Western Caribbean disturbance less organized; Typhoon Lupit may spare Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2009

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A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is over the Southwest Caribbean near 12N 83W, off the coast of Nicaragua. This low, in combination with an upper-level trough of low pressure, is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity over the Western Caribbean and Central America. A second 1008 mb low pressure area is over the Pacific Ocean near the coast of Costa Rica. The two lows appear to be competing with each other, with the result that the organization of the thunderstorm activity over the region is less than yesterday's. Recent satellite loops show little change in the areal coverage or intensity of the thunderstorms this morning. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L on Tuesday, but is no longer issuing model products for it. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the Western Caribbean, but last night's pass showed no signs of a surface circulation. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots, and there is a deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, so we still need to keep an eye on this disturbance. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. No models predict development of this system over the next seven days, but I'll continue to give a medium (30 - 50% chance) that a Western Caribbean tropical depression will form sometime in the next ten days.

NHC is also mentioning an area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas, associated with a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This disturbance is moving slowly westwards towards Florida, and is under very high wind shear of 40 knots. No development is likely due to the high shear.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of twin surface low pressure systems, on either side of Central America.

Typhoon Lupit may spare the Philippines
Typhoon Lupit continues to struggle with dry air, which has significantly disrupted the typhoon's inner core, leading to a partial collapse of the eyewall. Lupit is now a minimal Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Recent microwave imagery shows that the typhoon is missing a large portion of its western eyewall, and this morning's infrared satellite loop shows that the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is rather disorganized. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a dangerous rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding twelve inches per day near its core (Figure 2).

While it is too early to be confident of this forecast, it now appears that Lupit will spare the Philippines a direct hit and a punishing deluge of 12+ inches of rain. The typhoon has slowed in reaction to a collapse of the steering currents, and most of the models are now calling for Lupit to stall just offshore, or recurve to the northeast. The very slow motion of the storm means that it will stir up large quantities of cool water from the depths that will then surround the storm, making re-intensification unlikely, and decreasing the amount of rain the storm is able to produce. The typhoon's core of heaviest rain appears likely to remain offshore, though the extreme northern portion of Luzon Island may still receive 6 - 12 inches of rain before the storm finally departs.

Storm chaser Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's impact, and has photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Forecast rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday 10/23/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of twelve inches (red colors) near its core. However, this core of heavy rain will remain offshore over at least the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting IKE:
NHC has stopped mentioning the western Caribbean disturbance....



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




I don't know if I would give up on it yet though. All that moisture to the east and to the west.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Weather456:


only those 2 models

and even though show do drop as you said, the uncertainty with this one is great.
I was going by the maps you posted. Thats why i asked if i was right? I appreciate the uncertainty and im not trying to set off a bunch of alarms in the GOM! As much as i love hurricanes, it gets my attention when a system has even the slightest potiential to enter the GOM, because it has no where to go but land! I like the way you forecast! I saw what year you were born the other day and was suprised, because of your insightfullness! Looks like you have a good long career ahead of you.
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760. IKE
NHC has stopped mentioning the western Caribbean disturbance....


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860


Looks like shear has decreased somewhat since yesterday except for the small area of 40 kt just east of Jamaica.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
This is Key West Weathers take on all this. The area in the Sw Caribbean is not even a player in their forcast


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PRESENT A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE BAHAMAS TROUGH.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...SLIDING THE MID/UPPER
LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...THERE
REMAINS QUITE A SPREAD AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE GFS AND SREF MEAN
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT WHICH HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF DEPICT A WEAKER OPEN TROUGH
THAT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD TEND TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONFINED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
KEYS...WHILE THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS WOULD ALLOW THE MORE FAVORABLE
REGION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER POTENTIAL COMPLICATION WILL BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THERE ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT THE STRONGER GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE BAHAMAS TROUGH IS LIKELY OVERDONE...AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST PERIODS...AND WILL GO WITH JUST LOW END CHANCE POPS
OF 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.
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Our met service has latched onto the disturbance.

NEWS RELEASE

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT WEATEHR OVER JAMAICA

An area of Low pressure across the southwestern Caribbean with associated showers and thunderstorms is expected to affect Jamaica starting Friday night and continue through to Sunday. These showers and thunderstorms which may be heavy at times could cause flooding of low lying and flood prone areas.

Fishers and other marine interest are advised to exercise caution due to strong winds and rough seas, expected during thunderstorms over inshore and offshore areas.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.

vtj
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Good Morning!
Hades - as always thanks for the Philippines update..SurfGodfather has been lurking and I send him updates, dislocated his shoulder surfing waves from the last Typhoon

Curious about this cold front sliding 'cross the belly of the Gulf. This report from the Surfer's perspective: AURASURF

Friday 6am updater 1004mb low pressure over LA this am with another low farther N, attendant cold front in the middle gulf. All the energy will be moving away towards the northern plains. How fast this happens will affect how much swell we see from this system. Right now winds in the middle gulf have just started at 20 plus from the WNW and NW. So it depends on how long it blows but we should see a little swell late Saturday. This will be a quick 12-18hr window that will mostly happen Saturday night(doh) with smaller conditions for Sunday am going back to flat by late Sunday. I'm sticking with the call for a 1-2ft WNW swell, but it looks 6hrs earlier than Wednesday's forcast so late Saturday may be the time. Not an epic swell, but keep an eye on the cams Saturday pm and Sunday am, there is a chance for a small, clean bump somewhere. Have a good day.
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Quoting Weather456:


From my blog

Shower activity has diminished along the feature and this is due both a combination of moderate shear and dry air associated with a lingering upper trough (which I don't think was supposed do this) north of the area.
It looks to me like the dry air is decreasing somewhat. Is it possible that the moisture coming down across the Bahamas is helping to push the dry air out ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 are the GFS/CMC the only models at this time forecasting a tropical storm in the SE/GOM early next week? I know you dont want to speculate this far out about the SE/GOM, but looks like if it even makes it the SE/GOM, that the wind sheer continues to drop over the whole GOM over the next 122 hours! Am i right?


only those 2 models

and even though show do drop as you said, the uncertainty with this one is great.
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Quoting Weather456:


120 hrs
456 are the GFS/CMC the only models at this time forecasting a tropical storm in the SE/GOM early next week? I know you dont want to speculate this far out about the SE/GOM, but looks like if it even makes it the SE/GOM, that the wind sheer continues to drop over the whole GOM over the next 122 hours! Am i right?
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks for being more specific to my questions. Is that a 144 hours of wind sheer maps?


120 hrs
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Quoting Keys99:


Are there any 24 or 48 hour Wv loops around? I think that will show how the dry air played a big part in all of this.


That comment wasn't related to 94L but the 2009 hurricane season

You can get 48 hr loops here and dry air did play a role

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Quoting Weather456:


Again, from my blog

Most of the models show the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico through early next week where they cannot agree on its faith. Some have it absorbed into a frontal boundary while the GFS/CMC develops it into a tropical storm in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, I feel the disturbance will remain weak in the Caribbean but uncertain as to what it might do when it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Here's the shear forecast...it remains low in the SE GOM

Thanks for being more specific to my questions. Is that a 144 hours of wind sheer maps?
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Quoting Weather456:


El Nino cannot explain why the AEJ has been weaker than normal nor why the Atlantic has been drier than normal. El Nino can only explain the wind shear and increase in trades factors. Thus, there are other factors that played a role this year.


Are there any 24 or 48 hour Wv loops around? I think that will show how the dry air played a big part in all of this.
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Here's another factor other than El Nino why the tropical atmosphere is so stable

The global tropical atmosphere temperature taken by AMSU found the near surface to be warmer in 2009 than in 2008 but 0.19 degrees F cooler in 2009 from 400 mb to 5mb (near the tropopause and stratosphere).
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746. MahFL
Goodmoring all. Seems the persistent blob in the deep carib is erm... persistent.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
456, If this AOI becomes a GOM system early next week, as the scenerio you mentioned in your blog. Will wind sheer be favorable?


Again, from my blog

Most of the models show the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico through early next week where they cannot agree on its faith. Some have it absorbed into a frontal boundary while the GFS/CMC develops it into a tropical storm in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, I feel the disturbance will remain weak in the Caribbean but uncertain as to what it might do when it enters the Gulf of Mexico

Here's the shear forecast...it remains low in the SE GOM

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Quoting Weather456:


From my blog

Shower activity has diminished along the feature and this is due both a combination of moderate shear and dry air associated with a lingering upper trough (which I don't think was supposed do this) north of the area.
thanks
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456, If this AOI becomes a GOM system early next week, as the scenerio you mentioned in your blog. Will wind sheer be favorable?
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Quoting Weather456:


From my blog

Shower activity has diminished along the feature and this is due both a combination of moderate shear and dry air associated with a lingering upper trough (which I don't think was supposed do this) north of the area.
Looks like a little convection is flaring up around the "coc" again though.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting stormsurge39:
Goodmorning 456, Thank you for your post! Is dry air the only factor that is inhibiting developement at this point?


From my blog

Shower activity has diminished along the feature and this is due both a combination of moderate shear and dry air associated with a lingering upper trough (which I don't think was supposed do this) north of the area.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I read somewhere that El Nino tends to suppress the effects of the MJO, so perhaps the upward motion pulses that we did get were all hindered by El Nino?

As for the AEJ, maybe it's because Africa was drier than normal this year? I'm not saying it was, but I didn't pay close attention to whether or not Africa was wetter or drier than normal this year, respectively.

Just a couple of thoughts.


El Nino suppresses the MJO? I've never heard that.

Also if Africa was drier that would of increase the moisture gradient between Sahara and Sub-Sahara so in effect the AEJ would intensify.
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Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update
Goodmorning 456, Thank you for your post! Is dry air the only factor that is inhibiting developement at this point?
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Quoting leftovers:
read? korieth thought all you young guys do is talk on the cell tgif


I'm much different from your typical 18 year old. I figure if I have earned the legal status of "adult" (in the United States at least), then I should be obligated to act like one.

Also, unlike most people my age, I am not at all materialistic -- I value more important things.
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Quoting Weather456:


El Nino cannot explain why the AEJ has been weaker than normal nor why the Atlantic has been drier than normal. El Nino can only explain the wind shear and increase in trades factors. Thus, there are other factors that played a role this year.


I read somewhere that El Nino tends to suppress the effects of the MJO, so perhaps the upward motion pulses that we did get were all hindered by El Nino?

As for the AEJ, maybe it's because Africa was drier than normal this year? I'm not saying it was, but I didn't pay close attention to whether or not Africa was wetter or drier than normal this year, respectively.

Just a couple of thoughts.
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Quoting melwerle:
Our insurance company just cancelled our policy for homeowners - glad the season is almost over. Gotta love GA Farm Bureau...they were happy to take our money forever while we were in the house, it's been vacant for a few months while it's being sold and now it's "see ya..." thank God for Lloyds of London...they are the only ones who insure at a reasonable price for a short term gig. We would be totally screwed if the season was in full force and it was a rough season...

My insurance company just canceled homeowners policies too. Apparently the head office in Trinidad(I think) has gotten into some kind of difficulties. Has to run around like crazy looking for another insurance company. Don't want to be without insurance in the heart of hurricane season. Luckily it was only 1 day without insurance.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Good Morning Everyone

Getting ready for a three hour plane ride to Chicago. I'm sure the flight will be packed!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Or maybe it's just El Nino...


El Nino cannot explain why the AEJ has been weaker than normal nor why the Atlantic has been drier than normal. El Nino can only explain the wind shear and increase in trades factors. Thus, there are other factors that played a role this year.
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Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update
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730. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "RAMIL" has weakened into a Tropical Storm and remained almost stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #23
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ramil (Lupit) located at 18.9ºN 122.6ºE or 110 kms east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 km/h (55 kts) with gustiness up to 135 km/h (70 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Northern Cagayan
2.Babuyan
3.Calayan Islands
4.Batanes Group

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Rest of Cagayan
2.Ilocos Norte
3.Apayao

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Ilocos Sur
2.Abra
3.Kalinga
4.Mt. Province
5.Isabela
6.Ifugao
7.Quirino
8.Northern Aurora

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
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Our insurance company just cancelled our policy for homeowners - glad the season is almost over. Gotta love GA Farm Bureau...they were happy to take our money forever while we were in the house, it's been vacant for a few months while it's being sold and now it's "see ya..." thank God for Lloyds of London...they are the only ones who insure at a reasonable price for a short term gig. We would be totally screwed if the season was in full force and it was a rough season...

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Quoting markymark1973:
The dry air and shear from that remnant trough dug in to the southern Caribbean and made X94L go POOF. Another bust in the books for the 2009 season. The ECMWF sniffed out some trash this time. Goes to show you this is not a normal season and has been over with for quite a while. I believe there is more going on in the atmosphere than we can see that is prohibiting development this season.


Or maybe it's just El Nino...
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727. xcool
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The dry air and shear from that remnant trough dug in to the southern Caribbean and made X94L go POOF. Another bust in the books for the 2009 season. The ECMWF sniffed out some trash this time. Goes to show you this is not a normal season and has been over with for quite a while. I believe there is more going on in the atmosphere than we can see that is prohibiting development this season.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


As long as your Wife/GF/SO thinks its MUST..and you know its MIGHT.... and you learn how to say "Yes Dear", then you to can celebrate your 30th anniversary like we did the other day... ROFLMAO, both sick with the swine flu and not talking :)


Wome. At least the ones i've grown up with.
Quoting Patrap:


She has a Big addy list too,,I got one from her Brother yesterday.

I sent him a Former US Chief Executives Info..
..snicker,snort,ack,,LOL


Tisk tisk Patty the men in black shall be waiting for you :P.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting Grothar:


Looks like it's going straight for the west coast of Florida. I have a sister who lives there right on the coast; don't care for her much, but I am worried about the rest who do. They can get quite nasty, my sister, too!


that thing look much scarier than the blobs. really stretching its' arm out across the gulf
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723. Skyepony (Mod)
The front coming toward FL is the classic El Nino winter front. Really increases the storminess & tornado out breaks. FL's (not so) dry season outlook.
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722. Skyepony (Mod)
the green one went to San Fransisco yesterday..the humans ( red) have a comprtable lead over the models on Neki..
Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
OFCL CONSTANT 49.3 103.4 206.9 273 -1
HWRF DECREASING 88.1 175.9 235.9 347.1 502.4
MM5B INCREASING 88.2 196.4 242.2 626.3 800.3
GFDL CONSTANT 93.7 152.1 224.3 368.6 525.9
BAMD CONSTANT 112.5 201.5 311.9 435.1 477.3
LBAR INCREASING 147.5 198.2 224.7 278.9 354.8

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My God the hurricane season going to end the way it started tracking blobs across the gulf of Mexico.
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Night all, have fun.. looking forward to seeing what the morning brings.. other then TGIF



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Looks like it's going straight for the west coast of Florida. I have a sister who lives there right on the coast; don't care for her much, but I am worried about the rest who do. They can get quite nasty, my sister, too!
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there is about as much activity in the SW Caribbean as my bedroom!! night all and plenty sunshine and drought on the way!! ye haa!!lets hope the cold fronts bring a sprinkle cuz from what I see its done..and been looking at it for 20 years....
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
????????



nevere mine lol
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The AOI in the SW Carribean looks like toast.
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Good night everyone. Tomorrow is another day.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Tazmanian:
.
????????
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.
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.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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