A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pearlandaggie:
274. probably due to one of those pesky pseudo-thermal inversions, right? LOL


ןoן ¡¡ʎןǝsıɔǝɹd
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting pearlandaggie:
269. well, at least mine had a nasty discontinuity in it! LOL

Are you still talking about this: Down she goes.... (#252)

Thanks for "windy", etc. graphs, btw.
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274. probably due to one of those pesky pseudo-thermal inversions, right? LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
272. what's your excuse? a pseudo-thermal inversion? or a virtual solenoidal calamity? hehehe


haha I blew my prediction for this hurricane season because the pseudo-thermal-stratification was miscalculated LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
272. what's your excuse? a pseudo-thermal inversion? or a virtual solenoidal calamity? hehehe
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
269. well, at least mine had a nasty discontinuity in it! LOL


LOL yeah
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Can someone please post the long range model runs of the gfs and ecmwf showing development next week. Thak You!
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269. well, at least mine had a nasty discontinuity in it! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:

I blew my forecast because the absolute molecular discontinuity was miscalculated or overlooked.



LOL

I blew a .15% because......

jk
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting JupiterFL:


Oh well...at least its a she.
lol.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21492

I blew my forecast because the absolute molecular discontinuity was miscalculated or overlooked.

Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I caught that...and I'm a granny.
Is everyone else dead or afraid, very afraid...


1 for afraid haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


That's a bit bold. Considering all the long range models are in a tangled mess...For all we know, it could be well below normal starting on Halloween(keeping my fingers crossed for that solution to win out).

Any meteorologist boldly proclaiming no end in sight to this pattern just might be wrong...Dead wrong! And if what he said panned out, that would be totally 100% unheard of and unprecedented!!!!!!!
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Oh well...at least its a she.


I caught that...and I'm a granny.
Is everyone else dead or afraid, very afraid...
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Cold with snow with high chance of flooding in spring. Again.
Say, look T-Dude, see post after yours. There's heavy weather action on the blog, with chances for real damage, so I'll have to duct tape my mouth, er, fingers, for awhile.

254. btwntx08 If you keep power, pls. keep sending info and thanks.

Anyone know, are Patrap & Presslord off doing good deeds?


Thanks, and yes, those are intense storms!

not sure where they are, havent seen them all day :/
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:
So, what is everyone's opinion on how the winter might be for northern Indiana? (West Lafayette)

Cold with snow with high chance of flooding in spring. Again.
Say, look T-Dude, see post after yours. There's heavy weather action on the blog, with chances for real damage, so I'll have to duct tape my mouth, er, fingers, for awhile.

254. btwntx08 If you keep power, pls. keep sending info and thanks.

Anyone know, are Patrap & Presslord off doing good deeds?
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Quoting tornadofan:


Rookie mistake - don't sweat it.


Well, did you check out Orca's link?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Corpus Christi gusts reported on SPC. 81 mph recorded at NAS with the frontal passage.



that's a bit on the windy side...
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Quoting tornadodude:
Well guys, I blew my prediction for this hurricane season because the pseudo-thermal-stratification was miscalculated LOL


Rookie mistake - don't sweat it.
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Quoting Grothar:


Very good analysis and quite valid. Also, one other note. It is very unusual for volcanoes, even in a chain, to be caused by the same magma chamber. One often assumes that looking at rows of volcanoes that they are all from one chamber, but that is hardly, if ever, the case. This another reason scientists are doubtful. Many scientists debunked the theory of a single chamber under an area as vast as Yellowstone, until it was studied and proven to be the largest caldera yet discovered.

ok i wasn't going to comment but what the hay!

the earth needs to be looked at the same way a human body is looked at. it has veins and nerves that are all connected to one another. this earth is whole and what occurs at point A is connected to point B. A and B are not the same but connected! Your telling me if something was to occur in one place it has no cause/effect in another? everyone is entitled to their own opinion and i do not wish to argue with either of you.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1649
Well guys, I blew my prediction for this hurricane season because the pseudo-thermal-stratification was miscalculated LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting flsky:
... El Nino expected to bring an increased chance of above normal
rainfall and severe weather across central Florida this upcoming
winter and early Spring...




Any idea when all this is supposed to shake down? We're currently experiencing the exact opposite. Record breaking heat, way below normal rainfall and very little in the way of cloudiness. Local MET said this morning, no end in sight for at least the next 7 days.
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So, what is everyone's opinion on how the winter might be for northern Indiana? (West Lafayette)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting TampaSpin:


Down she goes....


Oh well...at least its a she.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its 81 in Tampa now......BBL going on a 40mile bike ride.....You all be good! That includes you AMY!


have fun, later!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Its 81 in Tampa now......BBL going on a 40mile bike ride.....You all be good! That includes you AMY!
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Tampa...you better delete that word right now!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting NRAamy:
hmm, not much good news is there?

I just saved a ton on my auto insurance by switching to Geico!



Was the lizards name f-l-x.....lol...j/k AMY
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Quoting tornadodude:


hmm, not much good news is there?


Nope the market has went up for no reason other than the buy in money from the TARP funds......The TARP money was the reason for the increase in the market going up...
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hmm, not much good news is there?

I just saved a ton on my auto insurance by switching to Geico!

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Wish that was the reason.......Banks are still in trouble.....The Government won't let the banks foreclose on the other 1/2 of the foreclosers that are still out there....only 1/2 are foreclosed on ........most don't realize this....along with the Commericial Property about to take a major hit in foreclosers also.....


hmm, not much good news is there?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


is this because the Yankees won last night? LOL


Wish that was the reason.......Banks are still in trouble.....The Government won't let the banks foreclose on the other 1/2 of the foreclosers that are still out there....only 1/2 are foreclosed on ........most don't realize this....along with the Commericial Property about to take a major hit in foreclosers also.....
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Quoting F0XNEWS:


Well I think they are not connected in the sense you might think. The Yellowstone mega-hotspot is practically a mainstay in the Earth's regeneration process. The tectonic plates move faster than the upward flow of magma. Smaller non-super volcanoes seem to thrive better in a slower moving tectonic environment.

I've read that just 4-6 million years ago the hotspot has moved pretty fast eastward. That means the North American plate has pushed faster westward but not as much as it did 15-12 million years ago.

Perhaps the slowing down of the plate has caused Yellowstone to calm down while causing other volcanic sites on the same plate, like St Helens and Redoubt to become more unstable.

If that is the case, I'd rather a few smaller release points like the ones in the upper North West erupt rather than "The Big One" going off..


Very good analysis and quite valid. Also, one other note. It is very unusual for volcanoes, even in a chain, to be caused by the same magma chamber. One often assumes that looking at rows of volcanoes that they are all from one chamber, but that is hardly, if ever, the case. This another reason scientists are doubtful. Many scientists debunked the theory of a single chamber under an area as vast as Yellowstone, until it was studied and proven to be the largest caldera yet discovered.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26547
Quoting TampaSpin:


Down she goes....


is this because the Yankees won last night? LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, that was the magic word "akin" very poor choice of words on the part of the author. That would have to be one big chamber; as if the Yellowstone chamber isn't big enough on its own.


Yeah, pretty much a dumb word choice that is now subject to either interpretation since the author did nothing to clarify what he meant
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS and the GFS-ensembles show a decent upward phase in the Caribbean and GOM. The long-range forecast show nice upper level anticyclonic flow and upper level ridging dominating the Caribbean and portions of the GOM.


For this time of year? That's unheard of to see a Subtropical ridge anchored there...It's never happened!
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Down she goes....
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Quoting tornadodude:


The author worded this in an odd manner when he used "akin." It means either directly related, or comparable to.

But, maybe he chose "akin" to try to stir up some debate?


Yes, that was the magic word "akin" very poor choice of words on the part of the author. That would have to be one big chamber; as if the Yellowstone chamber isn't big enough on its own.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26547
232. TampaSpin 12:04 PM PDT on October 26, 2009

I'm still waiting for Amy's Halloween Pic...while the models update......could be a long wait.....LOL


it's on my blog....in the header...it's my purple hippo, all dressed up for Halloween...and no, she is NOT taking a dump on Hurricane Danny this time....
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya! Wait till it starts showing up on the shorter model runs....then it will get crazy....


uh oh...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
I'm still waiting for Amy's Halloween Pic...while the models update......could be a long wait.....LOL
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Quoting tornadodude:


calling all casters? LOL


Ya! Wait till it starts showing up on the shorter model runs....then it will get crazy....
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230. flsky
... El Nino expected to bring an increased chance of above normal
rainfall and severe weather across central Florida this upcoming
winter and early Spring...

Weak El Nino conditions developed during the Summer of 2009 and have
continued to persist over the equatorial Pacific Ocean waters. These
conditions are expected to continue into the upcoming winter season.
El Nino is characterized by an above normal warming in sea surface
temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific
Ocean. These changes can have profound effects on weather patterns
across North America... .and across Florida in particular.

The latest NOAA climate prediction center forecast is for these weak
El Nino conditions to continue and eventually strengthen into a
moderate El Nino event through the 2009 to 2010 winter season. Local
researchers have found a strong positive relationship between El
Nino and wintertime storminess and rainfall across Florida. The
chances for an unusually wet and stormy winter increase as Pacific
Ocean temperatures increase. El Nino conditions have a weaker link
to wintertime temperatures across Florida... but usually result in
slightly below average temperatures. However... chances for a severe
freeze are typically less likely than an average year.

With the greater storminess... can come an increased threat of severe
weather across central Florida... especially in regards to tornadoes.
The top two deadliest tornado outbreaks in Florida occurred during
El Nino events. The first occurred during the strongest El Nino to
impact the area in 1997 to 1998 where several EF3 tornadoes... with
winds up to 165 mph... moved across central Florida during the night
of February 22 to 23... killing 42 people mainly in the Kissimmee
area. The second outbreak occurred during the most recent and much
weaker El Nino to impact the region in 2006 to 2007. During this
event on the early morning hours of February 2 2007... two EF3
tornadoes... with winds up to 165 mph... pushed through Sumter...
lake... and Volusia counties killing 21 people.

The current El Nino is not expected to approach the magnitude of the
record breaking 1997 to 1998 event... but should be slightly stronger
than the 2006 to 2007 event. Even with this in mind... no two single
El Nino events are exactly alike and while it is difficult to
determine exactly how much and where severe weather will occur... the
best course of action is to have a preparedness plan in place.
Ensure that you and your family know in advance where to shelter in
the event of a tornado and move there quickly if a warning is issued
for your area or severe weather becomes imminent. Your plan should
also include having a NOAA Weather Radio which broadcasts National
Weather Service warnings... watches... forecasts and other hazardous
information 24 hours a day. The ability of the radio to trigger tone
alerts can save lives... especially for overnight tornadoes when most
people are sleeping. In addition... it is suggested that you have a
backup method to receive weather alerts... such as using a text
message service to have warnings sent directly to your personal
cellular phone.
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Quoting Grothar:


I do not believe the article said that the magma chamber under Mt. St. Helen's and the one under Yellowstone were connected.


you are right I miss typed. the scientists don't believe it is there at all.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1649
Quoting Grothar:


I do not believe the article said that the magma chamber under Mt. St. Helen's and the one under Yellowstone were connected.


The author worded this in an odd manner when he used "akin." It means either directly related, or comparable to.

But, maybe he chose "akin" to try to stir up some debate?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i know, so why are the other scientist so sure that they are not connected? yes i know this is not a volcano blog!


I do not believe the article said that the magma chamber under Mt. St. Helen's and the one under Yellowstone were connected.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26547

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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