Philippines brace for Typhoon Mirinae; big snowstorm wallops Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

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Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8+ inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Major snowstorm wallops Colorado
The season's first major snowstorm is walloping Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska and South Dakota today. In the mountain regions just west of Denver, up to 38 inches of snow has fallen, with another 4 - 12 inches possible today. It was the biggest October snowstorm in the Denver region since 1997.

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Tonight
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live tonight (Thursday) at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Jeff Masters

Top Down 4-wheelin (Roaddog1)
We've had about 24" of snow out of this storm so far in Deer Creek Canyon sw of Littleton.
Top Down 4-wheelin
Bye, bye birdies (focusonthis)
They will be heading South for sure after this snowfall.
Bye, bye birdies

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Yeah, I have been using the USGS stuff for a long time. I find it very useful, especially since they have more sites than NOAA.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11568
493. xcool



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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Houston Creeks and Bayous are showing sharp rises and getting very near flood stage.


I see you found the nice USGS stuff.

Another good site here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/

I see the trinity river was already at flood stage before the rains...



If this one gets to 59.5, houses start flooding. Not currently forecast and hopefully not in the cards...

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NASA assessing parachutes and dented Ares 1-X booster

BY WILLIAM HARWOOD
STORY WRITTEN FOR CBS NEWS "SPACE PLACE" & USED WITH PERMISSION
Posted: October 29, 2009;
Updated @ 8:15 p.m. with more details


One of the three 150-foot-wide parachutes designed to gently lower NASA's Ares 1-X first stage booster to the Atlantic Ocean after a dramatic six-minute test flight Wednesday deflated after deployment, officials said Thursday, resulting in a harder splashdown than expected
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Quoting Manhattancane:


For maybe a weak one, since tornados concentrate to the low end; or an indirect hit. Thingser bilt tuffer inose days.. 30 stories and withstood 1000 years of earthquakes and typhoons and made of wood.


The nice thing about wood is that it moves. And the type of wood used will come into play. This is why you will see old buildings leaning so far they look about to fall, yet are still being used. This can help a building survive an earthquake and typhoon. Tornado's, because of their rapid change of wind, tend to create more stress on buildings than straight line winds. (Don't remember where I read this and it was many years ago, so the theory behind this may no longer be the same.)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting PcolaDan:


I'm still looking for your Social Bookmark Button.

Someone mentioned the joinery (yes the right terminology) used for the steeple. For a tornado, not much of anything is going to hold it together, especially if it's wood. Nails would be weakest, then straps screwing the sections together. Mortise and tenon, if possible would be stronger, since you effectively make it all one piece. But you won't see this in construction, too difficult and time consuming.


For maybe a weak one, since tornados concentrate to the low end; or an indirect hit. Thingser bilt tuffer inose days.. 30 stories and withstood 1000 years of earthquakes and typhoons and made of wood.
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NEXRAD Radar
Shreveport, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Barometer Bob Show was a ton of fun! Thanks to everyone who listened...
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
Hi Patrap, First of all I just saw the weather report in Shreveport, amazing images. Second I posted this yesterday and was wondering if you had ever heard the story:

Pere Dagobert was eventually replaced in the church by the first Spanish priest Father Antonio DeSadilla, referred to by the French as Pere Antion. Pere Dagobert continued out his life in New Orleans and was eventually buried under the altar in the Cathedral. But the impression of Pere Dagobert however intense, was not left in the Place D%u2019 Arms,now Jackson Square. Nor was it left in the Cathedral. For it is not the ghost of Pere Dagobert that haunts this city. His impression was left in the rain. On rainy summer nights, his haunting voice can still be heard echoing throughout the alleys. Still singing the Kyrie. The closer to dawn the louder the singing. His beautiful tenor voice still singing the funeral mass, down the alley, and throughout Orleans Avenue.



One thing about the French Quarter,,..it aint Quiet,nor is it ever...dull.

But from experience,screams or singing are a good thing,or a Bad thing,..it just depends on time of day usually.
Or year.
Or Convention..or Holiday.
Or Visiting teams Hotel as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Typhoon Mirinae
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Quoting Chicklit:
Presslord, is that a ferret in your thong?!
no, can't be.
anyway, congrats on your performance!
And best of luck with the upcoming walks.


; )
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
Presslord, is that a ferret in your thong?!
no, can't be.
anyway, congrats on your Barometer Bob interview!
And best of luck with the upcoming walks.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

AddThis Social Bookmark Button


I'm still looking for your Social Bookmark Button.

Someone mentioned the joinery (yes the right terminology) used for the steeple. For a tornado, not much of anything is going to hold it together, especially if it's wood. Nails would be weakest, then straps screwing the sections together. Mortise and tenon, if possible would be stronger, since you effectively make it all one piece. But you won't see this in construction, too difficult and time consuming.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010

If this is a cold front, I hope it makes it to Florida.
Link
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Houston Creeks and Bayous are showing sharp rises and getting very near flood stage.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11568
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

LMAO; thank you for sharing that information.
Did I sound uppity? Didn' mean to.
Laughter is great tension soother...among other things. How IS Ms. Zellweiger?

Please


I dunno...I'm standing at her door...but she won't answer the bell...cops just got here though...will keep ya posted...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
Quoting presslord:
let's just give each other info.


OK....well....I'm wearin' a thong...

LMAO; thank you for sharing that information.
Did I sound uppity? Didn' mean to.
Laughter is great tension soother...among other things. How IS Ms. Zellweiger?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Bossier City roads flooded

A majority of the roads in Bossier City have flooded, according to city spokesman Mark Natale.

More than a dozen vehicles have stalled in high water in Bossier City, stated a news release. Most of the incidents occurred on Airline Drive south of Interstate 20 and on Benton Road north of I-20.

Bossier City Police are currently working more than a dozen incidents of vehicles stalled in high water. Most are on Airline Drive south of I-20 and on Benton Road north on I-20.

Bossier City authorities have advised people not to drive in the city tonight because most major roadways are flooded.

Shed Road, Beckett Street, Airline Drive at Douglas, all roads off of Benton Road and Airline Drive that enter the Old Greenacres neighborhood are all closed.

Chief Mike Halphen has every available officer as well as several reserve police officers on the streets tonight.

Thousands without power in Caddo and Bossier

SWEPCO is reporting some 17, 923 customers in Bossier Parish and 4,031 in Caddo Parish without power, according to informtion posted on its Web site.

Check back at www.shreveporttimes.com for updates as more information becomes available.

Sandbags no longer available

Sandbags are no longer available to Bossier City and Bossier Parish residents.

The heavy rains and inclement weather have forced authorities to reallocate manpower to respond directly to the storms, instead of manning the three locations where sandbags were formerly available, according to a Bossier City spokesman Mark Natale.

Street flooding anticipated tonight in parts of Bossier City

Bossier City emergency response personnel are advising residents in northeast Bossier City in the vicinity of Red Chute Bayou and Flat River to expect flooding overnight that will likely make some streets impassable. These areas include the Stonebridge, Victoria Point, Brookhaven and Carriage Oaks subdivisions.

The streets that are anticipated to flood include those same streets that flooded in the spring of 2001. This street flooding is expected to occur after many residents go to bed for the evening so the Bossier City wants to give this advisory before that time.

Residents are urged not to drive in flooded roadways.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Hi Patrap, First of all I just saw the weather report in Shreveport, amazing images. Second I posted this yesterday and was wondering if you had ever heard the story:

Pere Dagobert was eventually replaced in the church by the first Spanish priest Father Antonio DeSadilla, referred to by the French as Pere Antion. Pere Dagobert continued out his life in New Orleans and was eventually buried under the altar in the Cathedral. But the impression of Pere Dagobert however intense, was not left in the Place D’ Arms,now Jackson Square. Nor was it left in the Cathedral. For it is not the ghost of Pere Dagobert that haunts this city. His impression was left in the rain. On rainy summer nights, his haunting voice can still be heard echoing throughout the alleys. Still singing the Kyrie. The closer to dawn the louder the singing. His beautiful tenor voice still singing the funeral mass, down the alley, and throughout Orleans Avenue.

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Quoting Manhattancane:


Of course he's not okay, he broke many bones.

Our friend is just expressing concern, same as saying hope he will be okay.

It's a high-anxiety time, let's just give each other info.

EAST TEXAS - A trained storm spotter reports Hwy 59 between Timpson and Tenaha is closed due to high water. Traffic was diverted to Hwy 87, but that road has now been closed.

Dollar General flooded on Hwy 69.

Trailor Park on Tulane Dr. in Angelina County in Lufkin is without power.

Reports of Flash Flooding and road closures on Knight Avenue and Whipperwill Drive in Angelina county due to high water.

Nacogdoches County Sheriff's Office reports the following road and bridge closures due to high water and flooding: CR 392 at Blackjack----CR 425 (Brownsferry Rd.)----FM 2259-----FM138-----FM2112-----Hwy 21 East at address 9988.

Share your weather video or weather photos at KTRE.com, just post them to See It Snap It Send It. Do not put yourself in harm's way.

For updates on this story, tune in to the East Texas News at 5, 6, and 10, and check out the East Texas News page at ktre.com.
AddThis Social Bookmark Button
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The weather is so unpredictable. Hope he is okay.


Of course he's not okay, he broke many bones.
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Quoting Patrap:
From JFlorida's Blog



Tornado in Downtown Shreveport causes Church Steeple to Fall on Car

The 57-year-old Shreveporter suffered numerous broken bones but overall is "one very lucky guy," Shreveport police spokesman Sgt. Jim Taliaferro said. The man's name has not been released pending notification of immediate family members.

The remnants of the steeple, which was erected in late 2000 after an Easter tornado damaged its predecessor, still blocked Common Street as darkness fell. Drivers should avoid the intersection of Common and Texas streets and should be wary venturing downtown.

Wind broke glass in some buildings along Texas Street and shattered the glass globes of some streetlights.

Shreveport Police Chief Henry Whitehorn said damage appears to be widespread, with power lines down in several parts of the city.


Wow, that is something. I wonder if using joinery (don't know if that's the proper term) like a pagoda would make steeples more resilient?
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The rain has been sitting over NW Houston for almost 3 hours now!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11568
464. xcool
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463. xcool
TampaSpin n.o
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Its coming down pretty good in Houston. I think the commute in the morning is going to be interesting.....
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Quoting Patrap:
From JFlorida's Blog



The 57-year-old Shreveporter suffered numerous broken bones but overall is "one very lucky guy," Shreveport police spokesman Sgt. Jim Taliaferro said. The man's name has not been released pending notification of immediate family members.

The remnants of the steeple, which was erected in late 2000 after an Easter tornado damaged its predecessor, still blocked Common Street as darkness fell. Drivers should avoid the intersection of Common and Texas streets and should be wary venturing downtown.

Wind broke glass in some buildings along Texas Street and shattered the glass globes of some streetlights.

Shreveport Police Chief Henry Whitehorn said damage appears to be widespread, with power lines down in several parts of the city.
The weather is so unpredictable. Hope he is okay.
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From JFlorida's Blog



Tornado in Downtown Shreveport causes Church Steeple to Fall on Car

The 57-year-old Shreveporter suffered numerous broken bones but overall is "one very lucky guy," Shreveport police spokesman Sgt. Jim Taliaferro said. The man's name has not been released pending notification of immediate family members.

The remnants of the steeple, which was erected in late 2000 after an Easter tornado damaged its predecessor, still blocked Common Street as darkness fell. Drivers should avoid the intersection of Common and Texas streets and should be wary venturing downtown.

Wind broke glass in some buildings along Texas Street and shattered the glass globes of some streetlights.

Shreveport Police Chief Henry Whitehorn said damage appears to be widespread, with power lines down in several parts of the city.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Quoting presslord:
Could you tell I'm wearin' a thong?
Yes, your voice sounded a little high pitched. LOL
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Was fine from this side.

Lotsa info,..and you didnt throw up neither..
LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
...so Pat...or anyone...How'd that come across?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
Quoting atmoaggie:
712 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 707 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOOKS AIRPORT...OR NEAR
TOMBALL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO SPLASHTOWN...THE WOODLANDS...SPRING...SHENANDOAH...
PORTER HEIGHTS...OAK RIDGE NORTH AND CONROE.




Yup thats right in my wheelhouse
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look at this website above for sure they will issue another warning the thing has a tiny vortex on velocity and purple on radar again and it is right about to make it into my area
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http://houston.justweather.com/#lightbox=0
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712 PM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 707 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HOOKS AIRPORT...OR NEAR
TOMBALL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO SPLASHTOWN...THE WOODLANDS...SPRING...SHENANDOAH...
PORTER HEIGHTS...OAK RIDGE NORTH AND CONROE.

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JustWeather.comCURRENT RADAR
Houston
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im in houston and a tornado warning just cancelled, meanwhile there are 70mph winds, nickel size to quarter size hail and still reports pouring in about a vortex and funnel clouds... it is bad here the line is about to go over the metro area... expect 4-5 inches of rain and possibly tornado and hail.
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Listening to KTBS Ch 3 in Shreveport, LA they have had 4 inches of rain in 1 HR, flooding everywhere and a Tornado Warning in effect right now! NWS declared a "Flood Emergency" for the city of Shreveport...
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785


Tornado reports NW LA, SW AR:
STEEPLE ON CHURCH IN DOWNTOWN SHREVEPORT TORN OFF AND ONTO A CAR (SHV)

DEALER ON FIRE OFF I-220 (SHV)

POWERLINES DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF WEMPLE ROAD AND OLD BROWNLEE ROAD. OVERTURNED TRAILER NEAR OLD BROWNLEE ROAD (SHV)

TREES DOWNED IN SE PART OF CITY NEAR COUNTY ROAD 11 (SHV)

Lots of high wind reports including trees down, power lines, cars blown off highways, etc.

http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html
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Quoting Patrap:


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
644 PM CDT Thursday Oct 29 2009
I am having trouble hearing the show and the chat room looks like it kicked me out. Don't know what's going on
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Quoting 850Realtor:
What's the severe weather potential for the Florida Panhandle over the next couple of days?


Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
644 PM CDT Thursday Oct 29 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
This better not be the cold front pushing through the houston area already i was promised some good thunderstorms tonight at around midnight i better still get them!
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Mirinae exploded a very dangerous storm
Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.