Philippines brace for Typhoon Mirinae; big snowstorm wallops Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

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Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8+ inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Major snowstorm wallops Colorado
The season's first major snowstorm is walloping Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska and South Dakota today. In the mountain regions just west of Denver, up to 38 inches of snow has fallen, with another 4 - 12 inches possible today. It was the biggest October snowstorm in the Denver region since 1997.

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Tonight
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live tonight (Thursday) at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Jeff Masters

Top Down 4-wheelin (Roaddog1)
We've had about 24" of snow out of this storm so far in Deer Creek Canyon sw of Littleton.
Top Down 4-wheelin
Bye, bye birdies (focusonthis)
They will be heading South for sure after this snowfall.
Bye, bye birdies

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Ever wrap up saran wrap in knots and light it up. Boy, you just brought back some fond memories.

if you did that, I'm suprised you have any memories at all!!! the fumes!!!!

;)
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Quoting presslord:
all I'm sayin' is...while the tropics aren't real active, it's OK to lighten up just a little...

I fully understand that Press. I have been on this blog for a few years. I guess it's futile to try and explain myself without it sounding like a personal attack so I'll just leave it at that.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
I found something rather interesting just by making my coffee. If I pour the cold creamer into the hot coffee I create whirlpools. They remind me of the radar loops where the clouds circle and converge in a tropical low. Does the effect of the thunderstorms cooling the air cause some of the same issues in a TD. I think way too much sometimes.


Too bad you weren't around in the 1960's, you would have seen colors and swirls you never thought existed. Ever wrap us saran wrap in knots and light it up. Boy, you just brought back some fond memories.
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Quoting beell:


press is from the south-you just have to put up with the drawl



yyyeeeaaaup
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I find it funny you post that in Dr. Master's blog when he is an avid believer in the "nonsense".

and no one is allowed to question his beliefs? I find THAT funny. Dr. Masters has never shied away from discussion. Why do you give him such little credit?
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Quoting superpete:
P 229: Thanx Grothar/ got to master my image posting skills lol


No problem, after Flood and presslord taught me, it only took me 6 months to get it right. lol.
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Quoting NRAamy:
I guess junkie missed the 100's of times this week the guys were talking about football...on here....

or the JFV comments....

or the politics....

or the trolls....

or Global Warming nonsense...



Yes I missed all those other comments as I am not on here 24/7. It never fails that when I do check this blog I can ALWAYS count on NRAAmy comments being there and they're always off topic. Global warming nonsense? I find it funny you post that in Dr. Master's blog when he is an avid believer in the "nonsense". I'm sure you're absolutely qualified to refute all of the overwhelming scientific evidence that 99.9% of the scientific community regards as factual.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
237. beell
Quoting StormChaser81:


I need weather 24 hrs a Day, to live. weather with drawl is a real problem these days.


press is from the south-you just have to put up with the drawl
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P 229: Thanx Grothar/ got to master my image posting skills lol
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I found something rather interesting just by making my coffee. If I pour the cold creamer into the hot coffee I create whirlpools. They remind me of the radar loops where the clouds circle and converge in a tropical low. Does the effect of the thunderstorms cooling the air cause some of the same issues in a TD. I think way too much sometimes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
and, there is this thing called The Ignore button...I hear it really works well....you don't like my posts...easy solution...IGNORE ME......

:)


POOF!

jk (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
and, there is this thing called The Ignore button...I hear it really works well....you don't like my posts...easy solution...IGNORE ME......

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Junkie,since you aren't really new here,I'm pretty sure,you've seen the subjects discussed in here all over the place,except during the heart of tropical season,you will see anything and everything here,and Amy adding a humor to the blog isn't such a bad thing.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 877 Comments: 15709
Quoting presslord:
all I'm sayin' is...while the tropics aren't real active, it's OK to lighten up just a little...


I need weather 24 hrs a Day, to live. weather with drawl is a real problem these days.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting Grothar:


Show them. The town in which I was born, Lloyd Harbor, Huntington, NY was the first town to receive a charter in NY. I believe it was 1650. Not sure now of exact year. My mother was on the Historical Society. The did preservation of grave sites and such. She was walking once with another memeber and was looking at the Headstones on the graves from the 1600's and saw entire families there. She said she felt so badly that they died so young, but if they had lived, they would be over 300 years old now. That is a true story.


Just posted on my blog.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting superpete:
...Meanwhile back here in the Caribbean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

An afternoon flare-up due south of Jamaica



Here is the flare-up
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all I'm sayin' is...while the tropics aren't real active, it's OK to lighten up just a little...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
Is there something I'm missing here?


yea...a sense of humor...


Oh I see. I didn't realize she was here as designated comic relief. Now that I know that I'll just keep my mouth shut. Back to lurking...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
I guess junkie missed the 100's of times this week the guys were talking about football...on here....

or the JFV comments....

or the politics....

or the trolls....

or Global Warming nonsense...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30 more minutes to the "Going Green" conference call. How to get the most efficiency from the cooling system in the IDC. Computers have a serious thirst for energy that is dissipated as heat. An hour of my life that I will never get back.
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Is there something I'm missing here?


yea...a sense of humor...
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Quoting tornadodude:


somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bed :P


No, it's just that every time I come into this blog, about every 10th comment is NRAAmy posting some stupid comment and they're NEVER weather related. Isn't this a weather blog? Off topic is grounds for banning as evidenced by the numerous times she's been banned. Did I pay my subscription fee for that? No, I didn't. I don't know why that makes me into the villain. Is there something I'm missing here?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
Press...OMG...

or should I say....come again?
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Just celebrated 450 this year. King Juan Carlos and Queen Sophia were here for it. I got pictures. :)


Show them. The town in which I was born, Lloyd Harbor, Huntington, NY was the first town to receive a charter in NY. I believe it was 1650. Not sure now of exact year. My mother was on the Historical Society. The did preservation of grave sites and such. She was walking once with another memeber and was looking at the Headstones on the graves from the 1600's and saw entire families there. She said she felt so badly that they died so young, but if they had lived, they would be over 300 years old now. That is a true story.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...Meanwhile back here in the Caribbean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

An afternoon flare-up due south of Jamaica
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Quoting NRAamy:
I always defend the underdog

I'm waiting....

;)

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
...plus....Amy is the mother of a wonderful set of twins...who, no doubt, will defend her...
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hahaha!

;)

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Quoting NRAamy:
I always defend the underdog

I'm waiting....

;)


I don't think you need my assistance. You do pretty well on your own. If you need some mediation, perhaps I could help, but otherwise, you do well. Glad I'm on your side!!!
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Quoting Grothar:


I always thought is was St. Augustine, but you did qualify that with "continuous". Never knew that about Pensacola.

Just celebrated 450 this year. King Juan Carlos and Queen Sophia were here for it. I got pictures. :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
213. xcool
slidell la high in sea level. their new orleans..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting Grothar:


You remember him?


"Good day!" with an up lilt to day
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:


If it wasn't for hurricanes, Pensacola would probably be the oldest continuous settlement in the US. AS it is, we are the oldest settlement, but not continuous.
from wikipedia:
"Due to prior exploration, the first settlement of Pensacola was large, landing on August 15, 1559, [2] and led by Don Tristán de Luna y Arellano with over 1,400 people on 11 ships from Vera Cruz, Mexico.[4] However, weeks later, the colony was decimated by a hurricane on September 19, 1559,[4][2] which killed hundreds, sank 5 ships, grounded a caravel, and ruined supplies. The 1,000 survivors divided to relocate/resupply the settlement, but due to famine and attacks, the effort was abandoned in 1561. About 240 people sailed to Santa Elena (today's Parris Island, South Carolina), but another storm hit there, so they sailed to Cuba and scattered.[4] The remaining 50 at Pensacola were taken back to Mexico, and the Viceroy's advisors concluded northwest Florida was too dangerous to settle, for 135 years."


I always thought is was St. Augustine, but you did qualify that with "continuous". Never knew that about Pensacola.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Hopped up? I have yet to see you post ANY meaningful weather content on here, only political jabs, jokes and stupid comments. Case in point, you calling me "hopped up". Sorry if that came off rude but you'd have to be stupid not to agree. I mean really, doctored pictures of Al Gore spitting fire? How mature is that? I try not to get into it with anyone here as it usually doesn't do any good but after the umpteenth dumb remark I just couldn't help myself.


somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bed :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8306
I always defend the underdog

I'm waiting....

;)
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Quoting HurricaneNewbie:

Showing my age but yes I do remember him.


I remember my Daddy talking about him! jk

I always defend the underdog. I guess that comes from being the youngest of 9 children I was always getting blamed for everything. If something broke, my brothers and sisters always told my parents I had done it. Nasty people they were, my siblings I mean.
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Quoting Weather456:


Imagine living back then with no computer models, no NOAA, NHC, buoys, satellite imagery. It must of been frightening.


If it wasn't for hurricanes, Pensacola would probably be the oldest continuous settlement in the US. AS it is, we are the oldest settlement, but not continuous.
from wikipedia:
"Due to prior exploration, the first settlement of Pensacola was large, landing on August 15, 1559, [2] and led by Don Tristán de Luna y Arellano with over 1,400 people on 11 ships from Vera Cruz, Mexico.[4] However, weeks later, the colony was decimated by a hurricane on September 19, 1559,[4][2] which killed hundreds, sank 5 ships, grounded a caravel, and ruined supplies. The 1,000 survivors divided to relocate/resupply the settlement, but due to famine and attacks, the effort was abandoned in 1561. About 240 people sailed to Santa Elena (today's Parris Island, South Carolina), but another storm hit there, so they sailed to Cuba and scattered.[4] The remaining 50 at Pensacola were taken back to Mexico, and the Viceroy's advisors concluded northwest Florida was too dangerous to settle, for 135 years."
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting NRAamy:
Do you ever post anything weather related?

junkie....yes, I have and do....if you weren't so hopped up, you'd see them....


Hopped up? I have yet to see you post ANY meaningful weather content on here, only political jabs, jokes and stupid comments. Case in point, you calling me "hopped up". Sorry if that came off rude but you'd have to be stupid not to agree. I mean really, doctored pictures of Al Gore spitting fire? How mature is that? I try not to get into it with anyone here as it usually doesn't do any good but after the umpteenth dumb remark I just couldn't help myself.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
I like nelson a lot...but in the interest of accuracy...he flew on the shuttle as a Congressional observer...
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My Local Weather:

John Wayne-Orange County, California

65 °F

Mostly Cloudy

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Quoting pearlandaggie:


this is pretty cool...
">> MIRINAE, meaning: Milky Way. Name contributed by: Korea."


Looks like it will hit right in the middle of the Philippines. Changed course a little from yesterday. That looks like an awful lot of rain for them.
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Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Received this in my email this morning:

Dear Mr. Walsh III:

Thank you for contacting me regarding S. Amendment 2666, which would cut funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by $172 million. I oppose this amendment, because a budget cut of that magnitude would severely impact NOAA's ability to prepare the United States for hurricanes, thus undermining public safety and the public good.

Since 2003, hurricanes and other tropical cyclones have caused more than 2,000 deaths in the United States. These extreme weather events also cause significant economic devastation. Insured losses average more than $5.2 billion per year in the U.S. A recent study of hurricane-related damages over the last century suggests that economic losses will double every ten years. With more than 50 percent of the U.S. population living within 50 miles of the coast, and with 180 million people visiting the coast annually, the risks to life and property are growing. Clearly, there is an urgent need for substantial improvements in hurricane forecasting and planning--not budget cuts.

NOAA serves a vital role in forecasting and tracking severe weather patterns. Cuts to its budget would stall NOAA's Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project Plan and the agency's plans for a new system to replace the QuikSCAT, an aging satellite used to monitor ocean surface wind and waves.

I have worked for years to ensure that Florida and the U.S. are better protected and prepared for hurricanes. I will continue to fight for funding for NOAA that ensures our safety in the face of severe and deadly storms. Please do not hesitate to contact me in the future with your thoughts.
Sincerely,
Senator Bill Nelson


If I could send a not to Senator Nelson it would go like this.......

Thanks Senator Nelson. Its things like this that continue to make me feel good that I voted for you, and will support you if you run again.

This man is a great public servant, and a former Astronaught Hero.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


One could only hope. Do you ever post anything weather related?

oh don't be mean.
Quoting NRAamy:
Do you ever post anything weather related?

junkie....yes, I have and do....if you weren't so hopped up, you'd see them....

+1 Score!
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Quoting Grothar:


You remember him?

Showing my age but yes I do remember him.
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Quoting HurricaneNewbie:

I agree. That is why I always liked Paul Harvey "And that is the rest of the Story". We old farts remember that.


You remember him?
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Do you ever post anything weather related?

junkie....yes, I have and do....if you weren't so hopped up, you'd see them....
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a radio program
try the link in Dr. Masters blog...
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Re Cougar discussion/analysis:
My hubby says it would make me an "ex" (cougar, not ex-wife...yet...)
I think he thinks that's a good thing...
Otherwise, sob, sob, sniff, sniff

Think I'd better get off the blog for awhile and attend to domestic/wifely duties. Aforesaid husband called in sick today...brought home ice cream...chocolate!
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Quoting presslord:
btw...Has anyone mentioned in the last hour or so that I'm gonna be on Barometer Bob tonight @ 8Pish?

I will open my mouth and insert foot. What is Barometer Bob?
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Quoting NRAamy:
Something is going to end up happening today.

yeah, and it's probably me getting banned.....



One could only hope. Do you ever post anything weather related?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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