A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Vorticity is on the increase down in the NW Caribbean I see.


Yep no Convergence but, good Divergence tho....Shear is around 20kts...
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

No comparison, re age. I was in gas line in Datsun 510.
T-Dude, I don't think USDA-APHIS or post office will let me send pot roast (can't afford Fed-Ex), but you're welcome to it when the day comes you interview at NOAA, just a mile or two down the road. In the meantime, happy carb-loading at the U. (I assume college food hasn't changed too much, but I hear they offer salad bars now.)
Okay, bye for now, for real now. Can't multi-task like Gen. X, Y, (Z?)


haha well I will remember that! and yes, there are plenty of carbs here :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol @ visas. Yeah the traffic is a nightmare. Dad used to ride his bicycle to work at the Pentagon to avoid that traffic. And that was way back when. Guess he was an environmentalist before it was cool. Although there was a gas shortage in the 70's. Yipe! My age is showing. :) Lol.

No comparison, re age. I was in gas line in Datsun 510.
T-Dude, I don't think USDA-APHIS or post office will let me send pot roast (can't afford Fed-Ex), but you're welcome to it when the day comes you interview at NOAA, just a mile or two down the road. In the meantime, happy carb-loading at the U. (I assume college food hasn't changed too much, but I hear they offer salad bars now.)
Okay, bye for now, for real now. Can't multi-task like Gen. X, Y, (Z?)
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting kmanislander:



Vorticity is on the increase down in the NW Caribbean I see.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good afternoon

That is similar to what I have on my station at home. At 9:57 this morning I recorded a wind gust of 39 mph.

Right now it is sustained at about 19 mph but gusting to 33 mph.

It feels like the conditions we experience this time of year when a depression is trying to form in the area. I also noticed that 850 mb vorticity is now showing up just to the W of us.

With the front traversing the GOM this weather will not likely make it much further W. Wind shear is on the high side now but still bears watching IMO


I noticed that too Kman

143. TampaSpin 1:01 PM EDT on October 26, 2009
Quoting 19N81W:
just for the info of the pros on here...we have sustained rain and thunderstorms and winds of about 25 mph. Looks to be somewhat organized on the ground.


Nothing seems to be at the surface but, there is now a 850mb Vorticity return that was not there a few hours ago...something to watch.
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Quoting StormChaser81:
Welcome to Football Underground...Now thats some blog killing.


yeah, boring tropics day
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting F0XNEWS:


ahhh

But that's an insult to Peyton, nobody calls the audibles better than he.

I'm calm, by the way. Calm as a cucumber.


cool
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Coming down hard in Corpus Christi right now

Photobucket
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Welcome to Football Underground...Now thats some blog killing.
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Compare the above to 3 hours ago

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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

PERFECT for football right now -- sunny with a slight chill. But right now tonight looks mixed for tonight at FedEx, might be okay. Arlington's across the river but we issue visas upon occasion! Oh, the traffic on those bridges, eek!
I think I'll just follow Terps basketball. Pro sports too depressing except for Caps.
(Landover, MD)
Tonight: Mainly cloudy. A few sprinkles possible. Low 48F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.


Lol @ visas. Yeah the traffic is a nightmare. Dad used to ride his bicycle to work at the Pentagon to avoid that traffic. And that was way back when. Guess he was an environmentalist before it was cool. Although there was a gas shortage in the 70's. Yipe! My age is showing. :) Lol.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
Very interesting I see we had wind gusts up to 40 mph here today at Owen Roberts airport grand Cayman.


Good afternoon

That is similar to what I have on my station at home. At 9:57 this morning I recorded a wind gust of 39 mph.

Right now it is sustained at about 19 mph but gusting to 33 mph.

It feels like the conditions we experience this time of year when a depression is trying to form in the area. I also noticed that 850 mb vorticity is now showing up just to the W of us.

With the front traversing the GOM this weather will not likely make it much further W. Wind shear is on the high side now but still bears watching IMO
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
awwwk time for me to go...gotta' get a pot roast going or I'll boil over.


ha take care! send some of that my way (:
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting F0XNEWS:


??

Peyton Manning doesn't even need a coach calling plays. Infact, the Colts thrive on Peyton creating his own. Manning definetly can call plays better than Jim Zorn. Hell, he can call plays better than three quarters of the offensive coordinators in the country.


I was calling you Peyton Manning, since you knew what audible to call, calm down
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Manning is the audible master
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
awwwk time for me to go...gotta' get a pot roast going or I'll boil over.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
hi guys,
i saw this and thought i'd share:Link

new study on the washington state volcanoes
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1634
Quoting tornadodude:


just curious, but could you? I know I couldnt

+1 T-Dude
I hope you ARE actually talking to FOXNEWS (AS IF, pfftt)!!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting F0XNEWS:


I'm sure I could. If there are 8 men in the box showing run blitz and my half back has a nagging ankle injury I would opt for the quick hit across the middle and NOT change the single back lead dive into a sweep for negative gain.

Yes, I am a hall of fame armchair quarterback indeed.


Peyton Manning?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting homelesswanderer:


OUCH! Poor guy. Makes you wonder how motivated they'll be to win tonight. That's almost as bad as Philly fans booing Santa Claus. What's the weather going to be like? I used to live in DC. Well, Arlington, but same thing. Lol. We had all four seasons there. :)

PERFECT for football right now -- sunny with a slight chill. But right now, looks mixed for tonight at FedEx, might be okay. Arlington's across the river but we issue visas upon occasion! Oh, the traffic on those bridges, eek!
I think I'll just follow Terps basketball. Pro sports too depressing except for Caps.
(Landover, MD)
Tonight: Mainly cloudy. A few sprinkles possible. Low 48F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting F0XNEWS:
Jim Zorn couldn't even call a good audible when he was quarterbacking for the SeaChickens in the 70's



just curious, but could you? I know I couldnt
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Link
Very interesting I see we had wind gusts up to 40 mph here today at Owen Roberts airport grand Cayman.
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Quoting F0XNEWS:
Sun curtains?! Ain't that Jumbotron in Big D big enough to block out a neutron star?


haha good call
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting F0XNEWS:
Sun curtains?! Ain't that Jumbotron in Big D big enough to block out a neutron star?


Lol. Good point.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Sorry, I need to look at the directions for posting links. I know it's not hard...

Jim Zorn has been stripped of his playcalling "duties." The Miami Herald spares no punches in reporting:
Jim Zorn is punching bag for Washington Redskins
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/football/story/1299135.html

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/thehuddle/post/2009/10/cracks-showing-in-redskins-new-commi tment-to-jim-zorn/1

Even the Weather Not So Much Channel is reporting on it.


OUCH! Poor guy. Makes you wonder how motivated they'll be to win tonight. That's almost as bad as Philly fans booing Santa Claus. What's the weather going to be like? I used to live in DC. Well, Arlington, but same thing. Lol. We had all four seasons there. :)
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah. I can't believe that coach was mad because they didn't drop the sun curtains. Lol. What would he have said if the stadium had no roof? Geesh!



haha I know! I guess he is just used to the Georgia Dome
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


me too! the Cowboys played very well yesterday.

It was rather sunny in the stadium too


Yeah. I can't believe that coach was mad because they didn't drop the sun curtains. Lol. What would he have said if the stadium had no roof? Geesh!

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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Oh no. What happened?


Sorry, I need to look at the directions for posting links. I know it's not hard...

Jim Zorn has been stripped of his playcalling "duties." The Miami Herald spares no punches in reporting:
Jim Zorn is punching bag for Washington Redskins
http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/football/story/1299135.html

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/thehuddle/post/2009/10/cracks-showing-in-redskins-new-commi tment-to-jim-zorn/1

Even the Weather Not So Much Channel is reporting on it.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting 19N81W:
just for the info of the pros on here...we have sustained rain and thunderstorms and winds of about 25 mph. Looks to be somewhat organized on the ground.


Nothing seems to be at the surface but, there is now a 850mb Vorticity return that was not there a few hours ago...something to watch.

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Quoting homelesswanderer:


OOOH. Ok. I just read where Gibbs crushed the rumor he was coming back as GM. Hope they win tonight. :)


me too! the Cowboys played very well yesterday.

It was rather sunny in the stadium too
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Doesn't look like a good golf day on Cayman.
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Quoting tornadodude:


I assume you are referring to Jim Zorn? In my opinion he hasnt exactly led his team very well this year


OOOH. Ok. I just read where Gibbs crushed the rumor he was coming back as GM. Hope they win tonight. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, must have missed his update. I am trying to work and think at the same time. Bad combination.


No problem. You're welcome. :) I can't multitask at all. Lol.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Oh no. What happened?


I assume you are referring to Jim Zorn? In my opinion he hasnt exactly led his team very well this year
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Grothar:


Is this a blob?

Yes, it is a blob, but likely to get sheared by / absorbed into the front that is currently in SE TX.
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Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Not great in the land of Deadskins. Poor coach.


Oh no. What happened?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


From StormW this morning.

An area of disturbed weather is in the GOMEX, and will bring increased POPS (50-60%) to west central Florida late tonight, through tomorrow.




Thanks, must have missed his update. I am trying to work and think at the same time. Bad combination.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26477
just for the info of the pros on here...we have sustained rain and thunderstorms and winds of about 25 mph. Looks to be somewhat organized on the ground.
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Tropical Update
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Lafayette, Purdue University Airport
Lat: 40.43 Lon: -86.93 Elev: 623
Last Update on Oct 26, 11:54 am EDT

Partly Cloudy

63 °F
(17 °C)
Humidity: 41 %
Wind Speed: Vrbl 7 MPH
Barometer: 30.10" (1019.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 39 °F (4 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Grothar:


Is this a blob?


From StormW this morning.

An area of disturbed weather is in the GOMEX, and will bring increased POPS (50-60%) to west central Florida late tonight, through tomorrow.


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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lousy weather. But great football this week. :) Lol.

Not great in the land of Deadskins. Poor coach.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Lots of rain in EE and winds at 32 mph

WE had a bad squall here in South Sound about an hour ago, not sure what the winds were probably 30-35mph in my estimation sustain for quite awhile.
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Areal Flood Advisory, Flash Flood Watch
Statement as of 10:53 AM CDT on October 26, 2009


The National Weather Service in Lake Charles has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
southeastern Hardin County in southeast Texas...
this includes the city of Lumberton...
Jefferson County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... Sabine Pass... Port Neches... Port
Arthur... Nederland... Hamshire... Groves... Central Gardens...
Beaumont...
Orange County in southeast Texas...
this includes the cities of... West Orange... Vidor... Orange...
Mauriceville... Bridge City...

* until 145 PM CDT

* at 1049 am CDT... National Weather Service radar indicated a
cluster of heavy rain producing thunderstorms advancing across
Jefferson County Texas and into Orange County Texas. Extreme
rainfall rates with this activity will bring rapid lowland and urban
flooding to these areas. Rain totals to 2 to 4 inches will be
possible as the storms move northeast at 25 mph.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Most flood deaths occur in automobiles. Never drive your vehicle into
areas where the water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually
deeper than they appear. Just one foot of flowing water is powerful
enough to sweep vehicles off the Road. When encountering flooded
roads make the smart choice... turn around... dont drown.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall may cause flooding of land
adjacent to small creeks and bayous. Additionally... frontage roads...
Highway underpasses... farm-to-Market and other secondary roads may
flood.

Turn around... don't drown... most flood deaths occur in automobiles.
Never drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. Just one
foot of flowing water is powerful enough to sweep vehicles off the
Road. When encountering flooded roads make the smart choice... turn
around... dont drown.


Yuck! And looks like more coming behind it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.