A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Yea, I was 1/3 correct. There is a quick followup question on WU mail.


haha gotcha!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


haha mail :P

Yea, I was 1/3 correct. There is a quick followup question on WU mail.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
575. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Neki (1010 hPa) located at 30.3N 164.9W or 390 NM north of French Frigate Shoals has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving north-northeast at 31 knots

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
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Quoting hurricane23:
I respectable disagree with masters on any development in the caribbean during the new few weeks. There's nothing remotely favorable for tc development down there and in my view there are no signs of that changing.It seemed to me that the 30-35N band around the hemisphere has had episodes of above average torque this season. The flow was just to tended to "curving" and this interfered with the normal laminar deep layer trade flow that would provide an ambient shear more favorable to development. I would not quote that directly without research however.

Why that is/was ...not sure. But the AAM was slightly positive across the last 90 days, and observing the graphical layout, it appeared 30 N was plagued a bit.

Shear and dry air are signature El Nino

adrian



hey 23 am with you all the way hurricane season is done and that is that
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I respectable disagree with masters on any development in the caribbean during the new few weeks. There's nothing remotely favorable for tc development down there and in my view there are no signs of that changing.It seemed to me that the 30-35N band around the hemisphere has had episodes of above average torque this season. The flow was just to tended to "curving" and this interfered with the normal laminar deep layer trade flow that would provide an ambient shear more favorable to development. I would not quote that directly without research however.

Why that is/was ...not sure. But the AAM was slightly positive across the last 90 days, and observing the graphical layout, it appeared 30 N was plagued a bit.

Shear and dry air are signature El Nino

adrian
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572. JRRP
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5343
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Still catching up on posts...
Question: What's TBS? e.g., the decent females on campus had TBS. Pls. don't get banned on my account. Is B for the word that rhymes w/witch?

Regurgitation is a BLOG Topic???!!! LMAO.

All I know about that, besides the after-effects of too much partying, is that bulimia is really bad. Did some research on it. Besides the bad physical effects, you wouldn't believe the psychological profile of bulimics and after-effects. I am so happy I enjoy my food & drink only once (unless really ill.)

Weather TBA and TBD.


haha mail :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Still catching up on posts...
Question: What's TBS? e.g., the decent females on campus had TBS. Pls. don't get banned on my account. Is B for the word that rhymes w/witch?

Regurgitation is a BLOG Topic???!!! LMAO.

All I know about that, besides the after-effects of too much partying, is that bulimia is really bad. Did some research on it. Besides the bad physical effects, you wouldn't believe the psychological profile of bulimics and after-effects. I am so happy I enjoy my food & drink only once (unless really ill.)

Weather TBA and TBD.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
569. xcool



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I see you guys typing on yer heads, again.

Make no mistake: mom and wow being the same when flipped over is not a coincidence. A perfect description of a good mom (of which my wife is the best there ever was).

(Ding,ding, brownie points!)

Bunch of strong winds on the south TX coast earlier today ranging from the upper 50s to 81 mph.



Most of the thunderstorm chances are out to sea...shouldn't be a lot more severe weather with this front.


(At least through the night, but hopefully not at all.)
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Quoting hydrus:
At least we are here to do that very thing this year without some part of our coastline be blasted off the map by some massive hurricane. Maybe its Mother Natures way of saying (beer break). But we both know we have a little over a month to go.


yeah, this season has been very welcome
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


Watch and Wait, sounds like this whole season
At least we are here to do that very thing this year without some part of our coastline be blasted off the map by some massive hurricane. Maybe its Mother Natures way of saying (beer break). But we both know we have a little over a month to go.
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Quoting hydrus:
The western Gulf has shear, but it does not seem that strong on the far eastern side. I could be seeing things, I will just watch and wait.


Watch and Wait, sounds like this whole season
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting Grothar:


I shall leave you with this image. Everyone take care and stay well. I may be gone again for a while, but hope to be back again soon.


Grothar, you're on late! Then again, so am I.
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Quoting tornadodude:


how is the shear though?
The western Gulf has shear, but it does not seem that strong on the far eastern side. I could be seeing things, I will just watch and wait.
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Quoting hydrus:
The Gulf of Mexico is looking interesting. Notice the deep convection on the east side. There is almost a hint of a circulation with good outflow.


how is the shear though?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


haha thanks, how can you forget moments like that though??
The Gulf of Mexico is looking interesting. Notice the deep convection on the east side. There is almost a hint of a circulation with good outflow.
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TD 23W (JTWC upgraded the TD to a TS, JMA haven't yet)
Link
Guam NWS radar showing a bit of 23W's circulation.
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Quoting Grothar:


I shall leave you with this image. Everyone take care and stay well. I may be gone again for a while, but hope to be back again soon.


Take care Grothar!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201


I shall leave you with this image. Everyone take care and stay well. I may be gone again for a while, but hope to be back again soon.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

The Gulf states seem to get pounded even in so-called good years, ugh.
OK, I'll catch up on posts. Geoff made me turn my laptop upside-down again! :)(:


hahaha (: I guess I was easily amused this morning
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


Yeah, lol, I am not too interested in this game :P except I am rooting for the Red Skins. Looks like there are a few storms in Louisiana

The Gulf states seem to get pounded even in so-called good years, ugh.
OK, I'll catch up on posts. Geoff made me turn my laptop upside-down again! :)(:
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Grothar:


But with possible global warming that would only be for an indefinite period of time before it could be 60% below sea level.:P

You really are too funny TD. If nothing else, your memory is phenomenal.


haha thanks, how can you forget moments like that though??
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


I am definite that parts of the world are 50% below sea level XD


But with possible global warming that would only be for an indefinite period of time before it could be 60% below sea level.:P

You really are too funny TD. If nothing else, your memory is phenomenal.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Can't leave you guys alone in here for even a couple hours to watch a little tv with the hubby.

At first I thought that said FEMA -- waking nightmare -- same as Philly-Skins game. At least the Skins are on the board. We only watched during commercials.

Any more bad storms in TX, elsewhere?


Yeah, lol, I am not too interested in this game :P except I am rooting for the Red Skins. Looks like there are a few storms in Louisiana
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, just when u think u have a chance to cut down the electric bill....

Buya! 90 deg. highs and 80+ degree lows....


Here per local wunder, it was 81.6F, 87% and 0.0 wind when I posted. The 0.0 was Amazing--we Always have something, even if it's just all of us coughing and sneezing.
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My thoughts on the Eastern/Central Pacific:

Low near 10N 90W a LOW(10-25%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Trough near 12N 102W a FAIR(25-40%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Trough near 10N 170W a FAIR(25-40%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha what about femal........... again, no need for a ban ;)

Can't leave you guys alone in here for even a couple hours to watch a little tv with the hubby.

At first I thought that said FEMA -- waking nightmare -- same as Philly-Skins game. At least the Skins are on the board. We only watched during commercials.

Any more bad storms in TX, elsewhere?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting Grothar:


Are you definite about that? Could you at least give me your analysis of the Atlantic basin forecast before you go. Even an indefinite answer would definitely suffice.


I am definite that parts of the world are 50% below sea level XD
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting BahaHurican:
Grothar, I can't even stay that long.... I can only stay for a definite length of time... and it's just about gone. LOL


Are you definite about that? Could you at least give me your analysis of the Atlantic basin forecast before you go. Even an indefinite answer would definitely suffice.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Right, that's definitely the time.... lol

G'night, and see u in the a.m.....
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Grothar, I can't even stay that long.... I can only stay for a definite length of time... and it's just about gone. LOL
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Meh--I'd like the AC to stay off, but I know that is not realistic here in October. But some lasting cool weather would be great!
Here one can usually switch from A/C to a window fan at night by mid-October. (Days still often require the A/C.) However, this year? Not so much....

OTOH, I'd rather be hot than hit by a hurricane.... lol
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I can only stay on for an indefinite amount of time. Before I go, does anyone have any thoughts of any type of development in the Atlantic basin for the upcoming week?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting miajrz:

Here in Miami, I came home from work and turned the a/c on again. (sigh)
Yeah, just when u think u have a chance to cut down the electric bill....

Buya! 90 deg. highs and 80+ degree lows....
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Fun announcement coming tomorrow!
Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, fried is a good word for how I was feeling when I got home 2nite.... lol

either that or steamed....

This is an unusual wx pattern for this time of year. That map in 522 is forecasting some 50+ degree differentials between the US SE and NW... amazing. Also amazing to be having 82 outside at 10 pm this late in October... and 90 highs. Amazing effects of the high pressure.


yeah, it is definitely very odd :/
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
BTW, looks like Neki is about to be swept off by a cold front....

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Quoting tornadodude:


Well I am doing well, hope you arent too fried after your meeting and all the hot weather :P
Yeah, fried is a good word for how I was feeling when I got home 2nite.... lol

either that or steamed....

This is an unusual wx pattern for this time of year. That map in 522 is forecasting some 50+ degree differentials between the US SE and NW... amazing. Also amazing to be having 82 outside at 10 pm this late in October... and 90 highs. Amazing effects of the high pressure.
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Quoting Grothar:


Never give anybody the last word, do you TD! I liiiiiiike that!! Never let anyone top you.


haha what about femal........... again, no need for a ban ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. Plus the weather was miserable hot again, with only the occasional trade wind breeze to keep one from feeling like one was suffocating. .


Here in Miami, I came home from work and turned the a/c on again. (sigh)
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Quoting tornadodude:


How about the icebowl? Dallas and Greenbay?


Never give anybody the last word, do you TD! I liiiiiiike that!! Never let anyone top you.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting Grothar:


If he doesn't know the meaning of "indefinite" and wants to know how long that is, well....... what can one say to that?

Tell him to check back every 5 minutes or so .. indefinite could easily be that long .. course the better word would be "permanent" but who knows what they mean ... =P

edit: whoops forgot to add the weather part to duck the banstik .... cool and drizzly here in mobile .. miserable =)
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Quoting Grothar:


If he doesn't know the meaning of "indefinite" and wants to know how long that is, well....... what can one say to that?


Indefinite- the amount of space in his..... nvm, no need for a ban (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
531. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He told me on Facebook he had an indefinite(not sure if this is the word I want but doesn't know the length)


If he doesn't know the meaning of "indefinite" and wants to know how long that is, well....... what can one say to that?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting tornadodude:


IP ban?
I dont know...Do I think it could happen?...yes.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. There is not even one post that I feel I need to comment on, contradict, or reply to. That's pretty amazing, given the range of topics.... lol

How's everybody? I had a rough day, including a four-hour meeting that ended after 8 p.m. Plus the weather was miserable hot again, with only the occasional trade wind breeze to keep one from feeling like one was suffocating. It felt like September instead of practically November. It would be nice to get at least some of that frontal energy here before the week is out....



Well I am doing well, hope you arent too fried after your meeting and all the hot weather :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Wow. There is not even one post that I feel I need to comment on, contradict, or reply to. That's pretty amazing, given the range of topics.... lol

How's everybody? I had a rough day, including a four-hour meeting that ended after 8 p.m. Plus the weather was miserable hot again, with only the occasional trade wind breeze to keep one from feeling like one was suffocating. It felt like September instead of practically November. It would be nice to get at least some of that frontal energy here before the week is out....

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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