A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:


I read that easily. how did u do that?


dare I introduce this to the blog? LOL

upside down typing
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Quoting tornadodude:
(: ƃuıuıɐןdxǝ ǝɥʇ op ı ǝɹoɟǝq uɹɐǝן oʇ ʇoן ɐ ǝʌɐɥ i


I read that easily. how did u do that?
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I heard he's minoring in Hebrew (read right to left).


uɐɯ ƃuıppıʞ ʇsnɾ ןoן ¿ǝıssnɐ 'ɐıןɐɹʇsnɐ uı ǝʞıן ʞooן sʇsod ɹno ʇɐɥʍ sıɥʇ sı 'os
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
54. oh, i'm just giving the newb a hard time! (:

LOL!


So am I. He gets us all the time. Payback is great, eh? He keeps the blog on its toes.
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
are we going to mock T-dude into compliance on the unwritten but widely-accepted smiley convention? LOL (:

I heard he's minoring in Hebrew (read right to left).
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Off topic but a good read, i would hate to be this car dealer. OUCH
Link
P.S US$220,000 car now a wreck

Please pray for the people in Guam, Saipan and Philippines, I hope there is no lives lost and this storm stays at sea.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Dost thou mock me? (Just kidding, and I deserve to be mocked this morning!)

No, I had trouble posting the picture, so I posted the link in stead. And Japan is +9 GMT. If you jump the International Date Line from Hawaii, you gain 1 full day!

Excuse me while I finish my morning mud!
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Oh I don't disagree with that part..I guess i should have explained it better... yes its +9, but its also on the other side of the International date line.... so its a different day. BC is -7 or 8 depending on daylight savings. So right now in Japan its actually 11:42 PM on Monday, October 26... so almost Tuesday.


TIME ZONES:

The world is broken into 24 separate time zones that are used to help determine the time in all areas of the world. GMT (Greenwich Mean Time) or UT (Universal Time) is a method of referencing the time differences across the world. The GMT or UT is centered in the middle of the time zone as 12:00. Any time zone to the left of this is -GMT or -UT and any time zone to the right of this is +GMT or +UT. Below is a listing of time zone abbreviations, time zone descriptions and the UT difference.

Actually, Orca, if you look at my link it explains that in detail. Although, I must say that Aussie's is a much better Link, since you do not have to figure it out. I shall keep his link. Thanks Aussie. By the way, Orca, I have 14 "Domain of the Golden Dragon" cards which means I have crossed the IDL 14 times. More actually, if you count the trips by air. But thanks for pointing it out. Most people do forget that.
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Thanks 58 I guess its getting better then, I hope. Looks like you'll get some today, but Texas is a big state hope your in the right spot.
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(: ƃuıuıɐןdxǝ ǝɥʇ op ı ǝɹoɟǝq uɹɐǝן oʇ ʇoן ɐ ǝʌɐɥ i
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Good Morning, below is a link for the World's Time Zones
<>a href="" target="_blank">


Dost thou mock me? (Just kidding, and I deserve to be mocked this morning!)
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63. maybe your smiley should look like this.... (:)

it works either way! LOL
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
54. oh, i'm just giving the newb a hard time! (:

LOL!
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, pearlandaggie. Ah, come on. Leave TD alone. He is just a student and still learning. Besides didn't you ever hear that "a smile is just a frown turned upside down" We will need him in the future to explain all these technical terms for us on this blog. LOL


I can try, =D
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Hey Aussie, by the way thanks for keeping us abreast on the down under and across yonder side of the world.

No worries Mate!
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Quoting DookiePBC:
Thankfully, last weeks invest in the Bahamas didn't amount to anything and I was able to go on my first fishing trip yesterday off of Palm Beach. Actually managed to catch some fish too. First time I'd been in a non-cruise ship in the ocean and the seas were only about 2 feet. No problems!!


How far out and do you know what type of fish they were?
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9329
56. Oh no, now my head hurts (time zones & block party last night.)
Orca, please send chocolate. A triple box, please.
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Hey Aussie, by the way thanks for keeping us abreast on the down under and across yonder side of the world.
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The lakes near Corpus Christi, Texas are a combined 57 percent of capacity. So we still need rain in this area
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Quoting DookiePBC:
Thankfully, last weeks invest in the Bahamas didn't amount to anything and I was able to go on my first fishing trip yesterday off of Palm Beach. Actually managed to catch some fish too. First time I'd been in a non-cruise ship in the ocean and the seas were only about 2 feet. No problems!!

Good to hear.
I hope my advice to stay away from the engine helped.
And watch that wind....
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Quoting Grothar:


Uh, I see we are better, eh! Look at my link in #35. lol.


Oh I don't disagree with that part..I guess i should have explained it better... yes its +9, but its also on the other side of the International date line.... so its a different day. BC is -7 or 8 depending on daylight savings. So right now in Japan its actually 11:42 PM on Monday, October 26... so almost Tuesday.
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Hmmmm, the GOM looks pretty interesting? I guess no area of interest?
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
are we going to mock T-dude into compliance on the unwritten but widely-accepted smiley convention? LOL (:


Hey, pearlandaggie. Ah, come on. Leave TD alone. He is just a student and still learning. Besides didn't you ever hear that "a smile is just a frown turned upside down" We will need him in the future to explain all these technical terms for us on this blog. LOL
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Good Morning, below is a link for the World's Time Zones
Link
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this in


The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 1.4ºC

Niño 3.4 1.1ºC

Niño 3 0.8ºC

Niño1+2 0.1ºC
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38. No kidding, this:
it can be confusing for some.
I worked as night shift producer in broadcast master control for years. I am still usually a day ahead, in my head.
Always good to "see" you.
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Good morning all. Question I know Atlanta got all the water they need to recharge there lakes can the same be said for Texas,since it isn't in the news anymore I would presume yes.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

And again, thanks, Aussie, you rock.

Oh, good, GeoffreyWPB, I was most worried about you...poor turkeys. I will be sending the turkey and friends video you linked onward as my Thanksgiving greeting this year. My sick friends will appreciate it. (:
(T-Dude's backwards smile.)

Your welcome :-)
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This is a good time zone map of the world. Just hover over the country in question and see the current time.

World Time Map and Clock:
Link
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
are we going to mock T-dude into compliance on the unwritten but widely-accepted smiley convention? LOL (:


haha gotta love it (:

Time Zones
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Ummm not.. you might have forgot the international date line :)


Uh, I see we are better, eh! Look at my link in #35. lol.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Good Morning and Thank you, too, StormW, appreciate it.


As you can see,the people are great on this site,ask a question or help,and everyone jumps in with help or suggestions.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe

Good morning Taz, Dr Masters thinks that in 10-14 days the W Caribbean Sea might be able to support a Tropical system.

However, yes, this ATL Hurricane season is pretty much winding down to its end very quietly!
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are we going to mock T-dude into compliance on the unwritten but widely-accepted smiley convention? LOL (:
Member Since: September 14, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963
41. P451
Quoting tornadodude:


Always of interest to watch a line advance like that with the individual cells propagate southward. Just an incredible signature.

Since it's the most interesting situation out there here's a 24 hour IR loop of TX. Been on a five day vacation...always good to get out of town when you can. Clear the mind, etc, all that crap.

Member Since: December 16, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 10202
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

And again, thanks, Aussie, you rock.

Oh, good, GeoffreyWPB, I was most worried about you...poor turkeys. I will be sending the turkey and friends video you linked onward as my Thanksgiving greeting this year. My sick friends will appreciate it. (:
(T-Dude's backwards smile.)


lol....i'm off to run some errands. You all have a great day :( :)
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Quoting StormW:


8:00 P.M. EDT

Good Morning and Thank you, too, StormW, appreciate it.
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The link is below. I have to keep it with me at all times when I travel because even though I have a watch that gives all the time zones. Sometime I forget where I am. When weather reports are given sometimes, it can be confusing for some.
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Quoting tornadodude:


ha Aussie already did

Tokyo
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Quoting AussieStorm:

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/
Link

And again, thanks, Aussie, you rock.

Oh, good, GeoffreyWPB, I was most worried about you...poor turkeys. I will be sending the turkey and friends video you linked onward as my Thanksgiving greeting this year. My sick friends will appreciate it. (:
(T-Dude's backwards smile.)
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Link
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Ummm not.. you might have forgot the international date line :)


who needs that ;)
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Quoting Grothar:


that is Japanese standard time, just take GMT and add 9 hours.


Ummm not.. you might have forgot the international date line :)
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Quoting Grothar:
Come on TD help Awake out and post the link for the time zones. Your first assignment for the day.


ha Aussie already did
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I bet Jim Eds is ready for TS23 in Guam
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Come on TD help Awake out and post the link for the time zones. Your first assignment for the day.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

G'morning, I need some help with time zones...should ask for a world clock for Xmas.
9 am Tuesday JST = what time EDT?

I'm sure there's a website that does the time calculations so if someone knows and will link or send it to me, I promise to bookmark and not bother the blog again.

Hi, T-Dude & Grothar...that makes 3 of us not banned...yet...wonder if we'll see our other partners in blog misdemeanors!


that is Japanese standard time, just take GMT and add 9 hours.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

THANK YOU, Aussie! Great timing. I will see if Guam friends are online and what they have to say.


SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHRE) WARNING NR 002
WTPN32 PGTW 260900
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHRE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 12.7N 149.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 149.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.4N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.1N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.5N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.7N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 14.9N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 14.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 14.4N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 149.3E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (LUPIT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.