A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting mikatnight:


Hi Matt - I'm on and off sporadically. Just noticed your avitar %u2013 what in the world are you sitting on?


LOL well there is a statue of George Rogers Clark by the Wabash River in Vincennes, In, and it is about 15 feet tall, ha and I wanted a picture on it (:
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Good afternoon to all
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Quoting tornadodude:
Hey mikatnight, havent seen you in awhile, how ya doing?


Hi Matt - I'm on and off sporadically. Just noticed your avitar – what in the world are you sitting on?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting xcool:
hi all


hey scott, how are you?
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320. xcool
hi all
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting mikatnight:


Hi Grothar! I'm ok, just a little bummed-out from the licking Patrap's Saints put on our poor weak little Dolphins. Hope all's well with you...


I've had 6 season tickets to the Giants for more years than I care to count. How do you think I feel after last night. And the money for the new stadium and license fee!!!!! Don't even go there. Let's stick to the weather. Think anything will pop up in the Caribbean?
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Hey mikatnight, havent seen you in awhile, how ya doing?
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Quoting Grothar:


If Venus ever got populated, I would really like to see "their" Weather Blog. Talk about a carbon dioxide problem. How are you Mike??


Hi Grothar! I'm ok, just a little bummed-out from the licking Patrap's Saints put on our poor weak little Dolphins. Hope all's well with you...
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Worth the wait.


Hey, it only took me 20 minutes to post that one. I am really getting the hang of it now.
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Big news coming tomorrow! Check in often...
Link
Member Since: January 7, 2009 Posts: 119 Comments: 412
Quoting mikatnight:
Quoting FOXNEWS (#185):
And our sister planet, Venus, also is believed to share the same iron-nickel alloy core. Venus, like Earth, is littered with vulcanism, more so than Earth probably.

Many years ago, I read a book called "The Next Ten Thousand Years", where the author talked about the possibility of detonating several multiple warheads loaded with blue-green algae in the atmosphere of Venus with the intention of creating rain. The Venison atmosphere is supposedly composed almost entirely of CO2, and since BG algae eat CO2 and release oxygen (and are very tough, being found almost everywhere on earth including the cooling systems of nuclear reactors), the theory is it would eventually create the conditions necessary to make rain and thus cool the planet – creating another “earth-like” celestial body.


If Venus ever got populated, I would really like to see "their" Weather Blog. Talk about a carbon dioxide problem. How are you Mike??
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Quoting Grothar:


:P Here it is! WPAC TD 23

Worth the wait.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Grothar:


:P Here it is! WPAC TD 23


want a cookie? (: nice job!
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Tropical storm watch in effect...
Today
Mostly cloudy and windy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early in the morning...then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the morning...then shifting to the southwest with gusts to 45 mph in the afternoon. Highs around 83.
» ZIP Code Detail
Tonight
Mostly cloudy and breezy with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph in the evening. Lows around 77.
Wednesday through Thursday
Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Highs around 86. Lows around 77.
Thursday Night through Monday
Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in the upper 70s. Highs in the upper 80s.
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Quoting FOXNEWS (#185):
And our sister planet, Venus, also is believed to share the same iron-nickel alloy core. Venus, like Earth, is littered with vulcanism, more so than Earth probably.

Many years ago, I read a book called "The Next Ten Thousand Years", where the author talked about the possibility of detonating several multiple warheads loaded with blue-green algae in the atmosphere of Venus with the intention of creating rain. The Venison atmosphere is supposedly composed almost entirely of CO2, and since BG algae eat CO2 and release oxygen (and are very tough, being found almost everywhere on earth including the cooling systems of nuclear reactors), the theory is it would eventually create the conditions necessary to make rain and thus cool the planet – creating another “earth-like” celestial body.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052


:P Here it is! WPAC TD 23
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Received a note from Guam; they're not even breaking a sweat:

Looking at the graphic, we should start getting rain soon, it's still moving fast and should only be a tropical storm as it runs over us. Winds are about 50 knots, and hopefully will be past by the time I have to come home from work. Worst case scenario is it stalls right over us and drenches us as it gets stronger. I'm not even closing the storm shutters.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting IKE:


I see no development on the 12Z ECMWF, excluding a low out in the Atlantic. Not sure if it's tropical.

Ditto the 12Z GFS.

Who said there was development?


I said there was development.

I made the post about the ECMWF 00z run. The GFS long-range does show something in the southern Caribbean that migrates over to the EPAC.
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Quoting hydrus:
Thank You, Mom with cancer in Middle Tennessee, do not need any rough stuff...



youre welcome, my thoughts and prayers go out to you all
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Quoting tornadodude:


well I was looking at the SPC site, and they think there might be an outbreak in the southern plains/lower Mississippi ans Ohio valley's in a few days:

Thank You, Mom with cancer in Middle Tennessee, do not need any rough stuff...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20506
Quoting hydrus:
Have you heard anything about a severe weather outbreak late this week?


well I was looking at the SPC site, and they think there might be an outbreak in the southern plains/lower Mississippi and Ohio valley's in a few days:



ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260829
SPC AC 260829

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2009

VALID 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES NEWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY4-5 TIME FRAME.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE MS VALLEY WHERE DEEPENING OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NOTED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS THE SCNTRL
U.S...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS OK/TX DAY4...THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY DAY5
WHERE FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. IF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO IL/IND ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AS INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS
THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 10/26/2009

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296. Ditto.
Good to see your boots on the ground stateside, C-Teddy; saw your post re nondeployment at this time awhile back.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting tornadodude:


Hey, hope you enjoyed it!

looking forward to the pics!
Have you heard anything about a severe weather outbreak late this week?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20506
Tomorrow will be another adventure with the NWS
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I'll try once more. If the image does not post, you guys will have to wait until xcool gets out of school. My doctorate was obviously not in graphicology.
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Quoting Grothar:


You are not going to believe it, but I was looking for xcool to see if he were here. 1900Hurricane had to post the image for me this morning. But trust me, it is a great image of the Wpac TD. I can probably post the link, but at this point to embarrassed.

Ah, kismet. As for rest, no worries, I'm sure everyone appreciates links just fine.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
GOM and Caribbean looking interesting????
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hi all from Cape Canaveral Florida! Took a sick day to see this launch, first flight of the replacement for the space shuttle, the Ares I. 8:00 a.m EDT tomorrow I'll post pics!!


Hey, hope you enjoyed it!

looking forward to the pics!
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Hi all from Cape Canaveral Florida! Took a sick day to see this launch, first flight of the replacement for the space shuttle, the Ares I. 8:00 a.m EDT tomorrow I'll post pics!!
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
289. Grothar, calling xcool, SOS re posting graphics.


You are not going to believe it, but I was looking for xcool to see if he were here. 1900Hurricane had to post the image for me this morning. But trust me, it is a great image of the Wpac TD. I can probably post the link, but at this point to embarrassed.
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Why is the forecast sooo uncertain this week? All the models have their own pictures of what the weather will turn out.

Can't these mets see it's climatologically impossible for a subtropical ridge to build over us. This has got to be the worst day for the NWS.
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292. IKE
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
Can someone please post the long range model runs of the gfs and ecmwf showing development next week. Thak You!


I see no development on the 12Z ECMWF, excluding a low out in the Atlantic. Not sure if it's tropical.

Ditto the 12Z GFS.

Who said there was development?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
288. All comrades in crime seem to have reported in.

so far so good, havent seen Xcool all day
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289. Grothar, calling xcool, SOS re posting graphics.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
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Quoting PcolaDan:
TS 23 near Guam


Thank you. Still expected nearest Guam around 8 pm EDT? Haven't heard from friends there; possibly on call or battening down the hatches.

Add-on: And glad you're not banned, btw.
All comrades in crime seem to have reported in.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting pearlandaggie:
282. LMAO...."squints the eye, and makes the harelip"


hahaha this is too fun
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282. LMAO...."squints the eye, and makes the harelip"
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
276. well, soooooorrrrrrryyyyy! LOL i've had to put in an honest day's work for once! LOL


Hey, I did appreciate the graphs.
I think my husband would like me to try that honest work thing sometime, but I'm a sometimes silly servant.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
281. man, those islands sure look small from space! (especially with a swirling mass of clouds to the east!)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting HIEXPRESS:


Probably because you forgot to calibrate the Turboencabulator


or maybe because of Flibbertigibbet's?
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TS 23 near Guam

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
279. LOL...kind of like sending the newbie for a bucket of steam or a left-handed skyhook! LMAO
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:

I blew my forecast because the absolute molecular discontinuity was miscalculated or overlooked.



Probably because you forgot to calibrate the Turboencabulator
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276. well, soooooorrrrrrryyyyy! LOL i've had to put in an honest day's work for once! LOL

i'm a tad behind this afternoon....
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting pearlandaggie:
274. probably due to one of those pesky pseudo-thermal inversions, right? LOL


ןoן ¡¡ʎןǝsıɔǝɹd
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.