Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks to be just east of Nicaragua.

ok what is the lat and lon
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Quoting presslord:
oh, for Christ's sake...everything reminds you of Katrina...
lol. It is like that one dude from The Weather Channel a while back, every single solitary time he did the tropical update, He used 1997,s hurricane Danny to explain how blobs form into hurricanes. It was disgusting.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22604
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok guy where is the current coc of ex-94l/possible pre-95l (sw carib AOI)
Looks to be just east of Nicaragua.
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I'd just love to see a "model" of this. and I don't understand why it could hit the western tip of Cuba and be repeled from the Gulf, it takes one tick to the NW and it's in the Gulf.

it would have to jog to Jamaica and then take a sideways U to even be able to do that. and it would be interacting with land the entire time on that path.

if you're going to have a crazy theory, at least be reasonably crazy. seriously, take one of the 500 maps put up here and draw a circle around that area.
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Quoting tacoman:
its info that i observed just by looking at the surface maps and the enviroment around the storm steering currents have been weak in the area but thats about to change a high which the computers are not even showing is forecast to build right over the surface low in the next 24 hours and slacken the wind shear to less then 10 knots...the dry air will never make it that far south and there is nothing to keep this from strengthing into a serious hurricane..i will have new info in the morning and i would not at all be surprised if the nhc had a plane on standby for friday morning...tacoman


we've been saying this since monday. still doesnt mean it is going to be a serious hurricane.
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ok guy where is the current coc of ex-94l/possible pre-95l (sw carib AOI)
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Quoting eyesontheweather:
And to a novice this means what?


EPAC is losing lower level presence as the Caribbean system has gained in lower level organization. The EPAC disturbance is locked up at 500mb .
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Quoting IKE:
701...then why do you come on here and say it's over?

If I came on here and said...season over....it's finished...conditions just aren't favorable at all, etc.....I wouldn't be coming on here 2 weeks later saying what you're saying....

Who is going to believe you?
.......................................

This blog>>>>>LMAO.

Chicklit?

Drak, I won't even respond to your dart you threw.



What dart? I just agreed with what Weather456 said. I don't have any obligation to anyone.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The EPAC vorticity has ascended higher into the atmosphere. The lower to mid level cyclonic circulation is predominant in the Caribbean.

And to a novice this means what?
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728. xcool
Drakoen. increasing convective?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
727. IKE
701...then why do you come on here and say it's over?

If I came on here and said...season over....it's finished...conditions just aren't favorable at all, etc.....I wouldn't be coming on here 2 weeks later saying what you're saying....

Who is going to believe you?
.......................................

This blog>>>>>LMAO.

Chicklit?

Drak, I won't even respond to your dart you threw.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The EPAC vorticity has ascended higher into the atmosphere. The lower to mid level cyclonic circulation is predominant in the Caribbean.

What do you think about this "new, top secret information tacoman has gotten ? Your opinion I value. Thanks
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Quoting xcool:
stormwatcherCI lmao
We're good.
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Quoting presslord:
oh, for Christ's sake...everything reminds you of Katrina...
LMAO!!!!!
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723. xcool
stormwatcherCI lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The EPAC vorticity has ascended higher into the atmosphere. The lower to mid level cyclonic circulation is predominant in the Caribbean.

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Hmm, what changed in the last 2 weeks? It is called the MJO.
Too bad it is a complete surprise that it is back or this period of activity could have been foreseen.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
ROFLMAO.....................
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Quoting tacoman:
ike i did and im not going to say i didnt say that but things have chnged ike...its all coming together it reminds me of a katrina the way it quickly developed off the fla coast...ike we along the gulfcoast have nothing to worry about we are protected from the cold fronts coming down...these are not going to be strong enough to protect s fla and the bahamas..this is going to be quite a storm if things continue like this and by looking at the new info i dont see anything keeping this from being a dangerous storm..tacoman
New Info, What new info? and where does the new info come from?
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Quoting xcool:
stormwatcherCI oh im soso sorry i feel bad nowwww ;(
Don't feel bad. Honest mistake see you can't see me.
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716. jipmg
anyhow here is my analysis (if anyone cares), there are two areas of lower pressure, one east nica, and moving NNW at 5 mph, and the other stalled just off the coast in the eastern pacific, the one stalled appears to be the main circulation, the other low is the one we need to watch.
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715. xcool
stormwatcherCI oh im soso sorry i feel bad nowwww ;(
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
...the Shadow lives...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
this is what I'm talking about. if taco the man wants to state this, it's his right. is it worth fighting over? weather his is wrong or right does it really matter? we will see in the morning what the caribbean is doing and there will be time to prepare. right?

good night folks!
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712. jipmg
Quoting tacoman:
ike i did and im not going to say i didnt say that but things have chnged ike...its all coming together it reminds me of a katrina the way it quickly developed off the fla coast...ike we along the gulfcoast have nothing to worry about we are protected from the cold fronts coming down...these are not going to be strong enough to protect s fla and the bahamas..this is going to be quite a storm if things continue like this and by looking at the new info i dont see anything keeping this from being a dangerous storm..tacoman


can you please show us this new information
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Quoting njdevil:


wavewatch doesn't have it developing much more than 3M seas as of now (could be an old run now), but it sure does look like it disturbs a huge amount of the coast when it gets moving.
Quoting njdevil:
Tacoman forgot the part after it destroys the entire central caribbean and south florida, it's going to hit NY/NE as a cat 3 hurrisnow.
and Texas.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22604
Quoting kingzfan104:
can someone explain to me what those vortocity maps are?


This link will answer all of your questions.
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oh, for Christ's sake...everything reminds you of Katrina...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting tacoman:
ike i did and im not going to say i didnt say that but things have chnged ike...its all coming together it reminds me of a katrina the way it quickly developed off the fla coast...ike we along the gulfcoast have nothing to worry about we are protected from the cold fronts coming down...these are not going to be strong enough to protect s fla and the bahamas..this is going to be quite a storm if things continue like this and by looking at the new info i dont see anything keeping this from being a dangerous storm..tacoman
Please post the "new" info you are getting. Thanks
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707. jipmg
Quoting tacoman:
we may have a really serious situation on our hands...this is the last bang of the 2009 hurricane season...information i just received from my office is not good...conditions are changing pretty fasy down in the sw caribbean...a tropical depression may form as ealy as friday as the wind shear drops off to 5-10 knots and the sst are in the mid to high 80s..the dry air will not make it that far south and this spells trouble for the cayman islands, jamaica and the western tip of cuba ealy next week..all interests in that area of the caribbean should keep abreast of whats going on...there is a 60% chance once the depression forms it will have spurts of rapid intensification not to mention copious amounts of rain mudslides and very dangerous weather conditions..all interests in s fla the central and northern bahamas should be ready to take quick action to protect life and property...this surface low is starting to get its act together and it wont take long before we have a full fledged hurricane on our hands..i will have another update in the morning new info will be coming into my office at that time...tacoman


huh?
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can someone explain to me what those vortocity maps are?
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
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Quoting IKE:
tacoman...2 weeks ago you said the season was over?


yeah I was wondering that as well.
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I'm no expert...it just seems to be a tenacious little blob...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting xcool:
stormwatcherCI yes sir opps
LOL, just so you know I am not a sir. I am ma'am ok.
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Quoting tacoman:
kingzan keep following those models and you are going to end up in the trash like them ...i do my own forecasting plus the info i get is always first hand info..you need to just look at the enviroment around this surface low now its changed significantly in the past 18 hours...tacoman


no it hasnt. the thing is still over land and the only model that significantly developed it and it is no longer even developing it. at most it will be a moderate tropical storm. you are a troll who flip flops on his positions everyday. just go away
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Quoting presslord:
let me clarify...I'm inclined to think it's not out of the question...
Please explain. As I look at it there does seem to develop a deep layer of convection on water vapor loop. Is this what is being refered to as a possibility
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698. xcool
stormwatcherCI yes sir opps
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Tacoman forgot the part after it destroys the entire central caribbean and south florida, it's going to hit NY/NE as a cat 3 hurrisnow.
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Quoting xcool:
oh wow .convective bursts
It's looking good tonight.
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694. xcool
oh wow .convective bursts
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
693. xcool





Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting atmoaggie:
668: So it is going to linger until June 1 and then develop, right?


c'mon atmo...don't be such a kill joy...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
690. IKE
tacoman...2 weeks ago you said the season was over?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
668: So it is going to linger until June 1 and then develop, right?

funny.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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