Winter forecast for the U.S.; Typhoon Mirinae threatens the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:18 PM GMT on October 28, 2009

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Expect a warmer than average winter in the north central U.S., and cooler than average over the Southeast U.S., according the latest winter forecast issued last Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Wetter than average conditions are likely from Texas across the Gulf Coast and across the Southeastern U.S., with California also more likely than not to get increased precipitation. Those are the temperature patterns observed about 60% of the time in the U.S. during an El Niño event. As I discussed in yesterday's post, El Niño--the periodic warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean that occurs every 2 - 7 years--has just crossed the threshold from weak to moderate, meaning that that ocean temperatures are 1.0 - 1.5°C above average along the Equator off the Pacific coast of South America. Moderate El Niño conditions are expected to continue through the winter months of December - February, with some climate forecast models predicting intensification into a strong El Niño. The presence of all that warm water alters the path of the jet stream, affecting the winter weather across a large portion of the globe. In particular, the southern branch of the jet stream--called the subtropical jet--is expected to intensify, bringing increased cloudiness and storminess along its usual path, from south Texas, across the Gulf Coast, through Florida, and into South and North Carolina. The increased cloudiness typically leads to cooler temperatures and more rainfall across the entire Southeastern U.S., especially Florida and South Texas. This should give significant drought relief to the South Texas.

The heat in the Eastern Pacific Ocean during an El Niño winter makes for more intense mid-latitude low pressure systems off the U.S. west coast. As a result, these storms are able to pump abnormally warm air into western Canada, Alaska and the extreme northern portion of the contiguous United States. With this warm air typically comes drier than normal conditions. With the forecast for Vancouver, Canada--home to the February 12 - 28 2010 Winter Olympics this winter--calling for warmer and drier conditions than average, lack of snow may be a problem for some of the venues. If the El Niño manages to strengthen to the strong category (greater than 1.5°C), California will most likely experience much increased precipitation, and the North Central U.S. will see winter temperatures 3 - 6°F above average. NOAA maintains a web page that shows the typical U.S. temperature and precipitation patterns for any season for historical EL Niño and La Niña events. Golden Gate Weather takes the idea a step further, and separates the effects by whether it is a weak, moderate, or strong El Niño.

How good is this forecast?
Not all El Niño winters follow the usual pattern. For instance, the El Niño winter of 2004 - 2005 had above-average temperatures over the entire U.S., and drier than average conditions across Florida, which are the opposite of the typical pattern observed during most El Niño winters (Figures 1 and 2). There are other natural variations in the weather and climate, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that can act to counteract or re-enforce the typical El Niño pattern. In addition, the climate is changing due to human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases, and its possible that what we've come to expect an El Niño winter to be like based on past history will no longer be true as often. It is likely the dramatic loss of arctic sea ice in recent years is already significantly affecting precipitation and temperature patterns during winter, and that the patterns we expect to see during El Niño winters are now changing to a new mode. I'll discuss the possibilities in a future post.


Figure 1. Wintertime (December - February) temperatures for the U.S. over the past nine years. The past three winters with El Niño conditions (yellow highlighted years) were 2003, 2005, and 2007. The 2003 El Niño was moderate strength, and 2005 and 2007 were weak. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Figure 2. Wintertime (December - February) precipitation for the U.S. over the past nine years. The past three winters with El Niño conditions (yellow highlighted years) were 2003, 2005, and 2007. The 2003 El Niño was moderate strength, and 2005 and 2007 were weak. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Philippines prepare for Typhoon Mirinae
Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but appears to have leveled out in intensity. Latest infrared satellite loops show a large, well organized cloud pattern, but an eye is not evident, and the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops has not changed much over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity have held steady over the past twelve hours. Wind shear is a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2 along Mirinae's entire path to the Philippines. Values of TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 are frequently associated with rapid intensification. With wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next three days, intensification of Mirinae into a major Category 3 or higher typhoon before its expected landfall at 06 UTC October 31 on Luzon Island is a good possibility.


Figure 4. Mirinae on October 27, 2009, as a tropical storm with 55 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and the the Caribbean is dominated by dry air and high wind shear. However, the extreme Southwestern Caribbean near the coast of Panama is expected to gradually moisten early next week, and several recent runs of the GFS and NOGAPS models suggested that a tropical depression could form in the Southwest Caribbean off the coast of Panama 7 - 8 days from now.

Next post
In tomorrow's port, I'll discuss the impact of El Niño on wintertime tornado activity in Florida, plus have an update on the Philippines typhoon, and the latest model predictions of a possible tropical depression in the Caribbean next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tornadodude:


seriously?? do you know where Washington Indiana is? that is where I am from haha


Oh yes.....graduated HS at Pike Central....small world......LOL
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey anyone have a video of todays rocket launch? I missed it.

If the El Nino gets strong should I expect record Cold in FL? Any snowfall a possibility? Ok maybe that's an exaggeration.

And can somebody tell me why the Cleveland Indians got rid of their 2 ACE in Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia?


It will be an interesting winter if el nino gets to strong. Likely a few records broken here and there. I'm wondering if there will be a snow flurry in Tallahassee. They say it happens once every three years if memory serves.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
457. T-Dude:
Here's something I found to help you with your paper regarding construction projects around campus:

Link

Think it will help?
Gotta' go to dreamland soonest!


hmmm, very interesting, but I'm doing about projects around the Purdue Campus, thanks tho! (:

goodnight!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
457. T-Dude:
Here's something I found to help you with your paper regarding construction projects around campus:

Link

Think it will help?
Gotta' go to dreamland soonest!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting TampaSpin:


OH no a Boilermaker.......I'm from Indiana also...lived near Evansville.


seriously?? do you know where Washington Indiana is? that is where I am from haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


See ya later man! have a good one.

I'll be up for awhile. I'm writing a paper about various construction projects around the Purdue campus :P


OH no a Boilermaker.......I'm from Indiana also...lived near Evansville.
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Quoting btwntx08:
El Paso, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 10:51 PM MDT on October 28, 2009
37 °F
Light Snow
Windchill: 30 °F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 32 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.80 in (Steady)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16



NAM does a good job a winter forecast!

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Off to bed......NITE all!


See ya later man! have a good one.

I'll be up for awhile. I'm writing a paper about various construction projects around the Purdue campus :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Off to bed......NITE all!
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454. xcool
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Did everyone get Banned today.......LOL


I'm still alive (somehow) (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
450. xcool





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Quoting P451:


My posts got wiped but I'm still here.

*shrugs*


I just looked at your post #167 again, midnight EDT.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Is the gfs 384 hr run showing some kinf od low in the Wester Carrib?
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Hurricane Juan October-Nov 1985,A Late season Hurricane



Hurricane Juan near peak intensity



Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle

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ARES 1-X Large Launch Image
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Quoting rareaire:
no worries Tampa, Im still here haven't gotten banned in almost a month!


Wow! What success you have had. You the man!....LOL
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What happened to the satellite feed for the Western Pacific. It's gone!
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whats the latest a hurricane formed and hit the conus? anyone!
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no worries Tampa, Im still here haven't gotten banned in almost a month!
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My thoughts on the Atlantic:

Low near 15N 30W a LOW(10-25%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 54W south of 15N a LOW(10-25%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 65W south of 20N a LOW(10-25%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
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438. Skyepony (Mod)
Mirinae has the ribbon clouds of a typhoon not in perfect conditions at the moment.

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437. Skyepony (Mod)
Glad ya'll are enjoying the pictures. Launch was awesome.

JTWC tract is doing well in the Marinae model vs humans race. Probably UKMT's season best, certainly in the chase..

Latest Error (nm)
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
AVNO INCREASING 13.4 136.8 -1 -1 -1
JMAE DECREASING 70.2 136.8 -1 -1 -1
JTWC DECREASING 30 96.2 -1 -1 -1
KHRA INCREASING 166 453.5 -1 -1 -1
KHRM INCREASING 160.1 447.8 -1 -1 -1
KXTR INCREASING 72 376.1 -1 -1 -1
MM5B CONSTANT 98.4 212.1 -1 -1 -1
MM5E INCREASING 136.8 270.7 -1 -1 -1
RJTD CONSTANT 51.3 -1 -1 -1 -1
TXLA CONSTANT 78.2 -1 -1 -1 -1
UKMT INCREASING 50.9 78.2 -1 -1 -1

Blue is AVNO (best track leader), red is humans..

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436. xcool
AwakeInMaryland any time
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Quoting PcolaDan:


It's a religious experience and the 11th commandment. I mean c'mon, the Bible starts with it ---
In the Big Inning...

just passing thru later

Whatta' groaner! cyl, Dan.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
431. xcool, thank you so much.
Nice letter! I am going to put those websites on wordpad now and print them so I can check them out. Thnx again, appreciate it.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I think blog people are watching the World Series baseball. Good to watch something besides weather!


It's a religious experience and the 11th commandment. I mean c'mon, the Bible starts with it ---
In the Big Inning...

just passing thru later
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432. xcool
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431. xcool
Dear Scott :

Thank you for writing me. I have heard from many
Americans who are losing their jobs and struggling to pay their
bills. Every day, I meet with my economic advisors to make sure
we are doing all we can to create good jobs and help Americans
support their families and pursue the American Dream.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was the
first step to spur job growth and ease the pain of unemployment.
This measure saves or creates millions of jobs here at home in
industries such as alterative energy, health care, and construction.
It has already provided relief to many unemployed Americans by
extending and increasing emergency unemployment compensation
and increasing access to health insurance. My 2010 Budget will
expand these efforts by modernizing the unemployment insurance
system and expanding health coverage to more workers.

My Administration is protecting American jobs by
emphasizing job training in industries that cannot be outsourced.
Recently laid-off workers receiving unemployment benefits have
new opportunities to pursue higher education and job training
programs, including easier access to Pell Grants. To encourage job
creation in the United States, I am replacing tax laws that send jobs
overseas with new incentives to create them here at home, and
available assistance can be found online at:
www.dol.gov/recovery/implement.htm or www.opportunity.gov.

Together, we can help more Americans find and keep good
jobs and enjoy a healthy standard of living. To locate an
employment center near you, select your state at:
www.dol.gov/dol/location.htm. For information on benefits and
opportunities for those out of work, I encourage you to visit:
www.dol.gov/dol/audience/aud-unemployed.htm. To find career
resources, you may call 1-877-872-5627 visit or visit:
www.careeronestop.org .

While it will take time to turn our economy around, I am confident
that we will emerge from this crisis stronger than before.

Sincerely,

Barack Obama


To be a part of our agenda for change, join us at www.WhiteHouse.gov

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430. xcool
AwakeInMaryland .;)
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Quoting xcool:
AwakeInMaryland .about jobs

Ahhhhh. Well, if you get one with barackobama, please call me for lunch. I will take the Metro subway and show you and your family the museums!

That would be so nice. We can hope!
I think blog people are watching the World Series baseball. Good to watch something besides weather!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
428. xcool
AwakeInMaryland .about jobs
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Quoting xcool:
AwakeInMaryland yeah loll .barackobama

That is so very, very (x)cool!
About NASA funding, or something else?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
426. xcool
AwakeInMaryland yeah loll .barackobama
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Hi, xcool!

You're going to be a Daddy???!!! So hap-pee for you!

What is the e-mail you got from the White House??
What a day!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
424. xcool




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Quoting TampaSpin:
Did everyone get Banned today.......LOL

Hi Tampa! I think Admin. took a holiday, because all the comrades-in-hilarity posts are still there. I'm home from the flu clinic, pretty worn out -- and I think the jokesters must have worn themselves out, too.

Anyone who who would like a big ol' laugh for the day, check post #167. It's a Wunderland Classic, one of the finest.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
422. xcool
:0
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421. beell
In case it has not been mentioned, don't forget the tail end of the cold front in the BOC this weekend! Modeled to come together in the EPAC-but who knows?
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Thanks Skyepony!

Well, I sent a letter to Sen. Bill Nelson about S. Amendment 2666 as Dr Masters asked.. finally got a response;...


Good evening guys/gals,

Indeed... I received the same canned response. To be expected since you can't really personalize it too much (too much time to do so), but glad he did opposed it.
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Did everyone get Banned today.......LOL
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I was able to see the rocket launch from the fl tech campus well today. Very bright. Amazing launch. Go NASA.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hey anyone have a video of todays rocket launch? I missed it.

If the El Nino gets strong should I expect record Cold in FL? Any snowfall a possibility? Ok maybe that's an exaggeration.

And can somebody tell me why the Cleveland Indians got rid of their 2 ACE in Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia?


Launch video
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Ares lAUNCH VIDEO
Link
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Quoting presslord:
I heard Barometer Bob is gonna have a really cool guest tomorrow night...

Paul Timmons from portlight
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.