Philippines brace for Typhoon Mirinae; big snowstorm wallops Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

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Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8+ inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Major snowstorm wallops Colorado
The season's first major snowstorm is walloping Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska and South Dakota today. In the mountain regions just west of Denver, up to 38 inches of snow has fallen, with another 4 - 12 inches possible today. It was the biggest October snowstorm in the Denver region since 1997.

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Tonight
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live tonight (Thursday) at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Jeff Masters

Top Down 4-wheelin (Roaddog1)
We've had about 24" of snow out of this storm so far in Deer Creek Canyon sw of Littleton.
Top Down 4-wheelin
Bye, bye birdies (focusonthis)
They will be heading South for sure after this snowfall.
Bye, bye birdies

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Quoting NRAamy:
Something is going to end up happening today.

yeah, and it's probably me getting banned.....



One could only hope. Do you ever post anything weather related?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
191. I have been looking at radar too long today.. That image reminds me of my last CT scan.
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btw...Has anyone mentioned in the last hour or so that I'm gonna be on Barometer Bob tonight @ 8Pish?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
189. not as bad as da' funktop! LOL
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Quoting Grothar:


Not my quote, read the first part. I was quoting from an article written by someone else. See how things can easily be misunderstood!!

I agree. That is why I always liked Paul Harvey "And that is the rest of the Story". We old farts remember that.
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Disgusting colors, but a different view. No eye yet, though!
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Quoting JamesSA:
Wow...Mirinae!!!



It doesn't look like it is cat 2 anymore. Exploding.


Looks like a halloween ghost in the center.
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this is pretty cool...
">> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea."
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A tornado spotted on Dopler Radar in Muskogee OK
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
If we married him, are we ex- or former cougars?
Notice I'm asking NRAamy!


and just exactly who are we marrying???
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
I'm already married!

Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
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178. i was thinking the same thing when I reloaded the page...wow!
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Quoting Weather456:


Imagine living back then with no computer models, no NOAA, NHC, buoys, satellite imagery. It must of been frightening.


I read an article many years ago, about the local Indians in the region could tell of an approaching storm by observing cloud formations, animals behavior and such. The article also explained how the Pacific Islanders colonized the different Island which were thousands of miles apart. They would go on boats and look for cloud formations on the horizon and would study them for years. Then they would send expeditions toward the clouds and usually would discover another island, because clouds formed over land masses. It may seem boring to some, but I found it interesting. I always wondered how the different Island in the vast Pacific had been colonized by so many different peoples. Just my thought of the day, and weather related. Thanks for that article.
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Wow...Mirinae!!!



It doesn't look like it is cat 2 anymore. Exploding.
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175. ditto! LOL
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

If we married him, are we ex- or former cougars?
Notice I'm asking NRAamy!
from a mans point of view it would be hoped that you would STILL be one
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
173. oh, no! oh, my! what has this place come to?

;)
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Quoting Grothar:


Interesting article on Columbus. They must have had early storms in those years. Too bad they didn't have NOAA back then. Would have saved them a little aggravation. I often wondered what the early Europeans thought when they saw their first Hurricane. Storms like that were unknown to them. Think of the courage it must have taken for them to repeatedly keep going back!


Imagine living back then with no computer models, no NOAA, NHC, buoys, satellite imagery. It must of been frightening.
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alright, I'll be back in about 30 mins, have to get a shower and some lunch (and no, not a golden shower!) :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting pearlandaggie:
164. yeah, yeah...sure. looked like a poor attempt at averting a ban to me! LOL


LOL well, er.. um... ok youre right! :P

¡sʎɐp ʍǝɟ ʇsɐן ǝɥʇ ǝןqɐʎoɾuǝ os uǝǝq sɐɥ ƃoןq ǝɥʇ
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
164. yeah, yeah...sure. looked like a poor attempt at averting a ban to me! LOL
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Quoting Weather456:
Good Afternoon

Interesting read:

The 1502 Hurricane of the Dominican Republic: Columbus’ Hurricane

Tropical Update


Interesting article on Columbus. They must have had early storms in those years. Too bad they didn't have NOAA back then. Would have saved them a little aggravation. I often wondered what the early Europeans thought when they saw their first Hurricane. Storms like that were unknown to them. Think of the courage it must have taken for them to repeatedly keep going back!
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162. LOL!

166. *snort*...yep, they're sneaky alright! LOL
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Quoting NRAamy:
who you callin' a cougar??????

If we married him, are we ex- or former cougars?
Notice I'm asking NRAamy!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Do cougers get chapped hides?


oh my LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
See Ags, it's so subtle. They call my school UTMB, when we all know it should be known as tuMB. Then I wouldn't be tempted to call it a "UT" school. The t-sips are tricky. ;o)
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Quoting NRAamy:
who you callin' a cougar??????
Do cougers get chapped hides?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting pearlandaggie:
158. nice try...i'm sure they're not buying it! LOL


well I was just curious as to how much it actually snows in Mexico this time of year ha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Looks like my rain chances have been bumped up to 90% tonight! In the meantime, the streamers continue.

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155. Oh man! See how they've already indoctrinated me in just 1 1/2 years?! What's happening to me!!! lol
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Cougars??
HMMMMMM!!!!!! serious contemplation!!!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
158. nice try...i'm sure they're not buying it! LOL
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who you callin' a cougar??????
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 316 Comments: 31944
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Cougars??


LOL!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
154. oh, my! LOL

152. you're probably right :)
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150. imposter! if you were a real ag, it would be t.u.! LOL
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Animals???? Only woman on this ark....oh wait change that, will be safer with animals

Cougars??
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:

Cheap shots and politics together. SAY IT ISN'T SO.


Not my quote, read the first part. I was quoting from an article written by someone else. See how things can easily be misunderstood!!
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
LOL @ 137. gathering up those animals is gonna take a while!
Animals???? Only woman on this ark....oh wait change that, will be safer with animals
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting pearlandaggie:
144. hahaha....over everyone's head, i'm sure! LOL

Everyone except you, me, and atmoaggie! XD
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144. Good bull. Always gotta watch your back. Glad to see there are still some Ags out there that respect the traditions ;o)

I may be at a UT school right now, but I will always be an Aggie.
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147. LMFAO!
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144. hahaha....over everyone's head, i'm sure! LOL
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...eeewwwwww....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
Quoting NRAamy:
tdude...I never get tired of those cartoons....

;)


LOL me either

Hey 456
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8185
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Correct, and that is exactly what this one is expected to do as well.

12Z NAM Surface/500 mb


that NAM model shows a pretty strong line of storms for the mid-west!!!
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
130. gig 'em! :)

I would insert a whoop here, but becasue I am only a freshman, that would be bad bull. So I will leave it at this:

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.