Western Caribbean disturabance 94L bringing heavy rains; Lupit's path uncertain

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:39 PM GMT on October 21, 2009

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A broad 1008 mb low pressure area has developed near 10N 84W, inland over Costa Rica. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L yesterday, but is no longer issuing model products for the disturbance. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a broad circulation around the low, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph over the extreme Southwestern Caribbean. Obviously, the center will have to move over water in order for significant development to occur, but recent satellite loops show that the low is pulling in an increasing amount of moisture from the Pacific, leading to heavy rains over Costa Rica and western Panama. Wind shear is low, about 5 - 10 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which both favor development if the center moves over water. Rainfall estimates from the Navy Research Lab indicate that 94L dumped up to three inches of rain over portions of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua over the past 24 hours.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. At present, only the GFS model develops 94L, but weeks it very weak. The GFS predicts the storm will take a north then northwesterly track across western Cuba early next week, then into the Gulf Coast of Florida later in the week. However, it is equally likely that 94L will stay bottled up in the Western Caribbean for the foreseeable future. I'll continue to give 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of eventually becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization and location over land, Saturday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Thursday or Friday.

Rick misses Baja, hits Mainland Mexico near Mazatlan
Tropical Storm Rick made landfall near 10am EDT in Mainland Mexico just north of Mazatlan. Top winds measured at the Matatlan airport during landfall were 39 mph, gusting to 61 mph. The primary threat from Rick will be heavy rains of up to six inches in the mountains near Mazatlan. Rick's remains should being at most one inch of rain to south-central Texas on Thursday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens and slows; path now uncertain
Typhoon Lupit, now a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, continues to have difficulty dealing with a slug of dry air it wrapped into its core two days ago. Microwave imagery showed that the typhoon was missing a portion of its northern eyewall this morning. However, recent Infrared satellite loops show that the eye has warmed and become more distinct, a sign of intensification. Also, the cloud tops of Lupit's eyewall have cooled in recent hours, signaling that they are more vigorous and reaching higher into the atmosphere. Lupit is in an environment favorable for re-intensification, with low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. It would not be a surprise to see Lupit intensify into a major Category 3 typhoon again by Thursday, though the official forecast from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is less aggressive, calling for a Category 2 storm by tomorrow. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a prodigious rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding one inch per hour near its core (Figure 2).

The future path of the typhoon is now highly uncertain, as steering currents are weakening and the storm is slowing down. A weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Lupit west-southwest is developing, and several models (ECMWF, GFS) now predict recurvature of the typhoon before it reaches the Philippines. This optimistic scenario is counterbalanced by the very pessimistic forecasts of the UKMET and NOGAPS models, which take the typhoon inland over the northern portion of Luzon 1 - 2 days from now, and then stall the storm for 2 - 3 days. This would cause a major flooding disaster, as the soils are already saturated and the dams completely full from the 20+ inches of rain dumped by Super Typhoon Parma in early October. If Lupit stalls for several days over Luzon, it would dump another 20+ inches of rain, triggering massive flash flooding and life-threatening mudslides.

Storm chased Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's landfall, and has some interesting photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Rainfall rates observed by a polar-orbiting microwave satellite at at 10:24 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of one inch per hour (red and pink colors) along its path. Up to 12 inches of rain in a 24-hour period are expected from the typhoon. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey..

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Seastep:
I am really curious as to what data actually led to deactivating 94L.


There was hardly any Vorticity at 850mb this morning......
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838. JRRP
Quoting pcbdragon:
crow and tortillas?

tortillas...
Link
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I am really curious as to what data actually led to deactivating 94L.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3414
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just remember all TacoMan could very well be right about a very dangerous condition....but, that is well to early to push any panic button YET!


boy who cried wolf?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
OK IM GOING TO GET SOME SHUT EYE.. ILL HAVE NEW INFO IN THE MORNING..YOU GUYS KNOW WHAT I SAID AND i STAND BY WHAT I SAID SO WHEN IT HAPPENS I DONT WANT ANYONE TO TAKE CREDIT FOR THIS INFO I DIVULGED TONIGHT...ALL I CAN SAY IS S FLA AND THE BAHAMAS KEEP ON YOUR TOES.. THIS IS GOING TO BE A DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR YOU GUYS BY WEDNESDAY OR THURS...THE SKY IS THE LIMIT FOR IDA...Tacoman
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I actaully just logged on ...but, from what i can tell x94L is trying to get its act together as we speak. Conditions are improving every hour.....by Friday we might have something "TRULY" to worry about.
Very comforting. LOL
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833. xcool
tornadodude haha lmao yeah im old man
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Just remember all TacoMan could very well be right about a very dangerous condition....but, that is well to early to push any panic button YET!
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Quoting foggymyst:
-Tampa, how is it looking? better that we thought, correct?


I actaully just logged on ...but, from what i can tell x94L is trying to get its act together as we speak. Conditions are improving every hour.....by Friday we might have something "TRULY" to worry about.
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Quoting Grothar:


Dude!! Didn't know you were on! How's work going?


hey! yeah, been in LM (lurk mode), but work is going great, it has been fairly easy so far, and enjoyable
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
any thoughts on the Copenhagen Treaty?
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Quoting tornadodude:


like you would know what one was anyway


Dude!! Didn't know you were on! How's work going?
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Quoting xcool:
lol matt :)


how's it going old timer? ;)jk
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Taco are you AKA Stormno by chance? Hmm


Stormsurge39,
All I know is that he is not me nor am I anyone else.... I still think I am the true and only "Taco" here....
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824. xcool
lol matt :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting tornadodude:


good call, no need to feed him anyway, he has already had plenty of..... I'll quit :P
LOL, good idea.
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Quoting tacoman:
GROTHAR I DIDNT REALIZE THIS WAS AND ENGLISH CLASS LMAO..


Oh! It is isn't. And it isn't even that I am disagreeing with you. I just got a little out of breath reading it. Perhaps, if I may make a suggestion it might help. Insert a few commas sometimes. This way people may not be so critical in their response. Your scenario is not necessarily that far off. It may just be in the presentation. Everyone here knows that I do not criticize in that way. Hope you took it in the manner in which it was intended.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Be careful. Don't feed the troll and get yourself banned. Happened to me twice.


good call, no need to feed him anyway, he has already had plenty of..... I'll quit :P
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
-Tampa, how is it looking? better that we thought, correct?
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Quoting njdevil:


no, I definately think it could become something, and once it clears Honduras it's in open water and has plenty of potential targets, it's just his scenario is insane.


Not to mention geography is a bit obscure
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This Place is funny at nite
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Quoting tornadodude:


like you would know what one was anyway
Be careful. Don't feed the troll and get yourself banned. Happened to me twice.
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crow and tortillas?
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EX 94L.

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The low is exactly where the NHC places it:

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Quoting tacoman:
GROTHAR I DIDNT REALIZE THIS WAS AND ENGLISH CLASS LMAO..
Taco are you AKA Stormno by chance? Hmm
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Quoting IKE:


Yes. Lovely time.

Phillie fanatic dancing on the Dodgers dugout.
Missed it, wife has chick flick on TV
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Quoting tacoman:
well we will see tampa what happens...its not a good scenario..someone is going to get a rude awakening from IDA...


I'm not saying your necessary wrong....i just think your jumping the gun a bit...Wait till something starts to develop then tell us where it is going would be a better thing to do. Right now only The Good MAN above would know that and even he would have to ask Mother Nature first.
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Quoting tacoman:
GROTHAR I DIDNT REALIZE THIS WAS AND ENGLISH CLASS LMAO..


like you would know what one was anyway
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting TampaSpin:
I'm certainly not agreeing with Tacoman but, i gotta say i don't like the changes that will be coming in the conditions about Friday....The Trough is starting to lift out and Shear should decrease and make conditions a little more favorable in the Western Caribbean area. To say this is a dangerous situation TacoMan is a bit of a stretch right now.......I do believe we for sure need to watch the Western Caribbean as its just ripe for something big to pop up.


no, I definately think it could become something, and once it clears Honduras it's in open water and has plenty of potential targets, it's just his scenario is insane.

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The low in the EPAC is forecast to dissipate with the Caribbean low remaining stationary. Those are the facts.

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807. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
GROTHAR I DIDNT REALIZE THIS WAS AND ENGLISH CLASS LMAO..
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Quoting Drakoen:


Your name makes me hungry.
watch out, they are full of dead bird.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22227
804. IKE
Quoting eyesontheweather:


Yes. Lovely time.

Phillie fanatic dancing on the Dodgers dugout.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:


He lost me on that last post. I wound up in Australia
Did you have a good trip?
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Quoting tacoman:
ike i didnt mean on a ne course it has to cross 25 degrees on its way out into the atlantic...i meant north 0f 23 if it moves dur north it cant penetrate 23 degrees north...the reason why it affects the bahams jamaica nad the caymans devil a hurricane has gale force winds outahead of it and if you are on the ne side thats the worse part of the storm so look at your map imagine a hurricane over jamaica moving nne to ne and tell me who is in its path..i cant explain it any better man...tacoman


Has anyone ever seen such a long run-on sentence? And no, there is not a comma after long to separate two adjectives.
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well we will see tampa what happens...its not a good scenario..someone is going to get a rude awakening from IDA...
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a hurricane going NE NNE from Jamaica isn't going anywhere near Cayman or Western Cuba.

nor the keys, nor western Florida, nor Eastern Florida for that matter.

has your forecast turned into a sideways U facing the other way now?

here's a map. you tell me what in the world your path here is....


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Quoting TampaSpin:
I'm certainly not agreeing with Tacoman but, i gotta say i don't like the changes that will be coming in the conditions about Friday....The Trough is starting to lift out and Shear should decrease and make conditions a little more favorable in the Western Caribbean area. To say this is a dangerous situation TacoMan is a bit of a stretch right now.......I do believe we for sure need to watch the Western Caribbean as its just ripe for something big to pop up.
Yes, and if you look close at the water vapor loop, the shear is slowing a little already.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22227
798. IKE
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Cuba, Bahamas and N Atalantic, Europe


He lost me on that last post. I wound up in Australia.

Congrats to the Phillies...back to the WS in 6 outs.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting leu2500:
Is there a full moon?

Yes. Good call.
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I'm certainly not agreeing with Tacoman but, i gotta say i don't like the changes that will be coming in the conditions about Friday....The Trough is starting to lift out and Shear should decrease and make conditions a little more favorable in the Western Caribbean area. To say this is a dangerous situation TacoMan is a bit of a stretch right now.......I do believe we for sure need to watch the Western Caribbean as its just ripe for something big to pop up.
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did tacoman really say "dur north"?

LOL post 787
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tacoman:
ike i didnt mean on a ne course it has to cross 25 degrees on its way out into the atlantic...i meant north 0f 23 if it moves dur north it cant penetrate 23 degrees north...the reason why it affects the bahams jamaica nad the caymans devil a hurricane has gale force winds outahead of it and if you are on the ne side thats the worse part of the storm so look at your map imagine a hurricane over jamaica moving nne to ne and tell me who is in its path..i cant explain it any better man...tacoman
Cuba, Bahamas and N Atalantic, Europe
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While everyone is talking X94L to death there is some good convection in the central Atlantic.Raining, thunder and lightning in Grand Cayman again.
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792. jipmg
Quoting Drakoen:


Small low level circulation near 11.5N 83W





I think its either just south of the convection, or it was absorbed into it
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Quoting Drakoen:


Small low level circulation near 11.5N 83W



Thank you.
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Quoting Patrap:
I kinda liked that last of mine,..LOL

Maybe 94L will give the ol blog a ramp up one mo time.

Interesting,but Im betting on it going "poof" as well.
Let 2009 slide into the books as a slow one.
That's my Wed wish.

Gnight all.


sleep tight pat.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Hey Patrap

I really liked it too still LMAO at cha

Taco :0)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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