Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:15 PM GMT on October 31, 2009

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Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.

Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.


Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.

Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.

Jeff Masters

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459. wunderkidcayman 3:17 PM AST on November 01, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats a perpetual area of low pressure in that area in other words its always there


are you sure


It's a semi-permanent low pressure in other words it high pressure is to the Azores High as Low Pressure is to the Colombian Low.

Basically what keeper said but in another way.
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INV/96/L
MARK
32.8N/55.6W
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Quoting BrowardJeff:

I love it when a Canadian makes fun of someone else for having cold weather. :)

Meanwhile, it's still shockingly hot down here.


In Victoria.. we don't do... cold weather and snow.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats a perpetual area of low pressure in that area in other words its always there

are you sure


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Quoting Weather456:
That depends how you look at it. ACE speaking, nothing could save the season from being below average.

Don't say that >.< that's bad luck ...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats a perpetual area of low pressure in that area in other words its always there

are you sure about that



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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
but the ace is what counts


yea that is why said, it depends on how one looks at it. ACE speaking - the season is below average.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys that might not be the only tropical system to worry about look

thats a perpetual area of low pressure in that area in other words its always there
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Snowing yet KOG?
I am going golfing later today :)

I love it when a Canadian makes fun of someone else for having cold weather. :)

Meanwhile, it's still shockingly hot down here.
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Quoting Weather456:
That depends how you look at it. ACE speaking, nothing could save the season from being below average.
but the ace is what counts
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Snowing yet KOG?
I am going golfing later today :)
no not yet maybe first wet flakes by fri for my area have a good game watch out for that hole in one try not to trip over it
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.96LINVEST.50kts-998mb-327N-554W.100pc.jpg |
Reduced size ( 33 K), click image to get full-sized image ( 238 K).
20091101.1815.goes12.x.vis1km_high.96LINVEST.50kts-998mb-327N-554W.100pc.jpg thumbnail
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8288
449. jipmg
55mph winds estimated at the surface for our low
guys that might not be the only tropical system to worry about look

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That depends how you look at it. ACE speaking, nothing could save the season from being below average.
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What is rather interesting is the persistence of this season. I am quiet amazed that were able to reach this far. If Ida does form - 9 named storms, and the possible unnamed systems earlier this year could make this an average season instead of a below-averaged season.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
all signs indicate that 96L should become STS IDA within next 12 to 24 hrs if they name it at all


Snowing yet KOG?
I am going golfing later today :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
all signs indicate that 96L should become STS IDA within next 12 to 24 hrs if they name it at all
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You have to love the stupid questions... you learn a lot :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
442. beell
Quoting Orcasystems:


Me either.. I was just reading about lapse rate.. and they use decrease in height... so I jumped to the conclusion "down to the surface".



Just the other way around-from the bottom up.
Speaking of temp change with height.
Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate is about 10C/km
Moist Adiabatic Lapse Rate is about 5C-6C/km.

If rising air can find itself surrounded by air that is cooler-it will continue to rise. As this air condenses, the latent heat exchanged in the changeover from vapor to liquid continues the process and the core becomes "warmer" to a greater depth in the atmosphere.

So even if the storm moves into a colder environment the adiabatic process ensures that the core will be warmer.
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Quoting beell:
It is not so much that the temperature is warming. More aptly described as "it aint cooling as quickly as it should". The heat from condensation slowing the cooling-leading to a "lapse rate" favorable for continued convection. The air parcels remain warmer than the enviroment they find themselves in.
The "adiabatic" process W456 mentioned.


Excellent

The air parcel that generate the latent heat from condensation becomes warmer than the environment and continues to rise sustaining more convection.

Now if the environment lapse rate decreases fast enough (cools fast enough as one gets higher) then the air parcels will be warmer than the surrounding air and the air can continue rise, sustaining more convection. That is why I said, if the difference between the SSTs and the air aloft is steep, then that is favorable for rising air and convection.
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96l forward speed between 17 and 19 kts winds have up from 40 kts to 45 kts
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..SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N53W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ALONG 32N48W 23N50W 19N60W TO 24N74W. THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 29N55W. INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 52W-58W. THE SURFACE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
000T
ABNT20 KNHC 011732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST
OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN
NORTHWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... REFER TO
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114788
latest run

711

WHXX01 KWBC 011827

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1827 UTC SUN NOV 1 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962009) 20091101 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

091101 1800 091102 0600 091102 1800 091103 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.7N 55.4W 34.6N 57.9W 36.8N 59.0W 39.1N 58.9W

BAMD 32.7N 55.4W 33.7N 58.0W 35.2N 57.8W 37.4N 55.6W

BAMM 32.7N 55.4W 34.3N 58.1W 36.2N 58.1W 38.5N 56.0W

LBAR 32.7N 55.4W 34.3N 57.8W 35.2N 58.9W 36.4N 58.1W

SHIP 50KTS 52KTS 50KTS 48KTS

DSHP 50KTS 52KTS 50KTS 48KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

091103 1800 091104 1800 091105 1800 091106 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 42.3N 57.7W 50.2N 50.3W 56.2N 40.1W 57.5N 30.0W

BAMD 40.4N 52.6W 48.3N 42.0W 53.4N 21.8W 48.4N 4.3W

BAMM 41.6N 53.1W 50.0N 41.1W 54.3N 24.2W 54.6N 10.4W

LBAR 37.9N 55.1W 42.7N 44.2W 44.5N 29.5W .0N .0W

SHIP 43KTS 40KTS 45KTS 24KTS

DSHP 43KTS 40KTS 45KTS 24KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 32.7N LONCUR = 55.4W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 19KT

LATM12 = 30.7N LONM12 = 51.4W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 28.5N LONM24 = 45.6W

WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 45KT

CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 240NM RD34SE = 180NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 300NM



$$

NNNN
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Quoting Weather456:


I am not sure what you mean by get down to the surface.

But in simple terms, latent heat comes from convection and as long as convection sustains then a warm core can develop.

Convection can occur if the lapse rate is steep, if SSTs are above 23C or baroclinic forces.


Me either.. I was just reading about lapse rate.. and they use decrease in height... so I jumped to the conclusion "down to the surface".

Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
434. beell
It is not so much that the temperature is warming. More aptly described as "it aint cooling as quickly as it should". The heat from condensation slowing the cooling-leading to a "lapse rate" favorable for continued convection. The air parcels remain warmer than the enviroment they find themselves in.
The "adiabatic" process W456 mentioned.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


So in english.. if it can get down to the surface quick enough and maintain convection... it can become warm cored.

Assuming I used your words correctly and decoded them with Google.


I am not sure what you mean by get down to the surface.

But in simple terms, latent heat comes from convection and as long as convection sustains then a warm core can develop.

Convection can occur if the lapse rate is steep, if SSTs are above 23C or baroclinic forces.
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Quoting Weather456:


As long as it can sustain convection it can generate a warm-core - latent instability.

A storm can sustain convection if SSTs remain above 23C (that is the standard) or if the lapse rate is greater than the moist adiabatic lapse rate.


So in english.. if it can get down to the surface quick enough and maintain convection... it can become warm cored.

Assuming I used your words correctly and decoded them with Google.
Link
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
431. beell
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, my stupid question of the day....
Its cold core now... and its heading Northward sortof according to the Models. How can something move further North... yet become Warmer cored?


Latent heat of condensation/t-storm activity.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Ok, my stupid question of the day....
Its cold core now... and its heading Northward sortof according to the Models. How can something move further North... yet become Warmer cored?


As long as it can sustain convection it can generate a warm-core - latent instability.

A storm can sustain convection if SSTs remain above 23C (that is the standard) or if the lapse rate is greater than the moist adiabatic lapse rate.

Moving towards the north does not mean a feature cannot produce latent heat - which is the main cause of a warm-core.
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429. beell
A persistence (hour by hour) in organization-check!
Something Grace had trouble with until the end.
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INV/96/L
MARK
32.1N/54.2W
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Quoting beell:
May also see the lower levels of this system move out from under the sorta-eastward moving upper level trough as it de-amplifies-removing the colder UL temps.

It just might make it.

GFS SST's



As long as the upper low remains trapped off from any cold air supply, it should eventually water off (warm). Racing out from under upper low could be bitter sweet - higher shear on the periphery but faster development of a warm-core aloft.
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Quoting Weather456:
The cyclone should become warm-core tonight into the early morning hours of Monday. All signs point to a developing subtropical cyclone.



Ok, my stupid question of the day....
Its cold core now... and its heading Northward sortof according to the Models. How can something move further North... yet become Warmer cored?
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Now this is rather interesting that the strongest winds are near the center - this is a tropical characteristic

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423. beell
May also see the lower levels of this system move out from under the sorta-eastward moving upper level trough as it de-amplifies-removing the colder UL temps.

It just might make it.

GFS SST's

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The cyclone should become warm-core tonight into the early morning hours of Monday. All signs point to a developing subtropical cyclone.

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711

WHXX01 KWBC 011418

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1418 UTC SUN NOV 1 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962009) 20091101 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

091101 1200 091102 0000 091102 1200 091103 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 31.6N 53.1W 34.1N 56.0W 37.3N 57.1W 40.2N 56.9W

BAMD 31.6N 53.1W 32.9N 56.3W 35.0N 57.5W 37.4N 57.0W

BAMM 31.6N 53.1W 33.7N 56.1W 36.9N 56.8W 40.1N 55.6W

LBAR 31.6N 53.1W 33.5N 55.6W 35.1N 57.3W 36.1N 57.2W

SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS

DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 51KTS 49KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

091103 1200 091104 1200 091105 1200 091106 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 43.1N 56.1W 49.9N 49.6W 55.6N 42.2W 58.1N 35.2W

BAMD 40.1N 55.4W 47.6N 46.0W 52.4N 23.6W 43.5N 7.1W

BAMM 43.2N 53.3W 50.3N 42.1W 52.2N 24.1W 46.1N 9.4W

LBAR 37.4N 55.3W 41.1N 46.1W 43.0N 34.1W .0N .0W

SHIP 46KTS 36KTS 35KTS 23KTS

DSHP 46KTS 36KTS 35KTS 23KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 53.1W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 30.4N LONM12 = 49.6W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 16KT

LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 46.1W

WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 40KT

CENPRS = 998MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 300NM RD34SE = 200NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 300NM



$$

NNNN
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96L not the only thing looking photogenic today. have a nice sunday everyone.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11208
The system has not become fully cold core as of 5am this morning, this may change soon since the data is quite outdated. The tropopause is about 11KM in the standard atmosphere with the stratosphere above and the upper troposphere below. We are concerned with the upper troposphere which still shows cold core. The warm core above is stratospheric warming. This data however is from 5am this morning, so the warm-core may have build further down.

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Go Wildcats!!!!! Beat those o so nasty Jets....
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Today's Tropical Update

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Orange....No Surprise there

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wait wait ... who stuck a pumpkin in the middle of the Atlantic?
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Is now code orange.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST
OF BERMUDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... REFER TO
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
This season was so weak lets not call it a Hurricane season, lets call it a Tropical storm/depression season
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.