A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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677. Bonedog
2:07 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
1454 launch now tentative
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
676. mikatnight
2:05 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Good posts Boondog. They're showing up at about the same time I'm hearing of it on nasatv. Very quick.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
675. NewBdoBdo
2:03 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
I have a question for anyone who wants to answer in Post 605 I read this: "The two recent warm years, both 1998 and 2005, were El Nino years."

Maybe this is a stupid question but If 2005 was an El Nino year why did we have so many storms? We are in an El Nino year and I thought this decreased Atlantic storms..I am still learning.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
674. IKE
2:02 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
673. Bonedog
2:01 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
15-20 minute weather window (if verified) in about 50 minutes

now everyone is keeping their fingers crossed.

helos will be refueled in the time frame of this weather no go and be operational by the new weather window.

still no official word from flight if they will go with the new window.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
672. mikatnight
1:59 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Quoting Bonedog:
5 min standby for weather recon

no more talk about the frieghter. Now a stupid cloud is holding us up.


A complicated machine and procedure. What did they say during Apollo, even if 99.9% of everything goes right, it would still mean about 10,000 other things went wrong?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
671. Magicchaos
1:59 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Doppler Radar still indicating a waterspout 30 miles west-southwest of Panama City moving north at 29 MPH(25 KTS)
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
670. Bonedog
1:55 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
I think this might be pushed to wednesday. Helos reporting low fuel now need to refuel.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
669. Bonedog
1:54 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
5 min standby for weather recon

no more talk about the frieghter. Now a stupid cloud is holding us up.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
668. Bonedog
1:53 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
waiting on aircraft report now
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
667. mikatnight
1:53 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Quoting Bonedog:
weather NO GO now


They're gonna have to reset to Wednesday I bet.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
666. mikatnight
1:51 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Quoting Bonedog:
back to 4:00 minutes and holding.

recycling computer systems

they are taking zero chances with this other than the frighter target practice LOL


No kidding. What's the price tag on this, 450m?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
665. Bonedog
1:50 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
weather NO GO now
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
664. Bonedog
1:48 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
back to 4:00 minutes and holding.

recycling computer systems

they are taking zero chances with this other than the frighter target practice LOL
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
663. mikatnight
1:46 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Quoting Bonedog:
mik you are right. range control is getting their ass chewed out right now I bet.

9:49 is the new launch time. They are going foward even with the ship in the box.


Good deal.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
662. Bonedog
1:46 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
nice nose cone down looking camera angle, hopefully it lasts until splashdown. would be a cool shot
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
661. Bonedog
1:45 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
T minus 3:59:59 and counting......
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
660. Magicchaos
1:44 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Doppler Radar indicating a waterspout about 30-35 miles west-southwest of Panama City moving north at about 30 MPH.
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
659. Bonedog
1:43 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
mik you are right. range control is getting their ass chewed out right now I bet.

9:49 is the new launch time. They are going foward even with the ship in the box.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
658. Bonedog
1:42 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
guess they figure the ship is less important then the launch LOL

new resume time is 13:45 with a launch at 13:49 =)

Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
657. mikatnight
1:41 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Someone's going to catch hell over that ship...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
656. Bonedog
1:40 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
yes mik it is.


they have a range go now BUT they cant restart the coundown computer. LOL

they want go NOW due to weather
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
655. mikatnight
1:37 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
That is a funky looking spacecraft ain't it Boondog? I first saw it on a tour of KSC for the STS-126 launch last Dec. Wih I was there for this one - bound to be spectacular.

UPDATE
There's a cargo ship in the "danger box" - declaring a NOGO for now...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
654. Bonedog
1:37 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
13.1.35.0 gmt resume countdown

ten minute hold

23.45z presumed launch

sorry, getting the chater off the coms as it comes in.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
653. Orcasystems
1:36 PM GMT on October 27, 2009


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
652. Bonedog
1:35 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
.
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
651. Bonedog
1:35 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
double post =(
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
650. Magicchaos
1:34 PM GMT on October 27, 2009


Tornado Watch 776 issued until 6:00EDT(2200UTC)
Member Since: April 3, 2009 Posts: 107 Comments: 382
649. Bonedog
1:34 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
NO GO!!!! NO GO!!!! NO GO!!!!

CARGO SHIP DOWN RANGE FOR THE NEXT 90 MINUTES



what the hell was harbor pilots thinking!!!
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
648. Bonedog
1:29 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
green for tropo =)

its a go
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
647. mikatnight
1:29 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
639. ya know, i was thinking the same thing when i realized the GLDH reintensified to a hurricane after passing over North Carolina and stayed a hurricane that far north in the Atlantic!

of course, the world will never know!


Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the Labor Day Hurricane still the most powerful TC in recorded history (via pressure) to ever make landfall anywhere on earth?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
646. Bonedog
1:27 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
still a weather hold

planes flying around checking tropoelectrification parameters
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
645. Bonedog
1:26 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
awsome shot of atlantis and aries on the pads on tv right now
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
644. Bonedog
1:25 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
zero time 9:44 now
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
643. Bonedog
1:24 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
cord away
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
642. Bonedog
1:23 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Idon't know guys and gals looks top heavy to me =(

Hoping for a sucessful test but just looks top heavy. Like once the payload gets up there the rotational pivot point is above the first stage booster segment. Meaning any thrust loss in any axis would cause a loss of attitude control. Am I right? From what I understand there is no thrust vectoring its basically light the fire and hang on. Correct?

Watching it on NASA TV even though it says educational right now.

Keeping my fingers crossed.

LOL mission update.. cord holding nose cone sheeth is stuck, might have to "cut the cord" their words not mine
Member Since: July 14, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 7418
641. mikatnight
1:21 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Probe cover has been removed, but is caught on something, but no big deal apparently...

Flight poll...everyone says ready.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
640. pearlandaggie
1:21 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
639. ya know, i was thinking the same thing when i realized the GLDH reintensified to a hurricane after passing over North Carolina and stayed a hurricane that far north in the Atlantic!

of course, the world will never know!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
639. mikatnight
1:16 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
yep...that was the year...weird coincidence...


look at how far north in the Atlantic that storm stayed a hurricane...wow


Wonder what '35 was as far as ocean temps, el nino, la nina, etc...?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
638. mikatnight
1:14 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Quoting pearlandaggie:
634. wasn't that also the year for the Great Labor Day hurricane?


Yesindeedy.

Now talking about a "slight adjustment" in liftoff time...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
637. pearlandaggie
1:12 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
yep...that was the year...weird coincidence...


look at how far north in the Atlantic that storm stayed a hurricane...wow
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
636. mikatnight
1:11 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Sounds like they're comfortable with the load calculations based on UL winds. Still go for a 9:24am launch...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
635. pearlandaggie
1:10 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
634. wasn't that also the year for the Great Labor Day hurricane?
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
634. mikatnight
1:06 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Looking at the track for that '35 storm. Downright weird...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
633. weathermanwannabe
1:02 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Good Morning from the Florida Big Bend. Nasty cells of t-storms head towards the FL Panhandle this morning from off-shore. Keep alert in the Panhandle and Big Bend today for possible tornadoes (keep your NOAA radios handy) as some waterspouts have already been seen offshore of Destin this morning.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8715
632. mikatnight
12:54 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
They don't want the "5-hole probe" (that is what they're saying right?) to get wet. Hoping to beat the approaching shower...


Ike, are you able to see launches from your location?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
631. IKE
12:49 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
I'm so bored I went back to the year 1900. There's been no hurricane to strike the USA west of the state of Florida in November.


1935 had hurricane 6 hit Florida in November...


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
630. mikatnight
12:47 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Sounds like the only real issue with the launch is the concern over upper-level winds. Still, they're talking about taking the probe cover off within the next 15 minutes...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
629. mikatnight
12:38 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
I just looked this up at noaa, should have posted it last night when the subject first came up:

(3) When did the earliest and latest hurricanes occur? The hurricane season is defined as June 1 through November 30. The earliest observed hurricane in a year in the Atlantic was on March 7, 1908, while the latest observed hurricane was on December 31, 1954, the second “Alice” of that year which persisted as a hurricane until January 5, 1955. Zeta of 2005 was the second latest tropical cyclone to form, just six hours ahead of Alice 1954. The earliest hurricane to strike the United States was Alma which struck northwest Florida on June 9, 1966. The latest hurricane to strike the United States was late on November 30, 1925 near Tampa, Florida.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
628. IKE
12:35 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Hurricane Kate in 1985 was the only hurricane to hit the USA in November, going back to 1950...1 in 60 years....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
627. mikatnight
12:23 PM GMT on October 27, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Interesting fact...although not that surprising....there has been no hurricane or tropical storm to strike the USA in November this decade.


Morning Ike, I love hurricane history, tell us more...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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