.Northern Aurora

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

However, the rest of Northern Luzon will have occasional rains and gusty winds due to the surge of the Northeast monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
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Nice, the detached cold front tail has been converted into an outflow channel.
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You guys should stop chasing ghosts and watch the real action. Philippines may get hit by their fifth cyclone since September.

Link
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hey Doug! Getting any rain up that way?


Dry as a bone!
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


i found this on spaceweather.com and thought i'd post


that is a great picture
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i found this on spaceweather.com and thought i'd post
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Quoting albert0826:
when is it going to get cold in Florida?


i'm guessing you live in South Florida. December is usually when the lows dip into the lower 60s more commonly. It will come eventually.
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97. StormW, I know I've bothered you with this request before, but, one last time, where is that Pacific SST graphic you always post located?

Thanks and sorry for the inconvenience!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
The low near Panama has little chance of developing as it moves inland. Steering takes the developing low inland.....Don't think it will have enough time to become even a Tropical Depression before moving Inland. NHC will have a yellow up on it soon and probably an Invest coming although moving inland will be what happens.



steering is weak and most forecast models do not show it moving westward and inland, so I would have to respectfully disagree with you at this time.
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121. xcool




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the tongue of cooler water west of South America is growing....
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
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Thanks P451 for a meaningful reply to my question. I'm not holding out much hope. We are under a dry curse right now. It's pretty ridiculous actually.

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Quoting P451:


LOL you're on fire.



Hmmm...I live in Jersey haven't seen anything like that. Also thought we were out of our satellite blackouts?

Weather456 did a great piece on the satellite blackouts a number of weeks ago. I think we're beyond that.




Yeah, I think you're right.
I didn't check other stations out, didn't care much.
Prob. just TWC or maybe my cable provider (RCN). We just always blamed "VR" (Vacation Relief) and moved on...(j/k).
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when is it going to get cold in Florida?
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Any of the model runs showing any moisture heading toward Southwest Florida?


If one sun shower shows up in the model runs hitting S Fla we shall warn you.

Kidding aside i haven't looked at the models recently but I believe none are showing too much moisture, meaning nothing with flood potential.
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Panama low looking pretty good.



Hey Doug! Getting any rain up that way?
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Its sure getting winterly "for me at least" in Tallahassee, lows dropping from upper to lower 40s by the end of the work week.
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Any of the model runs showing any moisture heading toward Southwest Florida?
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Say, is SQUAWK around? Pretty sure he'd know -- He's retired Navy; still lives near PAX.

TWC said something about the full moon (seriously, I'm not joking...but I didn't listen as I thought it would have to do with tides and already-posted minimal coastal flooding. My TV is cutting in and out...in black, not even a "Standby" slate...but that's almost getting to be normal. I am NOT in love with digital (me being "older" broadcast producer).


In Miami when the temperatures get sub 50 degrees, there are issues with HD channels, many are unwatchable.
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109. xcool
Gulf... interesting
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Quoting P451:
Whoa, is something wrong in Maryland? Never seen such a cluster of radar stations down before.


Say, is SQUAWK around? Pretty sure he'd know -- He's retired Navy; still lives near PAX.

TWC said something about the full moon (seriously, I'm not joking...) but I didn't listen as I thought it would have to do with tides and already-posted minimal coastal flooding. My TV is cutting in and out...in black, not even a "Standby" slate...but that's almost getting to be normal. I am NOT in love with digital (me being "older" broadcast producer).
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Quoting P451:


Thanks! I hope you continue your analysis through the winter. It just feels like we're due for an interesting winter in the mid-atlantic through north-east and I always look forward to your synopsis on potential systems.




LOL!!!!

But seriously...what's up with that?


the other half of the radar operators are Redskins fans...
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104. xcool



hi all

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Quoting Weather456:


That area has sure caught attention now. Lets see what really happens.


bold* what is there an issue with what Tampa is forecasting?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
should reach peak by mid dec then wane off after that


I wouldn't bet on it yet. Not just yet.
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wow....sounds like I picked a good weekend to be out of pocket! :)
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Quoting IKE:
12Z CMC


12Z GFS


Noticed earlier that 12Z CMC/GFS are attempting to agree on the same general solution.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4976
95. IKE
12Z CMC


12Z GFS
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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