A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tornadodude:


LOL thanks (:

hey guys


Boy TD, make one mistake on this blog and they never let you forget it................... remind you of a frat room? (:)((: When you do it upside down it comes out the same way.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25474
426. xcool
make movie in St. Tammany yay
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Quoting Grothar:
Hey, what is going on? Gott knocked on the website and it didn't have "Welcome back Grothar" on the top when I returned. Thought they threw me off permanently. Had to re-do all my settings.
WELCOME BACK GROTHAR
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
Quoting Grothar:
Hey, what is going on? Gott knocked on the website and it didn't have "Welcome back Grothar" on the top when I returned. Thought they threw me off permanently. Had to re-do all my settings.


weird, the site must be acting up tonight or something.

wouldnt surprise me if I were banned for posting upsidedown lol or smiling "backwards" (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Hey, what is going on? Gott knocked on the website and it didn't have "Welcome back Grothar" on the top when I returned. Thought they threw me off permanently. Had to re-do all my settings.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25474
Quoting pearlandaggie:
i think you were trying to link to your myphotos page instead of the actual image you've uploaded...just a guess :)

oh, i'm sorry...in honor of T-dude, it should have been (: LOL


LOL thanks (:

hey guys
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Crown Weather and Dr. Masters concur that next week all the right ingredients will be in the Western and central Carribean for a possible TC.
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406. what browser are you using?
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Photo's have to be approved prior to being able to link to them on the site :)

Edit, Wunderground photo's --
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Quoting Ossqss:
403, this is the properties of your failed pic. There is nothing there.

http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/myphotos.html?number=0&handle=WaterWitch11#select


I also tried that and it brought me to my own photo album.
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416. that's what i got, too...
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
403, this is the properties of your failed pic. There is nothing there.

http://www.wunderground.com/wximage/myphotos.html?number=0&handle=WaterWitch11#select
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i think you were trying to link to your myphotos page instead of the actual image you've uploaded...just a guess :)

oh, i'm sorry...in honor of T-dude, it should have been (: LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
414. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting WaterWitch11:


yes, it appears i have been. that's just terrible because i just figured out how to do it and i wanted to be able to post pictures of the winter to come here in CA!


Have you tried posting something from NOAA or another source you don't need a copyright? like notaccuweather?
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looks like your pictures work......
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
i think it was just my browser...i shut it down and restarted and everything appears okay for now...weird!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting WaterWitch11:


yes, it appears i have been. that's just terrible because i just figured out how to do it and i wanted to be able to post pictures of the winter to come here in CA!


Where is the picture..if its a picture on your computer...then no you can't unless you upload it to server somewhere... if its somewhere on the internet.. then you can use it.
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410. xcool


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i doubt they just banned your ability to post pictures...i think that action would be unprecedented on this blog (assuming they have the ability to do it)...

yeah, i think there's something going on with the website...or it's my browser...one of the two! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Post the link you are trying to show. Lets see if we can help out.
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


yes, it appears i have been. that's just terrible because i just figured out how to do it and i wanted to be able to post pictures of the winter to come here in CA!
Sometimes for some reason they don't post. Try to post something else.
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


this is a test. i think i've been banned from posting pictures.


yes, it appears i have been. that's just terrible because i just figured out how to do it and i wanted to be able to post pictures of the winter to come here in CA!
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1582


Dry air is almost gone.
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this is a test. i think i've been banned from posting pictures.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1582


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

There you go, facts and reliable sources.
You go, CI, show 'em how it's done! Greetings, btw.
Afternoon or good night , watching the blob in the Caribbean. Had lots of rain and gusty winds today but rain has stopped for now. Mosquitoes are eating us alive. LOL
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Quoting PcolaDan:
A site I've never seen before but maybe you have. I have it on Guam.

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Guam

Cool. Will pass on to buds, as needed.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
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34 days GMT remain of the 09 atl. hurr. season
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396. amd
a good breeze in Rota... (Island between Guam and Saipan)

Rota, Mariana Islands (Airport)
Updated: 12 min 52 sec ago
Heavy Rain Showers
77 F
Heavy Showers Rain Fog
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 75 F
Wind: 32 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 55 mph

Pressure: 29.44 in (Falling)
Visibility: 38.0 miles
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 800 ft
Overcast 3000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 607 ft
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A site I've never seen before but maybe you have. I have it on Guam.

http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Guam
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting TampaSpin:


Interesting in SW Caribbean.....hitting S. Florida......OH NO......here we go again.....LOL


I wish I had a nickle everytime a model said that this year... (and it hasn't happened yet)
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Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
379. you're just a big oil company paid shill, you denialist, aren't you? i'd bet you get your information from the denialsphere...

--Mic____STL





LOL j/k :)
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
391. xcool

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oh my....i'm glad i was driving home... lol
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
NOON EST FRI DEC 30 2005

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH HAD ITS ORIGINS IN AN OLD
FRONTAL TROUGH...BEGAN DEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
WITH WELL-FORMED CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE CENTER...WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT...AND TROPICAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...
ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE 27TH TROPICAL STORM OF 2005. THE
INTIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE RULE-
CONSTRAINED T2.5 CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE T3.5 DATA T NUMBERS.
WITHIN 24 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY
OVER THE CYCLONE...SO ZETA PROBABLY HAS A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I killed the blog. Think it was that darn facts and reliable sources thing. I gotta' quit that.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
According to the NHC, Zeta formed Dec 30, 2005

There you go, facts and reliable sources.
You go, CI, show 'em how it's done! Greetings, btw.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting mikatnight:


Zeta formed earlier than Dec 31st.
According to the NHC, Zeta formed Dec 30, 2005
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First gust from the north off of the south TX coast came at 54 mph...




...and followed by some tough waves for that area, 14 footers...

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Climate Change. Not Global Warming. Not Global Cooling. Erratic weather patterns, not necessarily colder or hotter.

If this was an audio signal, I'd put it on a loop.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting MILLERTIME1:
5TH Coldest September of all time in OKC and Wichita Falls area. Global Warming???


You have to look at global temperature anomalies. That is why it is called "global" warming.
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Gotta fix dinner and get ready for Monday nite football.....got some guess coming over! Everyone have a good evening. NO FIGHTING KIDS!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
"U.S. government data show the decade that ends in December will be the warmest in 130 years of record-keeping, and 2005 was the hottest year recorded."

Ha ha ha! That's right just go ahead. Guess what, I installed a weather station at my house last week. Saturday night was the coldest on record.

Going to build an asphalt-roofed structure right next to it and pave the yard in 3 years. Any guesses if the warmest day on record will be before or after I do that?

And 1933 (or 1934?) has suddenly cooled off in the last couple of years...amazing.

Apart from the conflicting data analyses is the eyebrow-raising new book title from Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, "Super Freakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance."

A line in the book says: "Then there's this little-discussed fact about global warming: While the drumbeat of doom has grown louder over the past several years, the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased."

That led to a sharp rebuke from the Union of Concerned Scientists, which said the book mischaracterizes climate science with "distorted statistics."


I guess they have been trying to figure out the GISS average telephone number -or- maybe hockey stick part deux. So they think it is untrue that "the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased"?

A link would have been better. A LOT of text without any discussion about what we think we know vs what we really do know. Is this from the Guardian, NBC, or GE's own website?
Sry, Oz, '-'.

Bad, slanted, no science article.


Your 100% correct....great job!
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Quoting MILLERTIME1:
5TH Coldest September of all time in OKC and Wichita Falls area. Global Warming???


I hear ya man....its such a fraud....Can't tell me for a second that the same location the temperatures gauges were in many years ago are the same today....NO WAY is that the case.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"U.S. government data show the decade that ends in December will be the warmest in 130 years of record-keeping, and 2005 was the hottest year recorded."

Ha ha ha! That's right just go ahead. Guess what, I installed a weather station at my house last week. Saturday night was the coldest on record.

Going to build an asphalt-roofed structure right next to it and pave the yard in 3 years. Any guesses if the warmest day on record will be before or after I do that?

And 1933 (or 1934?) has suddenly cooled off in the last couple of years...amazing.

Apart from the conflicting data analyses is the eyebrow-raising new book title from Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, "Super Freakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance."

A line in the book says: "Then there's this little-discussed fact about global warming: While the drumbeat of doom has grown louder over the past several years, the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased."

That led to a sharp rebuke from the Union of Concerned Scientists, which said the book mischaracterizes climate science with "distorted statistics."


I guess they have been trying to figure out the GISS average telephone number -or- maybe hockey stick part deux. So they think it is untrue that "the average global temperature during that time has in fact decreased"?

A link would have been better. A LOT of text without any discussion about what we think we know vs what we really do know. Is this from the Guardian, NBC, or GE's own website?
Sry, Oz, '-'.

Bad, slanted, no science article.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Station 42002 (LLNR 1405) - W GULF 207 NM East of Brownsville, TX

Conditions at 42002 as of
(4:50 pm CDT)
2150 GMT on 10/26/2009

Wind Speed (WSPD): 8.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 10.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.8 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 105 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1008.2 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -1.5 mb ( Falling )


Thats 1.8mb lower than yesterday at this time..
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5TH Coldest September of all time in OKC and Wichita Falls area. Global Warming???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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