A quiet week for the Atlantic; another typhoon for the Philippines?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on October 26, 2009

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There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models is calling for tropical storm formation over the next seven days. This should be a quiet week in the region we need to be most concerned about for a late-season hurricane--the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is forecast to be marginal for tropical storm development this week, and most of the Caribbean is very dry. However, next week moisture will be on the increase and wind shear is expected to be low enough to support tropical storm development, so we will need to be more alert for tropical storm development then. I have a sense that this hurricane season may not be over yet. Wind shear hasn't risen to the high levels we usually see by this time of year, and the waters are still very warm in the Western Caribbean. The past ten years have seen five hurricanes (four of them major hurricanes) form in the Caribbean later than today's date. The five storms were Category 4 Paloma, which became a hurricane on November 7, 2008; Category 1 Noel, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2007; Category 3 Beta, which became a hurricane on October 29, 2005; Category 4 Michelle, which became a hurricane on November 2, 2001; and Category 4 Lenny, which became a hurricane on November 15, 1999.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor image of the Caribbean shows plenty of dry air in the regions of the Western Caribbean where late-season tropical tropical storm development usually occurs. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Another typhoon for the Philippines?
The typhoon-weary Philippine Islands have a new worry--Tropical Depression 23 has formed east of the islands, and appears likely to develop into a typhoon that will threaten the Philippines this weekend. The Philippines got a major reprieve this past weekend, when Super Typhoon Lupit weakened and swerved out to sea unexpectedly, missing the islands.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Tuesday, when I'll present the forecast for winter in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WaterWitch11:


i know, so why are the other scientist so sure that they are not connected? yes i know this is not a volcano blog!


I do not believe the article said that the magma chamber under Mt. St. Helen's and the one under Yellowstone were connected.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting TampaSpin:


Interesting in SW Caribbean.....hitting S. Florida......OH NO......here we go again.....LOL


"This is like deja vu all over again." - Yogi Berra.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Interesting in SW Caribbean.....hitting S. Florida......OH NO......here we go again.....LOL


calling all casters? LOL
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Drak. I saw that little blob this morning. What is it this time, a remnant of Paloma? lol


The development is forecasted for next week. No association to what is currently in the Caribbean.
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Quoting F0XNEWS:


Continentally speaking, right down the street.



i know, so why are the other scientist so sure that they are not connected? yes i know this is not a volcano blog!
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1570
The GFS and the GFS-ensembles show a decent upward phase in the Caribbean and GOM. The long-range forecast show nice upper level anticyclonic flow and upper level ridging dominating the Caribbean and portions of the GOM.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Long range GGEM showing something in the long-range as well. Jeff Masters's sense may have something to it now.


Interesting in SW Caribbean.....hitting S. Florida......OH NO......here we go again.....LOL
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Quoting Drakoen:


In the Caribbean... again...


Thanks, Drak. I saw that little blob this morning. What is it this time, a remnant of Paloma? lol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Long range GGEM showing something in the long-range as well. Jeff Masters's sense may have something to it now.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Just read it.....interesting how they link the Magna from St. Helen to the Yellowstone.....makes sense tho.


in the grand scheme of things, they are really not that far apart
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1570
Quoting NRAamy:
I mean...you guys are talking football on here!!! I should be able to post a Halloween graphic!!!!!!


Don't do it Amy!!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting Grothar:


Where????


In the Caribbean... again...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Long-range computer model runs of the GFS and the ECMWF indicate the possibility of tropical cyclone formation next week.


Where????
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Long-range computer model runs of the GFS and the ECMWF indicate the possibility of tropical cyclone formation next week.
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Quoting TampaSpin:



Sorry no i didn't....let me look back.


Just read it.....interesting how they link the Magna from St. Helen to the Yellowstone.....makes sense tho.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Here is the lower level steering.....the mid looks about the same...



I hope to God that SW Atlantic Ridge eventually brakes down as forecast. For three straight days the NWS has painted a radically different picture for central Florida in the long range discussion.

By the way, it would be !00 percent unprecedented for that ridge to strengthen this time of year(1-2 weeks of hot humid weather in Orlando would not be flattering)

The long-range(day 5-7) models are just all over the place(as per the Mobile NWS discussion). I desperately long and hope the westerlies win out in time for Halloween!!!
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Quoting WaterWitch11:


hi tampa,


did you see my post about the volcanoes in WA?



Sorry no i didn't....let me look back.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Post it in my picture section first.


hi tampa,


did you see my post about the volcanoes in WA?
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1570
Quoting NRAamy:
I agree but, you know the bad guys better than anyone.......

yep...they're probably salivating right now...waiting for me to post it so they can flag it....


Post it in my picture section first.
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Quoting NRAamy:
I agree but, you know the bad guys better than anyone.......

yep...they're probably salivating right now...waiting for me to post it so they can flag it....


LMAO that puts a funny image in my head
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
I agree but, you know the bad guys better than anyone.......

yep...they're probably salivating right now...waiting for me to post it so they can flag it....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting NRAamy:
I mean...you guys are talking football on here!!! I should be able to post a Halloween graphic!!!!!!


haha go for it ;)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting NRAamy:
I mean...you guys are talking football on here!!! I should be able to post a Halloween graphic!!!!!!


I agree but, you know the bad guys better than anyone.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I mean...you guys are talking football on here!!! I should be able to post a Halloween graphic!!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting NRAamy:
can I post a Halloween graphic on here without getting banned? I'm up to 93 hours per ban on the main blog....I'd really like some guidance here!

;)



What the hell Amy.....its only 93hrs....LOL That not 4 whole days....LOL
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Quoting NRAamy:
can I post a Halloween graphic on here without getting banned? I'm up to 93 hours per ban on the main blog....I'd really like some guidance here!

;)


haha well, how bout a link to it?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201


Interesting spin off the East coast of Florida.




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can I post a Halloween graphic on here without getting banned? I'm up to 93 hours per ban on the main blog....I'd really like some guidance here!

;)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting TampaSpin:


ANYthing trying to develop would be very slow to do so...


That is the general rule this time of year for sure. For the time being lots of rain here with close to an inch since midnight last night.

There are about 15 whistling ducks camped out in my back yard enjoying the water that has settled there and waiting for dinner LOL.

Will catch up with you later. Have to run.
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Quoting kmanislander:
From the 2:05 discussion:

"a surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from wrn Cuba
near 22n85w to Nicaragua near 13n84w."


ANYthing trying to develop would be very slow to do so...
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From the 2:05 discussion:

"a surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean from wrn Cuba
near 22n85w to Nicaragua near 13n84w."
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Here is the lower level steering.....the mid looks about the same...

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Quoting superpete:
Post 167:Kman. Looks like the convection currently over our area is propogating westward,despite the dry air Dr. M mentiones above?


Yes, it has been moving generally W but fairly slowly. The flow is out of the SW in the GOM so would expect this unsettled weather to hang around some.
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Summer is pushing back. May take a SW ATL/Carib TC before the battle is over. Winter: 1st & goal (we know what the final score will be).
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep i seen that.....funny its about the only area that has shear in the 20kts range....everything else is higher around.....i know Shear is very high in the GOM also but a Surface Low appears to be developing there also...Florida could get a good soaking if that happens as it appears.


Shear has been falling in this area if you believe the tendency map. The updated shear map will confirm or indicate otherwise.
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Below Cuba may have a shot, shear also dropping.
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Vorticity at 850mb
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Post 167:Kman. Looks like the convection currently over our area is propogating westward,despite the dry air Dr. M mentiones above?
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Quoting kmanislander:


The recent convergence map is also starting to show some action in the area.


Yep i seen that.....funny its about the only area that has shear in the 20kts range....everything else is higher around.....i know Shear is very high in the GOM also but a Surface Low appears to be developing there also...Florida could get a good soaking if that happens as it appears.
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Humor in Comments
BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Have a nice day. :) I'm out for awhile too. Bye everyone.


later! (8
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

No comparison, re age. I was in gas line in Datsun 510.
T-Dude, I don't think USDA-APHIS or post office will let me send pot roast (can't afford Fed-Ex), but you're welcome to it when the day comes you interview at NOAA, just a mile or two down the road. In the meantime, happy carb-loading at the U. (I assume college food hasn't changed too much, but I hear they offer salad bars now.)
Okay, bye for now, for real now. Can't multi-task like Gen. X, Y, (Z?)


Have a nice day. :) I'm out for awhile too. Bye everyone.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep no Convergence but, good Divergence tho....Shear is around 20kts...


The recent convergence map is also starting to show some action in the area.
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173 and 174

Very blustery here all day. My pool chairs blew off the deck !
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Vorticity is on the increase down in the NW Caribbean I see.


Yep no Convergence but, good Divergence tho....Shear is around 20kts...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.