A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

Share this Blog
2
+

There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 527 - 477

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Wow. There is not even one post that I feel I need to comment on, contradict, or reply to. That's pretty amazing, given the range of topics.... lol

How's everybody? I had a rough day, including a four-hour meeting that ended after 8 p.m. Plus the weather was miserable hot again, with only the occasional trade wind breeze to keep one from feeling like one was suffocating. It felt like September instead of practically November. It would be nice to get at least some of that frontal energy here before the week is out....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He told me on Facebook he had an indefinite(not sure if this is the word I want but doesn't know the length)


oh ok
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Grothar:
If there are no posts on this blog tomorrow, I do not want anyone on here tonight asking why. If you're going to talk football, at least talk about the "Snow Bowl" game. This way we shall stay safe.


How about the icebowl? Dallas and Greenbay?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


IP ban?
He told me on Facebook he had an indefinite(not sure if this is the word I want but doesn't know the length)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If there are no posts on this blog tomorrow, I do not want anyone on here tonight asking why. If you're going to talk football, at least talk about the "Snow Bowl" game. This way we shall stay safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
522. xcool


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Not for quite a while...


IP ban?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Looks like we still have a spin in the sw Caribbean but not much else.


however, no convection.



¡uoıʇɔǝʌuoɔ ou 'ɹǝʌǝʍoɥ 'uɐǝɯ ı 'ʇıɐʍ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
519. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FKPQ31 RJTD 270000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20091027/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
NR: 2
PSN: N1400 E14505
MOV: W 15KT
C: 1002HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 27/0600Z N1420 E14335
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT

FCST PSN +12HR: 27/1200Z N1450 E14205
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 27/1800Z N1510 E14035
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 28/0000Z N1535 E13905
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20091027/0600Z =

---
23W aka TD 25 is suppose to be named in 6 hours or less
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
518. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FKPQ30 RJTD 270000
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20091027/0000Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: LUPIT
NR: 50
PSN: N3840 E14610
MOV: NNE 55KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 27/0600Z N4205 E14910
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 65KT

FCST PSN +12HR: 27/1200Z N4500 E15150 EXTRATROPICAL LOW
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 27/1800Z N4700 E15535
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 28/0000Z N4820 E16000 EXTRATROPICAL LOW
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20091027/0600Z =

--
forecasted to be upgraded to strong typhoon again by the JMA before declaring it extratropical
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
speaking of vomit, anyone seen WS/JFV?
Not for quite a while...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Looks like we still have a spin in the sw Caribbean but not much else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
514. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
ahh! stop making me read from right to left x.x
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Very cool! Anything over 55 is A+! I know who he is :)


oh cool! he is a cool guy, and I definitely think he has a decent shot at the NFL, he is a sophomore
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
˙pɐǝɥ ʎɯ uo ƃuıpuɐʇs ǝlıɥʍ ƃuıdʎʇ ɯɐ ı os˙˙˙uʍop ǝpısdn pǝuɹnʇ ǝlıɯs ɐ ʇsnɾ sı uʍoɹɟ ɐ ʇɐɥʇ ɹǝılɹɐǝ pǝʇsod ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ˙˙˙ɐuɐu puɐ ʇʇɐɯ `ɹɐɥʇoɹƃ ıɥ


¡bo1q ʇıɯoʌ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Looks like isentropic lift is on the rise for me :)


isentropic lift
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


vomit? whats that? ;)

there are some mountain snows:


I've vomited too many times to count. When you think about it, it's actually the healthy thing to do, but for some reason its frowned on by society. If there's something in your body that shouldn't be there (Alcohol, food gone bad, etc) it should be expelled before it's processed by your body and does damage.

I wish i lived the phillipenes right now, i'd have an excuse to drink and eat crow-burgers. but I'm not and I'm doing it anyway. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:

This is the best I can do.


Hey, that's pretty good. Hope it stays away from the Philippines. They have had enough!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks! I was a kicker. But still :)


Hey, kickers are important too, I'm actually friends with our kicker here at Purdue (Carson Wiggs) he has the longest kick in the NCAA this season at 59 yards, he also has a 55 yarder too
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

looks like the west coast is in for some rain and the jet stream looks as though it's going to come into CA
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1750
speaking of vomit, anyone seen WS/JFV?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Evening folks. Sorry to hear there's another typhoon headed for the Phillipines. This one looks to be further south than Parma or Lupit.
Meanwhile, in the Gulf, NOLA appears to be getting more than its share of the wet stuff.

Anyway, goodnight!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Orcasystems:


You might need this :)
Link


LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
At Tech, it was Beta Theta Pi and LXA and Sigma Chi and us who were top, depending on who you ask, with KA and Sigma Nu up there. SAE would have been in the top rank also, but for a variety of reasons were not around for most of the time I was at Tech.

When I first played at Tech we were 2 and 8 in 1987--but by the 1990 season, my last playing, we closed out as national champions :) I'm not a big ring wearer, but I have to admit the national champion ring I got does get worn. From time to time.


congratulations!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
497. xcool
k
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Magicchaos:
My thoughts in the Atlantic:

Wave near 25W south of 15N a FAIR(25-40%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 55W south of 15N a VERY LOW(<10%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Trough around 85-89W 17-25N a VERY LOW(<10%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.


You might need this :)
Link
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
My thoughts in the Atlantic:

Wave near 25W south of 15N a FAIR(25-40%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 55W south of 15N a VERY LOW(<10%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Trough around 85-89W 17-25N a VERY LOW(<10%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
493. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION "25"
9:00 AM JST October 27 2009
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression near Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 14.0N 145.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 15.6N 139.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

---
Here the JMA data for the new cyclone near Guam
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hadesgodwyvern--Another huge storm, good ole Mother Nature flexing Her muscle...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
damn skippy, scape-hippo!!!!!

I want equal representation for all non-weather related posts! I want my purple hippo to be able to take a dump on any Hurricane she sees and not feel the wrath of Admin for it!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
490. xcool



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well for us Greeks it was more fun---even a lot of the houses were pretty geeky--there were less than a dozen houses that were a lot of fun and recognizably frat like when I was there. Including mine of course :)

However the football team I was part of was more well renowned that the greek scene anyway :)


Yeah haha I think we are ranked number six on the campus,

gotta love the football teams :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
488. xcool
Heavy Rain head this way!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
ok...this morning it was football...and now it's vomit....

and I'm the one who gets banned!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


scape-hippo? LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting NRAamy:
ok...this morning it was football...and now it's vomit....

and I'm the one who gets banned!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
484. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #99
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (T0920)
9:00 AM JST October 27 2009
================================

Subject: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Lupit (975 hPa) located at 38.7N 146.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northeast at 55 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
150 NM from the center in west quadrant

Gale-Force Winds
================
600 NM from the center in east quadrant
240 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 48.3N 160.0E - EXTRATROPICAL

---
LARGE System
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ok...this morning it was football...and now it's vomit....

and I'm the one who gets banned!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting tornadodude:


vomit? whats that? ;)

there is some mountain snows:
HHMMM...It must be weather related, or it would not be here...cough, hack.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
I tell ya what, with all the bad things going on in the world, a few laughs and a little humor can go along way...Just my harmless opinion of course.
We need a lot more laughter. Enough sadness in the world to go around.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


And I thought I was easily amused.
I tell ya what, with all the bad things going on in the world, a few laughs and a little humor can go along way...Just my harmless opinion of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Frat boys don't talk about vomit.

Anway, there any interesting weather here?


vomit? whats that? ;)

there are some mountain snows:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
That sounds like the ratio in some of the sororities at Tech ;) It wasn't quite as bad as that--there was/is a large subset of the Tech Geek guys who did not seem aware that people come in two sexes. Women at Tech were all aware they held the whip hand. Tech is definitely not a party school. Not to say that Emory and UGA didn't have a fun party scene I could get into :)


haha wow, I'm glad I go to a school with a large Greek Community (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

Viewing: 527 - 477

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
39 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron