Philippines brace for Typhoon Mirinae; big snowstorm wallops Colorado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

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Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.


Figure 1. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Mirinae for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday October 30, 2009. Mirinae is expected to dump 8+ inches of rain along a narrow swath near its core. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, a non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop in the middle-Atlantic on Monday, and may spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a nice discussion of the meteorology of this storm, which may bring high winds to Bermuda next week. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm development over the next seven days. Several models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Major snowstorm wallops Colorado
The season's first major snowstorm is walloping Colorado, Wyoming, and western Nebraska and South Dakota today. In the mountain regions just west of Denver, up to 38 inches of snow has fallen, with another 4 - 12 inches possible today. It was the biggest October snowstorm in the Denver region since 1997.

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Tonight
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live tonight (Thursday) at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Jeff Masters

Top Down 4-wheelin (Roaddog1)
We've had about 24" of snow out of this storm so far in Deer Creek Canyon sw of Littleton.
Top Down 4-wheelin
Bye, bye birdies (focusonthis)
They will be heading South for sure after this snowfall.
Bye, bye birdies

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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Grothar = Switzerland
Amy: mobilizing Swiss invasion
Morning, T-Dude. Finish your paper? That Tampa and I had fun interrupting...


haha yeah I did, who knew I could come up with 1,000 words about various construction projects at Purdue :)
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Morning all! I put together a blog on the Strong Storm that will affect the SE on Fr/Sa. I have a few links, one to the NWS Denver, CO with the latest snowfall reports, the other for "Preliminary Storm reports" throughout the US. If anyone would like to take a look, link below:
Link
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey, TD. Just found out some useful information of the Pacific Oceanographic studies. They just discoverd that the Mariana Trench is now completely below sea level!! Can you imagine. Look at the last images of Mininae and see what you think I'll post the latest graphic.


haha alright, will do, I'm tempted to post a picture from last night's discussion.


Poll:
A: Post it
B: Dont post it
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Grothar = Switzerland
Amy: mobilizing Swiss invasion
Morning, T-Dude. Finish your paper? That Tampa and I had fun interrupting...
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Been there. The imagination was not good enough to realize the seriouusness of the party on Bouurbon St. BTW. I heard something (not much) about the decay/erosion of levy system in Slidell. Do you know anything about this?


Nope..Slidell is on the N Shore,..atmoaggie may though.
Not many Levees on the N Shore that Im aware of.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
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Quoting Grothar:


Would never do that to you NRAmy. It is just that I give a lot of lectures and people take things out of context sometimes. I always defend both sides. There is a great deal of safety in neutrality. lol I always check everything out before I quote what someone supposedly said.


Grothar! Could you get on chat, private matter ;)?
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Quoting Patrap:


Shhhh,..thats a secret ,..LOL
Been there. The imagination was not good enough to realize the seriouusness of the party on Bouurbon St. BTW. I heard something (not much) about the decay/erosion of levy system in Slidell. Do you know anything about this?
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Quoting tornadodude:
hey all


Hey, TD. Just found out some useful information of the Pacific Oceanographic studies. They just discoverd that the Mariana Trench is now completely below sea level!! Can you imagine. Look at the last images of Mininae and see what you think I'll post the latest graphic.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Wife says i have weed the flowers and edge things.....are she is not going to let me watch Press tonite.....don't know which will be worse......LOL


LOL tough choice there (;
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Wife says i have to weed the flowers and edge things.....or she is not going to let me watch Press tonite.....don't know which will be worse..See Ya all later....LOL
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Grothar...I know, I know..and usually I would agree with your cautious and fair approach...

but Al Gore chaps my hide...and I got a lotta hide to chap..so, you can see my position...

;)
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Quoting NRAamy:
you know you love me, Dak....

;)


:-) :-)

Yep... Just looking out for you.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Grothar...thanks for raining on my parade....

;)


Would never do that to you NRAmy. It is just that I give a lot of lectures and people take things out of context sometimes. I always defend both sides. There is a great deal of safety in neutrality. lol I always check everything out before I quote what someone supposedly said.
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hey all
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Quoting presslord:
Pat...Might there also be some New Orleans style partying involved?


Shhhh,..thats a secret ,..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
you know you love me, Dak....

;)
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Quoting NRAamy:
Dak...meds? no...not taking any meds....tossed them all out....

HAHAHAHA!!!!!!!


That explains it.

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Pat...Might there also be some New Orleans style partying involved?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
What a vigours dip in the Jet.....its suppose to lift to the North.....not doing so yet.

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Grothar...thanks for raining on my parade....

;)
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Quoting presslord:



...oh....that would be fun...


Barometer Bob's popularity would skyrocket after that broadcast...

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Dak...meds? no...not taking any meds....tossed them all out....

HAHAHAHA!!!!!!!
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Paul Timmons(AKA presslord) and myself will be attending the US -Cuban Hurricane Conference here on the 23rd of November.

If anyone is interested in attending here with us,contact me via-wu mail as I have secured a few more invites thru our group.



The Center for International Policy Takes Pleasure in Inviting You to

A Conference on U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Defending Against Hurricanes

To be held November 23, 2009, in New Orleans at Mardi Gras World

1380 Port of New Orleans Place



2 p.m. – Introduction by Wayne S. Smith of the Center for International Policy



2:15 – 2:45 p.m. – Vital U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in Tracking Hurricanes and Warning of their Approach. Jose Rubiera, of the Cuban Meteorological Center (invited) and Lixion Avila of the U.S. Hurricane Center in Miami. Chaired by Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile



2:45 – 4:00 p.m. - U.S.-Cuban Cooperation in the Face of Hurricanes. Dagoberto Rodriguez Barrera, Cuban Vice Minister of Foreign Relations (invited); Lt.General (Ret) Russel Honore, Former Commander of Joint Task Force Katrina; Lt. Col (Ret) Jerry Sneed, Director of Emergency Preparedness of Orleans Parish; Ivor van Heerden, Founder of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center; Robert Turner, Director of the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority. Chaired by Wayne Smith, Center for International Policy.



4:00 – 4:30 p.m. – The Growing Focus on Disaster Medicine and Disaster Management in Both the U.S. and Cuba. Dr. Guillermo Mesa Ridel, Director, Latin American Center for Disaster Medicine (invited); Dr. Alex Isakov, Founding Director of the Emory University Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response; Lt. Gen Russel Honore, Board Member, Tulane Disaster Management Leadership Academy; Chaired by Randy Poindexter, Executive Director of International Cuba Society



4:30 – 5:00 p.m. – President Obama’s Prerogative, Despite the Embargo, to Authorize U.S. Companies to Sell Cuba Reconstruction Materials and Equipment. Robert L. Muse, Attorney, Muse and Associates



5:00 – 6:00 p.m. – Open Discussion. Participants from the various delegations to Cuba, and other interested parties, are invited to comment and express opinions as to new initiatives and directions and how we could better organize to advance our objectives



6:00 – 7:30 p.m. - Reception with cash bar in the Grand Oaks Mansion



Admission is free, but seating is limited.



The Center for International Policy wishes to express its appreciation to

Atlantic Philanthropies for the support which made this conference possible.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Hey fellow bloggers. I personally don't care that much for Al Gore, but fair is fair. Here is an excerpt from the whole article. If you want the interview with Wolf Blitzer is on Youtube. I shall not post it but thought you might find this of a little interest.....

Gore never claimed that he "invented" the Internet, which implies that he engineered the technology. The invention occurred in the seventies and allowed scientists in the Defense Department to communicate with each other. In a March 1999 interview with Wolf Blitzer, Gore said, "During my service in the United States Congress, I took the initiative in creating the Internet."
Taken in context, the sentence, despite some initial ambiguity, means that as a congressman Gore promoted the system we enjoy today, not that he could patent the science, though that's how the quotation has been manipulated. Hence the disingenuous substitution of "inventing" for the actual language.
…..featuring a sneer at the fragment from the Internet claim, again implying that Gore had nothing to do with the Internet's creation. At least they got the words right; it would be dangerous to doctor the tape.
But the real question is what, if anything, did Gore actually do to create the modern Internet? According to Vincent Cerf, a senior vice president with MCI Worldcom who's been called the Father of the Internet, "The Internet would not be where it is in the United States without the strong support given to it and related research areas by the Vice President in his current role and in his earlier role as Senator."
The inventor of the Mosaic Browser, Marc Andreesen, credits Gore with making his work possible. He received a federal grant through Gore's High Performance Computing Act. The University of Pennsylvania's Dave Ferber says that without Gore the Internet "would not be where it is today."
Joseph E. Traub, a computer science professor at Columbia University, claims that Gore "was perhaps the first political leader to grasp the importance of networking the country. Could we perhaps see an end to cheap shots from politicians and pundits about inventing the Internet?"
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Quoting Dakster:
Press- I wonder if your favorite blogger here will call in to the show tonight...




...oh....that would be fun...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
From today's Sit. Report. Question, will front "hugging" coast only produce additional precip? How about waterspouts, anything more? Tampa? Apologize if someone has already addressed this.
South:
The southern portion of the frontal system discussed above will produce heavy precipitation from central Texas to Georgia. The lower Mississippi Valley may receive more than three inches of precipitation in the next 24 hours and flooding is expected. Thunderstorms in the lower Mississippi Valley have the potential to become severe, producing large hail, gusty winds and even tornadoes. The front will move slowly over the Gulf Coast for the next few days and additional precipitation is forecast.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
NRAamy - Are you off your meds again?
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Quoting Dakster:
Press- I wonder if your favorite blogger here will call in to the show tonight...

Help me get back into my chair.....Can't stop LMAO
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Press- I wonder if your favorite blogger here will call in to the show tonight...

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more coverage on the backside???

Press..dude...we gotta talk...
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Quoting NRAamy:
Is it possible that these were aquired from a starbucks in Charleston?

yeah, and weren't they signed by Nicole Kidman and Rene Zellweiger...while Press was WEARING the items?


YES, i did hear he had them on backwards also. He felt more inclinded to put more coverage on the backside....Go Figure!
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
here it is....


How did you get my picture????? The nuns said no one would ever see that!
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Is it possible that these were aquired from a starbucks in Charleston?

yeah, and weren't they signed by Nicole Kidman and Rene Zellweiger...while Press was WEARING the items?
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Quoting Grothar:


I am a decendant of Vikings. Norwegian, German, Italian and a few others mixed in there. Part Swedish, but we don't mention that too much. lol

Hi, big guy; sounds like Press doesn't have nuthin' on you, lol. Thnx. for the shout-out yesterday (stayed up late reading posts, had to have my fix.)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
here it is....
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Quoting presslord:


I plan to wear a thong and a wife beater during the show...just for you Flood...
Is it possible that these were aquired from a starbucks in Charleston? (Hey, I'm no marketing genious but a little story here could go along way)
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
47. i won't hazard a guess as to which one will be more odiferous!

(probably shouldn't have gone there...sorry!)

LOL


You should have got those facts before you placed that $1000 opening bid.......LOL
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Quoting Floodman:


The Philipines are in for another nasty blow...


FLOOD! Where is your dunce cap?
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Part Swedish, but we don't mention that too much. lol

hey, atleast you're not part French...THAT I wouldn't mention...ever!!!!

;)
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Quoting NRAamy:
'sup Grothar...

by the way, what does "Grothar" stand for? You sound like a Viking....


:)


I am a decendant of Vikings. Norwegian, German, Italian and a few others mixed in there. Part Swedish, but we don't mention that too much. lol
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Mega-Star Explosion Most Distant Object Ever Seen

AFP article, currently reprinted on yahoo home page.
Sorry, I cannot make link work today; it keeps taking me back to Wunderland. This'll have to do:
Wed Oct 28, 7:32 pm ET

PARIS (AFP) %u2013 It took 13 billion years to reach Earth, but astronomers have seen the light of an exploding mega-star that is the most distant object ever detected, two studies published Thursday reported.

The stunning gamma-ray burst (GRB) was observed by two teams of researchers in April, and opens a window onto a poorly known period when the Universe was in its infancy.

GRBs are the most violent explosions known to exist, and can be 10 million times more luminous than the brightest of galaxies.

They accompany the catastrophic death of a massive star, and are probably triggered by the collapse of the star's centre into a black hole.

Dubbed GRB 090423, the new discovery was first spotted by the NASA satellite Swift.

Astronomers alerted to the find trained several of Earth's largest telescopes skyward just in time to see the gamma-ray burst's fading afterglow.

The discovery is especially exciting for scientists because the explosion occurred during the so-called "cosmic dark ages", which started a mere 400,000 years after the Big Bang set the Universe in motion some 13.7 billion years ago.

During this period, free electrons and protons combined to form neutral atoms with the same number of positive and negative charges, resulting in an opaque -- or "dark" -- universe.

Not until 800 to 900 million years after the Big Bang were atoms and molecules "re-ionised", or electrically charged, resulting in the relatively transluscent inter-galactic medium we see today.

GRB 090423 flashed and crashed toward the end of these dark ages, making it the oldest object ever seen.

"This observation allows us to begin exploring the last blank space on our map of the Universe," said Nial Tanvir, a professor at the University of Leicester and lead author of one of the studies.

"It is tremendously exciting to be looking back in time to an era when the first stars were just switching on," said Andrew Levan, a professor at the University of Warwick in Britain and co-author of the same study.

The previous record holder for oldest object is at least 150 million years younger than the newly discovered gamma-ray burst.

Both studies were published in the British science journal Nature.

Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
47. i won't hazard a guess as to which one will be more odiferous!

(probably shouldn't have gone there...sorry!)

LOL
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Quoting presslord:
after the show tonight we will be auctioning off the aforementioned thong and wifebeater...

pearland has agreed to open the bidding at $1000.00...


That was mighty nice of Pearl to do that Press....Everything is bigger in Texas as they say.
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47. oh, no!

LOL
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after the show tonight we will be auctioning off the aforementioned thong and wifebeater...

pearland has agreed to open the bidding at $1000.00...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10458
oh, my! LOL

once again, i seem to have started it! DOH!
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43. oh, my........

LOL
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.