El Niño intensifies from weak to moderate; Phillippines under the gun again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on October 27, 2009

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El Niño conditions have strengthened in recent weeks, crossing the threshold from "weak" to "moderate", according to data compiled by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. NOAA defines "moderate" El Niño conditions as existing when sea surface temperature (SST) departure from average in the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region") warms above 1.0°C. According to the latest time-series plot of "Niña 3.4 region" SSTs (Figure 1), we crossed that threshold last week. Monthly average SSTs will have to remain above 1.0°C for five consecutive months in order for this to be considered a "moderate" El Niño event. The ongoing intensification of El Niño could have major impacts on this winter's weather.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for the past two years along the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). Moderate strength El Niño conditions occur when the Niña 3.4 anomaly exceeds 1.0°C, which occurred last week (red arrow). Weak El Niño conditions (Niña 3.4 anomaly between 0.5 - 1.0°C) were present from early June to mid-October. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The intensification of El Niño is due to a combination of events in the ocean and the atmosphere. In the ocean, a slow-moving wave of water more than 5°C (9°F) warmer than average is progressing from west to east along the Equator (Figure 2). This wave, known as a "Kelvin" wave, is focused at a depth of 150 meters, but also affects surface waters. The Kelvin wave was at 175W on October 1, and is now near 140W, so it is traveling east at about 4 mph (100 miles/day). At the ocean surface, a burst of west-to-east winds near the Date Line has weakened the trade winds (Figure 3), which blow the opposite direction--east to west. The trade winds have weakened by 1 - 2 m/s over the past few weeks, allowing the Kelvin wave to push warm water eastward towards South America. The result of this interplay between ocean and air is an intensification of El Niño conditions from weak to moderate.


Figure 2. Animation of the ocean temperatures (top) and departure of ocean temperatures from average (bottom) as a function of depth along the Equator in the equatorial Eastern Pacific. The left side of the image is near Australia, and the right side is near the coast of South America. At the beginning frame in the bottom image on October 5, an ocean Kelvin wave is apparent at a depth of 150 meters, where the ocean temperature is up to 3°C above average (yellow colors). The wave travels eastwards at about 100 miles/day. By the final frame (October 25), the Kelvin wave has warmed to a temperature 5°C above average (orange colors). The Kelvin wave is helping to push the warm water at the surface to the east, as seen in the progression of the red and orange colors eastwards in the top image. I constructed the animation using the free ImageMagick package on a Linux machine, using data plotted up from the NOAA's Tropical Atmospheric Ocean (TAO) project web page.


Figure 3. Top: Sea Surface temperatures (colors) along the Equator between New Guinea and South America, with surface wind vectors overlaid. Note that there is a burst of westerly winds near the Date Line, 180W. This westerly wind burst is weakening the trade winds, which blow the opposite direction, east-to-west, over the ocean between the Date Line and the coast of South America. Bottom: Departure of wind speed from average along the Equator shows the effect of the westerly wind burst, which has weakened the trade winds at the surface by 1 - 2 m/s along a large swath of ocean near the Equator. The reduction in trade winds allows the warm water to the west to slosh eastwards, intensifying El Niño. Image credit: NOAA's Tropical Atmospheric Ocean (TAO) project web page.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane, the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry at present. One possible area of concern early next week may be near Bermuda, where the models indicate a large non-tropical low may cut off from the jet stream 6 - 7 days from now. This low could potentially remain over warm waters long enough to acquire tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida. Such a storm would only be a threat to Bermuda.

Philippines under the gun yet again
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Storm Mirinae is strengthening quickly east of the islands, and could be a typhoon later today. Latest infrared satellite loops show a large and expanding region of intense thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, with well-developed spiral banding and excellent upper-level outflow developing. Wind shear is a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. These warm waters extend to great depth, and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) is 80 - 100 kJ/cm^2 along Mirinae's entire path to the Philippines. Values of TCHP in excess of 90 kJ/cm^2 are frequently associated with rapid intensification, and I expect Mirinae will be a major Category 3 or higher typhoon by Thursday. Mirinae is expected to track westward and hit the Philippines' Luzon Island on Saturday. With wind shear expected to remain in the low to moderate range, the models fairly united about a westward track over the Philippines, and plenty of ocean heat to feed off, the odds certainly favor a strike by Mirinae at Category 1 or higher strength on hard-hit Luzon.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Mirinae, as it passed north of the Guam radar station last night.

Statisticians reject global cooling
An interesting exercise was conducted by the Associated Press (AP), who gave global average temperature data for the past 130 years to a group of independent statisticians, and told them to analyze the data without telling them what the data represented. These experts concluded that the data showed a distinct decades-long upward trend in the numbers, and no significant drop in the past ten years. This is not too surprising, since no scientific studies in peer-reviewed scientific journals have supported the idea that the globe is cooling. The AP exercise was the lead story in this morning's on-line version of the MSNBC news. Dr. Ricky Rood's climate change blog has an interest analysis of global warming and cooling trends, and how natural variability over years or decades can mask long-term trends. With El Niño cranking up to moderate levels heading into 2010, there's at least a 50/50 chance that year will end up beating 2005/1998 as the warmest year on record, putting the "global cooling" hype to rest for a few years.

Second Annual Portlight Honor Walk
When:
Saturday, December 5, 2009 or Sunday, December 6, 2009

What:
A nationwide grassroots event to raise funds for and awareness of Portlight's ongoing efforts specifically aimed at providing Christmas presents for kids and families devastated by the recent Atlanta floods, South Carolina wildfires, American Samoa tsunami, and other disasters that may occur.

Why:
Un-served, underserved and forgotten people are depending on us.

How:
We need one hundred people across the country to commit to walking one mile on this day, and to raise at least $300.00 in sponsorship from friends, family, co-workers, neighbors, etc. Participants can choose where to walk--it can be the park, the mall the neighborhood--anywhere you choose. The first 100 participants to raise at least $300 will receive a commemorative T-Shirt.

To register, simply e-mail your intention to participate at paul@portlight.org

Check the Portlight featured Weather Underground Blog regularly for updates!

The Honor Walk Sponsor Form available here will help you keep track of funds and pledges:
http://www.portlight.org/images/walkerform.pdf

Portlight's Paul Timmons on the Barometer Bob Show Thursday night
Portlight's Paul Timmons will be appearing live this Thursday at 8pm EDT on the Barometer Bob Show, an Internet radio show that I have appeared on several times in the past. Be sure to catch his discussion of how Portlight got started, where they're going, and what's new!

Next post
I'll have a new post on Wednesday, when I'll discuss how the recent intensification of El Niño may affect winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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I'll be right back. I have to check MY MAIL!
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Halloween face mask??
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Quoting Patrap:






Caution: Never pull nose hairs. It is painful and could cause an infection.



BWAA HAAA HA HA. Thanks, Pat. Think I'll pass. Look at these reviews! All 1 star. I'm gonna' get banned, chortle, hiccup; heck I won't be on tomorrow anyway.

doesnt work period! disappointed
Reviewer: djp from los angeles, california 2009-04-04

it does not work enough said. Hope I can get my money back!

My weed whacker is more gentle!
Reviewer: Woody Weedpuller 2008-08-30

It was worth just reading the above critique. Sure wish I was a fly on the wall. Nose trimmer hanging in mid air. Hoooweeee!

professional nose trimmer
Reviewer: ss 2008-02-10

i was extremely disappointed in the tweezerman prof. nose hair trimmer. after trying several times, i gave up and returned to my battery trimmer. the tweezerman did not CUT! i do NOT recommend it for anyone. i intend to return it immediately.

Worst Nose Hair Trimmer
Reviewer: John 2007-04-10

This was my very first nose hair trimmer. And I have to admit it was the worst experience I had ever had. Becasue I stuck the tool inside my nose and ohh mann did it pull like 16 hairs or so and I was left with tears. Also there were times when I finally learned how to use it, but the blades were so dull that it left the tool hanging on the hair, which hurts. So I would have to rate this item 0 out of 5 stars.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm off to work, Stay safe all.
Cya's in about 9hrs.


Nite Aussie
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Wow a snortn clinc......your really going to be busy tomorrow.......LOL

ROFLMAO. Tampa, you are on a roll tonight. Glad to see you guys take turns.
BTW, I'm not medical. I'll just be helping with the lines...of people.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
I'm off to work, Stay safe all.
Cya's in about 9hrs.


Have a good one Auz
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I'm off to work, Stay safe all.
Cya's in about 9hrs.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
442. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Weather Advisory No. 03
TROPICAL STORM (Pre-Santi)
Issued at 11:00 a.m PhST, 28 October 2009
===============================================

The Tropical Storm (I'nt typhoon name MIRINAE) over the Pacific Ocean was estimated at 1,520 km East of Central Luzon (16.2°N 138.5°E) with maximum sustained winds of 105 km/h (55 kts) and gustiness of up to 135 km/h (75 kts). It is forecast to move West Northwest at 30 km/h.

This weather disturbance is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. It will not affect any part of the country within the next 36 hours.
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Quoting Grothar:


But it was the rest of the comments that got me laughing so hard, especially when the guy kept asking if "..that was a blog in the Gulf of Mexico and they all responded. Too funny. Don't tell me you didn't have a good laugh today, before you left us!!!

It was hilarious, and I can hardly believe Orca says even more funny people come back on in the off-season. I'm already falling behind on dreaded household paperwork/chores. I just have to learn to multitask better or find the Bloggers Anonymous group.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

LMAO.
Tampa, it's a flu MIST clinic.
I hope not to see anything worse than an old man's shnozz with white hairs growing out of it.
Oh my gosh, sorry Flood, Press, etc. etc.


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Quoting amd:


not necessarily. The forecast for weakening makes sense, especially if the storm expands and more of its circulation begins to interact with land earlier. According to that graph, I would expect the system to peak in intensity at around 3 pm on friday JST time, and then steadily weaken a half a category before final landfall. So in the case of the JTWC, it makes sense for them to have a cat 3 at 9 am, and then a strong cat 2 at landfall.

Since the waters are so warm in between the storm and the Philippines however, I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers are upped a category by this time tomorrow. JMHO


From JMA:
Current Analyses at 28/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity:Strong
Center position:
N16°20'(16.3°)
E137°40'(137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement:W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure: 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center:35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more: Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more: Wide 330km(180NM)

Saturday Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity:Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement:W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure: 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center: 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed:60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle: 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

LMAO.
Tampa, it's a flu MIST clinic.
I hope not to see anything worse than an old man's shnozz with white hairs growing out of it.
Oh my gosh, sorry Flood, Press, etc. etc.






Caution: Never pull nose hairs. It is painful and could cause an infection.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129805
Way behind and it's time for bed.

Have had plenty of thoughts, but good to see Inyo around.

One of the most level-headed bloggers you will find based on my experience.

Goodnight.
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Quoting Floodman:


You make a good point, but kids with fever can still get iup and get online...the issue here is that just a little too much usage will crash the whole thing...there is only so much load balancing that can be done when you get to that point. I did some "shade tree" IT work for a cheap guy some years ago and told him that he could only support x number of users in his office; he didn't listen and called me on my regular job one morning frantic that his network had gone down... he'd doubled his users and while hadn't gone down, it slowed to the point where the difference was negligible


The big ISPs can do major load balancing if they need to and also limit bandwidth if necessary to the user. When working with a school system where students had free internet access in dorms rooms (high school), on a 128k circuit there were never bandwidth problems once I stopped peer to peer. Granted. the numbers are exponentially larger, (kind of like political pools) I just find it hard to believe the internet can't handle it. jmo
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

LMAO.
Tampa, it's a flu MIST clinic.
I hope not to see anything worse than an old man's shnozz with white hairs growing out of it.
Oh my gosh, sorry Flood, Press, etc. etc.


Wow a snortn clinc......your really going to be busy tomorrow.......LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting TampaSpin:


Wow have i heard that before in this house.....Wife says all the time "YOU should try having a baby....You have no pain tolerance". I tell her i do so. Just fix my drink your bring me with a little more Alchol and i can tolerate more pain. I get the crossed eyed look when i say they tho....ain't figured it out yet!


Tampa, you could banned for that! I mean from your house. lol Never happened to me, of course.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Need i ask where your putting the shots for the flu shots your giving tomorrow......i haven't taken one this year yet..are you going to be seeing bare arms or bare other....LOL

LMAO.
Tampa, it's a flu MIST clinic.
I hope not to see anything worse than an old man's shnozz with white hairs growing out of it.
Oh my gosh, sorry Flood, Press, etc. etc.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL not quite how I meant that. Just how I am when I'm sick. Aren't of us guys whiners when we're sick? Normal cuddles with LOML are just that, normal.


Wow have i heard that before in this house.....Wife says all the time "YOU should try having a baby....You have no pain tolerance". I tell her i do so. Just fix my drink your bring me with a little more Alchol and i can tolerate more pain. I get the crossed eyed look when i say they tho....ain't figured it out yet!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

LMAO. Grothar, you would not believe how hard it was to hold myself back when "Press In Drag" was re-posted. I'm fairly certain commenting on that is what got me banned and in the WU Inappropriate Hall of Shame. (Note to self: buy more duct tape. I raided the hurricane supplies to tape up my mouth and typing fingers.)


But it was the rest of the comments that got me laughing so hard, especially when the guy kept asking if "..that was a blog in the Gulf of Mexico and they all responded. Too funny. Don't tell me you didn't have a good laugh today, before you left us!!!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129805
OKay, timte for more meds and bed...g'night y'all...play nice!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry my wife wanted to use the pc to chat with her family in the Philippines. I have been there 3 times for a total of 6 months, great place to live but very hard to travel around and even worse when its raining, it floods very quickly.


Aussie, do you know if the Philippine goverment uses the same system of Categories for typhoons as Australia or do they use the Saffir-Simpson. If I am correct, your method is slightly than the the U.S.
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Quoting Grothar:


Ah, come on Awake, don't play the innocent, you were having as much fun as the rest of us. It actually made my day and put me in a good mood. To be able to laugh with stangers is quite an accomplishment. The blog was the most fun today and I was sorry I had to be gone so long.

LMAO. Grothar, you would not believe how hard it was to hold myself back when "Press In Drag" was re-posted. I'm fairly certain commenting on that is what got me banned and in the WU Inappropriate Hall of Shame. (Note to self: buy more duct tape. I raided the hurricane supplies to tape up my mouth and typing fingers.)
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Quoting cherubangelfish:


Sorry that you are cuddle deficient.


LOL not quite how I meant that. Just how I am when I'm sick. Aren't of us guys whiners when we're sick? Normal cuddles with LOML are just that, normal.
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Looke pretty healthy to me.
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424. amd
Quoting AussieStorm:


Looking at the below image, it weakens way to early for land interaction to have any effect.


not necessarily. The forecast for weakening makes sense, especially if the storm expands and more of its circulation begins to interact with land earlier. According to that graph, I would expect the system to peak in intensity at around 3 pm on friday JST time, and then steadily weaken a half a category before final landfall. So in the case of the JTWC, it makes sense for them to have a cat 3 at 9 am, and then a strong cat 2 at landfall.

Since the waters are so warm in between the storm and the Philippines however, I wouldn't be surprised if those numbers are upped a category by this time tomorrow. JMHO
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I'm dangerous now that I've learned how to link here:

S.F. Bridge/Snapped Cable Mess

Flood, thank you again for answering all my questions.


Dear, you are more than welcome!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Whoops, sorry to be redundant!
I type fast but take too long editing myself.


Need i ask where your putting the shots for the flu shots your giving tomorrow......i haven't taken one this year yet..are you going to be seeing bare arms or bare other....LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting PcolaDan:


Little far fetched if you ask me. (yea I know no one did) If so many people are home because of the flu, we have more serious problems than internet bandwidth. More importantly IMO, if it were my kids home sick with the flu (mine are grown, so hypothetical) they would be in bed most of the time getting well, not playing games or watching videos online.
p.s. When kids are really sick, they tend to of this of their own accord anyways, at least my kids did. They just wanted to cuddle and be coddled. (kinda like me now) :)


You make a good point, but kids with fever can still get iup and get online...the issue here is that just a little too much usage will crash the whole thing...there is only so much load balancing that can be done when you get to that point. I did some "shade tree" IT work for a cheap guy some years ago and told him that he could only support x number of users in his office; he didn't listen and called me on my regular job one morning frantic that his network had gone down... he'd doubled his users and while hadn't gone down, it slowed to the point where the difference was negligible
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
407. TampaSpin 3:15 AM GMT on October 28, 2009
Quoting Grothar:
Does anyone know why the rest of the others are not on tonight. Hope they didn't get banned from this morning. Not that you people are not good company. lol Just wondering.

What happened this morning.


Tampa, Grothar, T-Dude was a little worried about post #206 but it's still there, yippee, it's a good one. If you didn't catch it, read back to see what precedes it to get context (though I think Tampa may have been around.)
Nobody got too out of line that I know of, we're ALL ban-shy at this point.
That upside-down typing is driving me...bad words.


If Admin was to ban someone for that post......they would be nuts....but, then again i got banned for posting a link for mixed drinks calling it Troll Juice......So who knows.........LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
407. TampaSpin 3:15 AM GMT on October 28, 2009
Quoting Grothar:
Does anyone know why the rest of the others are not on tonight. Hope they didn't get banned from this morning. Not that you people are not good company. lol Just wondering.

What happened this morning.


Tampa, Grothar, T-Dude was a little worried about post #206 but it's still there, yippee, it's a good one. If you didn't catch it, read back to see what precedes it to get context (though I think Tampa may have been around.)
Nobody got too out of line that I know of, we're ALL ban-shy at this point.
That upside-down typing is driving me...bad words.


Ah, come on Awake, don't play the innocent, you were having as much fun as the rest of us. It actually made my day and put me in a good mood. To be able to laugh with stangers is quite an accomplishment. The blog was the most fun today and I was sorry I had to be gone so long.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Little far fetched if you ask me. (yea I know no one did) If so many people are home because of the flu, we have more serious problems than internet bandwidth. More importantly IMO, if it were my kids home sick with the flu (mine are grown, so hypothetical) they would be in bed most of the time getting well, not playing games or watching videos online.
p.s. When kids are really sick, they tend to of this of their own accord anyways, at least my kids did. They just wanted to cuddle and be coddled. (kinda like me now) :)


When my son had H1N1 last spring, he slept off and on all day. I was the one on the internet trying to figure out if I should take him to the ER or not.

As for the weather, I am keeping my eyes peeled for stalling fronts.

Sorry that you are cuddle deficient.
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Whoops, sorry to be redundant!
I type fast but take too long editing myself.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I have no idea why its ment to weaken before it makes landfall. High SST which go deep. Alot of energy for rapid intensification, Low-medium shear. So I have no idea why. anyone else has any thoughts on this?


I have been looking and I do not see what would weaken it that much. Looks like quite a healthy system. amd just gave a good analysis in post #410. I shall look further.

P.S. What gave away I wasn't from here, my British syntax, perhaps?
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Quoting amd:


Land interaction before landfall with the Philippines could cause some weakening, but my concern with the forecast is that the storm may peak at quite a bit higher than 95-100 kts. Winds are at 75 kts now (some dvorak calculations have the winds closer to 90 kts), and I think it is possible the storm may peak at a cat 4 due to high sst and low shear.

Also, concerning the upcoming winter, with the El Nino steadily increasing (at least for now), and the Nino 4 region having even higher anomalies than the Nino 3.4 region cited by Dr. Masters, I suspect there will be plenty of cold weather along much of the east coast and south.



Looking at the below image, it weakens way to early for land interaction to have any effect.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
407. TampaSpin 3:15 AM GMT on October 28, 2009
Quoting Grothar:
Does anyone know why the rest of the others are not on tonight. Hope they didn't get banned from this morning. Not that you people are not good company. lol Just wondering.

What happened this morning.


Tampa, Grothar, T-Dude was a little worried about post #206 but it's still there, yippee, it's a good one. If you didn't catch it, read back to see what precedes it to get context (though I think Tampa may have been around.)
Nobody got too out of line that I know of, we're ALL ban-shy at this point.
That upside-down typing is driving me...bad words.
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Quoting Grothar:


Took you long enough to answer. I know I am a day behind. By the way still working on your GMT=UT. Just think of the fun I have had in my life. I have adjusted my watch so many times the grooves have disappeard. I asked where you lived, because you had mentioned earlier about the Philippines. Every live there. Beautiful place friendly people.

Sorry my wife wanted to use the pc to chat with her family in the Philippines. I have been there 3 times for a total of 6 months, great place to live but very hard to travel around and even worse when its raining, it floods very quickly.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting TampaSpin:


What happened this morning.


More laughs than one deserves. tornadodude was on. Need I say more. Ask AwakeinMaryland. It was all too funny. The lad should forget meteorology and go into comedy. The others were all in top form. I got in a few good ones, but the fear of the administration got to me and I quietly faded.
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410. amd
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have no idea why its ment to weaken before it makes landfall. High SST which go deep. Alot of energy for rapid intensification, Low-medium shear. So I have no idea why. anyone else has any thoughts on this?


Land interaction before landfall with the Philippines could cause some weakening, but my concern with the forecast is that the storm may peak at quite a bit higher than 95-100 kts. Winds are at 75 kts now (some dvorak calculations have the winds closer to 90 kts), and I think it is possible the storm may peak at a cat 4 due to high sst and low shear.

Also, concerning the upcoming winter, with the El Nino steadily increasing (at least for now), and the Nino 4 region having even higher anomalies than the Nino 3.4 region cited by Dr. Masters, I suspect there will be plenty of cold weather along much of the east coast and south.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

I am in Sydney Australia


Took you long enough to answer. I know I am a day behind. By the way still working on your GMT=UT. Just think of the fun I have had in my life. I have adjusted my watch so many times the grooves have disappeard. I asked where you lived, because you had mentioned earlier about the Philippines. Every live there. Beautiful place friendly people.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Aussie:

The Philippines Area of Responsibility begins at 135E south of 25N

I actually answered my own question but thanks anyways.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting Grothar:
Does anyone know why the rest of the others are not on tonight. Hope they didn't get banned from this morning. Not that you people are not good company. lol Just wondering.


What happened this morning.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting Grothar:


Do they know what will cause it to weaken before striking the Philippines?

I have no idea why its ment to weaken before it makes landfall. High SST which go deep. Alot of energy for rapid intensification, Low-medium shear. So I have no idea why. anyone else has any thoughts on this?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
I'm dangerous now that I've learned how to link here:

S.F. Bridge/Snapped Cable Mess

Flood, thank you again for answering all my questions.
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Does anyone know why the rest of the others are not on tonight. Hope they didn't get banned from this morning. Not that you people are not good company. lol Just wondering.
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Quoting Floodman:


Well, we'll see what happens...depends on positioning of the polar jet. I'd love to see what Texas looks like under 12" of snow...LOL


You remember the Thanksgiving day ICE STORM in Dallas when the Cowboys was playing. Don't remember what year it was but, i do remember the bone head play the one Cowboy made in the game by touching a ball in the endzone on a punt........LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting Grothar:


Born on Long Island, NY. Lived in Norway, Sweden, Switzerland Germany and Great Britain.
Also lived in other countries but for only short periods of time. My home has been South Florida for many years. You live in what country now?

I am in Sydney Australia
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting Floodman:


Worked like a charm...and the premise of the article is correct...


Little far fetched if you ask me. (yea I know no one did) If so many people are home because of the flu, we have more serious problems than internet bandwidth. More importantly IMO, if it were my kids home sick with the flu (mine are grown, so hypothetical) they would be in bed most of the time getting well, not playing games or watching videos online.
p.s. When kids are really sick, they tend to of this of their own accord anyways, at least my kids did. They just wanted to cuddle and be coddled. (kinda like me now) :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


Well, we'll see what happens...depends on positioning of the polar jet. I'd love to see what Texas looks like under 12" of snow...LOL


what is the most snow you have ever gotten where you are?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

That is a good Alice (Dilbert)!
VoicePulse, but yea, same deal as Vonage.
Might not be all bad. If I got rid of cell phone, work couldn't reach me. :)


You've got to love Alice...the pointy haored boss is too close to the truth to be confortable for some as well..."robust incoherence" and all that...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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