Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:15 PM GMT on October 31, 2009

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Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.

Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.


Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.

Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.

Jeff Masters

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A short overview of how the system formed

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


The winds, warm-core, SSTs, numerical models, satellite presentations, Herbert ST numbers, I am leaning towards Ida.


Good enough for a yes to me.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


OK, warm core... winds are high enough... so does it get a name... your call... yes/no?


The winds, warm-core, SSTs, numerical models, satellite presentations, Herbert ST numbers, I am leaning towards Ida.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


You are really new, I am one already, lol

Solid warm core down to the mid-levels



OK, Put you on the spot....warm core... winds are high enough... so does it get a name... your call... yes/no?
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508. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (2200z 01NOV)
===============================================
An area of convection (97W) located at 17.8N 126.3E or 360 NM east-northeast of Manila, Philippines has persisted over the past 12 hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection building over an organized low level circulation center. Moderate vertical wind shear to the north of the low level circulation center has been fueling the recent increase in poleward outflow. A 1215z ASCAT Pass showed winds along the northern portion of the low level circulation center were being enhanced by northeasterly flow out of the East China Sea and were between 20-25 knots. Sea surface temperatures are currently favorable for development but are decreasing as the low level circulation center tracks to the west-northwest and will likely drop below 28C within the next 12-24 hrs. Increasing northeasterly flow will likely help spin the system up within the next 12-24 hours as the low level circulation center moves towards northern Luzon. The interaction with the northeasterly cold surge occuring over the East China Sea will make development potential questionable in the long term. However,in the short term development is favorable. Based on increasing low level circulation center organization, favorable upper level outflow and marginally favorable sea surface temperature values, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD
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Quoting MayFL:


Good Sunday

Good job as always, you were pretty much spot on even though I had no idea that Dr. Masters mentions other bloggers in his entries.

Have you ever considered becoming a featured blogger?


You are really new, I am one already, lol

Solid warm core down to the mid-levels

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MayFL:


Good Sunday

Good job as always, you were pretty much spot on even though I had no idea that Dr. Masters mentions other bloggers in his entries.

Have you ever considered becoming a featured blogger?


He already is one
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latest still shows a nice CDO
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Rum will do that for you ;)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Rum will do that for you ;)


You have to forgive me but I don't drink. But I've heard alcohol does that to you, lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
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Quoting Weather456:
We have a warm core people



Rum will do that for you ;)
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We have a warm core people

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
498. JLPR
Quoting amd:


looks like subtropical storm Ida may be named in a few hours according to the quikscat that JLPR posted


ASCAT to be more precise :)
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497. amd
Quoting Weather456:


That is a very define and tight wind field there


looks like subtropical storm Ida may be named in a few hours according to the ASCAT that JLPR posted
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Quoting JLPR:
well I see we got 96L and its looking quite nice



That is a very define and tight wind field there
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
495. JLPR
well I see we got 96L and its looking quite nice

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494. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
The explosion in PR a week ago



thanks for that, i was looking for a picture like that =D

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INV/96L/STS/X
MARK
33.1N/56.2W
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Convection completely wrapped around now with an eye. I'd be amazed if this wasnt STS Ida at 8.

In other news, blog died when i left? Ha

Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Did I miss something? What happened to Patraps posts?
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I think 96L is already a tropical storm and will be classified as such in short order, just my personal opinion.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7702
489. beell
479. winter123
Nice observation-thanks!
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interesting to see what this new convection does looks like its wrappin up pretty good on sat
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Almost looks like an eye.. kind of like Grace.


Yeah this has the structure of a STS, but I think the convection is still shallow, and that sprobably why we will not see an upgrade at... 8pm? I'll be back then, got to study, and I'll probably be lurking here too...
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Almost looks like an eye.. kind of like Grace.
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thanks skyepony and winter123! i just hope winter's right because another storm would probably be a real disaster for them. that's the bad side of an el niño season: an active pacific season. i'm happy though that most of you guys did not really get anything to worry about this year :)
Quoting Skyepony:
The models are jogging 97W south before landfall & I'd say rightly so looking at the water vapor loop. Pass through Near Manila, maybe a little north of there. Surge from the mm5 models is 1-2 m for about 1/3rd of the country centered a little north of central. Flooding rains look like a possible concern with this storm...
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Quoting winter123:
Back when Joe Bastardi's videos were free in 2003-4, I watched them daily and he used to talk about this idea (forget the name) that the WPAC and Atlantic had roughly the same weather pattern at any given point in time because they are on opposite sides of the globe, things move in patterns, etc. As a means of procrastinating studying, i did this to show that you can really see that today...


Link


Link
This is an old hypothesis in the wx community, called teleconnection, IIRC. Guys were hyping it up 80-90 years ago. To me, it's just more proof that world wx systems are interconnected, interdependent, and that changes in one part of the world (e. g. manmade) can impact the wx of far-distant parts.
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The dragon rears his head.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8279


INV/96L/STS/I/?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back when Joe Bastardi's videos were free in 2003-4, I watched them daily and he used to talk about this idea (forget the name) that the WPAC and Atlantic had roughly the same weather pattern at any given point in time because they are on opposite sides of the globe, things move in patterns, etc. As a means of procrastinating studying, i did this to show that you can really see that today...

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Link

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Link
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Quoting winter123:


I think i see a eye!
(serious for the first time this year)

Me No Likey.
Except as a Fun Research Project for everyone.
When is the next NHC update? They still have the 2 & 8 EDT hours posted.
Thank you. (I'll be lurking not posting since there's actually something(s) there to track. Have a good day/week all.)
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Interesting, self updating loops, so I'm reposting. You can see the gravity waves (i think they are called, you can see them moving out from the storm through the clouds) coming out from it on the visible. And, an eye like feature trying to develop as convection wraps around.


Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Quoting Weather456:


They have noticeable changes in forecasting this year. Very noticeable and different from previous years.
Afternoon all.

Any correlation between that and some obvious changes/additions to staffing, u think?
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Quoting IKE:
96L....



I think i see a eye!
(serious for the first time this year)
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777


INV/96/L
MARK
32.8N/55.9W
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475. Skyepony (Mod)
The models are jogging 97W south before landfall & I'd say rightly so looking at the water vapor loop. Pass through Near Manila, maybe a little north of there. Surge from the mm5 models is 1-2 m for about 1/3rd of the country centered a little north of central. Flooding rains look like a possible concern with this storm...
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37447
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys that might not be the only tropical system to worry about look

`
You are the only one interested in other features closer to home. The system in the Atlantic is interesting but only the following will be affected...

1. Seaweed
2. Porpoises
3 Debris on the ocean's surface
4. An occasional ship
5. Flying fish

Like I said it's interesting and I enjoy all the hype . I guess it's better than talking politics on the blog
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Quoting P451:
Does anyone have a link to the MIDLEVEL WATER VAPOR imagery? For so far today this system is greatly lacking in moisture in the upper levels - and I know that late season systems simply aren't as "tall" so maybe these WV imagery loops just aren't sampling the system's ceiling as well.

Meanwhile, it is moisture deprived, and it does have a very short time frame to make the leap. I'd give it 50/50.



Mid-Level water vapor - not the same as upper level vapor



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
472. IKE
96L....

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Quoting weatherdutchman:
hey guys
can someone tell me if that feature that's going to hit the philipines will be a serious threat again? it shows a good circulation and some heavy convection as well??
those poor philipines have had way too much already


not even a TD, and in this wide image it looks like most of the convection is to the north. This may even be blown to nothing before landfall. I think this is the last hurrah for the WPAC season.

Link
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
This caught my eye as well... At the very bottom of the screen, there is a swirl, over land however.
Link

really nice anticyclone over the convection, displaced to the north however.
Link

However, however, however, I've said that so much this season XD

The gale center looks like a subtropical storm HOWEVER its non tropical XD
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
hey guys
can someone tell me if that feature that's going to hit the philipines will be a serious threat again? it shows a good circulation and some heavy convection as well??
those poor philipines have had way too much already
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looks amazing on visible, convection is wrapping around the east side, looks like all systems go to this blobcaster...

Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
Quoting winter123:


is it really completely cold core/non tropical? It looks like a Subtropical storm to me, seems like NHC has to wait until it is a perfect circle with an eye before they name these subtropical things... and when they have an eye, they are never hurricanes (this thing did 12 hours ago)... boggles my mind.


I will definitely know when AMSU does its descending pass. The last pass from 5am showed a cold core system but I suspect it has change since them.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
459. wunderkidcayman 3:17 PM AST on November 01, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats a perpetual area of low pressure in that area in other words its always there


are you sure


It's a semi-permanent low pressure in other words it high pressure is to the Azores High as Low Pressure is to the Colombian Low.

Basically what keeper said but in another way.

yea so the low that we has last week was the Colombian low I think not I think this low is not the Colombian low
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Quoting Weather456:
Now this is rather interesting that the strongest winds are near the center - this is a tropical characteristic



is it really completely cold core/non tropical? It looks like a Subtropical storm to me, seems like NHC has to wait until it is a perfect circle with an eye before they name these subtropical things... and when they have an eye, they are never hurricanes (this thing did 12 hours ago)... boggles my mind.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1777
463. Skyepony (Mod)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37447
459. wunderkidcayman 3:17 PM AST on November 01, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats a perpetual area of low pressure in that area in other words its always there


are you sure


It's a semi-permanent low pressure in other words it high pressure is to the Azores High as Low Pressure is to the Colombian Low.

Basically what keeper said but in another way.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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