A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
Interesting fact...although not that surprising....there has been no hurricane or tropical storm to strike the USA in November this decade.


Morning Ike, I love hurricane history, tell us more...
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Quoting TheUno:
9:24 am EDT is the new liftoff time...


Good one Uno, your post showed up 10 seconds before the nasa tv guy confirmed it. I guess the big tell all will be when (if) the "5-hole probe" cover comes off, then they're sure it's a go...
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9:24 am EDT is the new liftoff time...
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624. IKE
Interesting fact...although not that surprising....there has been no hurricane or tropical storm to strike the USA in November this decade.
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Quoting P451:
Interesting stuff, Mike


Thanks P451, I was beginning to think I'd chased everyone away. Was about to post the seldom heard of rule that states that any blogger who can post ten in a row gets to own the blog for 24 hours and can talk about any subject. I of course would post nothing but global warming articles, classic rock and roll lyrics, and off-color jokes…
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New delay on the pad...8:29 is no longer the go time. Riveting live TV.
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Quoting leftovers:
strong onshore winds this morning might be a negative for the aries launch in a few hours heard a few months ago they were having problems with it vibrations here in e.cent florida


Just to be specific, it's not aries (as in astrology), but ares. The name "Ares" refers to the Greek deity Ares, who is identified with the Roman god Mars.
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NASA Update:
Countdown delayed...built-in hold to continue to 8:25, scheduled lift-off at 8:29am...
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T minus 21 minutes, built in hold at T-minus 4m, still go for 8am launch...
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The 8am twd is up already, at 7:15.
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NASA TV
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and now for something completely different...

NASA to launch world's largest rocket


(CNN) -- NASA is set to launch the world's largest rocket Tuesday, conducting research to help return astronauts to the moon.
The 327-foot rocket, called the Ares I-X, is set to launch at 8 a.m. ET from Kennedy Space Center in Florida, NASA said. The empty rocket will help NASA collect information for future missions.
"Ares I-X will bring NASA one step closer to its exploration goals to return to the moon for ambitious exploration," NASA said in statement.
The launch, which NASA is calling a test, is among four test launches of Ares I-X that will go on until 2012.
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Hello (hello, hello)
Is there anybody in there?
Just nod if you can hear me...
Is there anyone at home?
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Oops! I see CycloneOz in post #374 beat me to the punch, and atmoaggie has already trashed it. Oh well, at least I showed the pretty picture that went with it, as well as the link...
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606. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Phillipine Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Weather Advisory No. 02
TROPICAL STORM (Pre-Santi)
Issued at 11:00 a.m. PhST 27 October 2009
=======================================

Tropical Storm (In't typhoon name Mirinae) over the Marianas Islands (North of Guam) was estimated at 2,200 km East Northeast of Visayas (13.9°N 145.1°E) with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (35 kts) and gustiness of up to 80 km/h (45 kts). It is forecast to move West Northwest at 26 km/h.

This weather disturbance is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Thursday (Oct. 29).

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Also interesting (from the conclusion of the above article)

Oceans influence short-term weather
Oceans, which take longer to heat up and longer to cool, greatly influence short-term weather, causing temperatures to rise and fall temporarily on top of the overall steady warming trend, scientists say. The biggest example of that is El Nino.
El Nino, a temporary warming of part of the Pacific Ocean, usually spikes global temperatures, scientists say. The two recent warm years, both 1998 and 2005, were El Nino years. The flip side of El Nino is La Nina, which lowers temperatures. A La Nina bloomed last year and temperatures slipped a bit, but 2008 was still the ninth hottest in 130 years of NOAA records.
Of the 10 hottest years recorded by NOAA, eight have occurred since 2000, and after this year it will be nine because this year is on track to be the sixth-warmest on record.
The current El Nino is forecast to get stronger, which probably will pushing global temperatures even higher next year, scientists say. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt predicts 2010 may break a record, so a cooling trend "will be never talked about again."
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Good Morning!
From an MSN article this morning:

Statisticians reject global cooling
Some skeptics claim Earth is cooling despite contrary data

Icebergs float in a bay off Ammassalik Island, Greenland.
By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

updated 4:47 p.m. ET, Mon., Oct . 26, 2009
WASHINGTON - An analysis of global temperatures by independent statisticians shows the Earth is still warming and not cooling as some global warming skeptics are claiming.
The analysis was conducted at the request of The Associated Press to investigate the legitimacy of talk of a cooling trend that has been spreading on the Internet, fueled by some news reports, a new book and temperatures that have been cooler in a few recent years.
In short, it is not true, according to the statisticians who contributed to the AP analysis.
The statisticians, reviewing two sets of temperature data, found no trend of falling temperatures over time.
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Well balderdash, would you look at what's headed for Macon, Georgia this morning. I think I'll just go back to sleep, no yard work at my house this morning. heh heh heh
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602. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM MIRINAE (T0921)
15:00 PM JST October 27 2009
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon near Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Mirinae (998 hPa) located at 14.9N 143.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving west at 15 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 16.2N 137.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 16.3N 131.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 16.6N 126.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon)
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Quoting btwntx08:
hurricane season is not over until nov 30 at 11:59:59 sorry but i do see something forming by next week.


But one also has to factor in the fact that, aside from Gordon, no November tropical cyclone has developed in the Caribbean during an El Nino year, at least within several decades. Possible yes, but unlikely. The odds are certainly against it.
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600. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
480
TCNA21 RJTD 270600 CCA
NAMELESS 25149 11437 13136 220// 92915=

6:00 AM UTC October 27 2009

Tropical Depression "25"
14.9N 143.7E
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0
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599. xcool


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598. xcool
btwntx08 :0
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come on, we can at least get over 600 before i go to bed, in august even when it was dead we had 600 within 5 minutes. On topic: wpac storm:

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595. JRRP
adios
Link
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594. xcool
you too
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Quoting Skyepony:
Clear skies... If they would just hold til a little after 8am ET. Got a NASA causeway car pass to the ARES I-X launch in the morning.. They want cloudless conditions to launch.

It looks like they might make it if they don't dilly dally around. I know they have a four hour reserved window, but if they don't go early it might not happen.
Good luck with your pass.
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Quoting xcool:
bye matt


have a good one scott
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
591. xcool
bye matt
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Quoting Bordonaro:
"It's just about Midnight (CDT time) and all through the blog, not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse! As every blogger snuggles up in their beds, visions of Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, Super Typhoons, Weather Maps, Satellite Pictures and GFS Models dance through their heads. Good night to all, and to all good night"!

If anyone wants to stop by my new blog for today, it's about Mid TN Fall Severe Weather awareness! Be blessed all!!!


haha love it, goodnight to you, and everyone else, catch y'all tomorrow (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
"It's just about Midnight (CDT time) and all through the blog, not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse! As every blogger snuggles up in their beds, visions of Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, Hurricanes, Super Typhoons, Weather Maps, Satellite Pictures and GFS Models dance through their heads. Good night to all, and to all good night"!

If anyone wants to stop by my new blog for today, it's about Mid TN Fall Severe Weather awareness! Be blessed all!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Skyepony:
Clear skies... If they would just hold til a little after 8am ET. Got a NASA causeway car pass to the ARES I-X launch in the morning.. They want cloudless conditions to launch.


hope it works out
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
587. Skyepony (Mod)
Clear skies... If they would just hold til a little after 8am ET. Got a NASA causeway car pass to the ARES I-X launch in the morning.. They want cloudless conditions to launch.
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

OOPS, clarification, gotta' go with my New England roots, yes, Red Sox.

Okay, T-Dude, thanks and I'm going to let you study(?), lol. Night, tomorrow will be another day to check on WPac and other things.


shew! had me worried there :P

haha have a goodnight, and if you want to call it studying LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


haha uh oh, Yankees :O

gotta go with my Red Sox (:

OOPS, clarification, gotta' go with my New England roots, yes, Red Sox.

Okay, T-Dude, thanks and I'm going to let you study(?), lol. Night, tomorrow will be another day to check on WPac and other things.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
well...... it just started raining here :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Ha, posted the same time.

Time to claim my Yankee roots. Go New England!


haha uh oh, Yankees :O

gotta go with my Red Sox (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:
so the Eagles won... on a nice cool night :P

Ha, posted the same time.

Time to claim my Yankee roots. Go New England!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
If anyone cares at all, re Deadskins, don't think Jim Zorn will be around much longer...but if a poll was taken around here, think Dan Snyder would be dumped first. Can a team or town get rid of an owner if they haven't done anything obviously illegal?


hmmm, well the Colts got rid of Baltimore.... so anything is possible I suppose
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
If anyone cares at all, re Deadskins, don't think Jim Zorn will be around much longer...but if a poll was taken around here, think Dan Snyder would be dumped first. Can a team or town get rid of an owner if they haven't done anything obviously illegal?
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
so the Eagles won... on a nice cool night :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Yea, I was 1/3 correct. There is a quick followup question on WU mail.


haha gotcha!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.