Philippines brace for Typhoon Mirinae; big snowstorm wallops Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

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Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8+ inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Major snowstorm wallops Colorado
The season's first major snowstorm is walloping Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska and South Dakota today. In the mountain regions just west of Denver, up to 38 inches of snow has fallen, with another 4 - 12 inches possible today. It was the biggest October snowstorm in the Denver region since 1997.

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Tonight
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live tonight (Thursday) at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Jeff Masters

Top Down 4-wheelin (Roaddog1)
We've had about 24" of snow out of this storm so far in Deer Creek Canyon sw of Littleton.
Top Down 4-wheelin
Bye, bye birdies (focusonthis)
They will be heading South for sure after this snowfall.
Bye, bye birdies

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Quoting pearlandaggie:
130. gig 'em! :)

I would insert a whoop here, but becasue I am only a freshman, that would be bad bull. So I will leave it at this:

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
tdude...I never get tired of those cartoons....

;)
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Good Afternoon

Interesting read:

The 1502 Hurricane of the Dominican Republic: Columbus’ Hurricane

Tropical Update
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139. oh, my! LOL
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LOL @ 137. gathering up those animals is gonna take a while!
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I see the ugly storms to the west of me. Any chance of them making it to Atlanta in the near or distant future?
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130. Okay you convinced me, it's time to build an ark
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Quoting Grothar:


I obviously don't know as much about the weather as you, as anyone on here can attest, but that dip in the jet stream looks awfully odd. Usually strong storms can ride up the side of them down there, is this true?

Correct, and that is exactly what this one is expected to do as well.

12Z NAM Surface/500 mb
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
130. gig 'em! :) very cool!
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Quoting NRAamy:
But Grothar, I will always whack those who show real prejudice or mean-spiritedness!

your last name isn't Soprano, is it?

lol, no, but maybe in a previous life. Like Italian, but too many carbs, go Atkins (uh oh, what am I doing?)
Hubby's Irish-American.
Irish were so tough they kicked the mob out of Boston into Rhode Island!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Grothar:
Could we perhaps see an end to cheap shots from politicians and pundits about inventing the Internet?"

Cheap shots and politics together. SAY IT ISN'T SO.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


I don't know about farther west, but I can attest to the Gulf moisture over here. Winds out of the south and very muggy today. Feels like Christmas.
Interesting, and you are a couple hundred miles east of the front.
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Also of interest is how many rivers and streams are at moderate flood stage

I wonder why...


Off topic, but this graphic was actually created by one of my professors!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Quoting pearlandaggie:
123. no...was it on here last night?


well I had a picture of it last night, but I removed it LOL

post 510
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
did someone say jet streak?
where do you find these things, complete with Wally and the Beaver on the box top.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Partially. Just a pretty nasty setup in general.


An elongated surface low and associated front is to the NW.


Warm, moist air is flowing off of the Gulf with speeds in excess of 50 kts at 850mbs, which is leading to massive warm air advection.


Also, at 500 mbs, there is lots of divergence associated with a huge trough to the west. The trough is also expected to produce a jet streak to further enhance interesting weather over the area.


I obviously don't know as much about the weather as you, as anyone on here can attest, but that dip in the jet stream looks awfully odd. Usually strong storms can ride up the side of them down there, is this true?
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123. no...was it on here last night?
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But Grothar, I will always whack those who show real prejudice or mean-spiritedness!

your last name isn't Soprano, is it?
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..."Cuz your the Storm that I believed in"...
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting pearlandaggie:
did someone say jet streak?


haha did you see that last night?
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Quoting Grothar:


That is a nasty looking system. What is causing it to be so large. Moisture from the Gulf????


I don't know about farther west, but I can attest to the Gulf moisture over here. Winds out of the south and very muggy today. Feels like Christmas.
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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 781
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 780...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
ALONG SLOW EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND STRONG TO INTENSE LOW THROUGH MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STORMS/CELLS. WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...INITIAL/DISCRETE STORMS WILL EXISTS WITHIN VERY SUPPORTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21045.


...CARBIN
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AwakeinMaryland, you're supposed to watch over us!!!

I decided I needed to loosen up after Flood and I had tete-a-tete (can't do those accents) about PC and overly PC.

I defended our friend of the fishy shower curtain until his 5th or 6th handle. And I'm not positive, but I think its possible he's the one who attacked me most virulently about being a blog Nazi -- taking Thomas Paine out of context (poly-sci major, hmmm.) And Flood corrected context -- whatta' guy!

But Grothar, I will always whack those who show real prejudice or mean-spiritedness! And sure appreciate you and others who do the same. Great bloggers!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting pearlandaggie:
Severe thunderstorm warning just issued for SE Dallas county and Ellis county. Damaging winds with hail increasing in size.

--it's times like this that I'm glad I don't live in Dallas anymore! LOL
Also of interest is how many rivers and streams are at moderate flood stage
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penny-sized hail with 50mph winds. very heavy rain. storms will increase in intensity as they move away from Dallas county.
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Quoting Grothar:


That is a nasty looking system. What is causing it to be so large. Moisture from the Gulf????

Partially. Just a pretty nasty setup in general.


An elongated surface low and associated front is to the NW.


Warm, moist air is flowing off of the Gulf with speeds in excess of 50 kts at 850mbs, which is leading to massive warm air advection.


Also, at 500 mbs, there is lots of divergence associated with a huge trough to the west. The trough is also expected to produce a jet streak to further enhance interesting weather over the area.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Deputy Shaq? O'Neal applies in Ohio
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Not gonna happen, nobody has even said a word that contains an F and nobody has said anything about a cee, eah, tee

hahahaha!

yeah, and let's keep it that way....I don't even want to see a Magic Bag of Tricks on here....

;)
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Severe thunderstorm warning just issued for SE Dallas county and Ellis county. Damaging winds with hail increasing in size.

--it's times like this that I'm glad I don't live in Dallas anymore! LOL
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.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Something is going to end up happening today.

yeah, and it's probably me getting banned.....

Not gonna happen, nobody has even said a word that contains an F and nobody has said anything about a cee, eah, tee
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
This is insane!




Something is going to end up happening today.


That is a nasty looking system. What is causing it to be so large. Moisture from the Gulf????
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Yeah, I keep bouncing over to the nexrad. Some hail has been around OK and N TX and a tornado in McCalister OK already today.

Nothing but streamer showers in my area at the moment, but that should change within 12 hours or so...

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
100.
100% A+

Glad coffee did not go through nose or on canines.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting pearlandaggie:
100. yup, i'd say that one's a banner! LOL


LOL I posted it last night too tho
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100. yup, i'd say that one's a banner! LOL
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Quoting Grothar:
You never listen TD. I said (B). Hope to hear from you on the blog in about..... a month!!!! AwakeinMaryland, you're supposed to watch over us!!!


LOL could not resist, although it made more sense last night
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
This is insane!




Something is going to end up happening today.
Yeah, I keep bouncing over to the nexrad. Some hail has been around OK and N TX and a tornado in McCalister OK already today.
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You never listen TD. I said (B). Hope to hear from you on the blog in about..... a month!!!! AwakeinMaryland, you're supposed to watch over us!!!
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX/WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291548Z - 291745Z

STORMS ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH WW POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A
SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...BOTH INVOF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
AS WELL AS WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING AS
FAR E AS WRN LA. WHILE HEATING REMAINS LIMITED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...EVEN MODEST HEATING OF THE VERY MOIST /LOW TO MID 70S
DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
OF THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THIS -- COMBINED WITH WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED/STEADY INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...SURFACE SELYS ACROSS TX
INCREASING/VEERING RAPIDLY TO SLY AT 50-PLUS KT AT 1/2 TO 1 KM IS
YIELDING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
EXPECT SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL TO INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY INCREASE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.

..GOSS.. 10/29/2009

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
,
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah I did, who knew I could come up with 1,000 words about various construction projects at Purdue :)

A. Post (but I'm new Member of WU Inappropriate Hall of Shame, 1 ban)

And did paper include those annoying speed humps?
If not, maybe next time, or in rewrite.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting tornadodude:


haha alright, will do, I'm tempted to post a picture from last night's discussion.


Poll:
A: Post it
B: Dont post it


B:
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
This is insane!




Something is going to end up happening today.


Tornado Probability:
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Something is going to end up happening today.

yeah, and it's probably me getting banned.....

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This is insane!




Something is going to end up happening today.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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