Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1039. hydrus
3:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Wow Hydrus,
Pretty disturbing picture you paint. Is that an ad campaign for flood insurance? Seriously, if you live anywhere in Florida you really ought to have flood insurance. Consider that if you don't live in a mandatory flood insurance zone it only costs about $300 a year for that piece of mind. You never know when a frontal boundary or tropical system might stall out and dump tons of rain on an area. Just ask victims of Faye!
I am with you on that, I have lived in Florida for over 40 years and have seen many floods. It is good to have the insurance!
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536
1038. hurricanejunky
3:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Wow Hydrus,
Pretty disturbing picture you paint. Is that an ad campaign for flood insurance? Seriously, if you live anywhere in Florida you really ought to have flood insurance. Consider that if you don't live in a mandatory flood insurance zone it only costs about $300 a year for that piece of mind. You never know when a frontal boundary or tropical system might stall out and dump tons of rain on an area. Just ask victims of Faye!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
1037. hydrus
2:58 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


You're right...it's all about the follow through
The nightmare storm for S.W. Florida. Huge disturbance moves off the Northern coast of South America into S.W. Caribbean with the water temperatures at record levels and absolutely no shear. The HUGE disturbance intensifies rapidly due to the perfect conditions. It moves NNW toward the Yucatan Channel at 8 knots. Now as a cat-4 cruising through the majestic channel and tearing Cuba a new one (again), our hurricane changes direction and positions itself 200 miles S.W. of the S.W. Florida coast. It intensifies further going to cat-5 status. the strongest and largest recorded in the Atlantic Basin with sustained winds of 195 mph with gusts around 250 mph. Due to its proximity to the coast and very slow movement, it dumps nearly 100 inches of rain on the southern half of the state before lumbering inland at 3 knots and maintaining its strength while doing so due to ideal conditions. Then the hurricane stalls over Southern Florida for a week because of very weak steering currents and they receive another 129 inches of rain.What is left of the wind ripped South Florida area now is submerged completely when the combination of the storm surge not being able to retreat and the copious amounts of rainfall cover all areas. The people are astonished at the power of Mother Nature and bewildered as to why EVERYTHING is gone. Walking around in the baking stench trying to salvage anything that might be remaining of there previous lives. Praying that there relatives and friends are o.k. Wondering if the insurance companies are going to go belly up because of the enormous amount of damage. I would bet you can imagine the rest.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20536
1036. Floodman
1:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting hcubed:


And then it scoots across the N Atl, hitting England. It dies after crossing into France.

Gotta carry it all the way through.


You're right...it's all about the follow through
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1035. Floodman
1:54 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting NEwxguy:


Good to see you've joined the crowd.


Good to be here...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1034. GalvestonMedStudent
1:52 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Looks like it isn't going to let up for a while. I noticed the ocean looked high against the Seawall last night, but it was dark, so I wasn't sure. Turns out it was 3.5 ft above normal tide level.

With all that, I still love living on this island.
1033. hcubed
1:51 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Good morning. So Tacoman is Stormno, Stormtop, but there's two Tacos?


Yes. A good taco and a bad taco.

You can tell the difference - the bad taco comes with extra cheese.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1032. eyesontheweather
1:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Jeez...their talking about the one in the Caribbean...or maybe they meant southern Costa Rica?
Scratches head, thought I had it. I don't suppose we could pick up the phone and ask for clarrification?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1031. nrtiwlnvragn
1:50 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
New Blog
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10909
1030. GalvestonMedStudent
1:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Thanks, Patrap, for all the info!
1028. Orcasystems
1:47 PM GMT on October 22, 2009


All-time October low recorded in Bavaria

Published: 20 Oct 09 16:36 CET
Online

Meteorologists on Tuesday morning recorded the lowest ever October temperature in Germany, as the mercury dipped to a chilly -24.3 degrees Celsius in Bavaria’s Berchtesgaden national park.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1027. hcubed
1:45 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


Outstanding...

I'll go you a couple better:
Cat3 off the Yucatan
Cat5 though the Florida peninsula
Cat1 through both Carolinas
Nor'easter up the coast
4' snows across New England
Cat1 winds in the Maritimes

Now THAT'S a late season storm...if you dream, my friends. dream BIG


And then it scoots across the N Atl, hitting England. It dies after crossing into France.

Gotta carry it all the way through.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639
1026. AwakeInMaryland
1:44 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm you missed skirting along the Texas/Miss/Ala coast on its way to Florida

and, simultaneously, a Cat#3, Hawaii
but it's far easier to edit than to create such a magnificent scenario
Good morning. So Tacoman is Stormno, Stormtop, but there's two Tacos?
Thanks for Tamiflu advice, Orca, was wondering if that helps the nausea? Pls. feel better.

Could someone pls. help update me on Neki? Is. of Maui could expect what kind of winds?

Those Galveston winds can't be very happy-making just a little more than 1 yr. after H. Ike.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918
1025. eyesontheweather
1:42 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting IKE:


From the eastern Pacific discussion...

"ANOTHER TROUGH WHICH HAS ALSO LASTED FOR A FEW DAYS IS OVER
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE LOW JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN
COSTA RICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
ITCZ SECTION. THE CONVECTION DOES SEEM TO BE ORGANIZED AND HAS
INCREASED SOME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE COMPUTER FORECAST
MODEL LEAVES THE LOW STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IT VERY SLOWLY. THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALSO REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IN THE
COMPUTER FORECAST."
Thank You, Got it
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1024. IKE
1:42 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting IKE:


From the eastern Pacific discussion...

"ANOTHER TROUGH WHICH HAS ALSO LASTED FOR A FEW DAYS IS OVER
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE LOW JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN
COSTA RICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
ITCZ SECTION. THE CONVECTION DOES SEEM TO BE ORGANIZED AND HAS
INCREASED SOME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE COMPUTER FORECAST
MODEL LEAVES THE LOW STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IT VERY SLOWLY. THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALSO REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IN THE
COMPUTER FORECAST."


Jeez...their talking about the one in the Caribbean...or maybe they meant southern Costa Rica?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1023. Patrap
1:40 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Neki

FunkTop Color Image



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1022. Patrap
1:38 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Lupit
AVN still Image

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1021. IKE
1:38 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting eyesontheweather:
I guess it is (has been ) a watch and wait situation. There seems to be thought that SW carib Low is going to sit in place for awhile. Any knowledge as to what the EPAC low is predicrted to do? BTW, enjoyed the popcorn last night however caffinated sodas kept me awake.


From the eastern Pacific discussion...

"ANOTHER TROUGH WHICH HAS ALSO LASTED FOR A FEW DAYS IS OVER
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE LOW JUST OFFSHORE NORTHERN
COSTA RICA IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
ITCZ SECTION. THE CONVECTION DOES SEEM TO BE ORGANIZED AND HAS
INCREASED SOME DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE COMPUTER FORECAST
MODEL LEAVES THE LOW STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IT VERY SLOWLY. THE
DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALSO REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS IN THE
COMPUTER FORECAST."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1020. eyesontheweather
1:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm you missed skirting along the Texas/Miss/Ala coast on its way to Florida
Did Lousiana fall off the continent? J/K
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1019. Patrap
1:36 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
GOM IR Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1018. Orcasystems
1:30 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


Outstanding...

I'll go you a couple better:
Cat3 off the Yucatan
Cat5 though the Florida peninsula
Cat1 through both Carolinas
Nor'easter up the coast
4' snows across New England
Cat1 winds in the Maritimes

Now THAT'S a late season storm...if you dream, my friends. dream BIG


Umm you missed skirting along the Texas/Miss/Ala coast on its way to Florida
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1017. eyesontheweather
1:27 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


Outstanding...

I'll go you a couple better:
Cat3 off the Yucatan
Cat5 though the Florida peninsula
Cat1 through both Carolinas
Nor'easter up the coast
4' snows across New England
Cat1 winds in the Maritimes

Now THAT'S a late season storm...if you dream, my friends. dream BIG
CHA CHING!
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1016. SAINTHURRIFAN
1:26 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
hey i posted earlier, well i thought i did ,maybe it did not show up lol. but the last nhc surface map i saw had this sw carrib system turning nw after 72 hrs.I stated earlier that juan was a hurricane this time of the year. I remember nash saying it was a hybrid type storm that was intangled in a front.it was one reason it was able to streghen despite shear and cooler sst in the north/gulf, possible that this might try something like this? hope this post shows up like your and others take on this . thanks.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
1015. NEwxguy
1:26 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


Outstanding...

I'll go you a couple better:
Cat3 off the Yucatan
Cat5 though the Florida peninsula
Cat1 through both Carolinas
Nor'easter up the coast
4' snows across New England
Cat1 winds in the Maritimes

Now THAT'S a late season storm...if you dream, my friends. dream BIG


Good to see you've joined the crowd.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 875 Comments: 15634
1014. TheCaneWhisperer
1:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Once that energy in the Central Caribbean gets going, which is in due process, it's all over for the EPAC low.

As indicated by Weather456 yesterday, it's stationary because the Caribbean low is winning the battle.



The Epac low being stationary and not moving WNW away from the coast as it normally would.
1013. eyesontheweather
1:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting IKE:


Could be.

Look like 2 separate lows. I see the one in the SW Caribbean. The one in the east-Pacific looks pretty impressive.

Maybe if they get away from each other the one in the Caribbean has a better chance.

Your point may be correct...

I guess it is (has been ) a watch and wait situation. There seems to be thought that SW carib Low is going to sit in place for awhile. Any knowledge as to what the EPAC low is predicrted to do? BTW, enjoyed the popcorn last night however caffinated sodas kept me awake.
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1012. weathermanwannabe
1:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Good Morning. Yup, sheer rules and not looking too promising for both AOI's at the moment. Dr. M predicted one to two more possible storms in the 2nd half of October a few weeks ago and we've come close but no cigar. Unless sheer relaxes over the next ten days, and with moderate El Nino conditions still present, I would not expect anything in November so we may be looking at the end of the season if neither of these two area are able to develop. However, we will start seeing an uptic in tornadic activity in the Southern US, connected with frontal boundries, as the Fall and Winter progresses with El Nino conditions.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8826
1011. TheCaneWhisperer
1:24 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Once that energy in the Central Caribbean gets going, which is in due process, it's all over for the EPAC low.

As indicated by Weather456 yesterday, it's stationary because the Caribbean low is winning the battle.
1010. TheCaneWhisperer
1:21 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting Floodman:


Outstanding...

I'll go you a couple better:
Cat3 off the Yucatan
Cat5 though the Florida peninsula
Cat1 through both Carolinas
Nor'easter up the coast
4' snows across New England
Cat1 winds in the Maritimes

Now THAT'S a late season storm...if you dream, my friends. dream BIG



LOL
1009. stormsurge39
1:19 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
looks like the energy is seperating into the Epac and the Atlantic.
1008. Patrap
1:18 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1007. Patrap
1:18 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
1006. Floodman
1:17 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:




CAT 5 off the Florida Peninsula, Through "The Carolinas", Record Noreaster up the NE.

"Nothing But Net"


Outstanding...

I'll go you a couple better:
Cat3 off the Yucatan
Cat5 though the Florida peninsula
Cat1 through both Carolinas
Nor'easter up the coast
4' snows across New England
Cat1 winds in the Maritimes

Now THAT'S a late season storm...if you dream, my friends. dream BIG
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1005. IKE
1:16 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Ike in post 980 your map appears that a lot of moisture from SW carrib is being absorbed in EPAC am I seeing this correctly?


Could be.

Look like 2 separate lows. I see the one in the SW Caribbean. The one in the east-Pacific looks pretty impressive.

Maybe if they get away from each other the one in the Caribbean has a better chance.

Your point may be correct...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1004. Orcasystems
1:14 PM GMT on October 22, 2009


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1003. GalvestonMedStudent
1:12 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
The wind is still coming off the Gulf and hasn't changed direction yet, so it seems the front has yet to fully take over.

(Please excuse my ignorance if I'm wrong about anything -- I'm usually just a lurker who enjoys learning from you guys.)
1002. GalvestonMedStudent
1:11 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Good morning from Galveston. This is about the worst weather I've seen this year. The wind is gusting (weather service says the gusts are up to 25 mph, but it seems harder than that) and there is torrential rain. Do you guys think this will let up once the front comes through, or do you think remnants of Rick will keep it going longer?
1001. eyesontheweather
1:10 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting IKE:


LOL...no.
Ike in post 980 your map appears that a lot of moisture from SW carrib is being absorbed in EPAC am I seeing this correctly?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
1000. Seflhurricane
1:06 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
look st the visible pics from the carribean
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
999. Seflhurricane
1:05 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
there appears to be a low pressure center near the costa rica/nicaragua border right on the coast lets see what happens but i dont think we will get development from this as long as its close to the coast
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2990
998. IKE
1:04 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting eyesontheweather:
are you getting love letters?


LOL...no.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
997. superpete
12:57 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Post 976. Look's to be coming our way eventually through the weekend/more rain.
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 636
996. presslord
12:52 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
yea Whisperer,...that's the one I'm interested in...might make for some sogginess...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
995. TheCaneWhisperer
12:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
The Kicker is going to be that low in the Caribbean that's going to follow the Bahamian low up the front. That could spell a pretty significant snow event for the East Coast.
994. eyesontheweather
12:48 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting IKE:
I'm talking of personal WU mail.
are you getting love letters?
Member Since: August 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 633
993. stormwatcherCI
12:46 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:




CAT 5 off the Florida Peninsula, Through "The Carolinas", Record Noreaster up the NE.

"Nothing But Net"
Quoting presslord:
...much better...
You're both nuts. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
992. SAINTHURRIFAN
12:46 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
boy ike yall had a donnybrook lastnight.Be careful, like i said yesterday " i was banned for firing back at weather student and it was minor.I still believe these blog admins are more worried about the trolls, and are quicker to ban the responders who get fed up. maybe they get a kick out of them.and as far as the the disturbance in the sw carrib, looks like the nhc is anticipating that this low will move back nw after 72 hrs. i guess that throws stormtops 25n theory out. very well could see some kind of hybrid system impact the northern gulf coast.pat would have better details, but juan formed in late oct and although it was a 85 knot hurricane i remember nash roberts always saying that juan was a hybrid thats why it flourished even with shear and lower sst. well ike i respect your opinion but you are a bigger man than me i get a bellyfull in a hurry with the wise a--- that come on this blog. Have a blessed day.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706
991. presslord
12:45 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
...much better...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
990. TheCaneWhisperer
12:45 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Quoting presslord:


you've gotta stop it with the reasoned , rational approach...nobody wants to hear that...




CAT 5 off the Florida Peninsula, Through "The Carolinas", Record Noreaster up the NE.

"Nothing But Net"
989. stormwatcherCI
12:45 PM GMT on October 22, 2009
Rain has started again in East End. Coming down pretty good.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.