Philippines brace for Typhoon Mirinae; big snowstorm wallops Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

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Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8+ inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Major snowstorm wallops Colorado
The season's first major snowstorm is walloping Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska and South Dakota today. In the mountain regions just west of Denver, up to 38 inches of snow has fallen, with another 4 - 12 inches possible today. It was the biggest October snowstorm in the Denver region since 1997.

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Tonight
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live tonight (Thursday) at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Jeff Masters

Top Down 4-wheelin (Roaddog1)
We've had about 24" of snow out of this storm so far in Deer Creek Canyon sw of Littleton.
Top Down 4-wheelin
Bye, bye birdies (focusonthis)
They will be heading South for sure after this snowfall.
Bye, bye birdies

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294. pearlandaggie
7:30 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
oh, my....
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
293. StormChaser81
7:29 PM GMT on October 29, 2009


St. Petersburg
A Few Clouds

88 F
(31 C)
Humidity: 59 %
Wind Speed: E 8 MPH
Barometer: 29.98" (1015.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 72 F (22 C)
Heat Index: 95 F (35 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
292. Beachfoxx
7:29 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Hey HK....

Bravo..... and outside I go.
Time to play
the weather is great!
YOLO!!!
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Hey I said that. He was quoting me. My credit. LOL j/k
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
291. DrNo
7:29 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
I will wear my forthcoming ban as a badge of honor...
290. hurricanejunky
7:29 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting HurricaneKing:


My point was you picked her out but people like weatherstudent(JFV) aand his followers comment a whole lot more than she does. Or what about the caster callers? Most of what she says is funny or meant to be the others not so much.


Or in laymans terms why don't you pick on someone that's actually trying to be mean and hateful and leave the decent people alone.


I don't understand for the life of me how JFV/WS keeps getting back on here. Or StormNo or whatever other trolls there are. Sorry, but the political jabs are certainly hateful. Politics usually brings about mean-spiritedness so that's why I like coming onto this blog because I can escape all that political and religious talk that permeates almost everything else. Unfortunately, I was mistaken.

On a weather related note: Is your handle in reference to the 1950 Hurricane King?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
289. tornadodude
7:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting DrNo:
RE: 282

You are a fine one to talk, sonny. We hear about your job, Purdue athletics, etc, ad nauseum. You talk about the weather less than most.


I'm not the one complaining about the topics of this blog, that is you. so talk weather, and quit complaining
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
288. eyesontheweather
7:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Thanks for the support. I couldn't have said it better myself.
If Ya'all are on here for "the weather" as you said you sure have an uncanny ability to avoid it. Let it go, move on and discuss the weather.

We are haveing nasty stuff in Ok with tornadoes and hail.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
287. DrNo
7:28 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
You are a young boy craving attention...
286. tornadodude
7:27 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
TD, this one is for your weather calculation crunching computer...


reminds me of my issues with Linux (:


LOL I feel ya! thanks (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
285. DrNo
7:27 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
RE: 282

You are a fine one to talk, sonny. We hear about your job, Purdue athletics, etc, ad nauseum. You talk about the weather less than most.
284. Beachfoxx
7:27 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
OK, its the weather here is too nice to be inside, playing on a Weather Blog...
Its YOLO time, plus I wanna get the new "do" wet.

*for you guys "do" is the new haircut!*
ROFL

The water is gonna be cold! Its only about 75° give or take (I haven't checked water temp in a few days)
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
283. pearlandaggie
7:25 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
TD, this one is for your weather calculation crunching computer...
Link

reminds me of my issues with Linux (:
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
282. tornadodude
7:24 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
For those here who are complaining about some people on this blog, and that we dont stay on topic, do this:

Put us on your ignore list, quit complaining, and talk about the weather!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
281. hurricanejunky
7:24 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting DrNo:
hurricanejunky is absolutely correct. I see the usual suspects ganging up on him, but when someone does it to any of you, you flag, and whine, and condemn. This should be a private blog, because it is dominated by a little circle who can do no wrong. One says to lighten up, but he is the first to complain when someone disagrees with him. It is really sickening AND hypocritical...

Administrator: Go ahead and BAN me. THIS BLOG IS A JOKE!


Thanks for the support. I couldn't have said it better myself.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
280. HurricaneKing
7:24 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah, I was complimenting you on that one too


Thanks.
Oh and to go weather related It's cloudy here still today in Nc.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
279. Beachfoxx
7:24 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
PCola has some very interesting history!
Quoting PcolaDan:


If it wasn't for hurricanes, Pensacola would probably be the oldest continuous settlement in the US. AS it is, we are the oldest settlement, but not continuous.
from wikipedia:
"Due to prior exploration, the first settlement of Pensacola was large, landing on August 15, 1559, [2] and led by Don Tristán de Luna y Arellano with over 1,400 people on 11 ships from Vera Cruz, Mexico.[4] However, weeks later, the colony was decimated by a hurricane on September 19, 1559,[4][2] which killed hundreds, sank 5 ships, grounded a caravel, and ruined supplies. The 1,000 survivors divided to relocate/resupply the settlement, but due to famine and attacks, the effort was abandoned in 1561. About 240 people sailed to Santa Elena (today's Parris Island, South Carolina), but another storm hit there, so they sailed to Cuba and scattered.[4] The remaining 50 at Pensacola were taken back to Mexico, and the Viceroy's advisors concluded northwest Florida was too dangerous to settle, for 135 years."
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
278. tornadodude
7:23 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Hey I said that. He was quoting me. My credit. LOL j/k


haha yeah, I was complimenting you on that one too
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
277. HurricaneKing
7:21 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Bravo!!!!!!



Hey I said that. He was quoting me. My credit. LOL j/k
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
276. pearlandaggie
7:21 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
273. i would agree with you on that! LOL...a lot of other people, however.....not so much!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
275. NOLaHSE
7:21 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
I agree with you junky. I've just learned to ignore ignorance. You have to understand that its a small little clique and they're defending her blindly.

Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
274. Beachfoxx
7:21 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Bravo!!!!!!

Quoting tornadodude:
266.why don't you pick on someone that's actually trying to be mean and hateful and leave the decent people alone.

+1
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
273. Beachfoxx
7:20 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
WUnderful!
If only...... we could have an Endless Summer!
Then it would be perfect!
Quoting tornadodude:


hey, how's it going?
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
272. DrNo
7:20 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
There are different sets of standards here, that is for sure...
271. tornadodude
7:19 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
266.why don't you pick on someone that's actually trying to be mean and hateful and leave the decent people alone.

+1
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
270. Beachfoxx
7:19 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Not!

I said it was beautiful here on the coast! Perfect weather! and "H" season is almost over!

*sigh of releif*
Heck its 86° -------> I think I might go get my YOLO board and head for the water!
Quoting NRAamy:
Hi Donna!!

oops....we're off topic!!!!!!

:)
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
269. pearlandaggie
7:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
MichaelSTL...is THAT you???

LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
268. hurricanejunky
7:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting NRAamy:
but I find her to be more like that person at the party who is always trying to be the center of attention.

dude, you got me...you're so right...I'm just a whore for attention...I have no self esteem...I need others to laugh at me, not with me, in order to feel good about myself...thank you for bringing this to my attention...can I call you JunkieOprah?

The first step in recovery is admitting there is a problem. Excellent. You can call me HurricaneJunky as I like to stick with the weather topics but for some reason I keep getting steered off course.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
267. DrNo
7:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
And banning me won't change the truth...
266. HurricaneKing
7:18 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Huh? I do get onto this blog enough to know who the people are that post off-topic most or all of the time. This is not a semantic discussion and I never was engaged in a debate about what it's called so I don't know where that came from.

I may not agree entirely with it but at least YOUR viewpoint would warrant discussion, as NRAAmy puts it. I don't think when someone deems it "nonsense" that they're open to discussing it because they've obviously dismissed it, thus the term "nonsense".


My point was you picked her out but people like weatherstudent(JFV) aand his followers comment a whole lot more than she does. Or what about the caster callers? Most of what she says is funny or meant to be the others not so much.


Or in laymans terms why don't you pick on someone that's actually trying to be mean and hateful and leave the decent people alone.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
265. tornadodude
7:17 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Hey all....

Beautiful day here on the coast!

Hi Amy!


hey, how's it going?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
264. DrNo
7:17 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
hurricanejunky is absolutely correct. I see the usual suspects ganging up on him, but when someone does it to any of you, you flag, and whine, and condemn. This should be a private blog, because it is dominated by a little circle who can do no wrong. One says to lighten up, but he is the first to complain when someone disagrees with him. It is really sickening AND hypocritical...

Administrator: Go ahead and BAN me. THIS BLOG IS A JOKE!
263. pearlandaggie
7:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I don't think when someone deems it "nonsense" that they're open to discussing it because they've obviously dismissed it, thus the term "nonsense".


actually, this is quite common on both sides...
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
262. HIEXPRESS
7:16 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Too bad you weren't around in the 1960's, you would have seen colors and swirls you never thought existed. Ever wrap us saran wrap in knots and light it up. Boy, you just brought back some fond memories.


Um.. Let's not play with fire kids. You will get burned or hurt some one. Do I need to post those pics? Didn't think so.

BTW: Buy (alkaline) batteries now for your smoke detectors that have batteries. It is recommended that you change them twice/yr when you reset your clocks for DST. 10Q
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
261. NRAamy
7:15 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Hi Donna!!

oops....we're off topic!!!!!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
260. Beachfoxx
7:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Hey all....

Beautiful day here on the coast!

Hi Amy!
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29383
259. hurricanejunky
7:13 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Haha She's on here a lot less than what she pointed out. Comments like what she mentioned are on here 99.9% of the time when I log on yet you pick her to talk about?

Also speaking about global warming she can call it whatever she wants just like you can call it whatever you want. I personally think it's happening but humans are only causing a tiny part of it and it's mostly overrated.


Huh? I do get onto this blog enough to know who the people are that post off-topic most or all of the time. This is not a semantic discussion and I never was engaged in a debate about what it's called so I don't know where that came from.

I may not agree entirely with it but at least YOUR viewpoint would warrant discussion, as NRAAmy puts it. I don't think when someone deems it "nonsense" that they're open to discussing it because they've obviously dismissed it, thus the term "nonsense".
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
258. pearlandaggie
7:12 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
asteroid that recently exploded over Indonesia...
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
257. HurricaneKing
7:12 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
255. that's not the sound barrier being broken...the top secret force field has been outed! LOL


It's a sonic shield. LOL
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
256. pearlandaggie
7:10 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
255. that's not the sound barrier being broken...the top secret force field has been outed! DOH!

j/k :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
255. superpete
7:09 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Post 245: Patrap-an amazing shot of the sound barrier being broken there
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 632
253. pearlandaggie
7:08 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
sorry...just thought that would give people a chuckle :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
252. HurricaneKing
7:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
MichaelSTL...is that you?


LOL


LOL Thats sadly funny.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
251. xcool
7:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2009






Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting pearlandaggie:
MichaelSTL...is that you?


LOL


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
"In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act."
--George Orwell


LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting NEwxguy:
Junkie,since you aren't really new here,I'm pretty sure,you've seen the subjects discussed in here all over the place,except during the heart of tropical season,you will see anything and everything here,and Amy adding a humor to the blog isn't such a bad thing.


Point taken but already understood before you typed it. It's a matter of preference I guess. I find others to be funny but I find her to be more like that person at the party who is always trying to be the center of attention. It gets on my last nerve after a while. Sorry if you don't understand that. Sorry if I've offended anyone. Just my opinion.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yes I missed all those other comments as I am not on here 24/7. It never fails that when I do check this blog I can ALWAYS count on NRAAmy comments being there and they're always off topic. Global warming nonsense? I find it funny you post that in Dr. Master's blog when he is an avid believer in the "nonsense". I'm sure you're absolutely qualified to refute all of the overwhelming scientific evidence that 99.9% of the scientific community regards as factual.


Haha She's on here a lot less than what she pointed out. Comments like what she mentioned are on here 99.9% of the time when I log on yet you pick her to talk about?

Also speaking about global warming she can call it whatever she wants just like you can call it whatever you want. I personally think it's happening but humans are only causing a tiny part of it and it's mostly overrated.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2465
MichaelSTL...is that you?


LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
ARES 1-X Goes Supersonic after Launch yesterday.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ever wrap up saran wrap in knots and light it up. Boy, you just brought back some fond memories.

if you did that, I'm suprised you have any memories at all!!! the fumes!!!!

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.