A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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5TH Coldest September of all time in OKC and Wichita Falls area. Global Warming???
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376. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FXPQ21 RJTD 261800
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TD 25
PSTN 261800UTC 13.7N 146.6E
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 30KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 12.7N 145.9E +002HPA +001KT
T=012 13.0N 144.5E 000HPA 000KT
T=018 13.8N 143.2E +002HPA +001KT
T=024 14.2N 141.2E +001HPA +002KT
T=030 14.7N 139.8E +003HPA +003KT
T=036 14.9N 138.4E +001HPA +003KT
T=042 15.1N 136.8E +003HPA +004KT
T=048 15.0N 135.1E +001HPA +004KT
T=054 14.9N 133.6E +003HPA +004KT
T=060 13.6N 132.1E -001HPA +004KT
T=066 13.6N 130.8E +001HPA +005KT
T=072 13.3N 129.3E -002HPA +005KT
T=078 13.2N 128.2E 000HPA +005KT
T=084 13.2N 127.1E -003HPA +005KT
T=090 13.2N 125.9E -001HPA +006KT
T=096 13.2N 124.7E -003HPA +006KT
T=102 13.0N 123.5E -001HPA +006KT
T=108 13.0N 122.3E -003HPA +005KT
T=114 12.9N 121.1E 000HPA +006KT
T=120 13.0N 119.8E -002HPA +005KT
T=126 13.0N 118.3E 000HPA +005KT
T=132 13.1N 117.0E -002HPA +007KT=

---
JMA don't see a crossing the equator in the future
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Quoting winter123:
wow... if it goes THAT far south, we may even have to watch out for a rare wpac-indian crossing storm.



found something, there's been like 10 in the past 25-30 years.
Link
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Statisticians reject global cooling
Some skeptics claim Earth is cooling despite contrary data

WASHINGTON - An analysis of global temperatures by independent statisticians shows the Earth is still warming and not cooling as some global warming skeptics are claiming.

The analysis was conducted at the request of The Associated Press to investigate the legitimacy of talk of a cooling trend that has been spreading on the Internet, fueled by some news reports, a new book and temperatures that have been cooler in a few recent years.
In short, it is not true, according to the statisticians who contributed to the AP analysis. The statisticians, reviewing two sets of temperature data, found no trend of falling temperatures over time.

2005 hottest year recorded

U.S. government data show the decade that ends in December will be the warmest in 130 years of record-keeping, and 2005 was the hottest year recorded.

The case that the Earth might be cooling partly stems from recent weather. Last year was cooler than previous years. It has been a while since the superhot years of 1998 and 2005. So is this a longer climate trend or just weather's normal ups and downs?

In a blind test, the AP gave temperature data to four independent statisticians and asked them to look for trends, without telling them what the numbers represented. The experts found no true temperature declines over time.
"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a microtrend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect," said John Grego, a professor of statistics at the University of South Carolina.

Yet the idea that things are cooling has been repeated in opinion columns, a BBC news story posted on the Drudge Report and in a new book by the authors of the best-seller "Freakonomics." Last week, a poll by the Pew Research Center found that only 57 percent of Americans now believe there is strong scientific evidence for global warming, down from 77 percent in 2006.

Global warming skeptics base their claims on an unusually hot year in 1998. Since then, they say, temperatures have dropped — thus, a cooling trend. But it is not that simple.

Temps rising once more

Since 1998, temperatures have dipped, soared, fallen again and are now rising once more. Records kept by the British meteorological office and satellite data used by climate skeptics still show 1998 as the hottest year. However, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA show 2005 has topped 1998. Published peer-reviewed scientific research generally cites temperatures measured by ground sensors, which are from NOAA, NASA and the British, more than the satellite data.

The recent Internet chatter about cooling led NOAA's climate data center to re-examine its temperature data. It found no cooling trend.
"The last 10 years are the warmest 10-year period of the modern record," said NOAA climate monitoring chief Deke Arndt. "Even if you analyze the trend during that 10 years, the trend is actually positive, which means warming."

The AP sent expert statisticians NOAA's year-to-year ground temperature changes over 130 years and the 30 years of satellite-measured temperatures preferred by skeptics and gathered by scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.

Statisticians who analyzed the data found a distinct decades-long upward trend in the numbers, but could not find a significant drop in the past 10 years in either data set. The ups and downs during the last decade repeat random variability in data as far back as 1880.
Saying there's a downward trend since 1998 is not scientifically legitimate, said David Peterson, a retired Duke University statistics professor and one of those analyzing the numbers.

Identifying a downward trend is a case of "people coming at the data with preconceived notions," said Peterson, author of the book "Why Did They Do That? An Introduction to Forensic Decision Analysis."

Satellite data tends to be cooler
One prominent skeptic said that to find the cooling trend, the 30 years of satellite temperatures must be used. The satellite data tends to be cooler than the ground data. Key to that is making sure that 1998 is part of the trend, he added.

What happened within the past 10 years or so is what counts, not the overall average, contends Don Easterbrook, a Western Washington University geology professor and global warming skeptic.

"I don't argue with you that the 10-year average for the past 10 years is higher than the previous 10 years," said Easterbrook, who has self-published some of his research. "We started the cooling trend after 1998. You're going to get a different line depending on which year you choose.

"Should not the actual temperature be higher now than it was in 1998?" Easterbrook asked. "We can play the numbers games."
That's the problem, some of the statisticians said.

Grego produced three charts to show how choosing a starting date can alter perceptions. Using the skeptics' satellite data beginning in 1998, there is a "mild downward trend," he said. But doing that is "deceptive."

Conflicting data analyses
The trend disappears if the analysis is begun in 1997. And it trends upward if you begin in 1999, he said.

Apart from the conflicting data analyses is the eyebrow-raising new book title from Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, "Super Freakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance."

A line in the book says: "Then there's this little-discussed fact about global warming: While the drumbeat of doom has grown louder over the past several years, the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased."

That led to a sharp rebuke from the Union of Concerned Scientists, which said the book mischaracterizes climate science with "distorted statistics."

Levitt, a University of Chicago economist, said he does not believe there is a cooling trend. He said the line was just an attempt to note the irony of a cool couple of years at a time of intense discussion of global warming. Levitt said he did not do any statistical analysis of temperatures but "eyeballed" the numbers and noticed 2005 was hotter than the last couple of years. Levitt said the "cooling" reference in the book title refers more to ideas about trying to cool the Earth artificially.

Moving averages over 10 years important
Statisticians say that in sizing up climate change, it's important to look at moving averages of about 10 years. They compare the average of 1999-2008 to the average of 2000-2009. In all data sets, 10-year moving averages have been higher in the last five years than in any previous years.

"To talk about global cooling at the end of the hottest decade the planet has experienced in many thousands of years is ridiculous," said Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist at the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University.
Ben Santer, a climate scientist at the Department of Energy's Lawrence Livermore National Lab, called it "a concerted strategy to obfuscate and generate confusion in the minds of the public and policy-makers" ahead of international climate talks in December in Copenhagen.

President Barack Obama weighed in on the topic Friday at the Massechusetts Institute of Technology. He said some opponents "make cynical claims that contradict the overwhelming scientific evidence when it comes to climate change, claims whose only purpose is to defeat or delay the change that we know is necessary."

Early this year, climate scientists in two peer-reviewed publications statistically analyzed recent years' temperatures against claims of cooling and found them invalid.
Not all skeptical scientists make the flat-out cooling argument.

"It pretty much depends on when you start," wrote John Christy, the Alabama atmospheric scientist who collects the satellite data that skeptics use. He said in an e-mail that looking back 31 years, temperatures have gone up nearly three-quarters of a degree Fahrenheit (four-tenths of a degree Celsius). The last dozen years have been flat, and temperatures over the last eight years have declined a bit, he wrote.

Oceans influence short-term weather
Oceans, which take longer to heat up and longer to cool, greatly influence short-term weather, causing temperatures to rise and fall temporarily on top of the overall steady warming trend, scientists say. The biggest example of that is El Nino.

El Nino, a temporary warming of part of the Pacific Ocean, usually spikes global temperatures, scientists say. The two recent warm years, both 1998 and 2005, were El Nino years. The flip side of El Nino is La Nina, which lowers temperatures. A La Nina bloomed last year and temperatures slipped a bit, but 2008 was still the ninth hottest in 130 years of NOAA records.

Of the 10 hottest years recorded by NOAA, eight have occurred since 2000, and after this year it will be nine because this year is on track to be the sixth-warmest on record.
The current El Nino is forecast to get stronger, which probably will pushing global temperatures even higher next year, scientists say. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt predicts 2010 may break a record, so a cooling trend "will be never talked about again."
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Nothing at the Surface...
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Quoting winter123:
wow... if it goes THAT far south, we may even have to watch out for a rare wpac-indian crossing storm.



Eh... I know there's more, I saw a list somewhere but can't find it. Here's Vamei... formed over the equator then crossed into the indian ocean.
Link
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Quoting reedzone:
Well I'm gonna work on my album, need to finish writing songs. pz everyone

I just hate the fact I get called a wishcaster for bashing the people who downcast storms lol... Interesting world we live in.


Reed i guess some would say they hope your song writing is better than your wishcasting...J/K man....good luck with your writing!

The area south of Cuba appears to be simply Divergence aloft. It will probably fade out soon as it appears to be doing now.
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370. xcool
IKE .good ;)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
still an observed cyclone in January of the next year if I remember


It was just in response to Reedzone saying the season ends on Nov. 30. The point is that a TC can form in the Atlantic Basin as late as the last day of the year. The storm I mentioned was originally thought to have formed on Jan 1st, but later analysis revealed it to have formed on Dec. 31st.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Zeta missed by a day if they do it by the date of formation
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367. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Severe Tropical Storm Lupit pressure is dropping again.. and is a speed devil

Data from Japan Metoerological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory for 21:00 PM UTC

At 6:00AM JST, Severe Tropical Storm Lupit (975 hPa) has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northeast at 45 knots.
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Well I'm gonna work on my album, need to finish writing songs. pz everyone

I just hate the fact I get called a wishcaster for bashing the people who downcast storms lol... Interesting world we live in.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
365. IKE
Quoting xcool:
IKE . warm temperature ?


Yup.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
364. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
still an observed cyclone in January of the next year if I remember
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wow... if it goes THAT far south, we may even have to watch out for a rare wpac-indian crossing storm.

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Quoting dolphingalrules:

just like you guys with all of those hurricanes this year....boohaaa













Don,t say that DolphinGal,some of the computer models actually do better with weather systems in the temperate latitudes then the tropics. But the weather has been anything but normal, the possibilities are endless...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20501
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
uh what happened to Zeta in your data mikat that went through new year's


Zeta formed earlier than Dec 31st.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
360. xcool
IKE . warm temperature ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
359. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
uh what happened to Zeta in your data mikat that went through new year's
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Quoting F0XNEWS:


haha..which part?

Miami needs a deep threat that can actually catch the ball.

Ted Ginn Jr. has effectively hurt the Dolphins more than helped them in his young career.

He's in his third year and he still can't catch the ball. He dropped the game winning touchdown against the Colts a few weeks ago. By the way that will probably be Chad Pennington's last great long pass of his career and Teddy dropped it.

He has one special teams TD I think from his rookie season. They drafted him for his special teams play.

He fumbled the playoffs away to the Ravens last year on a reverse.

Nobody respects him. They can play a deep zone safety on Ted Ginn on 3rd down and blitz 2 guys because he sucks at running routes and catching the rock.

Marino would have had that guy in tears if he was throwing to him, all red faced and mad.

Bye Bye Ted Ginn, you offically suck, as if you hadn't before.


i agree with this
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Quoting mikatnight:


The earliest observed storm was on March 7, 1908

The latest observed storm in the Atlantic Ocean was Dec: 31, 1954.


Zeta 2005?? Maybe I'm wrong but that did last till 2006 if I remember.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting 954FtLCane:

dude i respect forecasting but you are the ultimate wishcaster.... all season long you have been wishcasting beyond belief........uggggggg....
respect..., peace out


I didn't say a storm was going to hit anywhere, I always gave chances like everyone does. Sorry, not a wishcaster, just didn't do too well with the exception of Hurricane Bill this year. Most of my forecasts this year were inaccurate because it was hard forecasting when wind shear was tearing them apart. I gave ideas, maps, and information to back up my forecast, predictions. I was bashed for what I did, a wishcaster just says "a storm will hit somewhere and strengthen." I always gave possibilities because those possibilities were possible. Hurricane Bill was only one single day late from impacting the East Coast, had he gone slower, the northeast Conus could have had a classic East Coast Hurricane. Don't call me a wishcaster, I prove my points, I predicted Bill to turn away from the coast, but still affect New England, and it did so. I was called a Newcaster for that one, but it happened. I am going to college next year to learn more about weather patterns and steering. Said and done!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting reedzone:
Do you guys read the history of Hurricane Seasons? It ends November 30 every year, even with an El Nino, not when you say it ends, enough said!


The earliest observed storm was on March 7, 1908

The latest observed storm in the Atlantic Ocean was Dec: 31, 1954.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
354. IKE
6-10 day temps....




8-14 day temps....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
353. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


This map is a lie.. with errors in it. XD
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Quoting hydrus:
Reed, speaking of great November snow storms, check out The Great Appalachian snow storm of 1950. It was very, very, powerful. Just use Google.

just like you guys with all of those hurricanes this year....boohaaa













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351. xcool
9:33 PM GMT on October 26, 2009



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350. weatherbro
9:33 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting IKE:


I don't really see any significant cool down in the next 1-2 weeks in your area.

Fronts might make close to you but will wash out.

From the afternoon Melbourne discussion...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
311 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2009

...WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AGAIN...


This weather pattern is bazaar. What ever happened to the Halloween cool down forecasted by the models just a few days ago?
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1270
348. hydrus
9:30 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
You guys know the GFS shows a major East Coast Snowstorm on November 6th? Probably not gonna happen, but wow, wouldn't that be something?
Reed, speaking of great November snow storms, check out The Great Appalachian snow storm of 1950. It was very, very, powerful. Just use Google.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20501
347. Magicchaos
9:29 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Here's my local forecast for my area at 4:00PM for those of you interested.

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346. tornadodude
9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
alright, im out, time for dinner, and hopefully gonna find some pineapple upside down cake (:

later!
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345. xcool
9:28 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Grothar ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
344. IKE
9:27 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting weatherbro:


In Altamonte Springs...A suburb of Orlando.


I don't really see any significant cool down in the next 1-2 weeks in your area.

Fronts might come close to you but will wash out.

From the afternoon Melbourne discussion...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
311 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2009

...WARMER THAN NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AGAIN...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
343. reedzone
9:26 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
You guys know the GFS shows a major East Coast Snowstorm on November 6th? Probably not gonna happen, but wow, wouldn't that be something?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
341. tornadodude
9:24 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
Do you guys read the history of Hurricane Seasons? It ends November 30 every year, even with an El Nino, not when you say it ends, enough said!


/: ʇuıod ɐ ʇoƃ s,ǝɥ
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
340. reedzone
9:23 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Do you guys read the history of Hurricane Seasons? It ends November 30 every year, even with an El Nino, not when you say it ends, enough said!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
339. Grothar
9:23 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting xcool:








Hey, xcool. Look at post #294. Where were you when we need you to post those images?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25352
338. PcolaDan
9:22 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
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337. weatherbro
9:20 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Where do you live?


In Altamonte Springs...A suburb of Orlando.
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336. Cavin Rawlins
9:19 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting MayFL:
Weather456,

The trough near the Yucatan Channel is that the feature you predicted to head north?



Part of it.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
335. 954FtLCane
9:19 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting F0XNEWS:
Some of you can't be serious theorizing a Halloween Hurricane for Florida..can you?

Its over JVS, the season is over.... call ,me a downcaster but it's over
Member Since: September 30, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 108
334. xcool
9:18 PM GMT on October 26, 2009






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332. mikatnight
9:16 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting F0XNEWS:
Some of you can't be serious theorizing a Halloween Hurricane for Florida..can you?


Stranger things have happened, but I doubt it.
And I agree with your post (#326), but I'm hiding your post and ignoring any further discussion on the subject.
Think I'll become a Giants fan...what do think George?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
331. IKE
9:12 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Quoting weatherbro:
@Ike, when is our next coldfront? The models say one thing and then another...My greatest suspicion is how they come up with strengthening the subtropical ridge with such an active jet stream this time of year!

Will be get another mini-heatwave or are all the long-range models suffering from convective feedback?


Where do you live?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
329. beell
9:08 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Pretty interesting statistic from Dr.Master's blog post today.

The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date...
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16213
328. weatherbro
9:08 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
@Ike, when is our next coldfront? The models say one thing and then another...My greatest suspicion is how they come up with strengthening the subtropical ridge with such an active jet stream this time of year!

Will be get another mini-heatwave or are all the long-range models suffering from convective feedback?
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1270
327. Cavin Rawlins
9:08 PM GMT on October 26, 2009
Tropical Cyclones: Physics, Energetics and Mechanics
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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