Winter forecast for the U.S.; Typhoon Mirinae threatens the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on October 28, 2009

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Expect a warmer than average winter in the north central U.S., and cooler than average over the Southeast U.S., according the latest winter forecast issued last Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Wetter than average conditions are likely from Texas across the Gulf Coast and across the Southeastern U.S., with California also more likely than not to get increased precipitation. Those are the temperature patterns observed about 60% of the time in the U.S. during an El Niño event. As I discussed in yesterday's post, El Niño--the periodic warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean that occurs every 2 - 7 years--has just crossed the threshold from weak to moderate, meaning that that ocean temperatures are 1.0 - 1.5°C above average along the Equator off the Pacific coast of South America. Moderate El Niño conditions are expected to continue through the winter months of December - February, with some climate forecast models predicting intensification into a strong El Niño. The presence of all that warm water alters the path of the jet stream, affecting the winter weather across a large portion of the globe. In particular, the southern branch of the jet stream--called the subtropical jet--is expected to intensify, bringing increased cloudiness and storminess along its usual path, from south Texas, across the Gulf Coast, through Florida, and into South and North Carolina. The increased cloudiness typically leads to cooler temperatures and more rainfall across the entire Southeastern U.S., especially Florida and South Texas. This should give significant drought relief to the South Texas.

The heat in the Eastern Pacific Ocean during an El Niño winter makes for more intense mid-latitude low pressure systems off the U.S. west coast. As a result, these storms are able to pump abnormally warm air into western Canada, Alaska and the extreme northern portion of the contiguous United States. With this warm air typically comes drier than normal conditions. With the forecast for Vancouver, Canada--home to the February 12 - 28 2010 Winter Olympics this winter--calling for warmer and drier conditions than average, lack of snow may be a problem for some of the venues. If the El Niño manages to strengthen to the strong category (greater than 1.5°C), California will most likely experience much increased precipitation, and the North Central U.S. will see winter temperatures 3 - 6°F above average. NOAA maintains a web page that shows the typical U.S. temperature and precipitation patterns for any season for historical EL Niño and La Niña events. Golden Gate Weather takes the idea a step further, and separates the effects by whether it is a weak, moderate, or strong El Niño.

How good is this forecast?
Not all El Niño winters follow the usual pattern. For instance, the El Niño winter of 2004 - 2005 had above-average temperatures over the entire U.S., and drier than average conditions across Florida, which are the opposite of the typical pattern observed during most El Niño winters (Figures 1 and 2). There are other natural variations in the weather and climate, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that can act to counteract or re-enforce the typical El Niño pattern. In addition, the climate is changing due to human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases, and its possible that what we've come to expect an El Niño winter to be like based on past history will no longer be true as often. It is likely the dramatic loss of arctic sea ice in recent years is already significantly affecting precipitation and temperature patterns during winter, and that the patterns we expect to see during El Niño winters are now changing to a new mode. I'll discuss the possibilities in a future post.


Figure 1. Wintertime (December - February) temperatures for the U.S. over the past nine years. The past three winters with El Niño conditions (yellow highlighted years) were 2003, 2005, and 2007. The 2003 El Niño was moderate strength, and 2005 and 2007 were weak. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Figure 2. Wintertime (December - February) precipitation for the U.S. over the past nine years. The past three winters with El Niño conditions (yellow highlighted years) were 2003, 2005, and 2007. The 2003 El Niño was moderate strength, and 2005 and 2007 were weak. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Philippines prepare for Typhoon Mirinae
Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but appears to have leveled out in intensity. Latest infrared satellite loops show a large, well organized cloud pattern, but an eye is not evident, and the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops has not changed much over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity have held steady over the past twelve hours. Wind shear is a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2 along Mirinae's entire path to the Philippines. Values of TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 are frequently associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next three days, intensification of Mirinae into a major Category 3 or higher typhoon before its expected landfall at 06 UTC October 31 on Luzon Island is a good possibility.


Figure 4. Mirinae on October 27, 2009, as a tropical storm with 55 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, the extreme Southwestern Caribbean near the coast of Panama is expected to gradually moisten early next week, and several recent runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models suggested that a tropical depression could form in the Southwest Caribbean off the coast of Panama 7 - 8 days from now.

Next post
In tomorrow's port, I'll discuss the impact of El Niño on wintertime tornado activity in Florida, plus have an update on the Philippines typhoon, and the latest model predictions of a possible tropical depression in the Caribbean next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting presslord:
I heard Barometer Bob is gonna have a really cool guest tomorrow night...

Paul Timmons from portlight
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Quoting Weather456:
Good evening,

I am having a hard time finding models that show some development in the Caribbean next week but we will see how that goes. Meanwhile, we may have something track this weekend into next week.

All of the global models are predicting a cold front to swing across the subtropical Atlantic with a low pressure secluding south of a blocking high, while the rest of the front heads off into the Westerlies. The models are in fairly good agreement that a low will form and retrograde back west in 4-5 days and will have about 3-4 days to acquire tropical characteristics before becoming absorbed into another cold front.

Based on the given parameters represented both in the CPDs and the ECMWF model run below, the feature will most likely be subtropical.





I agree with 456....I posted the same early this morning in my Tropical Update. Here it is as i have it listed as AOI #2!




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Hey anyone have a video of todays rocket launch? I missed it.

If the El Nino gets strong should I expect record Cold in FL? Any snowfall a possibility? Ok maybe that's an exaggeration.

And can somebody tell me why the Cleveland Indians got rid of their 2 ACE in Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia?
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411. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TYPHOON MIRINAE (T0921)
9:00 AM JST October 29 2009
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mirinae (955 hPa) located at 15.9N 132.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 17 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm-Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
=================
200 NM from the center in north quadrant
120 NM from the center in south quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.7N 127.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 15.5N 122.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 15.6N 116.6E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45283
Quoting presslord:
I heard Barometer Bob is gonna have a really cool guest tomorrow night...


really who? lol
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Where did Patrap go?

Just wondering if you have ever heard this story:

For it is not the ghost of Pere Dagobert that haunts this city. His impression was left in the rain. On rainy summer nights, his haunting voice can still be heard echoing throughout the alleys. Still singing the Kyrie. The closer to dawn the louder the singing. His beautiful tenor voice still singing the funeral mass, down the alley, and throughout Orleans Avenue.
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I heard Barometer Bob is gonna have a really cool guest tomorrow night...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10490
Link

Conditions in the NE TX Panhandle is starting to look "real interesting"! Link above is to the SPC Meso Discussion!!
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406. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
742
TCNA21 RJTD 290000
CCAA 29000 47644 MIRINAE(0921) 25159 11322 13234 250// 92617=

0:00 AM UTC October 29 2009

TY Mirinae (0921) [System #25]
15.9N 132.2E
Dvorak Intensity: T5.0
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45283
Good evening,

I am having a hard time finding models that show some development in the Caribbean next week but we will see how that goes. Meanwhile, we may have something track this weekend into next week.

All of the global models are predicting a cold front to swing across the subtropical Atlantic with a low pressure secluding south of a blocking high, while the rest of the front heads off into the Westerlies. The models are in fairly good agreement that a low will form and retrograde back west in 4-5 days and will have about 3-4 days to acquire tropical characteristics before becoming absorbed into another cold front.

Based on the given parameters represented both in the CPDs and the ECMWF model run below, the feature will most likely be subtropical.



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Quoting eyesontheweather:
is it anchored in place or is it possible for it to get pushed from currents.


This one wasn't:

Hurricane Makes A Reef
Jamais Cascio, 13 Jul 05

In 2002, the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary saw the deliberate sinking of a retired US Navy ship in order to create an artificial reef. Artificial reefs are proven methods of helping to restore damaged undersea ecosystems; this one didn't serve that purpose, however, as the scuttling failed to go as planned, and the ship ended up resting upside-down and at an angle that proved dangerous to navigation. Subsequent efforts reduced the danger, but the ship was still not in the intended position -- until now.

Hurricane Dennis, pathing near the Keys, managed to generate sufficient undersea currents to flip the sunken vessel, putting it in the right-side-up position that was the goal in 2002. While the previous position was working fine as a reef, the new orientation will make it more attractive to divers -- who, in turn, help to support the artificial reef program.
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403. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "SANTI" has intensified further as it continues to move towards Central Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
===============================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Santi (Mirinae) located at 16.2ºN 133.5ºE or 1,080 km east of Casiguran, Aurora has 10 minute sustained winds of 150 km/h (80 kts) with gustiness up to 185 km/h (100 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Isabela
2.Aurora
3.Northern Quezon
4.Polillo Islands

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45283
Thanks Skyepony!

Well, I sent a letter to Sen. Bill Nelson about S. Amendment 2666 as Dr Masters asked.. finally got a response;

Dear Mr. *****:

Thank you for contacting me regarding S. Amendment 2666, which would cut funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) by $172 million. I oppose this amendment, because a budget cut of that magnitude would severely impact NOAA's ability to prepare the United States for hurricanes, thus undermining public safety and the public good.

Since 2003, hurricanes and other tropical cyclones have caused more than 2,000 deaths in the United States. These extreme weather events also cause significant economic devastation. Insured losses average more than $5.2 billion per year in the U.S. A recent study of hurricane-related damages over the last century suggests that economic losses will double every ten years. With more than 50 percent of the U.S. population living within 50 miles of the coast, and with 180 million people visiting the coast annually, the risks to life and property are growing. Clearly, there is an urgent need for substantial improvements in hurricane forecasting and planning--not budget cuts.

NOAA serves a vital role in forecasting and tracking severe weather patterns. Cuts to its budget would stall NOAA's Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Project Plan and the agency's plans for a new system to replace the QuikSCAT, an aging satellite used to monitor ocean surface wind and waves.

I have worked for years to ensure that Florida and the U.S. are better protected and prepared for hurricanes. I will continue to fight for funding for NOAA that ensures our safety in the face of severe and deadly storms. Please do not hesitate to contact me in the future with your thoughts.
Sincerely,
Senator Bill Nelson

good deal.
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399. cool pictures...thanks for sharing!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
El Nino is the result of a lot of excess hot air.....


LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
399. Skyepony (Mod)
Caught the Ares I-X launch from the NASA causeway. Uploaded my pics from the day. Not as loud as a shuttle but loud enough. What a bunch of cloud drama. You could really see the shear~ upper deck of clouds streaming from the North at near 20kts. The lower looked even quicker from the south. Was really awesome to see the culmination of all that work.
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398. xcool
im soso happy white house email me back
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Quoting NRAamy:
eyes...you have mail....

;)
now you have mail
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So let me get this straight: El Nino now causes global warming?




"YES!!!!!"
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
eyes...you have mail....

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting ColdInFL:
"The presence of all that warm water alters the path of the jet stream, affecting the winter weather across a large portion of the globe."

So let me get this straight: El Nino now causes global warming?
NO but el nino could be considered a result of excess carbon being released into the atmosphere
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"The presence of all that warm water alters the path of the jet stream, affecting the winter weather across a large portion of the globe."

So let me get this straight: El Nino now causes global warming?
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Quoting NRAamy:
the cat IS the F word....

and if you don't know about it, you'll have to get the info someplace else...I don't need Taz banning me....

scratching head with confused look on face
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NRAamy, is it not a funny story like the one Presslord had today (see post 261)
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the cat IS the F word....

and if you don't know about it, you'll have to get the info someplace else...I don't need Taz banning me....

Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting NRAamy:
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I guess NRAamy is either writing the history (weather incl) or has forgotten.... Was really lookin forward to it too.


??

are you referring to my angst over the F word?
That and a cat
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Quoting NRAamy:
I can't even find the closest Walmart on Google

damn, Grandpa...get one of your Great-Grandkids to help you out!

;)


A Grandpa (Opa actually) and can still find things myself.
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Quoting Grothar:



Gee, thanks Dan. Got one for Copenhagen?? Smarty. lollololol


link
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
I guess NRAamy is either writing the history (weather incl) or has forgotten.... Was really lookin forward to it too.


??

are you referring to my angst over the F word?
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Got to go everyone. Stay well. Thanks again for a few hours of free entertainment. xcool, keep up those images. Dan, well, you'r another story, Amy, keep cool. Hope to join you all again. If AwakeinMaryland comes on give her a big hey for me. Nite all. If Tdude hasn't been banned, nite to you, too!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I guess NRAamy is either writing the history (weather incl) or has forgotten.... Was really lookin forward to it too.
Still nothin!
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383. xcool
seeing i.m old too
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"bud"?....you guys are back to JFV?

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting xcool:
lol


thanks, xcool, thought you were a Bud! lol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
380. xcool
lol
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Quoting NRAamy:
I can't even find the closest Walmart on Google

damn, Grandpa...get one of your Great-Grandkids to help you out!

;)


Wish I could, but they are too old to drive. lol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
I can't even find the closest Walmart on Google

damn, Grandpa...get one of your Great-Grandkids to help you out!

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting PcolaDan:


Luck? Super googler? ? ?

Walmart



Gee, thanks Dan. Got one for Copenhagen?? Smarty. lollololol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Quoting Grothar:


Where do you find these images???? I can't even find the closest Walmart on Google.


Luck? Super googler? ? ?

Walmart
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Based on this quote "Because the Oriskany is in deep water and can be affected by strong water currents, divers are strongly encouraged to use extreme caution when diving this reef" it sounds like it's not attached to anything but sand.



Where do you find these images???? I can't even find the closest Walmart on Google.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
Quoting Bonedog:
just google either great carrier reef or diving uss oriskany post reputable sites are on the top.


Local news had it live when it was sunk. Was cool, and a little sad, to watch. This site has some real good pictures of the sinking. WARNING! not for dial up
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your welcome
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Quoting Bonedog:
Link

Link

Link

Link

Link

just a few off the top
absolutley awesome, thank you
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just google either great carrier reef or diving uss oriskany post reputable sites are on the top.
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Link

Link

Link

Link

Link

just a few off the top
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eyes read post 366 I answered it just before you posted LOL it was erosion due to currents that dredged it deeper.
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Quoting Bonedog:
Gustav shifted it not Katrina. It actually settled deeper into the seabed due to erosion from currents. Basically dredged itself a deeper pocket.
Thank you. That is truley amazing to me. is there someplace you know of where you can get more info on this.
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Quoting Bonedog:
Pcola

The ship came to rest lying upright, as was hoped. The flight deck was at a depth of 135 ft (41 m), and its island rose to 70 ft (21 m).[6] Following Hurricane Gustav, the ship shifted 10 feet deeper leaving the flight deck at 145 feet (44 m).[7] The island structure is accessible to recreational divers, but the flight deck will require additional training and equipment.[7] It is now popularly known as the "Great Carrier Reef"[8], a reference to Australia's Great Barrier Reef.



The deck is now 145 feet max depth for recreational diving is at 130 feet. Now you have to be a technical diver with diffrent equipment and gas mixtures and dive computers to dive below 130 feet.
OK so it was Gustav. WOW, amazing stuff. Is it known if it moved or was the seabed washed from beneath it
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Gustav shifted it not Katrina. It actually settled deeper into the seabed due to erosion from currents. Basically dredged itself a deeper pocket.
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Based on this quote "Because the Oriskany is in deep water and can be affected by strong water currents, divers are strongly encouraged to use extreme caution when diving this reef" it sounds like it's not attached to anything but sand.

Very interesting and from what you said earlier it's depth changed from Hurricane Katrina. Wonder if it actually moved or sand/seabed was eroded from the currents. Regardless that is amazing that the currents at that depth can do that from a wind as compared to a sunami
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364. xcool
snow ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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