A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That sounds like the ratio in some of the sororities at Tech ;) It wasn't quite as bad as that--there was/is a large subset of the Tech Geek guys who did not seem aware that people come in two sexes. Women at Tech were all aware they held the whip hand. Tech is definitely not a party school. Not to say that Emory and UGA didn't have a fun party scene I could get into :)


haha wow, I'm glad I go to a school with a large Greek Community (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting hydrus:


And I thought I was easily amused.
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


i know but i thought with all the football talk, upside down writing, which frat everyone belongs to, i thought it would be ok. lol. i was testing to see if i could still post pictures. i will stick to the weather.

Grothar it was nice talking to you.
Its all super cool dudette, vomitvomitvomit.....:)
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TS 23



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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
LOL GA Tech 20 years ago was 78% male, 22% female. And is not much better today--there were no women there until the late 50s. Many of those 22% were distinctly bovine. And the decent ones were generally afflicted with TBS.


oh wow, that would not be pleasant. My dorm building is 60% male, 40% female (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting hydrus:
Hey this is a weather blog, not VOMIT blog. ...Just kidding around..I think the word vomit is hilarious. It was neat type it...


i know but i thought with all the football talk, upside down writing, which frat everyone belongs to, i thought it would be ok. lol. i was testing to see if i could still post pictures. i will stick to the weather.

Grothar it was nice talking to you.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1566
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
GA Tech was / is less than 20% Greek--and most of those not greek probably are unaware that fraternities exist. 32 fraternities and 8 sororities when I was there. UGA is definitely a lot more Greek and dominated by Greeks than GA Tech was.


32 and 8? not too good of a mix :P

we have 78 and 32
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting WaterWitch11:


you must not have kids! WHEN YOU CAN WALK THROUGH A GROCERY STORE WITH YOUR KIDS VOMIT ON YOU AND NOT CARE WHAT ANYONE THINKS. IS THAT CALLED LOVE OR DISGUST?
Hey this is a weather blog, not VOMIT blog. ...Just kidding around..I think the word vomit is hilarious. It was neat type it...
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes, thanks, but do you have a close up? I can not seem to be able to post it.

This is the best I can do.
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


you must not have kids! WHEN YOU CAN WALK THROUGH A GROCERY STORE WITH YOUR KIDS VOMIT ON YOU AND NOT CARE WHAT ANYONE THINKS. IS THAT CALLED LOVE OR DISGUST?
WaterWitch11, use your ignore button. If that is the worst he/she has seen he should consider himself lucky. Nothing my kids or grandkids haven't bathed me with. LOL
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Grothar, would this be it ?


Yes, thanks, but do you have a close up? I can not seem to be able to post it.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Ole Kappa Sig here Jupiter


Hey, for real. Ole kapa sig means, Ole, (a man's name) go hijack yourself, in Norwegian.

I have been quite well. Have to get ready to travel again, though.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25092


Grothar, would this be it ?
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Quoting winter123:


BAN. That makes me want to vomit, not smile.


you must not have kids! WHEN YOU CAN WALK THROUGH A GROCERY STORE WITH YOUR KIDS VOMIT ON YOU AND NOT CARE WHAT ANYONE THINKS. IS THAT CALLED LOVE OR DISGUST?
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1566
Quoting mikatnight:


It was just in response to Reedzone saying the season ends on Nov. 30. The point is that a TC can form in the Atlantic Basin as late as the last day of the year. The storm I mentioned was originally thought to have formed on Jan 1st, but later analysis revealed it to have formed on Dec. 31st.
But that year all the Ingredients were there no El Nino,low shear, and storm after storm came imo doubt this year we will see any after Oct 30th
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Cool tornadodude :) Heard that your school is very Greek. So is UGA, GA Tech was not so much---but Kappa Sig was about all that made Tech tolerable sometimes ;)


Yeah we are very Greek, have the third largest Greek community in the country, love it! :)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh wow my partner joined Sigma Chi, he would say In Hoc to ya.


In Hoc right back atcha...
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Sorry for the confusion...I wrote...

hi grothar, matt and nana...grothar posted earlier that a frown is just a smile turned upside down...so i am typing while standing on my head.
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452. xcool


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Anyone have a current image of TD 23 in the Wpac. I haven't been able to post one.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25092
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, we even have schools where children can go at very early ages. We are currently working on a thing called roads. I don't know if you have any. By the way, I attended Stony Brook University on Long Island and the U of M.
How are ya GA? Wondered where you have been.
Didn't realize you had sarcasm in you LOL
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
How bout you Tornadodude--which house?


I'm Theta Chi at Purdue
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha youre in one too?

which one?


Sigma Chi at UF
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:



I didn't know there were fraternities in Norway :)


Yes, we even have schools where children can go at very early ages. We are currently working on a thing called roads. I don't know if you have any. By the way, I attended Stony Brook University on Long Island and the U of M.
How are ya GA? Wondered where you have been.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25092
Quoting WaterWitch11:


no i think i have been banned from uploading new pictures, because I tried to upload a picture from the internet and it had bad words in small letter at the bottom and I didn't know it. but yes I did do it wrong for existing pictures.

thank you for everyone trying to help!


SO.........for those in need of a smile here ya go!


BAN. That makes me want to vomit, not smile.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


LOL My frat room in Gainesville.


haha youre in one too?

which one?
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha wonder what you are thinking ;) LOL


LOL My frat room in Gainesville.
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Quoting JupiterFL:


hmmmmm......


haha wonder what you are thinking ;) LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting WaterWitch11:SO.........for those in need of a smile here ya go!

which type of smile?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting Grothar:


Boy TD, make one mistake on this blog and they never let you forget it................... remind you of a frat room? (:)((: When you do it upside down it comes out the same way.


hmmmmm......
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
˙pɐǝɥ ʎɯ uo ƃuıpuɐʇs ǝlıɥʍ ƃuıdʎʇ ɯɐ ı os˙˙˙uʍop ǝpısdn pǝuɹnʇ ǝlıɯs ɐ ʇsnɾ sı uʍoɹɟ ɐ ʇɐɥʇ ɹǝılɹɐǝ pǝʇsod ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ˙˙˙ɐuɐu puɐ ʇʇɐɯ `ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ ıɥ


Not you too?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25092
Quoting PcolaDan:




LOL xD
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Quoting tornadodude:


(ןoן ʍou sʇuǝɯɯoɔ ǝɥʇ ǝǝs uɐɔ ı) pɹıǝʍ ʇsnɾ sɐʍ ı ʇɥƃnoɥʇ ןoן pɐǝɥ sıɥ uo ƃuıpuɐʇs ǝןıɥʍ ǝdʎʇ ǝsןǝ ǝuoǝɯos ǝǝs oʇ pɐןƃ d: ʍou ʎǝɥ ɐɥɐɥ


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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
˙pɐǝɥ ʎɯ uo ƃuıpuɐʇs ǝlıɥʍ ƃuıdʎʇ ɯɐ ı os˙˙˙uʍop ǝpısdn pǝuɹnʇ ǝlıɯs ɐ ʇsnɾ sı uʍoɹɟ ɐ ʇɐɥʇ ɹǝılɹɐǝ pǝʇsod ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ˙˙˙ɐuɐu puɐ ʇʇɐɯ `ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ ıɥ


(ןoן ʍou sʇuǝɯɯoɔ ǝɥʇ ǝǝs uɐɔ ı) pɹıǝʍ ʇsnɾ sɐʍ ı ʇɥƃnoɥʇ ןoן pɐǝɥ sıɥ uo ƃuıpuɐʇs ǝןıɥʍ ǝdʎʇ ǝsןǝ ǝuoǝɯos ǝǝs oʇ pɐןƃ d: ʍou ʎǝɥ ɐɥɐɥ
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting Grothar:


Boy TD, make one mistake on this blog and they never let you forget it................... remind you of a frat room? (:)((: When you do it upside down it comes out the same way.


haha yeah, that is quite the analogy :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8200
Quoting Grothar:


Phew! Thanks Hydrus!
No problem, were you banned? That is like getting suspended for good behavior...
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˙pɐǝɥ ʎɯ uo ƃuıpuɐʇs ǝlıɥʍ ƃuıdʎʇ ɯɐ ı os˙˙˙uʍop ǝpısdn pǝuɹnʇ ǝlıɯs ɐ ʇsnɾ sı uʍoɹɟ ɐ ʇɐɥʇ ɹǝılɹɐǝ pǝʇsod ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ˙˙˙ɐuɐu puɐ ʇʇɐɯ `ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ ıɥ
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Quoting hydrus:
WELCOME BACK GROTHAR


Phew! Thanks Hydrus!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25092
Quoting tornadodude:


LOL thanks (:

hey guys


Boy TD, make one mistake on this blog and they never let you forget it................... remind you of a frat room? (:)((: When you do it upside down it comes out the same way.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 68 Comments: 25092

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.