Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmoaggie:
668: So it is going to linger until June 1 and then develop, right?

funny.
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668: So it is going to linger until June 1 and then develop, right?
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Quoting njdevil:


wavewatch doesn't have it developing much more than 3M seas as of now (could be an old run now), but it sure does look like it disturbs a huge amount of the coast when it gets moving.
Yes, but since that was posted #666 and you are the Jersey Devil it now becomes 333 meter seas.....jk.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21193
so, the storm is going to hit...

Jamaica, Cayman, the Western tip of Cuba, South Florida, and the Northern Bahamas.

I guess it's going to be one hell of a storm.

reminds me of when the local weatherman told me there was going to be 1-18 inches of snow. just say everywhere is going to get hit by a hurricane, so if it does hit somewhere, you'll be right.
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Quoting tacoman:
kman i can assure you it wasnt from computers it was a well respected meteoroligists i have known for years..i will get new info in the morning ...all i can tell you right now is things in the sw caribbean are changing and not for the good either..tacoman


no, thats not true at all. the thing is over land and no model strengthens it past a tropical storm. go away, you are a troll.
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Loop


okay, call me complacent.
but i am paying attention.
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let me clarify...I'm inclined to think it's not out of the question...
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Quoting tacoman:
chicklit its not good things are coming together for a serious hurricane in the next 96 hours...everyone in s fla should keep a close eye on this baby...not looking good ...tacoman


shut up. you are making stuff up. go away and lurk.
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post 668...the scary part is...I'm inclined to go along with this assessment...
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TACOMAN where did you get that piece of info?
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675. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
Re: Post #668.
I hope you're right Tacoman.
As that might get Ike out of his tropical depression. :)


Tropical depression? What do you mean by that?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

I don't see it, especially when the golden ray of death comes across the screen. I see a pull to the NE with alot of the cloud elements, and that big pop off nicaragua.
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Hmmm... njdevil has post 666...
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Re: Post #668.
I hope you're right Tacoman.
As that might get Ike out of his tropical depression. :)
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Just an observation: 6.1 earthquake 6.827°N, 82.576°W, south of Panama in the last hour. Just a ruckous down there all the way around.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmmm. Not that it is something to get all that excited over yet, but CMC seems to drop a low right off my doorstep (tail of next cold front?) off of the LA coast.

Not impossible, nor likely.


(Click for full size)




Ah, a classic CMC doomcast into new orleans... need one of those every week or so with that model...
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It is gusty on the ECFL coast tonight and it was windy, although less, and a little overcast this a.m. too.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmmm. Not that it is something to get all that excited over yet, but CMC seems to drop a low right off my doorstep (tail of next cold front?) off of the LA coast.

Not impossible, nor likely.


(Click for full size)


I give you guys a low off of LA, which is where NOLA is, which is where STORMTOP is from (I think) and NO ONE ran with it? And the model interpretation discussion went on?

And then the blog itself was the primary topic of conversation for a while?

Seriously, if tacoticobreath got a TS up his behind late this season... (I hope no one would lose a thing to it) that would be GREAT!

Very disappointed at the utter lack of sarcasm that ensued.
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Quoting hydrus:
Yeah, The only cruise I would be taking is in the opposite direction of that (growing Blob).


wavewatch doesn't have it developing much more than 3M seas as of now (could be an old run now), but it sure does look like it disturbs a huge amount of the coast when it gets moving.
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Not dead.........Just watching the convection firing down in the SW Caribbean.
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Link look at this you can see the spin clearer
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Quoting Skyepony:
I'm suprised keys NWS was discounting the 12Z gfs & low trying to form in the Bahamas & move up the east side of FL. CMC has been on it for like 3 days, gfs 2 days & it gets stronger each run. It's not like it just showed up on the 12z run..

Would that explain why it's so blustery here in ECFL tonight?
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blog is dead.(edit, didnt reload the page lol)

this stuff isnt...


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Good Evening Folks,

Just recently returned from my 24 hour ban, which I knew would happen. For those I offended by my joke concerning the arguing and the special olympics, I'm sorry. I just get tired of the constant fighting about things I'm just trying to learn about.

GFS has Neki doing a right turn above the islands, is that accurate?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What are you looking at ? Looking pretty good to my untrained eye.


The large area is going north and east with the flow. Those two new areas in/near SE Cuba--hope they move too.
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658. JRRP
Quoting Drakoen:


I've been keeping my mouth closed about that, but I do agree.

+2
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"">"
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Quoting miajrz:
Link
Hopes this works--1st time trying to post a link. My apologies.


It works! congrats
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
Quoting njdevil:


I was looking at it before on an wondermap. it's a pretty impressively growing area of crappy weather. happy my cruise wasn't this week nor next week.
Yeah, The only cruise I would be taking is in the opposite direction of that (growing Blob).
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21193
Quoting Weather456:
Post 585 and 586

I think it's peculiar how some on here discount the models when they don't show much(referencing 94L)....

But...those same posters didn't discount the models when they showed a system(94L) developing.


I dont understand...

You have been doing that all season (just the other way around) and it have some people here like Kman, Drak, SW and myself who can tell when a model is being inconsistent and we give clear, concise and valid reasons, not post the NWS discussions. We have seen models develop a storm and discount it, like 95L and 98L and many other ghost storms we have seen this year. So that statement is not all true.


I've been keeping my mouth closed about that, but I do agree.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30490
Quoting miajrz:

I dunno. Seems like it's getting pulled apart N&E, jmo.
Link
What are you looking at ? Looking pretty good to my untrained eye.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
Quoting stormpetrol:

Also looks to be splitting from Caribbean blob, which imo could actually hasten development for both of them, jmo of course.
Naahhh...I bet a case of delicious beer that if it comes down to it Bahama blob wins.lol.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21193
Link
Hopes this works--1st time trying to post a link. My apologies.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:

Link check out latest RGB


that shows the "pop" nicely. the rest of it looks more ragged, though, I really don't see the rotation, but there is one hell of a flare-up in that spot off nicaragua.

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Quoting stormpetrol:

Also looks to be splitting from Caribbean blob, which imo could actually hasten development for both of them, jmo of course.

I dunno. Seems like it's getting pulled apart N&E, jmo.
Link
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guys it brought everyone some much needed rain that is all its going to do...lets hope we can get some more before its all done because its typically a very dry winter here....
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Link check out latest RGB
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Quoting hydrus:
I am chuckling while I type this post, but have you noticed how large and fast the Bahama low is forming? I may stop chuckling. It is becoming impressive> Just my harmless opinion of course.

Also looks to be splitting from Caribbean blob, which imo could actually hasten development for both of them, jmo of course.
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Quoting tornadofan:


We're just lurking b/c we don't feel like getting yelled at.




On another note, if you guys want to try and track a system, try Lupit. I've been watching it for my Vietnamese neighbors. That thing can't make up it's mind.
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Quoting hydrus:
I am chuckling while I type this post, but have you noticed how large and fast the Bahama low is forming? I may stop chuckling. It is becoming impressive> Just my harmless opinion of course.


I was looking at it before on an wondermap. it's a pretty impressively growing area of crappy weather. happy my cruise wasn't this week nor next week.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
I am chuckling while I type this post, but have you noticed how large and fast the Bahama low is forming? I may stop chuckling. It is becoming impressive> Just my harmless opinion of course.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21193
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L been drop the navy site no longer has it up
Might be back later. LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8373
94L was dropped because it was inland for almost 24 hours now, a new low might form deeper in the Carribean could be another ballgame. Models are not handling the pattern right, expect possibly more drops until a dominant low has formed. Currently, it's a mess over there.
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seems like a flare-up more than anything else, especially when you slow the framerate down. two areas pulling on each other and joining forces

also seems too far north unless it's getting a new center, that's halfway to Honduras.
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Good Evening...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.