Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Hey Patrap

I really liked it too still LMAO at cha

Taco :0)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Please interpret this.


Small low level circulation near 11.5N 83W



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I kinda liked that last of mine,..LOL

Maybe 94L will give the ol blog a ramp up one mo time.

Interesting,but Im betting on it going "poof" as well.
Let 2009 slide into the books as a slow one.
That's my Wed wish.

Gnight all.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
Quoting DoubleAction:
My office manager and friends are taking a 3 day cruise tomorrow evenening to the bahamas, will they get some weather?


Depends upon which part of the Bahamas.
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ok guys I want to say this Tacoman is not me....

I thought I was the only Taco in here....

Taco :0)
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Quoting tacoman:
ike you know dam well what im talking about ...you know the storm will cross fla and move ne out into the atlantic and weaken...ike you know this storm cant come that far north because of the hostile conditions ...iks i thought you knew something about geography...gee..im tired of explaining this ike you of all people...devil is probably a kid learning but you ...ike have you been hitting the bottle...tacoman


You have about as much tact and manner as a Roomful of Pythons and Armadillos sport..


Ike is a well respected member here,unlike yerself,
.. and ya know..your really beginning to Bore the Smack out of all of us.


And now,yer dismissed.

"Waves wunder-wand in Fancy Circle"..


"Poof"..!


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866

Please interpret this.
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Is there a full moon?
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Quoting tacoman:
ike you know dam well what im talking about ...you know the storm will cross fla and move ne out into the atlantic and weaken...ike you know this storm cant come that far north because of the hostile conditions ...iks i thought you knew something about geography...gee..im tired of explaining this ike you of all people...devil is probably a kid learning but you ...ike have you been hitting the bottle...tacoman
Alrighty then, Popcorn is served....
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Quoting tacoman:
ike you know dam well what im talking about ...you know the storm will cross fla and move ne out into the atlantic and weaken...ike you know this storm cant come that far north because of the hostile conditions ...iks i thought you knew something about geography...gee..im tired of explaining this ike you of all people...devil is probably a kid learning but you ...ike have you been hitting the bottle...tacoman


Your name makes me hungry.
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My office manager and friends are taking a 3 day cruise tomorrow evenening to the bahamas, will they get some weather?
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This is all just too cool man....
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Pat...Outstanding!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
775. IKE
Quoting tacoman:
ike you know dam well what im talking about ...you know the storm will cross fla and move ne out into the atlantic and weaken...ike you know this storm cant come that far north because of the hostile conditions ...iks i thought you knew something about geography...gee..im tired of explaining this ike you of all people...devil is probably a kid learning but you ...ike have you been hitting the bottle...tacoman


Here's what you said....739. tacoman 9:18 PM CDT on October 21, 2009
devil it will not go above 23 degrees north..you are very well protected if you live n of 23 degrees...


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tacoman:
devil i think you need a lesson in geography man...look at your map you will see jamaica is first in line then comes the caymans cuba and fla...devil its hard for you to comprehend just think of a huge rubber band across 23 degrees north..if the storm tries to penetrate this force field it gets pushed to the south a storm cant go into dry air and ssts in the mid 70s and survive man...do you understand now..tacoman
OK, Jamaica is well east of Caymans, So either this thing is coming out of the east or it is going to have a pattern simular to what a pinball takes
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773. 789
Quoting tacoman:
devil it doesnt affect it to the east thats the ally way this storm will take im well aware the keys are at 25 degrees..it will take a ne patyh right over s and central fla...what i meant devil is it cant come in the gulf im talking about the extreme se gom not in the central gulf cant happen...tacoman
im sticking my neck out but i did also hear a rumer this may mix with something else in a few days and maybe run into parts of texas to the east > i dont have any models but the models wont show until something starts up so lets wait and see!
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if it's coming from SW FL to central east FL to exit, how is it effecting the Bahamas, which don't go any further north than Jupiter?

and it still doesn't change that portions of Cuba are north of your rubber band.

this is what I was talking about before, people come looking for info and some people just drop total crap here and dilute the info.
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New Hope,New Beginning
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
Did someone eat to much hot sauce tonite and now needs a movement to discard the gas or what!
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Quoting IKE:


Fire it up and chill the soda......
All set with plenty of napkins
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Quoting futuremet:


Ike, relax. You are too tense tonight.

Hi, futuremet,
I didn't get to thank you yesterday as I had to attend to something or other -- I asked what you thought and you wrote a nice little analysis, which wasn't too technical to understand but still respected a person's intelligence. Appreciated it.
Wow, what a goofy blog tonight. I thought by this hour things would be busy, but more relaxed. Guess not! It's hilarious that it's to the point that people are talking to themselves, though... I am not alone!
Have a good night, keep posting!
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haha hey all,

tacoman, check this out, posts 483 and 487 link
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Ironically I ate a taco tonight. Anyways, ex-94l is still not a new invest one step at a time.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3767
...oh...you silly people...with your models...and computers...and satellites...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys please tell me where the coc is in lat and long
Looks to be around 82w and 12/13N.

Futuremet or Drakoen please confirm this. thanks
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762. IKE
Quoting tacoman:
devil it doesnt affect it to the east thats the ally way this storm will take im well aware the keys are at 25 degrees..it will take a ne patyh right over s and central fla...what i meant devil is it cant come in the gulf im talking about the extreme se gom not in the central gulf cant happen...tacoman


LOL..."south and central Florida" is from 25N and points north of there. Your 23N scenario eliminates Florida.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tacoman:
devil i think you need a lesson in geography man...look at your map you will see jamaica is first in line then comes the caymans cuba and fla...devil its hard for you to comprehend just think of a huge rubber band across 23 degrees north..if the storm tries to penetrate this force field it gets pushed to the south a storm cant go into dry air and ssts in the mid 70s and survive man...do you understand now..tacoman


and do you understand the entirety of Florida is north of 23? because I don't think you do.
or you just made stuff up and thought people wouldn't be able to see it on one of the 40,000 maps on this site.

HAVANA is north of 23. which means since your system can't break 23, it would be ripped to shreds by Cuba. the threat has been averted.
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759. IKE
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Hello Ike

Should I be getting the popcorn and sodas ready?


Fire it up and chill the soda......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tacoman:
ike i did say it was over with but ike things have come together and i have to tell the people what i think ..the number 1 thing for me is to save lives i cant worry about my pride...if they dont believe me at least i got the info out to them...ike i really mean this a dangerous situation is developing and everyone needs to stay on there toes....tacoman


dude wtf. You have not provided any sources for your info. How can you blame people for being skeptical. Dangerous situation? There simply is no situation as of yet.
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I see there is no model support for anything to develop..
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Hello Ike

Should I be getting the popcorn and sodas ready?
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and without knowing the coordinates, the Keys are north of 23 too.

checked... hell, they're north of 24.
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753. JRRP
Quoting Drakoen:
The EPAC vorticity has ascended higher into the atmosphere. The lower to mid level cyclonic circulation is predominant in the Caribbean.


the system near bahamas looks interesting
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Quoting tacoman:
ike i did say it was over with but ike things have come together and i have to tell the people what i think ..the number 1 thing for me is to save lives i cant worry about my pride...if they dont believe me at least i got the info out to them...ike i really mean this a dangerous situation is developing and everyone needs to stay on there toes....tacoman


haha, you are such a joke. you lead a pretty pathetic life if you truly believe you are saving lives then you need to get a grip.
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EPAC system is getting absorbed.

Current



3hrs ago


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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok what is the lat and lon
guys please tell me where the coc is in lat and long
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748. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Isn't the tip of SFL mainland excluding the Keys at 25 North?


Yes.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Isn't the tip of SFL mainland excluding the Keys at 25 North?
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746. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


Ike, relax. You are too tense tonight.


Oh...I am relaxed.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
there is no part of Florida that is south of 23N.

and you still haven't explained how it's going to hit Jamaica, Cayman, far W Cuba, South Florida and the Bahamas. the sideways U is the only path possible. it's insane.
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Quoting tacoman:
its info that i observed just by looking at the surface maps and the enviroment around the storm steering currents have been weak in the area but thats about to change a high which the computers are not even showing is forecast to build right over the surface low in the next 24 hours and slacken the wind shear to less then 10 knots...the dry air will never make it that far south and there is nothing to keep this from strengthing into a serious hurricane..i will have new info in the morning and i would not at all be surprised if the nhc had a plane on standby for friday morning...tacoman


This is great - could we have some more please?
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Quoting IKE:
701...then why do you come on here and say it's over?

If I came on here and said...season over....it's finished...conditions just aren't favorable at all, etc.....I wouldn't be coming on here 2 weeks later saying what you're saying....

Who is going to believe you?
.......................................

This blog>>>>>LMAO.

Chicklit?

Drak, I won't even respond to your dart you threw.



Ike, relax. You are too tense tonight.
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Is this developing banding ?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks to be just east of Nicaragua.

and there is not even a floater on it.
anyway, it is windy here and yet the local station says 3 mph.
APRSWXNET Ponce Inlet FL US, Port Orange, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 15 min 14 sec ago
77 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 68%
Dew Point: 66 °F
Wind: 3 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
I must be inhabiting an alternative universe.
Goodnight.
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Quoting Drakoen:


EPAC is losing lower level presence as the Caribbean system has gained in lower level organization. The EPAC disturbance is locked up at 500mb .
I thank you for this response but I have to admit it went way way over my threshold of understanding, maybe I should reclassify myself as a pre-novice
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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