Philippines brace for Typhoon Mirinae; big snowstorm wallops Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

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Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8+ inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Major snowstorm wallops Colorado
The season's first major snowstorm is walloping Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska and South Dakota today. In the mountain regions just west of Denver, up to 38 inches of snow has fallen, with another 4 - 12 inches possible today. It was the biggest October snowstorm in the Denver region since 1997.

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Tonight
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live tonight (Thursday) at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Jeff Masters

Top Down 4-wheelin (Roaddog1)
We've had about 24" of snow out of this storm so far in Deer Creek Canyon sw of Littleton.
Top Down 4-wheelin
Bye, bye birdies (focusonthis)
They will be heading South for sure after this snowfall.
Bye, bye birdies

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Quoting Skyepony:


It's all those rain deficits ya'll keep posting & the look of the way the current El Nino is going that is making me begin to think we maybe in for a bad fire season next year.


Yeah, I think we're in for an historic fire season! My only hope is the wetter El Nino winter will help. We haven't gotten into the meat of that yet so hopefully once the strong winter fronts starting rolling through they'll bring some training bands of rain with them.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
Quoting capeflorida:

Chill out dude. I am giving you the best advise you ever had. You are a young good looking guy attending an elite university without one worry(except maybe for that paper that is due in 2 days). One day, when you get older, you will look back at this time and you will realise that this were the majic years of your life and I don't want you to have any regrets like most oo us older guys in here. This is your time ENJOY it now!!!!


alright, thanks for the advice
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Probably not! They always stall before they get to us! ARRRGGHH!! We need the rain and the window weather would be nice too.


This bazaar weather pattern shall end next week. But before then models have now come into better agreement in pushing a backdoor cool front(more like a wind-shifter) down the peninsula(though by the time it get's to you, it'll just be a northeast surge). Orlando should see nighttime lows in the mid-upper 60's with dewpoints in the 60's(as opposed to the lower to mid 70's and dewpoints in the 70's).

I wouldn't doubt if we see a 58 degree dewpoint during optimum mixing(2-5 PM).

For next week, I'm more inclined to believe the GFS(which stall the next front over the lower straights/Cuba) since the European has suffered some convective feedback issues as of late.

Unfortunately, we'll have to wait until the NAO reverts back to negative before we see a shot at some really cold air. Anyone know when the North Atlantic Oscillation will revert back to negative and the PNA to positive?
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Quoting tornadodude:


LOL I dont find a weather blog to be a waste of my time when I am pursuing a MET degree anyway, and about getting laid, none of your business you creeper

Chill out dude. I am giving you the best advise you ever had. You are a young good looking guy attending an elite university without one worry(except maybe for that paper that is due in 2 days). One day, when you get older, you will look back at this time and you will realise that this were the majic years of your life and I don't want you to have any regrets like most oo us older guys in here. This is your time ENJOY it now!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
340. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I don't want any destructive severe weather but we REALLY need the rain. We're about 20 inches negative on rain. Terrible rainy season. Some wet and/or slow moving fronts would help. Seems last winter most of the fronts were devoid of rain. This year hopefully that'll change. I know north and central florida gets bad severe weather during El Nino winters.


It's all those rain deficits ya'll keep posting & the look of the way the current El Nino is going that is making me begin to think we maybe in for a bad fire season next year.
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Quoting Skyepony:
hurricanejunky~ I hear ya on the rain. Had a little with the front the other night but overall lacking. I dislike the mature El Niño in FL. It's winter violent storms when we get rain, then usually followed by harsh drought. '83 & '98 (2nd year of a dug in El Niño) the state near burnt down. Those are worse than hurricane years IMO. Hope that's not what we get next spring & summer. even '03 started to be a bad fire year. Luckly we came out of El Niño quicker than '83 & '98.
Sounds like a nightmare. Is it safe to assume then that when a wetter than normal SE US is predicted that it typically does not apply to the FL. peninsula. Cause I would have thought that an El Nino would be bringing more rain to the peninsula.
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Quoting Skyepony:
hurricanejunky~ I hear ya on the rain. Had a little with the front the other night but overall lacking. I dislike the mature El Niño in FL. It's winter violent storms when we get rain, then usually followed by harsh drought. '83 & '98 (2nd year of a dug in El Niño) the state near burnt down. Those are worse than hurricane years IMO. Hope that's not what we get next spring & summer. even '03 started to be a bad fire year. Luckly we came out of El Niño quicker than '83 & '98.


I don't want any destructive severe weather but we REALLY need the rain. We're about 20 inches negative on rain. Terrible rainy season. Some wet and/or slow moving fronts would help. Seems last winter most of the fronts were devoid of rain. This year hopefully that'll change. I know north and central florida gets bad severe weather during El Nino winters.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
Quoting hurricanejunky:


North Fort Myers, FL. About 120 miles south of Tampa on the West Coast of FL. Cold fronts tend to stall out around Tampa or a bit south and they neither bring rain or cold when they do that. Maybe this one will be strong enough to get down here.


oh alright, well I hope it reaches you, we seem to get plenty of them here in Indiana
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
335. Skyepony (Mod)
hurricanejunky~ I hear ya on the rain. Had a little with the front the other night but overall lacking. I dislike the mature El Niño in FL. It's winter violent storms when we get rain, then usually followed by harsh drought. '83 & '98 (2nd year of a dug in El Niño) the state near burnt down. Those are worse than hurricane years IMO. Hope that's not what we get next spring & summer. even '03 started to be a bad fire year. Luckly we came out of El Niño quicker than '83 & '98.
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Quoting tornadodude:



where are you from anyway?


North Fort Myers, FL. About 120 miles south of Tampa on the West Coast of FL. Cold fronts tend to stall out around Tampa or a bit south and they neither bring rain or cold when they do that. Maybe this one will be strong enough to get down here.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
333. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
Quoting capeflorida:
Dude

I have to agree with you. Tornadodude is here 24/7 trying to get attention. Hey dude when do you study and more important when do you get laid? you are wasting the best years or your life in here !!!! y


LOL I dont find a weather blog to be a waste of my time when I am pursuing a MET degree anyway, and about getting laid, none of your business you creeper
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347

Quoting hurricanejunky:


Probably not! They always stall before they get to us! ARRRGGHH!! We need the rain and the window weather would be nice too.


where are you from anyway?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
329. Skyepony (Mod)
May see some strengthening as Mirinae hits that warmer patch before landfall.

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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Tulsa area.. Is this front not going to push through into S FL


Probably not! They always stall before they get to us! ARRRGGHH!! We need the rain and the window weather would be nice too.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
Quoting hurricanejunky:


By "we" you mean all the off-topic posters? Just wanted to clarify. It just kills you people to try and talk about weather. If it's so boring then go to a social blog/site and have at it. Leave this wonderful weather resource unpolluted for the rest of us. Dr. Masters works hard on this blog for it to turn into myspace.
Jeez, here we go again, What happened to: Agreed. What are the models showing on Carribean / Gulf development? Sorry, but I am definitely a wishcaster right now. We are so far in the deficit on rain that we could REALLY use a disturbance or TS to wash over us slowly right now and dump about 6 inches or so of rain in SWFL! Terrible rainy season. Hopefully the El Nino winter will help. We can only hope! Are there tornadoes on the ground now? What part of OK? Anywhere near Paul's Valley?
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Quoting HurricaneKing:


This arguement is getting stupid. Amy's ;eft for crying out loud. I think it's time for everyone on both sides to just stop.

I honestly didn't know about Hurricane King when I made it. It was when the blogs first opened and I was around 14 or 15 and thought it "sounded cool." If I was to make a user name now I'd probably go with the cliché weathermanLee since in a couple years I'll have my met degree.

I'm done with the argument, if that's what you want to call it. I wasn't arguing, I was actually asking a question initially. Of course it got blown out of proportion because it was immediately taken as an attack. DrNo summed it up best.

Congrats on your getting your met degree. Some of my family went through Hurricane King and it was NASTY. If you're a student of hurricane history you'll find it interesting to read about it.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
Quoting StormChaser81:


Thats funny....



LOL it made me laugh (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
moisture in the sw caribbean slowly spreading northward.
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322. Skyepony (Mod)
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 OCT 2009 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 15:29:37 N Lon : 127:48:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 980.2mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.9 3.8 3.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.6mb

Center Temp : -85.1C Cloud Region Temp : -82.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Quoting PcolaDan:




haha you know I'm just messing with ya
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting capeflorida:
Dude

I have to agree with you. Tornadodude is here 24/7 trying to get attention. Hey dude when do you study and more important when do you get laid? you are wasting the best years or your life in here !!!! y


Thats funny....
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
Quoting tornadodude:


How's it going PepsiColaDan ;)


Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting tornadodude:


so shall we


By "we" you mean all the off-topic posters? Just wanted to clarify. It just kills you people to try and talk about weather. If it's so boring then go to a social blog/site and have at it. Leave this wonderful weather resource unpolluted for the rest of us. Dr. Masters works hard on this blog for it to turn into myspace.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Agreed. What are the models showing on Carribean / Gulf development? Sorry, but I am definitely a wishcaster right now. We are so far in the deficit on rain that we could REALLY use a disturbance or TS to wash over us slowly right now and dump about 6 inches or so of rain in SWFL! Terrible rainy season. Hopefully the El Nino winter will help. We can only hope! Are there tornadoes on the ground now? What part of OK? Anywhere near Paul's Valley?
Tulsa area.. Is this front not going to push through into S FL
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i guess it's close to D-max for Mirinae...
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting eyesontheweather:
If Ya'all are on here for "the weather" as you said you sure have an uncanny ability to avoid it. Let it go, move on and discuss the weather.

We are haveing nasty stuff in Ok with tornadoes and hail.


Agreed. What are the models showing on Carribean / Gulf development? Sorry, but I am definitely a wishcaster right now. We are so far in the deficit on rain that we could REALLY use a disturbance or TS to wash over us slowly right now and dump about 6 inches or so of rain in SWFL! Terrible rainy season. Hopefully the El Nino winter will help. We can only hope! Are there tornadoes on the ground now? What part of OK? Anywhere near Paul's Valley?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
Quoting PcolaDan:


Looks like most of the convection is ESE of what appears to be the center of rotation which I see at roughly 16/126.5.


How's it going PepsiColaDan ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
308. yeah, it's become more lopsided as of late....
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
you can really see the convection expand...
Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop


Looks like most of the convection is ESE of what appears to be the center of rotation which I see at roughly 16/126.5.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
It's getting closer to me
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting pearlandaggie:
you can really see the convection expand...
Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop


Impressive
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
you can really see the convection expand...
Floater - Funktop Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting NEwxguy:


And finally we find something to agree on.


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
303. 789
Quoting tornadodude:


so shall we
were is flood havent seen him post for awhile
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Quoting DrNo:
To those of you who are remaining on topic, like StormChaser81, I apologize. Out of deference to you, I will stop now and wait for my ban... I shall enjoy it.


And finally we find something to agree on.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 878 Comments: 15739
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I don't understand for the life of me how JFV/WS keeps getting back on here. Or StormNo or whatever other trolls there are. Sorry, but the political jabs are certainly hateful. Politics usually brings about mean-spiritedness so that's why I like coming onto this blog because I can escape all that political and religious talk that permeates almost everything else. Unfortunately, I was mistaken.

On a weather related note: Is your handle in reference to the 1950 Hurricane King?


This arguement is getting stupid. Amy's ;eft for crying out loud. I think it's time for everyone on both sides to just stop.

I honestly didn't know about Hurricane King when I made it. It was when the blogs first opened and I was around 14 or 15 and thought it "sounded cool." If I was to make a user name now I'd probably go with the cliché weathermanLee since in a couple years I'll have my met degree.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 71 Comments: 2481
300. DrNo
So be it...
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interesting outflow pattern...

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting DrNo:
I shall enjoy it.


so shall we
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
297. DrNo
To those of you who are remaining on topic, like StormChaser81, I apologize. Out of deference to you, I will stop now and wait for my ban... I shall enjoy it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
oh, my....
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.