Philippines brace for Typhoon Mirinae; big snowstorm wallops Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

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Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8+ inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Major snowstorm wallops Colorado
The season's first major snowstorm is walloping Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska and South Dakota today. In the mountain regions just west of Denver, up to 38 inches of snow has fallen, with another 4 - 12 inches possible today. It was the biggest October snowstorm in the Denver region since 1997.

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Tonight
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live tonight (Thursday) at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Jeff Masters

Top Down 4-wheelin (Roaddog1)
We've had about 24" of snow out of this storm so far in Deer Creek Canyon sw of Littleton.
Top Down 4-wheelin
Bye, bye birdies (focusonthis)
They will be heading South for sure after this snowfall.
Bye, bye birdies

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take care, Jerry!!!!!!!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, made the conscious thought to leave it alone...


I appreciate your forebearance...

Well, folks, I have to run...time to get sedated for my MRI

There are only two things I'm truly phobic about: heights and enclosed spaces. My son tiold me the other day that I was lucky they didn't have MRI machines on the roof

I'll be back later, likely, but I can't speak to how coherent I'll be...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
bwaaaahahahah what are the odds of the same lingo (he must have been in lurk mode)

either that or Jerry and I are linked...maybe he's my long lost twin????


:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting presslord:
Tonight!! 8 P EDT!! Be there!!! Aloha!!!!

www.barometerboshow.com


I'll be there, but press, I can't promise how much I'll remember; I'm going to have my
Quoting atmoaggie:

Likewise, Floodman...

Went to the Museum of the Gulf Coast in Port Arthur. And, of course, they have a HUGE section about Janis...even her hand painted hippie car (cannot remember the model). I think you would like...

Addendum: Oh yeah: 1965 356 Cabriolet


A man after my own heart...my wife can;t stand Janis, but something about that woman's voice just got me...
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Quoting NRAamy:
I have no qualms about admitting to being hopped up though

( purple hippo runs from the blog, screaming in laughter...sorry, Jerry..inside joke from earlier today....)


;)

bwaaaahahahah what are the odds of the same lingo (he must have been in lurk mode)
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Tonight!! 8 P EDT!! Be there!!! Aloha!!!!

www.barometerboshow.com
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
From SPC storm reports

A high wind report of unknown strength from near Joplin, MO:
WINDOWS WERE REPORTED TO BE BLOWN OUT OF BUILDINGS WITH AT LEAST ONE BUILDING SUFFERING STRUCTUAL DAMANGE...ALONG WITH POWER POLES AND TREES REPORTED TO BE DOWNED. A TR (SGF)

That will prolly be upgraded to a weak nado upon survey. Structural damage and power poles down is rather uncommon with just downburst winds...
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Quoting Floodman:
Wow, I can't beleive no one picked up my mis-spelling of doc in that post...

Yeah, made the conscious thought to leave it alone...
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Wow, I can't beleive no one picked up my mis-spelling of doc in that post...
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I have no qualms about admitting to being hopped up though

( purple hippo runs from the blog, screaming in laughter...sorry, Jerry..inside joke from earlier today....)


;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I was told that you may know more about this earlier today. I have heard that there is deterioation/decay of levy's in Slidell and great concern at this time due to the amount of rain expected. Do you have any knowledge of this?


A little more...if it is related to the pending rains, well, that is usually more of an issue with river flooding, and very likely outside of Slidell.
Very few people live anywhere near the Pearl River. Some near the Bogue Chitto. Many more near the Tchefuncte and Bogue Falaya rivers near Covington.

I don't think any of them have much in the way of built levees, but I could be wrong about that.
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Quoting tropicofcancer:

Hey Flood. Had me worry as I have not seen you in a couple of days. How is your back?


Well, it's there...I know it is, cause it hurts like hell. I have no qualms about admitting to being hopped up though. My doc is sympathetic and he takes good care of this old hippie...

I haven't been in because it's hard for me to sit for longer than 20 minutes or so and I habve to keep up with work as well. It's great to be able to work from home!
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
I was told that you may know more about this earlier today. I have heard that there is deterioation/decay of levy's in Slidell and great concern at this time due to the amount of rain expected. Do you have any knowledge of this?


There isn't much of a levee system around Slidell, except for a couple of neighborhoods (private levees, at that). One I am familiar with, around the Eden Isles neighborhood, well I haven't heard anything bad about it (could be, though).

I do know that there is some discussion about the Corps' projects on the south shore affecting the surge up here, which is certainly true. I do not know, though, that their future plans for NOLA have been thoroughly considered when designing the levees and gates that the corps is planning to go after funding for to build around Slidell in the future.

That's right, the corps is planning to build some flood control near Slidell, but as of yet have almost nothing around here. St Tammany Parish has a PhD hydrologist in their engineering office that we have been discussing the possibilities with. Might be personally involved in running surge modeling for hypothetical storms with all future plans on the south shore included to be sure the smartest flood control is being designed for the northshore.

No sense in building a levee that would have held back Katrina's water if the southshore plans would raise that water by 3 feet at Slidell. Especially given that Katrina wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been for Slidell.
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I think some may disagree with you on that one, eyes...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting atmoaggie:

Would you mind sticking to the weather, please?


LOL...I always enjoy atmoaggie's comments...
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Serious Problems
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Quoting Floodman:


No, actually they were 17days apart...Frances and Jeanne, on the other hand, were only 11 days apart...I think...

Howdy, folks!

Hey Flood. Had me worry as I have not seen you in a couple of days. How is your back?
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Quoting Floodman:


No, actually they were 17days apart...Frances and Jeanne, on the other hand, were only 11 days apart...I think...

Howdy, folks!
Howdy Flood.. The fun er, I mean watching the weather has been abundant with excitment today
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting atmoaggie:

Would you mind sticking to the weather, please?
Its rainy as in a swamp builder here and when I come in from outside the weather is stuck all over me! j/k
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
372. flsky
Quoting futuremet:

Futuremet, could you supply a little commentary with this map? I respect your opinions. THanks
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
So true. I was there for IVAN


No, actually they were 17days apart...Frances and Jeanne, on the other hand, were only 11 days apart...I think...

Howdy, folks!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
This looks to get rather nasty later and tomorrow afternoon.

CAPE at Lake Charles from the 18 Z sounding (thanks for the sounding, NWS!) shows 3600+ MUCAPE, 4100 forecast CAPE, and 50 knot low level winds!


(Best viewed full size...click!)

Thankfully, shear isn't as bad as it could be so hopefully the worst of it will be limited to straight-line winds and some hail.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds 50 knots or greater:



We will prolly have something similar for the coast tomorrow centered in the "slight" area below:

I was told that you may know more about this earlier today. I have heard that there is deterioation/decay of levy's in Slidell and great concern at this time due to the amount of rain expected. Do you have any knowledge of this?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Yes ma'am. But he started it!


Not a ma'am and that was a bit of a tongue-in-cheek, pointing-out-the-irony in-a-dry-humor-way comment.
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oh lord...
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting atmoaggie:

Would you mind sticking to the weather, please?


Remember to post this to the myriad of other off-topic posters, in all fairness. How's the weather there today?

Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
It appears from the projected track that the typhoon will move almost directly over the Manila area. We can only pray for those in it's path.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Why is it considered bashing if someone points out that you constantly post off-topic? It's an observation but more importantly it's true. It's also a violation of the blog rules.
No one is bashing you. Dinner with a sorority? Why in the heck would you be getting back on here tonight? CapeFlorida, take it away...

Would you mind sticking to the weather, please?
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This looks to get rather nasty later and tomorrow afternoon.

CAPE at Lake Charles from the 18 Z sounding (thanks for the sounding, NWS!) shows 3600+ MUCAPE, 4100 forecast CAPE, and 50 knot low level winds!


(Best viewed full size...click!)


Thankfully, shear isn't as bad as it could be so hopefully the worst of it will be limited to straight-line winds and some hail.

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds 50 knots or greater:



We will prolly have something similar for the coast tomorrow centered in the "slight" area below:

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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Why is it considered bashing if someone points out that you constantly post off-topic? It's an observation but more importantly it's true. It's also a violation of the blog rules.
No one is bashing you. Dinner with a sorority? Why in the heck would you be getting back on here tonight? CapeFlorida, take it away...

LOL! I think you said it all!
I really like dude. I see him as I see my own son who is now a senior at a major university. I was just trying to let him know that life is wonderful and needs to be lived for the momment.
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Quoting tornadodude:
well guys im off to dinner with a sorority, have a good evening, ill be back on later and hopefully wont be bashed then :p

Dude... don't bother hopping back on later tonight, things will be fine on here.

After having dinner with a sorority, just remember to have fun, enjoy yourself, and um... have fun. ;)
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


No, the remembrance I am referring to is of the timeline as I read it in various hurricane history books and periodicals.
I couldn't resist and with so many on here refering to themselves as oldtimers, well you get the jest of it. Seriously though that is remarkable and not only does a comunity get wiped out but often geography changes. Barrier Islands move, new rivers and bays can get started etc.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I have to ask.....You remember from being there??????


No, the remembrance I am referring to is of the timeline as I read it in various hurricane history books and periodicals.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
Quoting hurricanejunky:


That would be HORRIBLE. If you go back thru hurricane history, Pensacola was bombarded repeatedly with hurricanes in the early 1900's. A couple times there were 2 cat 2's within a week or two period if I remember correctly. It's almost surprising Pensacola exists today.
I have to ask.....You remember from being there??????
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Can you imagine... 4 cyclones in roughly 4 weeks. That would be like the US taking 4 hurricanes at cat 2 and greater in that same time period and having all of them hit witin a 200/300 mile stretch of coast. I can not imagine the devastation!


That would be HORRIBLE. If you go back thru hurricane history, Pensacola was bombarded repeatedly with hurricanes in the early 1900's. A couple times there were 2 cat 2's within a week or two period if I remember correctly. It's almost surprising Pensacola exists today.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
Quoting StormChaser81:


Welcome to 2004 living in Florida, i didnt think we where every going to get a break. charley and frances im pretty sure were only two weeks apart.
So true. I was there for IVAN
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting tornadodude:
well guys im off to dinner with a sorority, have a good evening, ill be back on later and hopefully wont be bashed then :p


Why is it considered bashing if someone points out that you constantly post off-topic? It's an observation but more importantly it's true. It's also a violation of the blog rules.
No one is bashing you. Dinner with a sorority? Why in the heck would you be getting back on here tonight? CapeFlorida, take it away...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Can you imagine... 4 cyclones in roughly 4 weeks. That would be like the US taking 4 hurricanes at cat 2 and greater in that same time period and having all of them hit witin a 200/300 mile stretch of coast. I can not imagine the devastation!


Welcome to 2004 living in Florida, i didnt think we where every going to get a break. charley and frances im pretty sure were only two weeks apart.
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well guys im off to dinner with a sorority, have a good evening, ill be back on later and hopefully wont be bashed then :p
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8328
Quoting StormChaser81:


Man this thing exploded with convection in the past couple of hours. Looks like Phils might have a Cat 3 on there hands.
Can you imagine... 4 cyclones in roughly 4 weeks. That would be like the US taking 4 hurricanes at cat 2 and greater in that same time period and having all of them hit witin a 200/300 mile stretch of coast. I can not imagine the devastation!
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633


Man this thing exploded with convection in the past couple of hours. Looks like Phils might have a Cat 3 on there hands.
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Quoting capeflorida:
Hey eyes.... I am a woman. Just giving the young man some friendly advise.
Well gosh dern... In your note you said "like us older guys". Somehow and maybe its my age but I just assuned guy as in male persuasion person...j/k
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Regrets....what regrets.....I have no regrets (had to say this guys wife is home....)
Hey eyes.... I am a woman. Just giving the young man some friendly advise.
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woohoo...the front is in San Antonio!


San Antonio
76.5 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 46%
Dew Point: 54 °F
Wind: 11.0 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: 21.9 mph
Pressure: 29.56 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 78 °F
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting capeflorida:

Chill out dude. I am giving you the best advise you ever had. You are a young good looking guy attending an elite university without one worry(except maybe for that paper that is due in 2 days). One day, when you get older, you will look back at this time and you will realise that this were the majic years of your life and I don't want you to have any regrets like most oo us older guys in here. This is your time ENJOY it now!!!!
Regrets....what regrets.....I have no regrets (had to say this guys wife is home....)(due to the weather)
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting Skyepony:


It's all those rain deficits ya'll keep posting & the look of the way the current El Nino is going that is making me begin to think we maybe in for a bad fire season next year.


Yeah, I think we're in for an historic fire season! My only hope is the wetter El Nino winter will help. We haven't gotten into the meat of that yet so hopefully once the strong winter fronts starting rolling through they'll bring some training bands of rain with them.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2898

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.