A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Areal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 10:53 AM CDT on October 26, 2009


The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Hardin County in southeast Texas...
this includes the city of Lumberton...
Jefferson County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Sabine Pass... Port Neches... Port
Arthur... Nederland... Hamshire... Groves... Central Gardens...
Beaumont...
Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... West Orange... Vidor... Orange...
Mauriceville... Bridge City...

* until 145 PM CDT

* at 1049 am CDT... National Weather Service radar indicated a
cluster of heavy rain producing thunderstorms advancing across
Jefferson County Texas and into Orange County Texas. Extreme
rainfall rates with this activity will bring rapid lowland and urban
flooding to these areas. Rain totals to 2 to 4 inches will be
possible as the storms move northeast at 25 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause flooding of land
adjacent to small creeks and bayous. Additionally... frontage roads...
Highway underpasses... farm-to-Market and other secondary roads may
flood.

Turn around... don't drown... most flood deaths occur in automobiles.
Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one
foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the
Road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice... turn
around... dont drown.


Yuck! And looks like more coming behind it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
120. Thanks, re: Sunday we "Fall Back" but JST doesn't change.
I get that, that we fall back but JST doesn't change, but does that mean "minus 12" for EST?

Arrgghh, thought knowing UTC (universal time code, same as GMT, essentially) would solve these headaches...in the vernacular of southern gal pals, I'm a mess...
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Good morning to you. Looks like a blob but don't know if it is anything with a possibility of development.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lousy weather. But great football this week. :) Lol.


that is for sure! (8
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347


Is this a blob?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting tornadodude:


hey there (:


Lousy weather. But great football this week. :) Lol.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Weather here in grand cayman very squally.
Lots of rain in EE and winds at 32 mph
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Don't mean to restart headaches,
Sunday we "Fall Back" but JST doesn't change.
I used to live there.

Thanks for the great weather posts. The 3D radar rainfall is great. Now I can see Jacksonville ground clutter in 3D! Grin.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Good wet afternoon. :)


hey there (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Is this what you were trying to post?



Yes, Thanks,
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
117. JRRP
However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over ye
1000% agree
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5822


Good wet afternoon. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Geoman:
Let's keep it simple: To convert JST to EDT, just subtract 13 hours; this also takes into account that 0900 (9:00 am) Tuesday is 2000 (8:00 pm) Monday.

Bless you, my head hurts less now.
So will I need to subtract 14 hours next week when we change to Standard Time (EST)
or 12 hours?
Disclaimer: I'm left-handed. And have mental-pause. Not ADHD. Yet.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting NEwxguy:


As you can see,the people are great on this site,ask a question or help,and everyone jumps in with help or suggestions.

Late responding to this one:
BTW, I've noticed YOU always know whom to "poof" when necessary! I usually follow your intelligent lead...except when I'm laughing too hard to follow through.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Oh great! Everybody's typing upside down. I already had a headache.
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


thanks for posting my nieces will love this!


haha no problem, I got really bored, and found that (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting 1900hurricane:

d: ˙˙˙uǝʇɟo ooʇ ʇɔǝɟɟǝ ʇɐɥʇ ǝʌɐɥ ǝʌɐɥ oʇ ɯǝǝs ı


you know it would be pretty funny if we were banned for writing upside down (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
2nd Annual Portlight/WU 2009 Honor Walk
Link
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Quoting tornadodude:


dare I introduce this to the blog? LOL

upside down typing


thanks for posting my nieces will love this!
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Weather here in grand cayman very squally.
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Quoting tornadodude:


(: ƃoןq ǝɥʇ ןןıʞ oʇ ʎɐʍ

d: ˙˙˙uǝʇɟo ooʇ ʇɔǝɟɟǝ ʇɐɥʇ ǝʌɐɥ ǝʌɐɥ oʇ ɯǝǝs ı
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Is this what you were trying to post?



(: ƃoןq ǝɥʇ ןןıʞ oʇ ʎɐʍ
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting Grothar:
Guess those storms don't like being photographed. The image wouldn't post, which I am sure was obvious to most of you. If you have the link, go see it. It is an impressive storm.

Is this what you were trying to post?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Let's keep it simple: To convert JST to EDT, just subtract 13 hours; this also takes into account that 0900 (9:00 am) Tuesday is 2000 (8:00 pm) Monday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guess those storms don't like being photographed. The image wouldn't post, which I am sure was obvious to most of you. If you have the link, go see it. It is an impressive storm.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151


This is from the link Aussie just sent me of the TD in WPAC. They do get some large cyclones there. Guess the "Pacific" is a real misnomer. Doesn't look all that peaceful to me.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
The rain came in harder than usual this morning, and then on top of that, I was camping out in front of our football stadium with a few others to pull tickets for this weekend's game. Then this rolled in while everyone was sleeping...

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Quoting DookiePBC:


Believe it or not, I never felt the least bit sick on the water. But I did keep your advice in mind! ;-)


Weathermanwannabe:

We were out between 3 and 5 miles and went from off of Palm Beach to off of Jupiter. We caught mackeral and dolphin. I'll be eating some fresh dolphin this evening!!! :-)


Good Deal........Keep hitting those weed lines this time of the year......
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Link


Thanks, Aussie, Thanks 1900Hurricane, both good links.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Quoting 1900hurricane:

The rivers are running quite high, but there still is some work that needs to be done before the lakes are back to normal. Despite the 15 foot rise on Lake Travis over the past month or so, the lake level is still nearly 40 feet below normal.

Thank you. For you, Australia and all WPac today (my hubby's family is Irish-American):

(The famous) Old Irish Blessing

May the road rise up to meet you.
May the wind always be at your back.
May the sun shine warm upon your face,
and rains fall soft upon your fields.
And until we meet again,
May God hold you in the palm of His hand.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting AussieStorm:

No worries Mate!
it's all good


alright, well have a good nite!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting tornadodude:
sorry Aussie! wasnt trying to make fun of you, just thought it was funny :P

No worries Mate!
it's all good
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Quoting Grothar:
Does anyone have any links to WPac areas. The ones I have are not that good. I'd like to follow this one, but what I have found is not too much detail. I would appreciate it.

You could try this page, although I'm not sure if this is what you're looking for.
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Quoting Grothar:
Does anyone have any links to WPac areas. The ones I have are not that good. I'd like to follow this one, but what I have found is not too much detail. I would appreciate it.


Link
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sorry Aussie! wasnt trying to make fun of you, just thought it was funny :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Please pray for the people in Guam, Saipan and Philippines, I hope there is no lives lost and this storm stays at sea.

Thanks for the kind reminder, have done and will continue...I wonder how many different tongues and different kinds of spiritual guidance this blog can send out? Many, I'm sure. Grothar alone can send out many languages. So excellent.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Does anyone have any links to WPac areas. The ones I have are not that good. I'd like to follow this one, but what I have found is not too much detail. I would appreciate it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26151
Lake Travis water levels. Action stage is full.

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I'll leave you all with a few Local Weather reports

Rain, winds lash Sydney
Monday October 26, 2009

Heavy rain and strong winds are causing problems around Sydney this morning.

Power has been restored to 900 homes at French's Forest and Beacon Hill on Sydney's northern beaches, after a tree fell down on some major lines.

In Sydney's north west, power was cut for more than an hour in Pennant Hills, buts its since been restored.

The weather bureau says Sydney and most of the east coast of New South Wales have received heavy rain over the last 24 hours.

Bureau Forecaster Ewan Mitchell says the heaviest falls were in Sydney's north, especially in Frenchs Forest, with 114 millimetres.

Mr Mitchell says there has been good rain in many parts.

"So we're looking at more than 25 millimetres right along the coast from the Illawarra, through Sydney much of the Hunter and right through the mid north coast area up to around Coffs Harbour/ Grafton.

- ABC


And

Whopping downpour floods Sydney
Brett Dutschke, Sunday October 25, 2009


Sydney's Inner West and North Shore copped a deluge of rain on Sunday, with some suburbs having their heaviest downpour in six-to-eight months.

The flooding rain lead to havoc on the roads and put a dampener on outdoor activities.

A line of thunderstorms from just west of Sydney airport to the Central Coast, dumped 30-to-50mm of pouring rain in about an hour. More than 50mm fell in Canterbury in the hour from midday due to the slow-moving storms.

The line of thunderstorms moved slowly offshore during the afternoon, taking the heaviest rain out to sea, allowing the flooding to ease rapidly in the city.

From midday to 3pm Frenchs Forest had amassed more than 65mm, which makes it their highest daily rainfall in more than a year.

Other suburbs to gain notable rain to 3pm were :

- Canterbury 54mm (six month high)

- Marrickville 51mm (eight month high)

- Chatswood 46mm (six month high)

- Sydney 33mm (three week high)

While rain was widespread across Sydney it was much lighter further west. Falls were generally less than five millimetres west of about Strathfield, including Sydney's catchment which is still at about 57% capacity.

Rain will ease to a few light showers on Monday.

- Weatherzone

Goodnight, Will be back in the morning to check on TS 23
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Mornin'! There was a good question earlier -- are your depleted water levels better now (like Atlanta's)? And is it going to be too much of a good thing? Take care.

The rivers are running quite high, but there still is some work that needs to be done before the lakes are back to normal. Despite the 15 foot rise on Lake Travis over the past month or so, the lake level is still nearly 40 feet below normal.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
anyways all. 2am and I'm off to bed. gotta take my little boy to the doctor in the morning, he's not feeling the best.
Good night all, Stay safe


have a good night!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Mornin' Y'all. It's dumping rain in SETX this morning!!!

Mornin'! There was a good question earlier -- are your depleted water levels better now (like Atlanta's)? And is it going to be too much of a good thing? Take care.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
anyways all. 2am and I'm off to bed. gotta take my little boy to the doctor in the morning, he's not feeling the best.
Good night all, Stay safe
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Mornin' Y'all. It's dumping rain in SETX this morning!!!
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Quoting tornadodude:


uɐɯ ƃuıppıʞ ʇsnɾ ןoן ¿ǝıssnɐ 'ɐıןɐɹʇsnɐ uı ǝʞıן ʞooן sʇsod ɹno ʇɐɥʍ sıɥʇ sı 'os


Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347
Quoting tornadodude:


is this what our posts look like in australia, aussie? lol just kidding man

It looks fine to me
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Quoting CosmicEvents:

Good to hear.
I hope my advice to stay away from the engine helped.
And watch that wind....


Believe it or not, I never felt the least bit sick on the water. But I did keep your advice in mind! ;-)


Weathermanwannabe:

We were out between 3 and 5 miles and went from off of Palm Beach to off of Jupiter. We caught mackeral and dolphin. I'll be eating some fresh dolphin this evening!!! :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


I read that easily. how did u do that?


dare I introduce this to the blog? LOL

upside down typing
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8347

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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