El Niño intensifies from weak to moderate; Phillippines under the gun again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on October 27, 2009

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El Niño conditions have strengthened in recent weeks, crossing the threshold from "weak" to "moderate", according to data compiled by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. NOAA defines "moderate" El Niño conditions as existing when sea surface temperature (SST) departure from average in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") warms above 1.0°C. According to the latest time-series plot of "Niña 3.4 region" SSTs (Figure 1), we crossed that threshold last week. Monthly average SSTs will have to remain above 1.0°C for five consecutive months in order for this to be considered a "moderate" El Niño event. The ongoing intensification of El Niño could have major impacts on this winter's weather.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for the past two years along the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). Moderate strength El Niño conditions occur when the Niña 3.4 anomaly exceeds 1.0°C, which occurred last week (red arrow). Weak El Niño conditions (Niña 3.4 anomaly between 0.5 - 1.0°C) were present from early June to mid-October. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The intensification of El Niño is due to a combination of events in the ocean and the atmosphere. In the ocean, a slow-moving wave of water more than 5°C (9°F) warmer than average is progressing from west to east along the Equator (Figure 2). This wave, known as a "Kelvin" wave, is focused at a depth of 150 meters, but also affects surface waters. The Kelvin wave was at 175W on October 1, and is now near 140W, so it is traveling east at about 4 mph (100 miles/day). At the ocean surface, a burst of west-to-east winds near the Date Line has weakened the trade winds (Figure 3), which blow the opposite direction--east to west. The trade winds have weakened by 1 - 2 m/s over the past few weeks, allowing the Kelvin wave to push warm water eastward towards South America. The result of this interplay between ocean and air is an intensification of El Niño conditions from weak to moderate.


Figure 2. Animation of the ocean temperatures (top) and departure of ocean temperatures from average (bottom) as a function of depth along the Equator in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. The left side of the image is near Australia, and the right side is near the coast of South America. At the beginning frame in the bottom image on October 5, an ocean Kelvin wave is apparent at a depth of 150 meters, where the ocean temperature is up to 3°C above average (yellow colors). The wave travels eastwards at about 100 miles/day. By the final frame (October 25), the Kelvin wave has warmed to a temperature 5°C above average (orange colors). The Kelvin wave is helping to push the warm water at the surface to the east, as seen in the progression of the red and orange colors eastwards in the top image. I constructed the animation using the free ImageMagick package on a Linux machine, using data plotted up from the NOAA's Tropical Atmospheric Ocean (TAO) project web page.


Figure 3. Top: Sea Surface temperatures (colors) along the Equator between New Guinea and South America, with surface wind vectors overlaid. Note that there is a burst of westerly winds near the Date Line, 180W. This westerly wind burst is weakening the trade winds, which blow the opposite direction, east-to-west, over the ocean between the Date Line and the coast of South America. Bottom: Departure of wind speed from average along the Equator shows the effect of the westerly wind burst, which has weakened the trade winds at the surface by 1 - 2 m/s along a large swath of ocean near the Equator. The reduction in trade winds allows the warm water to the west to slosh eastwards, intensifying El Niño. Image credit: NOAA's Tropical Atmospheric Ocean (TAO) project web page.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane, the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry at present. One possible area of concern early next week may be near Bermuda, where the models indicate a large non-tropical low may cut off from the jet stream 6 - 7 days from now. This low could potentially remain over warm waters long enough to acquire tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Such a storm would only be a threat to Bermuda.

Philippines under the gun yet again
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Storm Mirinae is strengthening quickly east of the islands, and could be a typhoon later today. Latest infrared satellite loops show a large and expanding region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with well-developed spiral banding and excellent upper-level outflow developing. Wind shear is a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2 along Mirinae's entire path to the Philippines. Values of TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 are frequently associated with rapid intensification, and I expect Mirinae will be a major Category 3 or higher typhoon by Thursday. Mirinae is expected to track westward and hit the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. With wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range, the models fairly united about a westward track over the Philippines, and plenty of ocean heat to feed off, the odds certainly favor a strike by Mirinae at Category 1 or higher strength on hard-hit Luzon.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Mirinae, as it passed north of the Guam radar station last night.

Statisticians reject global cooling
An interesting exercise was conducted by the Associated Press (AP), who gave global average temperature data for the past 130 years to a group of independent statisticians, and told them to analyze the data without telling them what the data represented. These experts concluded that the data showed a distinct decades-long upward trend in the numbers, and no significant drop in the past ten years. This is not too surprising, since no scientific studies in peer-reviewed scientific journals have supported the idea that the globe is cooling. The AP exercise was the lead story in this morning's on-line version of the MSNBC news. Dr. Ricky Rood's climate change blog has an interest analysis of global warming and cooling trends, and how natural variability over years or decades can mask long-term trends. With El Niño cranking up to moderate levels heading into 2010, there's at least a 50/50 chance that year will end up beating 2005/1998 as the warmest year on record, putting the "global cooling" hype to rest for a few years.

Second Annual Portlight Honor Walk
When:
Saturday, December 5, 2009 or Sunday, December 6, 2009

What:
A nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of Portlight's ongoing efforts specifically aimed at providing Christmas presents for kids and families devastated by the recent Atlanta floods, South Carolina wildfires, American Samoa tsunami, and other disasters that may occur.

Why:
Un-served, underserved and forgotten people are depending on us.

How:
We need one hundred people across the country to commit to walking one mile on this day, and to raise at least $300.00 in sponsorship from friends, family, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Participants can choose where to walk--it can be the park, the mall the neighborhood--anywhere you choose. The first 100 participants to raise at least $300 will receive a commemorative T-Shirt.

To register, simply e-mail your intention to participate at paul@portlight.org

Check the Portlight featured Weather Underground Blog regularly for updates!

The Honor Walk Sponsor Form available here will help you keep track of funds and pledges:
http://www.portlight.org/images/walkerform.pdf

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Thursday night
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live this Thursday at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Next post
I'll have a new post on Wednesday, when I'll discuss how the recent intensification of El Niño may affect winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


Looking awsome.

but not as awesome as it was going to get.



was ment to be a Cat.4 on landfall now only a Cat.2

This if from PAGASA:
Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, Wednesday, 28-Oct-2009 09:36:26 PHT no tropical cyclone existing within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).


does anyone know where the PAR starts for the Philippines? To me its way to close to the country. If it can been seen on there own sat image then it should be in there area of responsibility.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice post (#344) Dan. For a second there I thought I was looking at a tattoo!
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For anyone who might know, why was Fred's NHC report up last evening, but taken down this morning? Is it some kind of glitch, or are they correcting some kind of significant error? o_O
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346. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TYPHOON MIRINAE (T0921)
9:00 AM JST October 28 2009
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon near Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mirinae (965 hPa) located at 16.2N 138.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving west at 7 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm-Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.9N 132.8E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 16.2N 127.6E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 16.2N 123.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
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good Gro...hope you're well...
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This from MSNBC
Mini-tornadoes known as dust devils have left behind dark, twisting tracks on Martian sand dunes in this image, captured by NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter in August and released on Oct. 14. Whirling winds create the patterns by stirring up darker material beneath the surface.

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Quoting Ossqss:


Yes as I cover my eyes and duck!






AAAAAHHHHHHHAHAHAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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The front is decaying rapidly, as expected it.

Too bad....no rain...
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting presslord:


Thanks!


Not you press! The Typhoon! Actually, both give me nightmares. How ya doing, guy??
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Quoting aquak9:
My GAWD, Oss...that oughtta be a bannable offense..

In order to ban someone admin has to first look at the picture. They've seen it before and can't stand the pain of viewing it again.
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Quoting presslord:
just lose the dress

...oh...if I just had a nickel for every boy who's said that to me...
I think it looks cute but the ring should be a little bigger.
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Quoting Grothar:


Looking awsome.


Thanks!
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Looking awsome.
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just lose the dress

...oh...if I just had a nickel for every boy who's said that to me...
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Statement as of 8:03 PM EDT on October 27, 2009


Tornado Watch 777 remains in effect until 1200 am EDT for the
following locations

SC
. South Carolina counties included are

Beaufort Berkeley Charleston
Colleton Dorchester Hampton
Jasper
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You better watch out press. PETA will be after you for endangering that chicken you must be setting on in that picture. No human has legs like that! :)

J/K -- L8R

I look forward to your broadcast. I am sure it will be very good and informative as always. Keep up the good work Press, just lose the dress, Uh, no don't do that. XD
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Taz...you'd better be planning to listen to me on Barometer Bob Thursday night...
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332. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
LMAO I see "Mrs" presslord made another visit to the blogs
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I'm sure you're safe, Oss.

Heck, maybe that's what kept the hurricanes away this year.
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330. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TCNA21 RJTD 280000
CCAA 28000 47644 MIRINAE(0921) 25162 11385 11244 245// 92818=

0:00 AM UTC October 28 2009

TY Mirinae (T0921) [System #25]
16.2N 138.5E
Dvorak Intensity: T4.5
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Quoting presslord:
I'll be wearing that Thursday night during the interview...close your eyes and picture it...


Please no webcam access, for our own well being press. LoL

Aquak9, I think admin will provide amnesty by vitrue of the pain in posting.
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309. antonio28 3:43 PM PDT on October 27, 2009 Hide this comment.
Good Evening,

I think is safe now to say R.I.P. to 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. No Lanfalls of any type with the exception of Bill. Thanks Mother nature for this break. Hope that this not translate to a very active 2010 season.

8-2-2. Congrats to 456, Storm W, Kman and Dr. Master. They were on the money this year. Also the models performs very accurate too.





in my books the mode runs did not do a vary good performs job this year there where a few set backs with the mode runs this year all so some of the mode runs nevere forcast some storm and then they came out of no where


so out of 10 stars

i give the mode runs a 5 out of 10 for a good job
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I'll be wearing that Thursday night during the interview...close your eyes and picture it...
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My GAWD, Oss...that oughtta be a bannable offense..
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Quoting presslord:
...ah...Does anyone happen to know....ah...who is gonna be...ah...Barometer Bob's guest Thursday night????? HHHHhhhhmmmmmmmmm....
Elvis Presley....jk
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Now I've seen PressInADress...

Imagine the Geico Gecko in a dress....am I the only one who thinks there'd be a little more than a passing resemblance?
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314. predicated, of course, on the supposition that CO2 emissions are the culprit in the first place...
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
321. 789
Quoting Weather456:


and Drakoen
did dr. masters mention ida in his blog today?
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Quoting aquak9:


The spokesman for Geico.


.no..it's a camal...
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318. 789
Quoting presslord:
...ah...Does anyone happen to know....ah...who is gonna be...ah...Barometer Bob's guest Thursday night????? HHHHhhhhmmmmmmmmm....
congrates and waiting to give a listen ! good luck to portlight getting the word out
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Quoting presslord:
...ah...Does anyone happen to know....ah...who is gonna be...ah...Barometer Bob's guest Thursday night????? HHHHhhhhmmmmmmmmm....


The spokesman for Geico.
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Quoting Inyo:
I think it is true that decreasing CO2 emissions would cause some economic consequences, however, there are also environmental and economic consequences if we don't decrease CO2... the big question is how much of each, and which are worse.


Well said.
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...ah...Does anyone happen to know....ah...who is gonna be...ah...Barometer Bob's guest Thursday night????? HHHHhhhhmmmmmmmmm....
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314. Inyo
I think it is true that decreasing CO2 emissions would cause some economic consequences, however, there are also environmental and economic consequences if we don't decrease CO2... the big question is how much of each, and which are worse.
Member Since: September 3, 2002 Posts: 42 Comments: 867
Quoting PcolaDan:


It's payback for typing upside down.


¿ʇnoqɐ buıʞ1ɐʇ noʎ ǝɹɐ ʇɐɥʍ
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Quoting antonio28:
Good Evening,

I think is safe now to say R.I.P. to 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. No Lanfalls of any type with the exception of Bill. Thanks Mother nature for this break. Hope that this not translate to a very active 2010 season.

8-2-2. Congrats to 456, Storm W, Kman and Dr. Master. They were on the money this year. Also the models performs very accurate too.

Looking foward to 2010 pre-season. I learn a lot every time that I came in to this blog.

See ya in June 1, 2010. Take care every one and keep it warm this winter in the CONUS.

BTW, Philies will win in 7 games a clasic 2010 Word Series.


I had 8-4-2, but mine was just a statistical guess. I'm certainly not in the same league as those big boys. Before you sign out for the year, what about 1935?



# Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Hurricane #1 18-26 AUG 105 - 3
2 Hurricane #2 29 AUG-10 SEP 140 892 5
3 Tropical Storm #3 30 AUG- 1 SEP 40 - -
4 Hurricane #4 23 SEP- 2 OCT 105 - 3
5 Hurricane #5 19-27 OCT 75 988 1
6 Hurricane #6 30 OCT- 8 NOV 70 973 1
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311. DDR
Quoting Weather456:
Good afternoon

How is everyone

Doing great!
Except for this heat i can't stand it.
The models give hope for some rain,i can
hardly wait.:)
NAM has a low over the windwards,it would be nice if we get 2 or 3 days of rain
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Quoting antonio28:
Good Evening,

I think is safe now to say R.I.P. to 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. No Lanfalls of any type with the exception of Bill. Thanks Mother nature for this break. Hope that this not translate to a very active 2010 season.

8-2-2. Congrats to 456, Storm W, Kman and Dr. Master. They were on the money this year. Also the models performs very accurate too.

Looking foward to 2010 pre-season. I learn a lot every time that I came in to this blog.

See ya in June 1, 2010. Take care every one and keep it warm this winter in the CONUS.

BTW, Philies will win in 7 games a clasic 2010 Word Series.


and Drakoen
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Evening,

I think is safe now to say R.I.P. to 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. No Lanfalls of any type with the exception of Bill. Thanks Mother nature for this break. Hope that this not translate to a very active 2010 season.

8-2-2. Congrats to 456, Storm W, Kman and Dr. Master. They were on the money this year. Also the models performs very accurate too.

Looking foward to 2010 pre-season. I learn a lot every time that I came in to this blog.

See ya in June 1, 2010. Take care every one and keep it warm this winter in the CONUS.

BTW, Philies will win in 7 games a clasic 2010 Word Series.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another tough day for our men and women overseas:
Kabul, Afghanistan (CNN) -- The U.S. military suffered another day of heavy losses in Afghanistan on Tuesday as roadside bombs killed eight soldiers, two military officials told CNN...
The attacks happened a day after 14 Americans were killed in a pair of helicopter crashes in Afghanistan. The 14 deaths were the largest number of Americans killed in Afghanistan in a single day in more than four years.
With the deaths of two troops on Sunday, a total of 24 Americans -- most of them military -- have been killed in a 48-hour period. That makes October 2009, with 58 fatalities, the deadliest month for the U.S. military since the Afghanistan war began in October 2001...
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307. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency

DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER LUPIT (T0920)
46.0ºN 155.0ºE - 956 hPa

SUBJECT: Developed Low In Sea Around The Kurils

----
heading for Aluetian Islands
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I got this from factcheck.org which is a nonpartisan organization dedicated to pealing away the BS from the political world. I highly recommend them. Unfortunately, they don't always tell you what you want to hear, as I was disappointed at their latest deposit to my email account:


Cap-and-trade: "Green Jobs" or Job Killer?
Government energy economists predict job growth would likely slow, but how much is uncertain.

October 27, 2009

Summary

A TV ad sponsored by business groups claims a bill to curb carbon emissions "will cost up to 2.4 million U.S. jobs" if enacted. That directly contradicts claims by President Obama and his allies who say the bill would create jobs -- 1.7 million of them according to one TV spot.
Who's right?
It's true that limiting carbon emissions would create some jobs -- building wind turbines or insulating homes and businesses, for example. But it's equally true that raising the cost of burning coal and oil would act as a drag on the entire economy, slowing down job creation in other industries.
According to projections by the Energy Information Administration and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the net effect of the House cap-and-trade bill will likely be to slow future job growth. Using 11 different possible future scenarios, EIA projects that future job growth might be constrained by something between 388,000 (under the most optimistic assumptions) and 2.3 million (assuming everything goes badly) 20 years from now. CBO also says employment would likely be lower than it would without the legislation -- but only "a little."
So claims that the bill would create hundreds of thousands of "green jobs" are misleading, at best. The government's own official economic projections indicate more jobs will be lost than created.
The NAM ad gets the trendline right by predicting job losses, but strains the evidence as to the magnitude. The 2.4 million figure might turn out to be true -- but only under the most negative set of assumptions. And EIA says those assumptions are "inherently less likely" than other scenarios.

Note: This is a summary only. The full article with analysis, images and citations may be viewed on our Web site.
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Weather456 and Futuremet....thanks for the explanation.
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304. xcool
")
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Quoting Weather456:


It was also educational. We often look at the development of cyclones but the demise these beast can help improve intensity forecasts in the future.

I imagine this has been a very "learning" eye opening" year for most mets tropical wise, & otherwise I guess also , as it takes many factors to make cyclogenesis come together to produce that "perfect storm" so to speak, it has been one for me thats for sure & I'm still ignorant weatherwise but has learned a lot on this blog thanks to knowledgable guys like yourself.
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Quoting ElConando:


jmo?

Why? You notice I mostly end my comments with jmo( just my opinion) my real name is Hank.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
2009 Hurricane Season is suffering from cyclosis which has been a good thing! Thanks to Weather456 & futuremet I'm always learning something new regarding weather terminology & weather in general.Hope everyone is having a great afternoon.
Regards,
Hank


It was also educational. We often look at the development of cyclones but the demise these beast can help improve intensity forecasts in the future.
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Quoting tornadodude:
yay it is fixed (:

thanks PcolaDan


Glad to hear it.
You're welcome.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
2009 Hurricane Season is suffering from cyclosis which has been a good thing! Thanks to Weather456 & futuremet I'm always learning something new regarding weather terminology & weather in general.Hope everyone is having a great afternoon.
Regards,
Hank


jmo?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.