Philippines brace for Typhoon Mirinae; big snowstorm wallops Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

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Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8+ inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Major snowstorm wallops Colorado
The season's first major snowstorm is walloping Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska and South Dakota today. In the mountain regions just west of Denver, up to 38 inches of snow has fallen, with another 4 - 12 inches possible today. It was the biggest October snowstorm in the Denver region since 1997.

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Tonight
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live tonight (Thursday) at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Jeff Masters

Top Down 4-wheelin (Roaddog1)
We've had about 24" of snow out of this storm so far in Deer Creek Canyon sw of Littleton.
Top Down 4-wheelin
Bye, bye birdies (focusonthis)
They will be heading South for sure after this snowfall.
Bye, bye birdies

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Mirinae exploded a very dangerous storm
Link
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What's the severe weather potential for the Florida Panhandle over the next couple of days?
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Live Shreveport T.V. Coverage
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Looks like some of the Houston metro may have some flooding problems due to that quasi-stationary moisture axis...



In addition to Flash Flooding, several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings up too.

WFO HGX
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
Advisories are coming out so fast i can't stay up with them.....HOLLY CRAP! I knew this was going to happen as i warned of this yesterday.

TORNADO WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 649 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009
TORNADO WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 648 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009
TORNADO WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 648 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 646 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009
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The storm will move just East of Shreveport...This is a very bad storm.....no doubt a tornado is in that storm....
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Just as i suspected

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 641 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WAKE VILLAGE...TEXARKANA... NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS... WEST CENTRAL MILLER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES WEST OF QUEEN CITY...OR 12 MILES WEST OF ATLANTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
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Quoting xcool:
thank tamp for post


:)....where do you live at
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The Storm heading toward Shreveport looks really really bad....Take cover now if you live in that area.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 635 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTHEASTERN OUACHITA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 634 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HARRELL FIELD AIRPORT...OR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VELIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... AMY... HOLLY SPRINGS...
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 635 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MCNEIL... SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... * UNTIL 700 PM CDT * AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MCNEIL... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO EBENEZER...COLLEGE HILL AND MEDLOCK.
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431. xcool
thank tamp for post
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 628 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RED CHUTE...BOSSIER CITY... CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SHREVEPORT... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 627 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES SOUTH OF GREENWOOD...OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BLANCHARD...EASTWOOD AND BENTON...
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429. xcool
new tornado warnings
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Use Severe Weather Warning Link
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427. xcool
severe storms head this way !!!
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NW of El Dorado appears to be another heading toward Pine Bluff
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This is some bad stuff. I warned of this yesterday in this exact area.
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424. xcool
very bad storm
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423. xcool



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There appears to be a vortex near NorthEast of Little Rock now
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..yvw
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
ty Pat...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Barometer Bob Show Storm Chat
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
...ahem...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
416. xcool
AT 547 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES SOUTH OF
OIL CITY...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHREVEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 55 MPH.
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SPC Storm Reports
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127566
Is there suppose to be favorable conditions in the Western Carribbean next week?
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Sitting out here in singapore right now keeping a close eye on 23W, definatly as mentioned above going to really cuase some damage in the PI, they are still recovering from the last few typhoons, 22W was a scare and a near miss and sadly this one had to form and come at them, any how its going to be a busy week with this storm. Hope people back in the states pay attention cuase its going to be devastating blow.
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411. xcool


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410. xcool
AwakeInMaryland .yeah.
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409. xcool
Lots of damage being reported in Haughton, LA....east of Shreveport
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Quoting xcool:
Tornado Downtown Shreveport

Well, dang, thanks x-cool.
That's what I'm talking about and why I keep coming here even when some bloggers go nutso.
Immediate info!

You're not in Shreveport, right? New Orleans?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
407. xcool
Tornado Downtown Shreveport
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A little note before Presslord's big night on the Barometer Bob show at 8 pm; link is on Doc Masters' blog today.

An emergency preparedness kit needs to include food and water for each member of the family for three days, a battery-powered or hand-crank radio, flashlight, spare batteries, first aid kit, non-electric can opener, local maps, moist towelettes, toilet paper, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation.

Other items to consider include sleeping bags or blankets, paper towels, books, puzzles and games for children and pet food for family pets. It’s helpful to have cash in case banks are closed and ATMs are not operating.

The emergency supplies can be stored in an easy-to-carry plastic storage container or duffel bag, making them easy to grab and go when an emergency forces people to leave their home.




Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
405. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "SANTI" continues to move closer to Aurora-Quezon area.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
===============================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Santi (Mirinae) located at 15.6ºN 127.2ºE or 580 km east northeast of Infanta, Quezon has 10 minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (80 kts) with gustiness up to 185 km/h (100 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Polillo Islands

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Aurora
2.Quirino
3.Nueva Ecija
4.Bulacan
5.Tarlac
6.Zambales
7.Pampanga
8.Bataan
9.Rizal
10.Cavite
11.Laguna
12.Batangas
13.Lubang Is.
14.Quezon
15.Camarines Norte
16.Camarines Sur
17.Catanduanes
18.Metro Manila

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Isabela
2.Ifugao
3.Nueva Vizcaya
4.Benguet
5.La Union
6.Pangasinan
7.Albay
8.Burias Is.
9.Sorsogon
10.Marinduque
11.Oriental Mindoro
12.Occidental Mindoro
13.Calamian Group

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #3 and #2 are advised to be on alert against storm surges and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today
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404. xcool
go the
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403. xcool
http://www.ktbs.com/pages/live-coverage-weather/
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Quoting NRAamy:
Arguably the best blues/rock singer of the era.

Joe Cocker....



I stand corrected meant to say female, although I lean towards JJ, especially as part of Bog Brother and the Holding Company.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Floodman:


I appreciate your forebearance...

Well, folks, I have to run...time to get sedated for my MRI

There are only two things I'm truly phobic about: heights and enclosed spaces. My son tiold me the other day that I was lucky they didn't have MRI machines on the roof

I'll be back later, likely, but I can't speak to how coherent I'll be...LOL

Best of luck, Flood. Hope it all turns out well soonest.
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Flood, I think my hubby wants what you're having:

My dic is sympathetic and he takes good care of this old hippie...

Atmo: that "guy" cracked me up who called you "ma'am."
Dontcha' just know he read "Maggie" instead of "Aggie." lol.

I stopped in a little earlier to check on tornados, flooding. Instead I see a myriad of off-topic posts bashing buds. I dropped out of after-school conversations here awhile ago. But today I see it's "older" guys bashing youngsters and women in the guise of advice.

There's other, much better, ways to remind people they're off-topic or outta' line.

Here's a couple, paraphrasing fellow bloggers:

A. "oh lord, this again?"
B. "lol, has the blog come to this?"
C. "Humor in Comments" on Orca's blog

OR, the way I remind myself:

D. Looks like things are really getting busy in the ______________ (tropics, WPac, GOM, whatever's appropriate)...guess non-experts like me should come back later when things aren't so busy.

Okay, before you blast me, I'm leaving for now, I promise. No afternoons for me...but the behavior today hurt to see.

Amended note:Okay, one of the offenders was a woman, my mistake, referred to herself as "guy." Apologies.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Arguably the best blues/rock singer of the era.

Joe Cocker....

Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting NRAamy:
bwaaaahahahah what are the odds of the same lingo (he must have been in lurk mode)

either that or Jerry and I are linked...maybe he's my long lost twin????


:)


Would explain a lot.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting Floodman:


I'll be there, but press, I can't promise how much I'll remember; I'm going to have my

A man after my own heart...my wife can;t stand Janis, but something about that woman's voice just got me...


Arguably the best blues/rock singer of the era.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
take care, Jerry!!!!!!!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.